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Author Topic: Outrights 26/27 season for reference  (Read 528 times)
BRINIRHA
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August 04, 2026, 03:58:55 PM
 #41

If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35

It will be interesting enough but if you add some other odds like for the top scorers especially for Kane in the bundesliga and Mbappe in La Liga, I don't find the odds but if it does there will definitely be big enough to be added in the parlay.

For Serie A it will be the same as the EPL although it will look easy for the top 4 but the reality is it will be a little complicated just to be at Inter for a top 2 finish with odds of 1.35 this will also make the bet more solid I think.  3.35 odds added with Inter top 2 with odds of 1.35 can make this bigger especially if the parlay there is an additional boost that is always provided by the site when betting more than 5 bets in 1 parlay.

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August 04, 2026, 04:59:21 PM
 #42

This kind of bet is difficult besides who might win the premier league is still unknown despite the fact Arsenal has been giving signal yet nothing is unknown with Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool in the picture.
If I should bet the premier league winner probably I might go for Arsenal, while LaLiga is still very much complicated. Choosing between Barcelona and Real Madrid though the odds don’t have a real big gap reason why it’s difficult to know who’s winning the title like I said this kind of bet is all about risk, if the person is willing to take the risk then predicting base on previous season should be considered first following their strategy but, each pattern applied to achieve the best result is still not guarantee.

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KTChampions (OP)
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August 06, 2026, 12:07:38 PM
 #43



Meanwhile, the odds for Vinnie not joining Arsenal have skyrocketed to 95 cents. I could close my bet now and make a 42% profit, but I'll probably wait until the bet is finalized and get another 4,5% extra.
https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-vinicius-junior-transfer-20260612232836376/will-vinicius-junior-join-arsenal-20260612232836553
A very good result for a bet that was "long-term" but was actually resolved in just 5 days.
Incidentally, if we're talking about other long-term (but risky) bets now, I think the most relevant bets are on Arsenal not winning the title and Real Madrid winning. Arsenal and Barcelona are overvalued, in my opinion.

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August 06, 2026, 01:41:59 PM
 #44



Meanwhile, the odds for Vinnie not joining Arsenal have skyrocketed to 95 cents. I could close my bet now and make a 42% profit, but I'll probably wait until the bet is finalized and get another 4,5% extra.
https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-vinicius-junior-transfer-20260612232836376/will-vinicius-junior-join-arsenal-20260612232836553
A very good result for a bet that was "long-term" but was actually resolved in just 5 days.
Incidentally, if we're talking about other long-term (but risky) bets now, I think the most relevant bets are on Arsenal not winning the title and Real Madrid winning. Arsenal and Barcelona are overvalued, in my opinion.
Vini wont be joining Arsenal is a bet that's so easy because this is Real Madrid we are talking about. Arguably the biggest football team in history.

KTChampions, 42% profit is reasonable. Maybe you should reconsider if it gets to 50%. Close the bet, take the profit. that's what I would do if I were in your shoes.

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August 07, 2026, 07:32:53 PM
 #45

Meanwhile, the odds for Vinnie not joining Arsenal have skyrocketed to 95 cents. I could close my bet now and make a 42% profit, but I'll probably wait until the bet is finalized and get another 4,5% extra.
https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-vinicius-junior-transfer-20260612232836376/will-vinicius-junior-join-arsenal-20260612232836553
A very good result for a bet that was "long-term" but was actually resolved in just 5 days.
Incidentally, if we're talking about other long-term (but risky) bets now, I think the most relevant bets are on Arsenal not winning the title and Real Madrid winning. Arsenal and Barcelona are overvalued, in my opinion.
Vini wont be joining Arsenal is a bet that's so easy because this is Real Madrid we are talking about. Arguably the biggest football team in history.

KTChampions, 42% profit is reasonable. Maybe you should reconsider if it gets to 50%. Close the bet, take the profit. that's what I would do if I were in your shoes.



Still, full profit is better than partial  Wink
I might have closed the bet earlier if I didn't have the money and I could find an option where I could invest it more profitably, but I have liquidity, so even now at the level of 99.8 cents I will wait until everything closes on its own.
By the way, this win got me a little excited and I bought “daring” odds that Rodri will move to Real, and that Rodri will not move to Barcelona (two outcomes that slightly hedge the option that he might stay at City).
The market has turned against me for now, but with Barcelona's clownish offers (45 million haha) all is not lost.

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Jewan420
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August 07, 2026, 07:45:14 PM
 #46

Except for the English Premier League, the rest are fine, there is a high chance of winning there. But I will try to give advice on the Premier League without betting. Especially in the upcoming season, anything can happen, any team can make a comeback. We can see Liverpool make a comeback, Manchester City can also occupy the top spot and Manchester United also have a chance, Arsenal also have a big chance. We can even see the defending champion team being upset.
Anything can happen, the matter can be different for the top scorers. If Haaland is on the field, he has a good chance, but if he is out of this fight due to injury, the result will be different. Moreover, I think Atletico Madrid is a little overrated in La Liga, I see their chances of winning the title even smaller, they could have been given odds of 3.00 -4.00.











