So far no one has claimed it, but I wouldn't be surprised if everyone came back to Yamal. After a year in which he won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, it makes sense too. Not to mention he was runner-up the last time behind Dembélé. But, that's not a foregone conclusion. This year, it's really up for grabs, imo. Rodri isn't leaving either: his midfield control throughout the tournament was quite an MVP-level performance to say the least. And although Real Madrid have had a few bumps and bruises this season, Mbappé is now the all-time top scorer in 2026 World Cup history. That's not nothing.
I don't feel like the Ballon d'Or would be given to Yamal. He has been clearly showing that he supports Palestine. He even waved its flag after Barcelona became the La Liga champions.
While there are so many countries which are in business relationship with Israel I think this would also have an affect on to whom this prize will be awarded...
But bookmakers still show him as the 2nd favourite for it. So let's see if I'll be proven wrong.
I think you're just making something up about the politics angle. Actually the numbers have changed from what you are saying, once Spain have won the World Cup some of the bookies (Sky Sports, bet365) had Yamal as the second preference and now it is the outright favourite. He's only behind Kane (27% vs 41%) again on Polymarket and that's rising rapidly since Spain made the final.
In terms of Palestine swaying voters, Ballon d'Or never did swing anytime and in any direction. Don't be fooled by the stats, because it was just 28 goal contributions in Barca's title run, and he out-dribbled Messi at the World Cup. This is what voters consider, not a flag on the pitch.
But bookies have been known to mess up once in a while, so we'll see how it goes, anyway! 😄