⚽ Vega.bet ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2026/2027

[arallmuus]

at least judging by the bookmakers' odds: Bayern looks unconvincing, yet the most likely scoreline against Union is 4–0  

@KTC my odds from a book when I checked this morning actually give 5-1 as the most likely scoreline, now it's 4-0 or 3-0 (depending on if you're looking at handicaps or exact score).

This is new for me, How do you guys get the magic number for the most likely scoreline on bookies though? Im a dummy when it comes to this kind of things and I guess its involving complex math or something?

I normally just pull out the H2H and check their statistic on the league table like total goal scored. Well now that really explain why I sucks on score prediction

-betslip

I was burned on that particular Al Nassr game as well  

[pawel7777]

Every single one of us predicted Bayern's high win by at least a 3-goal margin, yet all of us seemed to underestimate them.
Last season, Bayern broke their own old record of number of league goals scored in one season. They made it to an incredible 122 goals, which gives almost 3.6 goals per game. Right now, after 4 rounds, their average is 3.5.
I don't think they will do as well as last year, but I still expect them to go into triple digits by the end of the season. But predicting the exact score of their games is not going to be easy.

[mv1986]

Every single one of us predicted Bayern's high win by at least a 3-goal margin, yet all of us seemed to underestimate them.
Last season, Bayern broke their own old record of number of league goals scored in one season. They made it to an incredible 122 goals, which gives almost 3.6 goals per game. Right now, after 4 rounds, their average is 3.5.
I don't think they will do as well as last year, but I still expect them to go into triple digits by the end of the season. But predicting the exact score of their games is not going to be easy.

Triple digits for sure, but I agree that they'll probably not break the record. Last season they got started with far more goals in the first three games if I remember correctly. Didn't they kick off the season with two goal parties in the first two games? The Schalke game pulls down the average obviously.

If Olise keeps going like this, I think Real Madrid will give it a try next season to buy him. Bayern wants to play it safe as it seems and they want to extend his contract already, but I can imagine that this will make him the best paid player in the Bundesliga. Right now he is making around €13 million and if you compare that to other players, it's actually not that much.

Musiala is making €25 million, double the salary of Olise and I doubt he would accept anything less than that amount. He is definitely not only half as good!

[slaman29]

Damn, first Barca got 7 goals now Bayern did the same. Kane did 100 goals in 98 games.

Is Germany really a farmers league as some people are saying? Or is Bayern just simply too good.

If so maybe I really have to look at their manager and assess what he did right.

[KTChampions]

at least judging by the bookmakers' odds: Bayern looks unconvincing, yet the most likely scoreline against Union is 4–0  

@KTC my odds from a book when I checked this morning actually give 5-1 as the most likely scoreline, now it's 4-0 or 3-0 (depending on if you're looking at handicaps or exact score).

This is new for me, How do you guys get the magic number for the most likely scoreline on bookies though? Im a dummy when it comes to this kind of things and I guess its involving complex math or something?
~

Well... you’ve surprised me. Just look at the "Correct Score" market, the odds there provide data you can draw conclusions from. You can glean similar information from the handicap and BTTS markets, but why rely on indirect data when direct data is available? Mind you, though, those odds aren't really suitable for cash bets.

Every single one of us predicted Bayern's high win by at least a 3-goal margin, yet all of us seemed to underestimate them.
Last season, Bayern broke their own old record of number of league goals scored in one season. They made it to an incredible 122 goals, which gives almost 3.6 goals per game. Right now, after 4 rounds, their average is 3.5.
I don't think they will do as well as last year, but I still expect them to go into triple digits by the end of the season. But predicting the exact score of their games is not going to be easy.

It seems to me that the previous game where Bayern scored zero goals was too much of an outlier to factor in right now, over the long run, its impact will wash out. So, I would suggest that the question of breaking the record is far from settled, Bayern is once again displaying incredible efficiency. Right now, I’d be more inclined to wonder whether they can replicate the unbeaten season Leverkusen achieved.

