Strong Hands are Holding, are we set for the Button?

[Bitcoin-Forever]

Are the strong hands holding while the weak ones are selling at a loss? Is this the actual scenario?

Obviously, not everyone will be holding at the same time; not every investor will be selling. This is why we have both the giant holders who are whales/Institutional investors, and we also have the small-scale investors or individuals.

The early adopters of Bitcoin are still holding their assets to this time will not selling, while the weak investors are selling at a loss, not being able to afford holding for a longer period of time. Now, if the same holders have to continue in this process without selling and eventually imagine a 30-day change, does it signify we are already going to experience the bottom?


https://x.com/i/status/2082535180770725903

[Dave1]

It's very hard to say whether we see the bottom or not, so far from $126k to $57k, it's about -55%. But if we compare it to previous bear market,

2022 - from $69k to $15k that's about 77%.

Although if we have to observed, each bear market is very different and as time goes by, we might have matured as it become less severe in terms of percentage.

However, we can't say that 55% might be the number for this year, or 57k is the bottom. And if we look again at the historical logs, the final and the lowest low could be seen in Q4 2026.

[Bitcoin-Forever]

You are right, each bear market do have a unique way of presenting the market that may be slightly different from the previous ones, just as from what you have explained above, it is more likely we have achieve this and it will be that more is to come over the time, but one thing I am more convinced about is regarding the bear market, which is not ending now, this shows that there's high probability of having something still below $57,000 but mostly not below $50,000 before we completely exited.

[hugeblack]

The chart can be interpreted differently, as it may indicate that there is no longer significant buying of Bitcoin, resulting in a negative overall supply change, which was the case before the start of this year. it targets the last year, and it is difficult to make accurate assumptions based on a supply chart for only one year.

[Mrbluntzy]

The strong hands that are holding are pepple that have deep knowledge of Bitcoin, they know that another Bitcoin halving is gradually approaching and Bitcoin will experience a new all time high, so they are going to hold till next bull run and still buy more this period as the price is still within a good discount price. The investors that are considered weak hands could actually have good reasons why they want to sell,  it could have been because they have personal needs for the money or just the fear that the price will bottom more and they can not endure the dip anymore.

[adultcrypto]

MicroStrategy use to be the strong hands we all emulate they seem to have lost that title when they began their sell campaign even though also made some purchases. Furthermore, since the market is relatively down, we cannot be so excited to say that strong hands are holding. However, we can only encourage as many retails as we can to continue to hold as that is the best thing to do under the prevailing market condition. It is even more rewarding to seize the opportunity of this great discount to accumulate more bitcoin as those new purchases will not take long to yield profits.

[Ruttoshi]

Nobody knows what the bottom price will be and from my experience the last bear market in 2022, the bottom was in November. This time it can happen before or after November which means that the price will still dip below $57k.

I feel this is the best time to DCA and forget about what the chart is showing because if the bear market is over, you wouldn't get bitcoin at a cheap price like this.

[sotelorene]

You are right, each bear market do have a unique way of presenting the market that may be slightly different from the previous ones, just as from what you have explained above, it is more likely we have achieve this and it will be that more is to come over the time, but one thing I am more convinced about is regarding the bear market, which is not ending now, this shows that there's high probability of having something still below $57,000 but mostly not below $50,000 before we completely exited.

We can not tell if the bear season is going to end or not so what we should be doing now as an investor is to keep accumulating Bitcoin instead of dancing or playing around and for traders they should either keep predicting when to buy or do what they knows what to do best which is short term goal. I do not get what you meant by " mostly not below $50k before we completely exited" whether Bitcoin go below $50k or not I will still keep my hope and fate high and strong.

[Asiska02]

Nobody knows what the bottom price will be and from my experience the last bear market in 2022, the bottom was in November. This time it can happen before or after November which means that the price will still dip below $57k.

Going by the percentage fall in the market in the bear market of 2022, the market will record more fall than the bottom being $57K. The market is still looking optimistic but the bear market can’t be neglected, it’ll definitely come and happen. This means bothering ourselves with the prices is not a thing of concern now, focusing more on how to accumulate more profit in the long run is what is most important.

I feel this is the best time to DCA and forget about what the chart is showing because if the bear market is over, you wouldn't get bitcoin at a cheap price like this.

People want the price to go lower than this, not knowing that no one can tell what the bottom will be and just guessing from past will be the more closer pick. So taking advantage and using the DCA will help you in accumulation in times like this.

[aoluain]

At this stage in the Bitcoin cycle the strong hands have remained and pretty much all the
weak hands have already sold and that in a way is why the market remains in a sideways
movement.

There way still be a mini shake up yet to happen if the market dips below $60k and some
last ditch weak hands get shaken out from fear and the strong hands take advantage

[Callido]

The early adopters of Bitcoin are still holding their assets to this time will not selling, while the weak investors are selling at a loss, not being able to afford holding for a longer period of time. Now, if the same holders have to continue in this process without selling and eventually imagine a 30-day change, does it signify we are already going to experience the bottom?

How many early adopters are still holding till now, i think we have fewer of them, less in number than the new investors trooping into the market. Weak hands are always going to sell early, strong hands can also sell, but not at this price, not when they haven't made good profits from their portfolio, any plans of selling can wait till Bitcoin hits a new all time high, until then, keep holding.

