Most people are playing the wrong Bitcoin game

[HashRate Hero]

Most people are trying to time the top or bottom of Bitcoin .


Honestly ? This ( Best strategy ) has always been the most boring one : All we have to do is stack sats then log off .

We have to stop checking the charts every five minutes , Our future will thank us for the peace of mind.

Agree ?

[Asiska02]

This is because of how people see and perceive Bitcoin after investment. First of all, they see it as a get rich quick scheme and allocate a timeframe to take profit from the investment. As long as they keep seeing it this way, they’ll be moved by every change in the market and their emotion will make them to take decisions that will not favour their investment.

Just like you suggested, invest and stop checking the market over again will give you more peace of mind and will not push you to want to go against the criterion for holding for the long term. Bitcoin for the long term is the best to save yourself from taking unnecessary risk just wanting to protect your funds from falling in value.

[Rashlyowl]

I agree that if those questions were put to me, all the answers I provided would be subjective in nature. But not everyone shares my mindset, people come from different backgrounds, take some of the broski in my circle, for instance. Most of them simply believe that BTC is nothing more than a vehicle for speculation. Therefore, they mostly engage in trading & seize short-term opportunities, they do not believe in the future of BTC.

Neither I nor the rest of us should blame them, because it was their choice. Ultimately, we will see who is grateful & who regrets not believing in the future of BTC, it is only a matter of time.

[Ambatman]

We have to stop checking the charts every five minutes , Our future will thank us for the peace of mind.

Agree ?

Holding doesn't necessarily translates to peace of mind
It has its roller coaster.
You holding through storms, war, Tariffs, not excluding during moons and hitting space.
You trust it would go up doesn't mean the drops are not annoying and don't bring some level of doubt.
When I do I just go to WO see how they fairing and use that to encourage myself.

[Lontor]

The wrong game is playing one side and ignoring the other, you can never tell which one will play out first, instead of doing that why not play both sides? Like buying some Bitcoin just in case the bottom is already in and safe up cash just in case bottom isn't in yet?

This is not something where you must pick 1 side only, it's game where there is no rules, so DCA in Bitcoin and fiat all together, if you are making extra $50 per week for investment only, put $25 in Bitcoin and $25 in USDT every week.

It's called killing two birds with one stone, you cannot never miss out.

[HashRate Hero]

@Lontor : Playing both sides kills the focus. DCA into Bitcoin keeps it simple without hedging against your own conviction.

@Ambatman : Exactly. The roller-coaster is part of it, which is why stepping away beats trying to micro-manage every dip.

[Donneski]

One problem I think those who always try to time the market have is having the enough precision to accurately predict twice. Apart from timing the perfect entry time, you also need to time the perfect exit time.

Like I'll always say, DCA is the solution to all these. It takes away the pressure because you'll not need to depend on one perfect entry.  With DCA, you probably won't catch the exact bottom but you'll save yourself the stress of guessing what you aren't sure of. For every long-term holder that's adopted the DCA strategy, that simplicity can actually be a big advantage

[Zlantann]

Holding doesn't necessarily translates to peace of mind
It has its roller coaster.
You holding through storms, war, Tariffs, not excluding during moons and hitting space.
You trust it would go up doesn't mean the drops are not annoying and don't bring some level of doubt.
When I do I just go to WO see how they fairing and use that to encourage myself.

You could have peace of mind based on the historic event of Bitcoin. Based on the Bitcoin cycle, one can predict when the price will drop and also increase. Traditionally, Bitcoin has increased during certain periods, like during the halving period. Investors simply buy, hodl, and sell when the price appreciates during that period. Having this in mind, tariffs,  wars, sanctions, and so on shouldn't cause much panic among long-term investors because they already have plans. There could also be plan adjustments if things don't work out as predicted.

[legiteum]

Most people are trying to time the top or bottom of Bitcoin .

Honestly ? This ( Best strategy ) has always been the most boring one : All we have to do is stack sats then log off .

We have to stop checking the charts every five minutes , Our future will thank us for the peace of mind.

Agree ?

This is what's called, "passive investing" or the "buy and hold" strategy. It's when you purchase an investment and then never look at it again for years.

Both of these terms are derisive terms among professional investors. It's another words, investors call people do this morons or suckers. As in, "oh yeah, I talked to one of those idiotic 'buy and hold' investors today--and because he was so stupid I was able to get some of his money from him".

The principle you should follow is the one your mother (hopefully) taught you when you were young: you need to work to make money. Anybody who tries to sell you "guaranteed riches without doing any work" is lying to you in order to take your money.

Bitcoin should be purchased like any other investment: buy low, sell high. If you think Bitcoin is going to go down in price, sell it. If you think it's going to go up in price, buy it. If you think it's going to dip for a while and then go back up later... SELL IT! Then buy even more later when you think it will start going up in price.

This is how serious investors think. Morons who will always live hand to mouth for the rest of their lives, "buy and hold" or "HODL" or "passively invest". Even bigger morons believe get-rich-quick scams that tell you that you can make money without doing any work.

[knuckey]

I agree 100% because the intention of investing is not just trading, because the intention of investing is definitely long term, not just a few days, weeks or even months but a boring number of years, there is no need to buy waiting for the lowest price, it is just a hassle, the main goal is just to buy a little and do it consistently, I am sure that method will be 100% profitable, even though many people fail, maybe that's me

[HashRate Hero]

True!

You could have peace of mind based on the historic event of Bitcoin.

Chasing every micro-dip is a rookie trap that just leads to burnout; keeping it simple with DCA is the only way to stay sane in this market.

