Sorry everyone, Bitcoin is headed down to $43,500: Michael Terpin

[RGBTC]

Well, let's just put that scenario into perspective and set a big bottom-shoot plan to fill our pockets on the spot market. Bitcoin rarely gives us a discount of more than 70%, especially if it lasts for a long time.

and the 'uncertainty' surrounding Microstrategy and its buy/sell plans for its Bitcoin

I heard Strategy quietly moved some Bitcoin to a new wallet. It smells like another mini sell-off is coming, like last month. https://www.kucoin.com/id/square/post/content_6a706d3790aed2000704f02f

[tabas]

This is part of this discussion about Michael Terpin the topic.

What do you think about his prediction? I still think bitcoin is not going below $50000.

Both of you are entitled to your predictions. No one can invalidate that if that's an opinion or prediction because it's bitcoin itself that will prove on who's the right one. But is there something for the winner who's got an accurate prediction? there's nothing, no reward or whatsoever. What counts here is that the market situation depends on how you look at it. These predictions should barely be taken if you're for the long term. Now, that's the question. Are you affected with whoever predicts the market with low prices? I guess that most of us who's got experience of this roller coaster ride could careless.

[BitMaxz]

Everything is possible; no one can exactly predict what will be the bottom price. All predictions out there, if there is no basis and analysis, we don't know if they are possible.
Technical analysis only helps us analyze previous data and use it to look for probabilities. In TA you don't stick to only one analysis; having multiple perspectives on the market will help in predicting possible scenarios. We are not guessing; we do analysis using the old data since the market actually reacting to those possible support and resistance levels.

If that guy is just guessing that the price would drop below $50k without a technical analysis, it's possible that guy is creating confusion for others to panic sell.
Remember news can also be manipulated; having simple news that the price would drop at that price attracts fear, or simply a tweet by Elon attracts greed.
This is a battle of big players, whales and big institutions, but us retail traders can't fight them. That is why we only seek for a trending market and bias. I'm not against them because I'm just a small retail trader; anything fundamentally can be manipulated. That is why the only thing that I watch carefully is about interest rates and other high-impact events listed on the Forex calendar rather than following news.

[Numan467]

$43,500 call is not something to be laughed at, however, when looking at Terpin's record this cycle. He correctly guessed the ATH timing in his book, Bitcoin Supercycle, and he called the bubble popping, and his February warning that $40s was bottom while people were saying $80k was the bottom, aged pretty well.
But his prediction keeps changing, February he was saying $40s, April he was saying $57k October bottom, and now he is saying $43,500. Direction remains the same but the number continues to change, and that is how you know nobody really knows.
But comparison for 2019 is fair. Bitcoin went from $3,200 to $14,000 then back to $6,500 before the real run. The "no true giving up yet" argument for this cycle is fair as we have yet to see the panic selling that usually goes with cycle bottoms. I think Bollinger $55k floor is more likely than $43k, but not out of the question if Friday jobs data is hot.

[Outhue]

Honestly I do believe that going under 60k is very possible but that doesn't mean you should 100% depend on it happening, if it doesn't then you will miss the bottom, the only option left will be to FOMO when the price start going higher, this is why my own method is to keep replying capital when I can, 60k BTC is cheap but not a greater opportunity compare to if we go down to 48k but why not just keep a cash aside for that price? I'm into Bitcoin with 70% of my money already, and the 30% left is for the possibility of 48k coming to life.

[danherbias07]

When I saw $59k, I was definitely sure that it would go all the way down to the max bottom. Maybe $45k. But when it resisted that number and didn't dip more, that's when I told myself I just witnessed the bottom, which is $59k. There's a chance there's no more going down further than that. It's been a month now, and it still won't go below that.

Now, if he is thinking that $45k or even below that is the bottom, I think it is possible during those times that it went below $60k. Right now, it's difficult to see it happen. The resistance is strong. All I could see is the way back up, but we don't know when it could happen.

[Tonimez]

Honestly I do believe that going under 60k is very possible but that doesn't mean you should 100% depend on it happening, if it doesn't then you will miss the bottom, the only option left will be to FOMO when the price start going higher, this is why my own method is to keep replying capital when I can, 60k BTC is cheap but not a greater opportunity compare to if we go down to 48k but why not just keep a cash aside for that price? I'm into Bitcoin with 70% of my money already, and the 30% left is for the possibility of 48k coming to life.

Nice approach and that settles the chances of missing out any buy opportunities. Bitcoin has been so unpredictable lately, hovering around the $62 to 64k area and $65k about a week back. This resistance has lasted for long but I don't see bitcoin as going behind the $43,500 or even the $48k you mentioned.  What if bitcoin heads up to around the $70k area or more and resists around that area, your 30% gets short-changed except you decide never to introduce such into bitcoin anymore. We may not have reached the bottom yet, but going below $50k won't be a good wish. It is better to buy as much as you can now because $64k is still cheap to buy.

[Dave1]

When I saw $59k, I was definitely sure that it would go all the way down to the max bottom. Maybe $45k. But when it resisted that number and didn't dip more, that's when I told myself I just witnessed the bottom, which is $59k. There's a chance there's no more going down further than that. It's been a month now, and it still won't go below that.

For me I thought that bottom will be $55k and no lower than that.

As for the prediction, I hope that nobody forgets about S2F, a model that it predicted that Bitcoin will be $100,000 in 2021? But what happened? We didn't and the rest is history as they say. With that, it's really hard to take everything what this so called experts have been saying.