[buwaytress]

Back in the hunt! Quite a few exact scores (particularly proud of the 3-2 Werder smackdown), was also close to getting the only Hamburg win, but Slam got that too (come on, man!).

Too bad we can't see each other's pick before kickoffs... would be nice to see if we've any hope of catching up in the GW.

This is new for me, How do you guys get the magic number for the most likely scoreline on bookies though? Im a dummy when it comes to this kind of things and I guess its involving complex math or something?
~

Well... you’ve surprised me. Just look at the "Correct Score" market, the odds there provide data you can draw conclusions from. You can glean similar information from the handicap and BTTS markets, but why rely on indirect data when direct data is available? Mind you, though, those odds aren't really suitable for cash bets.

Yeah, and you've to look at the books with the best odds to get the most "accurate" odds (books with a lot of juice tend to lump similar scorelines with very similar odds). And then to separate exact scores with same odds, just look at handicaps and totals to get a sense of which scoreline was actually more "realistic". We all failed haha.

[mv1986]

Back in the hunt! Quite a few exact scores (particularly proud of the 3-2 Werder smackdown), was also close to getting the only Hamburg win, but Slam got that too (come on, man!).

Too bad we can't see each other's pick before kickoffs... would be nice to see if we've any hope of catching up in the GW.

It's a guessing game then, you could play it as safe as possible and force the others to take some risk. HSV - Köln won you a lot in this GW so far. I think for Bayer vs. Leipzig we will see some here going with a draw, wonder how many will take Leipzig as the winner. Risky, but not totally impossible.

@buwaytress you could steal some of the info from BSFL maybe At least in my case you would know what I don't pick (unless I deviated here from what I thought would be the right pick in BSFL).

@cygan you took a serious hit this round despite your boys winning that game

[arallmuus]

Well... you’ve surprised me.

I wish I could tell you that I was kidding but I am clearly not and looking at my current point this round, it just make sense that I totally didnt understand how to do it better

just look at handicaps and totals to get a sense of which scoreline was actually more "realistic".

Yeah it just kinda make sense now that I tried to look at it. So far I was like looking at their h2h as well as total goal scored / conceded then type in the score that pop outs on my head

I changed 2 out 3 score on the remaining games, lets see if this works out for me

[buwaytress]

Too bad we can't see each other's pick before kickoffs... would be nice to see if we've any hope of catching up in the GW.

It's a guessing game then, you could play it as safe as possible and force the others to take some risk. HSV - Köln won you a lot in this GW so far. I think for Bayer vs. Leipzig we will see some here going with a draw, wonder how many will take Leipzig as the winner. Risky, but not totally impossible.

@buwaytress you could steal some of the info from BSFL maybe At least in my case you would know what I don't pick (unless I deviated here from what I thought would be the right pick in BSFL).

@cygan you took a serious hit this round despite your boys winning that game

Ah, I usually don't pick with any BSFL memory in mind, used to try and hedge here and there (also with betting) but at least as early as last season I've just made picks independently. Not like my second-guessing was very effective, so I'll take my good starts and see where I end up.

The Koln loss was a gamble, glad it hit. BVB saved me late on (3-2 getting 3 points from a 1-0 win is one time the system helps me) and I just need to get these remaining matches correct I think to keep up with Hoody. Very close game going on now but if Schalke edge it, I might just hang on...

[mv1986]

~

Ah, I usually don't pick with any BSFL memory in mind, used to try and hedge here and there (also with betting) but at least as early as last season I've just made picks independently. Not like my second-guessing was very effective, so I'll take my good starts and see where I end up.

The Koln loss was a gamble, glad it hit. BVB saved me late on (3-2 getting 3 points from a 1-0 win is one time the system helps me) and I just need to get these remaining matches correct I think to keep up with Hoody. Very close game going on now but if Schalke edge it, I might just hang on...