[DPHOR]

The major reasons why some people are selling at lost is as a reason of impatient because whenever they don't have alternatives plans before jumping into trading could affect them seriously, that is why it is said to have backup food or cushion fund saved just to serve it's purpose. Of course, those who understand what the asset they are investigating on would know that it's important to hold for specific duration of time and years but those who doesn't know where the market is driving to may possibly dump to secure their capital first.

[Orpichukwu]

Nobody knows what the bottom price will be and from my experience the last bear market in 2022, the bottom was in November. This time it can happen before or after November which means that the price will still dip below $57k.

You said the price will still dip below $57k, which is a must to happen before the end of the bear market, while I expect the worst from now till the end of the year; there is still no assurance, on the other hand, that the bear won’t cross to 2027. We might as well not have seen the lowest the market can go yet this year, but I just can’t make a statement like it’s guaranteed.

[tabas]

I've been one of those weak holders before and thought that the market when it goes down, I had to sell. But experience had taught me that it's okay not to do anything when the market is down and the better decision is to buy if I can afford to. I think the weak ones lately are those who are inexperienced holding it. They're experiencing the same precedent that we've been through before.

Now, if the same holders have to continue in this process without selling and eventually imagine a 30-day change, does it signify we are already going to experience the bottom?

The answer depends on how much volume overall will be contributed to that change. If there's a strong selling pressure then we'd see a drop to it. But looks like there's not that big pressure of selling and the move of what bitcoin does lately is due to the other market's drop and influence like in US stocks.

[Fiatless]

At this stage in the Bitcoin cycle the strong hands have remained and pretty much all the
weak hands have already sold and that in a way is why the market remains in a sideways
movement.

There way still be a mini shake up yet to happen if the market dips below $60k and some
last ditch weak hands get shaken out from fear and the strong hands take advantage

They should keep selling so that there will be more discounted Bitcoin to accumulate. One of the identities of these weak hands is that they become interested in Bitcoin during the bull run hype. I recall that social media was filled with topics about investing in crypto during the bull market. Now, such hype has dropped drastically as these weak hands are scared of investing, and some are selling off. I don't know how long it would take people to know that the best time to buy is now.

[danherbias07]

I understand those retail investors with weak hands. It's a scary market, and that's why they will sell if they have to or if they feel like their investment is in danger. I've been there, have done my mistakes selling Bitcoin at an early stage, but I learned my lesson.

When it comes to the long-term holder, I hope they are blessed with more patience. It's tough to be in that position while looking at the market and seeing the Bitcoin value go down. They are brave to keep on holding, and I know there's a reason behind it. Some want to see this through to the end, and I do wish it will be profitable.

[Bitcoin-Forever]

Nobody knows what the bottom price will be and from my experience the last bear market in 2022, the bottom was in November. This time it can happen before or after November which means that the price will still dip below $57k.

You said the price will still dip below $57k, which is a must to happen before the end of the bear market, while I expect the worst from now till the end of the year; there is still no assurance, on the other hand, that the bear won’t cross to 2027. We might as well not have seen the lowest the market can go yet this year, but I just can’t make a statement like it’s guaranteed.

Most likely we are not going to have below $50,000 this bear season, so we should erase it from our mentality that they won't be further fall, but there is the only going to be a limit to how far it could go, if you follow up with the discussion over this thread and what others have suggested as well, you can discover that comparing other previous years market fall with what we are expected this season could only place a minor difference from the previous ones in terms of percentage fall in the bear season.

[pooya87]

Strong hands hold.
Weak hands sell.
Wise hands buy the dip.


After all this IS a discount. Price is under the intrinsic value and despite what the market sentiment may look like at times, the value is higher and price should catch up. That means the current price and any possible lower price is a great discount and an excellent opportunity to purchase some coins.
Imagine this is late 2017 (September) and price has crashed from $5k down to $2.5k providing a great discount for buyers some of whom are complaining that price ain't gonna go up ever again

In other words, don't worry about the bottom too much. Today nobody cares about $2.5k having been the bottom or not, now that price is 2400% higher.

[Pandu Geddon]

There way still be a mini shake up yet to happen if the market dips below $60k and some
last ditch weak hands get shaken out from fear and the strong hands take advantage

Bitcoin is now back to $63k, hopefully it doesn’t drop below $60k. Because it’s true that if that happens, there will be a situation where holders panic due to the price drop and try to get back in at a lower price.
But in a market situation like this, when some investors sell out of panic and take a loss, there will be other investors coming in and ready to hold until the next bull cycle.

[Swordsoffreedom]

You are right, each bear market do have a unique way of presenting the market that may be slightly different from the previous ones, just as from what you have explained above, it is more likely we have achieve this and it will be that more is to come over the time, but one thing I am more convinced about is regarding the bear market, which is not ending now, this shows that there's high probability of having something still below $57,000 but mostly not below $50,000 before we completely exited.

As long as the bear market isn't over, we shouldn't rule out any possibility, including Bitcoin falling below $57k or even $50k. Especially when the market is facing additional pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical factor, not just factor within the crypto market itself.

The fact that Bitcoin has already fallen sharply doesn't mean it can't fall further. Anything can happen, and we shouldn't be complacent. Instead, being prepared for every possible scenario is what we should be doing.