It's going to be a hit-or-miss prediction. If they hit, then good, but it's going to be very hard for them if their prediction is not going to happen, unless Bitcoin enthusiast are going to give them a free pass for their "failed prediction".

[Die_empty]

The whole article feels like an advertisement of this person and his venture capital firm. I'm very well aware Cointelegraph does such deals. The clickbait name was probably chosen by them, as they, as journalists, know their business.

Also I see too much emphasise on who he is, they list his past successful investments in crypto, his connections to big projects etc etc. It's like they are trying to justify him even appearing on there.
 
Whether he will be right or wrong - doesn't matter. His social media pages will gain followers and his VC firm's site will get some google searches.

Everyone can make predictions based on their level of understanding. Michael Terpin is free to speculate about the future price of Bitcoin. It might turn out correct or fail like many we have seen over time. It is normal for people to use Bitcoin to gain attention. 

But he made some remarks that I find informative. He stated that the Bitcoin tradition four-year cycle still exists. Institutional investors might have changed market patterns, but the cycle is still valid. I am also in the school of thought that, regardless of these changes, I still believe in the cycle. His comments about avoiding centralized platforms and buying Bitcoin directly without middlemen are also valid. 

[savetheFORUM]

Not impossible. I am not going to act as if I know what Bitcoin will do; nobody does, not Terpin, not me, not you. Nobody knows what is going to happen; we have predictions. And we have seen Bitcoin move up a lot and move down a lot; both are quite possible. In this case, I think it is very possible that we end up with something that would not be impossible to handle.

I think we should be considering how this could be something that we can definitely reach, to a point where it can be done very well. I think if you look carefully enough, in all of the previous bear runs, we reached nearly 80% down from the top, and if you look at 125k as our all-time high for now, that means we are going to go under 40k for the 80% to happen, and that means 43.5k is not really that impossible to happen. Of course it is not going to be easy to get to that level; of course it takes a while to reach that low, but it is a possibility, and we could be seeing that. Or maybe we won't; there is no guarantee of anything. I am just saying that this is one of the possibilities.

[Pandu Geddon]

Now, if he is thinking that $45k or even below that is the bottom, I think it is possible during those times that it went below $60k. Right now, it's difficult to see it happen. The resistance is strong. All I could see is the way back up, but we don't know when it could happen.

For the end of this year, I also believe that we will see a tendency for Bitcoin prices to move up. The price movement might be slower, and a decline is also possible. But hitting such a low price was never in my mind. I think after the recent downward phase, everyone is thinking positively about the upward movement.

[Zoomic]

Bitcoin can move in the most unpredictable directions so I will not say that it's totally impossible that we might experience a dump that can take the price to $43k but if you ask me, I don't see it dropping below $50k unless something very unexpected shakes the market.

Maybe unpopular opinion, but am the only one who feel some of these popular names sometimes try to test how much influence they wield in the market?

Unprovoked, sometimes they throw out bold predictions thereby causing people to panic sell or FOMO buy and when they see that people are reacting like they predicted, they position themselves so they can make so much profits from the reactions.

That's why I read some of these headlines and treat them as mere speculations rather than something to base my decisions on.

[Pandorak]

What do you think about his prediction? I still think bitcoin is not going below $50000.

When bitcoin was at $7000 in the past, some people thought it will not fall below $5000, but after bitcoin increased to $8000, it later fall and there was a time it fall sharply below $3900. Some people can think this kind of scenario can happen again, but bitcoin is not volatile like those days.

One thing i can say is that opportunities are always there. A price range of $50k–$40k is not impossible for Bitcoin to reach in this bear market. Bitcoin may currently be stuck at $65k, but it previously touched $58k, perhaps the current rise is merely a retracement on the lower time frames, while on the higher time frames, the trend is clearly still bearish.

Why don’t i rule out Bitcoin falling to $43,500.
Based on my analysis using Price Action, POI, Fibonacci, etc., after breaking out of the key level at $60k, Bitcoin has actually lost its footing. The rally is only temporary before the price drops again to test the next support level at $52k, and if a breakout occurs with a candle close at the high time frame, welcome $43k.

However, once again, this is merely speculation based on technical analysis.

[adultcrypto]

A lot of bitcoin whales announcing their plan sell ahead of time seems to me like there is a plan to bring the price of bitcoin down, probably to kick out a lot of retails who still control large chunk of bitcoin. These big players may be deliberately spreading fears and uncertainties to make people panic and sell so that they can scoop those bitcoins at lower prices. I will just  encourage everyone to hold their bitcoin tight and not give in to fear and panic.

[GeorgeJohn]

A lot of bitcoin whales announcing their plan sell ahead of time seems to me like there is a plan to bring the price of bitcoin down,

I will advice you not to panic and sell your bitcoin because of speculations on the Internet can put fear to crypto holders especially those ones who's afraid of holding bitcoin for long-term..if you have determination on bitcoin, you can hold until when you're determine to sell...

probably to kick out a lot of retails who still control large chunk of bitcoin. These big players may be deliberately spreading fears and uncertainties to make people panic and sell so that they can scoop those bitcoins at lower prices. I will just  encourage everyone to hold their bitcoin tight and not give in to fear and panic.

That's why you don't need to welcome all information about bitcoin price online, theirs every tendency that some holders wants to accumulate their bitcoin by putting fears to mini holders so that they will sell off their bitcoin...the thing is that every investors have targets in bitcoin, like me, i don't encourage anyone to sell off their bitcoin because of bearish season, because i know that the price of Bitcoin fluctuate and it can retrace at anytime..