I usually don't do it either, but today I thought about how to build a half decent hedge bet to make it worthwhile and came up with the idea to include my picks from the pool and see how they can make sense with my picks from BSFL

Now frankly, it didn't work out unless Hoffenheim goes bonkers now, but I don't see that coming.

Very strong round for you!

[slackovic]

Oh wow buwaytress! Congrats on another great round. You are really killing it at the start of the season. 19 points with Hoody_Hoo finishing second with 5 points less than you. If this is not an announcement of a fight for the title, I don't know what it is

As for me... Another bad round. I hope that I can get my $hit together and start getting some more points per round.

[cygan]

as i’m currently only on my mobile, this round-up is coming a little late and without any charts
on matchday #4, we can congratulate buwaytress on winning the matchday
with 19 points, he also wins the 50 USDT free bet on Vega.bet
what’s more, he is now the new pool leader, climbing four places to take first spot

[buwaytress]

I usually don't do it either, but today I thought about how to build a half decent hedge bet to make it worthwhile and came up with the idea to include my picks from the pool and see how they can make sense with my picks from BSFL

So did your hedge work out? I didn't do well in the last few games, but turns out it was enough. Long live Hamburg!

Oh wow buwaytress! Congrats on another great round. You are really killing it at the start of the season. 19 points with Hoody_Hoo finishing second with 5 points less than you. If this is not an announcement of a fight for the title, I don't know what it is

I'm one of those snowflakes when it comes to marathons, so I'll allow this early performance to get to my head. This has actually happened before... heh heh

with 19 points, he also wins the 50 USDT free bet on Vega.bet
what’s more, he is now the new pool leader, climbing four places to take first spot

Beauty! Nations League, Germany bet. Easy peasy

[KTChampions]

as i’m currently only on my mobile, this round-up is coming a little late and without any charts
on matchday #4, we can congratulate buwaytress on winning the matchday
with 19 points, he also wins the 50 USDT free bet on Vega.bet
what’s more, he is now the new pool leader, climbing four places to take first spot

buwaytress really knuckled down to it, I join in the congratulations and look forward to a report on how he used the free bet.
I flopped in this round, I thought the bookmakers were misjudging Mönchengladbach and Dortmund as underdogs and placed bets on them, but unfortunately, only the bet on Dortmund paid off. And in some other games the randomness turned against me, so I only scored 10 points. Hope after the break the random will choose my side.

[pawel7777]

Buwaytress is on fire. Hitting three 4-pointers in one round is truly impressive. I haven't hit a single exact prediction in 4 rounds, but the day will come
This week has been my worst so far. I dropped down by 7 places. I won one free $50 bet before, so I've already hit my RoI and won't be at a loss, but it still hurts haha

I realised my best chance of winning a round is if most of you guys forget about placing your predictions on time. So yeah, remember there's no Bundesliga this weekend or next, so no point in placing predictions early. Just wait till the very last moment as a lot can change by 9th October (injuries and whatnot). Just forget about it and move on to other things.

[Harkorede]

with 19 points, he also wins the 50 USDT free bet on Vega.bet
what’s more, he is now the new pool leader, climbing four places to take first spot

Beauty! Nations League, Germany bet. Easy peasy

I guess when it rains it pours, uncle Bubu running riots on multiple fronts is as rare as it gets, but not for starting ridiculously well… Sooner rather than later I’m sure we’ll be up to speed with what’s going on with you, this far from ordinary.

Congratulations! I can’t say you deserve it, going by how well we know you Padi, but it is what it is. Enjoy it while it lasts, “Winter is coming!”…

[mv1986]

~

Beauty! Nations League, Germany bet. Easy peasy

Did you already place that bet? I hope you are following German media. I don't know exactly, but Klopp is not planning on taking the Nations League overly seriously. He wants to rotate like hell and as far as I know, has nominated the largest national team ever or something? I would expect a ton of rotation, a ton of players who will be nervous because it is their first or an important game. I am not sure whether Germany will have a chance away from home against the Netherlands to be honest, but thanks, you are probably our biggest and most confident fan, lol!