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Now going back to Spain, I wonder if it's not more value in this
- Atlético top 4 for 1.25
- Atletico winner without Madrid/Barcelona 1.66
You're essentially betting on place 3 rather than place 3&4.
On paper, this looks like a perfect bet strengthening, instead of 25% you are aiming for 66% profit, which in itself is a big X - 2.64 (66/25).
But there's a huge risk of a repeat of last season's situation, when Atlético, having dropped out of the title race, completely abandoned La Liga and focused on the Champions League. The most striking example is this segment of games:
On April 8, Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona in the Champions League
with their main squadOn April 11, Atletico
loses to Sevilla (17th place before the game) playing
with its second teamOn April 14th, the return match in the Champions League against Barcelona
with the main squadApril 22nd
loses to Elche (18th place before the game) playing
with its second teamAtletico doesn't care about third place at all, they're cynically solving problems and redistributing resources, so despite the apparent similarity of the situation, the risk here is growing at the same rate (if not more) than the profit.
If this was a real competition for gold with Real and Barcelona actually missing, I would bet on Atletico 1.66 without hesitation, they have only missed out on this "title" twice in the last 15 years
