Sorry everyone, Bitcoin is headed down to $43,500: Michael Terpin

[RGBTC]

Well, let's just put that scenario into perspective and set a big bottom-shoot plan to fill our pockets on the spot market. Bitcoin rarely gives us a discount of more than 70%, especially if it lasts for a long time.

and the 'uncertainty' surrounding Microstrategy and its buy/sell plans for its Bitcoin

I heard Strategy quietly moved some Bitcoin to a new wallet. It smells like another mini sell-off is coming, like last month. https://www.kucoin.com/id/square/post/content_6a706d3790aed2000704f02f

[tabas]

This is part of this discussion about Michael Terpin the topic.

What do you think about his prediction? I still think bitcoin is not going below $50000.

Both of you are entitled to your predictions. No one can invalidate that if that's an opinion or prediction because it's bitcoin itself that will prove on who's the right one. But is there something for the winner who's got an accurate prediction? there's nothing, no reward or whatsoever. What counts here is that the market situation depends on how you look at it. These predictions should barely be taken if you're for the long term. Now, that's the question. Are you affected with whoever predicts the market with low prices? I guess that most of us who's got experience of this roller coaster ride could careless.

[BitMaxz]

Everything is possible; no one can exactly predict what will be the bottom price. All predictions out there, if there is no basis and analysis, we don't know if they are possible.
Technical analysis only helps us analyze previous data and use it to look for probabilities. In TA you don't stick to only one analysis; having multiple perspectives on the market will help in predicting possible scenarios. We are not guessing; we do analysis using the old data since the market actually reacting to those possible support and resistance levels.

If that guy is just guessing that the price would drop below $50k without a technical analysis, it's possible that guy is creating confusion for others to panic sell.
Remember news can also be manipulated; having simple news that the price would drop at that price attracts fear, or simply a tweet by Elon attracts greed.
This is a battle of big players, whales and big institutions, but us retail traders can't fight them. That is why we only seek for a trending market and bias. I'm not against them because I'm just a small retail trader; anything fundamentally can be manipulated. That is why the only thing that I watch carefully is about interest rates and other high-impact events listed on the Forex calendar rather than following news.

[Numan467]

$43,500 call is not something to be laughed at, however, when looking at Terpin's record this cycle. He correctly guessed the ATH timing in his book, Bitcoin Supercycle, and he called the bubble popping, and his February warning that $40s was bottom while people were saying $80k was the bottom, aged pretty well.
But his prediction keeps changing, February he was saying $40s, April he was saying $57k October bottom, and now he is saying $43,500. Direction remains the same but the number continues to change, and that is how you know nobody really knows.
But comparison for 2019 is fair. Bitcoin went from $3,200 to $14,000 then back to $6,500 before the real run. The "no true giving up yet" argument for this cycle is fair as we have yet to see the panic selling that usually goes with cycle bottoms. I think Bollinger $55k floor is more likely than $43k, but not out of the question if Friday jobs data is hot.

[Outhue]

Honestly I do believe that going under 60k is very possible but that doesn't mean you should 100% depend on it happening, if it doesn't then you will miss the bottom, the only option left will be to FOMO when the price start going higher, this is why my own method is to keep replying capital when I can, 60k BTC is cheap but not a greater opportunity compare to if we go down to 48k but why not just keep a cash aside for that price? I'm into Bitcoin with 70% of my money already, and the 30% left is for the possibility of 48k coming to life.

[danherbias07]

When I saw $59k, I was definitely sure that it would go all the way down to the max bottom. Maybe $45k. But when it resisted that number and didn't dip more, that's when I told myself I just witnessed the bottom, which is $59k. There's a chance there's no more going down further than that. It's been a month now, and it still won't go below that.

Now, if he is thinking that $45k or even below that is the bottom, I think it is possible during those times that it went below $60k. Right now, it's difficult to see it happen. The resistance is strong. All I could see is the way back up, but we don't know when it could happen.

[Tonimez]

Honestly I do believe that going under 60k is very possible but that doesn't mean you should 100% depend on it happening, if it doesn't then you will miss the bottom, the only option left will be to FOMO when the price start going higher, this is why my own method is to keep replying capital when I can, 60k BTC is cheap but not a greater opportunity compare to if we go down to 48k but why not just keep a cash aside for that price? I'm into Bitcoin with 70% of my money already, and the 30% left is for the possibility of 48k coming to life.

Nice approach and that settles the chances of missing out any buy opportunities. Bitcoin has been so unpredictable lately, hovering around the $62 to 64k area and $65k about a week back. This resistance has lasted for long but I don't see bitcoin as going behind the $43,500 or even the $48k you mentioned.  What if bitcoin heads up to around the $70k area or more and resists around that area, your 30% gets short-changed except you decide never to introduce such into bitcoin anymore. We may not have reached the bottom yet, but going below $50k won't be a good wish. It is better to buy as much as you can now because $64k is still cheap to buy.

[Dave1]

When I saw $59k, I was definitely sure that it would go all the way down to the max bottom. Maybe $45k. But when it resisted that number and didn't dip more, that's when I told myself I just witnessed the bottom, which is $59k. There's a chance there's no more going down further than that. It's been a month now, and it still won't go below that.

For me I thought that bottom will be $55k and no lower than that.

As for the prediction, I hope that nobody forgets about S2F, a model that it predicted that Bitcoin will be $100,000 in 2021? But what happened? We didn't and the rest is history as they say. With that, it's really hard to take everything what this so called experts have been saying.

It's going to be a hit-or-miss prediction. If they hit, then good, but it's going to be very hard for them if their prediction is not going to happen, unless Bitcoin enthusiast are going to give them a free pass for their "failed prediction".

[Die_empty]

The whole article feels like an advertisement of this person and his venture capital firm. I'm very well aware Cointelegraph does such deals. The clickbait name was probably chosen by them, as they, as journalists, know their business.

Also I see too much emphasise on who he is, they list his past successful investments in crypto, his connections to big projects etc etc. It's like they are trying to justify him even appearing on there.
 
Whether he will be right or wrong - doesn't matter. His social media pages will gain followers and his VC firm's site will get some google searches.

Everyone can make predictions based on their level of understanding. Michael Terpin is free to speculate about the future price of Bitcoin. It might turn out correct or fail like many we have seen over time. It is normal for people to use Bitcoin to gain attention. 

But he made some remarks that I find informative. He stated that the Bitcoin tradition four-year cycle still exists. Institutional investors might have changed market patterns, but the cycle is still valid. I am also in the school of thought that, regardless of these changes, I still believe in the cycle. His comments about avoiding centralized platforms and buying Bitcoin directly without middlemen are also valid.