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blomen
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August 07, 2026, 08:13:16 PM
 #47

...

as soon as i saw this topic, another topic from early last season came to mind. take a look:

I don't bet on this market, but I enjoy watching how bookmakers' opinions change over time.
Quite often, I notice odds that seem strange (in my subjective opinion) appear from time to time, for example:

Top 6 Borussia Dortmund - 1.04

Top 3 Liverpool - 1.13

Top 3 Napoli 1.29

What would have to happen for Dortmund to miss out on the top six?! Which three (!) teams would Liverpool have to lose to in order to fall outside the top three? Considering that Liverpool is currently five points ahead of their nearest rival. Napoli also lead Serie A with a 100% record.
These bets literally look like bets against plane crashes or something similar.
If you place a multiple bet on these events, the profit over 8 months will be 51.6%  Shocked
Don't these quotes seem strange to you?

i just realized that you were the one who brought that topic up! anyway, at the start of last season, liverpool looked unstoppable, and their odds of finishing in the top 3 had dropped significantly, but then something no one expected happened, and liverpool slumped for weeks on end.

in short, don’t think that putting together a betting slip with the low-odds bets you see here will make it a “sure thing.” the money you’ve had sitting in the casino for months could slip through your fingers even in the final week.

 
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August 07, 2026, 08:38:59 PM
 #48

I'd like to collect here the outrights that caught my eye due to their perceived value, or that simply seemed odd to me. I'll check the results at the end of the season. Feel free to add your own suggestions.

Premier League - Top 6

Arsenal - 1.05

City - 1.14

Liverpool - 1.20

Manchester United - 1.25

Chelsea - 1.33

This is the Premier League, anything can happen, but even in a disastrous season, reigning champions Liverpool couldn't fall out of the top 5. I think the top three spots are free and reliable boosts.

Top Scorers

Haaland - 1.66

Isak (rat) - 10.00

Thiago - 11.00

Watkins - 15.00

Haaland hasn't finished as a top scorer just once since joining the Premier League. Over the last 10 years, besides Haaland, only Salah (twice) and Kane (twice) have shown efficiency that is absolutely average for Haaland (around 30 goals). Easy bet on Haaland.

Bundesliga - Winner

Bayern Munich - 1.16

No comments  Grin

Ligue 1 - Winner

PSG - 1.16

No comments  Grin

LaLiga - Top 4

Barcelona - 1.02

Real Madrid - 1.03

Atlético Madrid - 1.25

The last time Atletico were outside the top four was in 2011, 15 years ago.

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661
If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35

I'll add new options later when the markets for the top 4/top 6 Serie A and Bundesliga appear.

If I were to place a bet at the start of the season, the only odds I would take are those for Haaland to be the top scorer. The odds offered for Arsenal to win the Premier League are very low; it’s not worth the risk.
If I were to place an accumulator bet, I would include Bayern Munich and PSG winning their respective leagues. I would steer clear of the other title contenders.


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Today at 08:00:05 AM
 #49

I don't bet on this market, but I enjoy watching how bookmakers' opinions change over time.
Quite often, I notice odds that seem strange (in my subjective opinion) appear from time to time, for example:

Top 6 Borussia Dortmund - 1.04

Top 3 Liverpool - 1.13

i just realized that you were the one who brought that topic up! anyway, at the start of last season, liverpool looked unstoppable, and their odds of finishing in the top 3 had dropped significantly, but then something no one expected happened, and liverpool slumped for weeks on end.

in short, don’t think that putting together a betting slip with the low-odds bets you see here will make it a “sure thing.” the money you’ve had sitting in the casino for months could slip through your fingers even in the final week.

You haven't discovered America, everyone knows (I've even experienced this in practice many times) that you can lose a bet even with odds of 1.01 or similar. What happened to Liverpool last season was extraordinary. As a reminder, I wrote that post on September 23rd, and at that point, the Premier League standings were as follows:

Liverpool         - 15
Arsenal           - 10
Tottenham      - 10
Bournemouth  - 10

It would have been extremely strange to assume that the current champion (who had carried out a major transfer campaign) would fail so badly, but nevertheless it happened.
Last season, I showed too few interesting outcomes and didn't place any bets. This season, I've significantly expanded my selection and placed some money, so we'll see how it goes. So far, it's been a good start, thanks to Vinny.

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..PLAY NOW..
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Today at 09:00:04 AM
 #50

If I were going to place a huge bet, I would back Bayern Munich to win the title at odds of 1.16.
After all, there isn't a single team in the Bundesliga that can really challenge Bayern. In my opinion, the odds should have been 1.06.
Arsenal has been given odds of 1.05; even at 1.50, that would be a huge risk. There are so many title contenders in the Premier League, whereas the situation in the Bundesliga is completely different. Bayern Munich has won the championship 15 times in the last 20 years. Based on these statistics, 1.16 is an attractive price.

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