[sunsilk]

That's DCA that you're saying and everyone is always saying that. It's not going to need so much effort that they'll have to deal with from time to time.

They're missing the whole point of what stacking(DCA) is all about. No need to time the market and then also, just buy whenever they have the availability to do it.

They're going to realize that's how the main game goes rather than trying to catch it during the dips and when there's uncertainty.

[aoluain]

I suppose there are some who get lucky and manage to buy at the bottom or sell right at the top
but it really is luck for the most part other than the experienced pros who may be able to repeat it.

I wonder though how critical or important it is? Maybe those extra few satoshi's will make a difference
in 5 or 10 years and they probably matter most if you can then sell them at the very top. For those
who are going to end up selling out in a matter of months they make no difference.

I would rather be stress free, ignore the timing than get left behind and have to buy higher anyway.

[Oshosondy]

Most people are trying to time the top or bottom of Bitcoin .

That is not a wise idea at all, the best someone can do is to have some strategies like DCA to buy bitcoin. There are some time lump sum is good, but it should not be about tracking the bottom because to know the bitcoin bearish season bottom price can be hard to know.

But you said most people. How did you know that most people are doing it? Do not make assumptions when you have not statistical fact about something.

[Y3shot]

Most people are trying to time the top or bottom of Bitcoin .

Bitcoin cant be predicted. If you are serious about the prediction of bitcoin then it will end with regret. People can choose to predict the price for fun and not because individual interest.

Honestly ? This ( Best strategy ) has always been the most boring one : All we have to do is stack sats then log off .

This can only work based on good understanding, but where one is expecting to make profit quick or expecting so much from the price of Bitcoin it is very difficult to take of the eyes from the market.

We have to stop checking the charts every five minutes , Our future will thank us for the peace of mind.

Agree ?

This is a matter of understanding,  and having in mind Bitcoin is a longterm investment without expectation of when to make profit, but when one has timing for bitcoin investment, charts checking becomes a regular thing.

[ColdLava40]

Most people are trying to time the top or bottom of Bitcoin .


Honestly ? This ( Best strategy ) has always been the most boring one : All we have to do is stack sats then log off .

We have to stop checking the charts every five minutes , Our future will thank us for the peace of mind.

Agree ?

If we take a look at the foot steps of our early adopters,we will see that patience was a key factor to their success stories.

By patience, they simply logged off from their Bitcoin investment not thinking or bothering themselves weather the market was bullish or bearish. They were never scared if they woke up some day to find their coins worth nothing or less than what they bought at.

That is they kind of habit we should accommodate. Worrying over the market price only brings fear and uncertainty.

[Franklyn-wood]

I agree that if those questions were put to me, all the answers I provided would be subjective in nature. But not everyone shares my mindset, people come from different backgrounds, take some of the broski in my circle, for instance. Most of them simply believe that BTC is nothing more than a vehicle for speculation. Therefore, they mostly engage in trading & seize short-term opportunities, they do not believe in the future of BTC.

Neither I nor the rest of us should blame them, because it was their choice. Ultimately, we will see who is grateful & who regrets not believing in the future of BTC, it is only a matter of time.

Certainly we all are not the same in exposure, education and the way we understand things differs so much and also determine what and how they see things. Until now some sees BTC as a failed investment, store of value and not a replacement to fiat but a kind of junk experiment with no future.
It is not something one will start persuading someone to join the btc train while it is loading. Mayny are called few are chosen. Life only moves with those that are moving.

[PrivacyG]

I am not very sure who is to blame today for this but back in the day when I was 'playing the wrong game' too I know it was Twitter that made every body think it is easy to turn Dollars into millions in only a few transactions.  It is almost like you have to go through it at least once and lose a lot to finally realize it is NOT easy, it is NOT safe and that while you were doing all of that someone else who was more poor than you simply held their Bitcoin and is now worth many times more than you.

A simple way to make someone realize this is by having them look at Bitcoin pairs instead of Dollar pairs.  Then you can see that every thing is on a descending trend except a few new Shit Coins that will eventually go descending too and.. Bitcoin.  But as simple as this is, it is very rare that they actually realize it as most of them are still living the 'I will be a Millionaire tomorrow' dream and still have to fail once to see it.

Yes.  So far in history all you really had to do to be ahead of everyone else was to get more Bitcoin and wait.  Eventually, most of them will lose pretty much every thing while you are only gaining more.  Both in Bitcoin and in Fiat value.

[Junii]

Agree ?

Agreed 100 percent actually predicting the top and bottom of the Bitcoin is not for everyone cup of tea. Currently the market phase is bear but last year when the rally of Bitcoin starts I see many influencers on social media they  are getting views and likes by predicting the top of Bitcoin but on 10 October when the manipulation starts everyone silently disappears because they are also wrong. So if someone has budget they have to start accumulating Bitcoin because the focus must be on quantity not on price because Bitcoin in the future will definitely give good returns to those who are consistent in accumulating Bitcoin with patience.

[d5000]

DCA is indeed a good strategy.

However, if people are willing to invest a bit of time, I think they can still get a higher ROI simply recognizing patterns of panic sales and exaggerated FOMO phases, i.e. where Bitcoin seems to be overvalued and undervalued.

A good idea is for example to analyze the long term trend of Bitcoin, which can be followed by estimating the line between tops and bottoms. The 200 week average price (SMA 200w) is an indicator for this trend, but it lags a bit. So you could apply a mathematical formula making up for this lag as shown here. This "adjusted long term trend price" is now in the range of 85-95k. I quote the image from that thread:



For those liking to investigate a bit more there's an interesting post by the user @virginorange where he explains how to create a model to "win against the trend":

Dollar Cost Averaging - can we do better?