U.S. debt tops $40 trillion; bitcoin shoots up 24%

[Baki202]

Honestly with the way the US government debt is rising and investors increasingly looking towards scarce assets bitcoin. The government should be really scared that serious inflation is coming sooner than they expect. Does holding bitcoin safe is from this shit? I doubt it can only reduce the impact of the inflation in our daily activities but it’s just beyond holding bitcoin.
However, it’s quite a privilege to take advantage of the down side before all this started, at least we will not cry that much like those that were still waiting for the lowest price of bitcoin to be around $40k

Almost all governments, not just the US government, are heavily indebted. If fiat is failing, then bitcoin will be the next option to take into consideration because it can even beat inflation, which may be one of the reasons why some governments are attempting to join bitcoin. I believe that bitcoin will lessen the impact because, in my opinion, it has an advantage over inflation because it has the potential to rise. And that's why it is even much better than just keeping fiat. And people were waiting for the price to come down, but just look at how the price increased by 24%. Very funny how people still think they can predict the price of Bitcoin.

[Cookdata]

I can't imagine what the future will look like, but for me it's still safer to have some Bitcoin in the wallet, at least as another way to reduce risk and protect against inflation.

The United States dollar is even better than the currency that we are spending in my country, but all together none is safe from inflation among the local currencies. The government created them and devalue them when they wish to make people lose. I prefer to fully have my money in bitcoin and I'm valuable assets than saving fiat. So not some of my money on valuable assets like bitcoin, but almost all my money.

You mean Naira? The comparison is too high. For years, Naira was subsidized, the government was giving discount on every dollar bought in the central bank to peg its value but this government removed it. Now everyone source for what they want. The was inflation, the government printed more than what was reported, many things that Naira has experience, I think it's unfair to compare it to dollar that's a petroldollar, they don't match, not even close by performance.

No, you misunderstood my point   

Of course, the US dollar is stronger and dominate the market right now. It's better than my country currency too but that's not where I'm coming from. I mean they are all currency that lose their purchasing power over time, central banks print them without limit. Basically, they are all the same but practically, the US dollar appears better because of the system they designed. US made the policy that benefit them and their currency, not because dollar as a currency is superior to other currencies. We can all agree that USD is dominant right now in the global market but I disagree it's better than other currencies.

All currency operate the same way, it's just that US government is good in doing bad jobs with usd as their currency like everyone. If you look at the purchasing power of currency, they are worse but they are good at covering up. Once people see that inflation rate is recorded to be almost less than 2%, they feel the economy is better, the government lie to them how they have fixed things but the debt is on the rise, not for time US debt has ever drop. It's goes up yearly.

[WatChe]

Almost all governments, not just the US government, are heavily indebted. If fiat is failing, then bitcoin will be the next option to take into consideration because it can even beat inflation, which may be one of the reasons why some governments are attempting to join bitcoin. I believe that bitcoin will lessen the impact because, in my opinion, it has an advantage over inflation because it has the potential to rise. And that's why it is even much better than just keeping fiat. And people were waiting for the price to come down, but just look at how the price increased by 24%. Very funny how people still think they can predict the price of Bitcoin.

Its also same in every country that governments are free to print as many currency notes as they want and this is the prime reason why fiat value in every country is decreasing. The main beneficiary of fiat currency system is the respective government because it gives them power and authority. One thing we need to understand is that governments will unlikely opt for Bitcoin because its a decentralised financial system which can't be controlled like the fiat system. If government goes for Bitcoin then they have to surrender the financial powers they enjoy in fiat system. 

[Zoomic]

Should we now say that Bitcoin is now the scarce asset that people are now turning to especially when confidence in fiat is being questioned?

$40m debt is very huge if you ask me but I don't think it automatically caused the price pump of Bitcoin.

If people continues to lose their confidence in fiat while demand for scarce assets keeps increasing, then we'll see more bullish trend in the coming weeks, that I think is a better way to analyze it than to say fiat is dead.

[Woodie]

Could this be USA investors trying to shield themselves from what's to come , because clearly the tariffs and whatever is keeping Potus preoccupied isn't helping the situation,  and if anything the war could balloon this has its still an ongoing thing &  the faster  they realize the better for them..

And how are the bonds going..

Volatility is good for the market's **traders point of view ** and now wait for the panic buying to comeback.

[Dark.Look]

In truth, the price shot up simply because institutions
and investors took a cue from Secretary Bessent's announcement about the
doubling of long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per
session.

Sure this deserves more than being scrolled past

Gold: 5.4% Silver: 9.5 Bitcoin: 24% Oil: 6.8%

The $40 trillion figure wasn't news to anyone watching, as it was reported by dear @pooya87. Treasury releases the balance every day, to the penny, at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/ and any interested he could have seen which week it would break the months barrier there. Markets do not reprice on scheduled arithmetic they have got surprise inflation.
If four assets have four different holders and four different stories and they're all moving on the same days, it's a dollar liquidity move, it is not four separate moves to safety that just so happened to occur on the same days.
There is a method to identify which one it is, and it doesn't require a chart of debts. If people start liquidating treasuries then the yields on longterm instruments will rise, as debt panic sets in. The buyback liquidity that @Darker45 mentioned it is just the opposite. Where was the 30 year these 3 days?

[Byebyebtc]

It's just gonna get worse and lucky for us, we have an "exit" option called Bitcoin, and it has been being sold at a discount for the past couple of months. However, over the past 3 days that discount is shrinking and it is shrinking fast... 

I may not considered that as lucky hehe but as strategic as bitcoin enthusiast. Yeah if the price keeps getting higher the earpy birds the last few months are so fortunate. If only I didnt have such personal situation I shouldnt have sold my bitcoin bags.

I personally do feel that when it comes to Bitcoin investment both strategy and luck plays major roles in giving rewards, we all believe Bitcoin has some good potential based on researches and past data, but no one is guaranteed that they will get rewarded, we all hope it will go to our favour, unlike jobs that after working you will be sure of payments, here you just have to hope.
So yes they can be considered lucky to an extent as well, and you would have too if you're didn't sell your coins based on some circumstances.

But next time when you're investing also save money for emergency funds as well.

[tread93]

Honestly with the way the US government debt is rising and investors increasingly looking towards scarce assets bitcoin. The government should be really scared that serious inflation is coming sooner than they expect. Does holding bitcoin safe us from this shit? I doubt, it can only reduce the impact of the inflation in our daily activities but it’s just beyond holding bitcoin.
However, it’s quite a privilege to take advantage of the down side before all this correction started, at least we will not cry that much like those that were still waiting for the lowest price of bitcoin to be around $40k

Man so many folks I tried to tell to get some now and spoke with so much fud. My own brother i begged him to buy some and he wouldn't even consider it but hey what ya gonna do. This is all just dome made up internet money still eben now to the uneducated and uninterested and suddenly by the time the realize it'll be too late.

[TastyChillySauce00]

Honestly with the way the US government debt is rising and investors increasingly looking towards scarce assets bitcoin. The government should be really scared that serious inflation is coming sooner than they expect. Does holding bitcoin safe us from this shit? I doubt, it can only reduce the impact of the inflation in our daily activities but it’s just beyond holding bitcoin.
However, it’s quite a privilege to take advantage of the down side before all this correction started, at least we will not cry that much like those that were still waiting for the lowest price of bitcoin to be around $40k

I suppose they've been doing many things to keep the inflation below the target but it's difficult when you got wars on your table. The Fed has always been indicating that they either gonna keep the rate or they will increase it at some point to control the inflation. The target was 2% and yet inflation floats around 3.4 - 4% which is way above the target, in Fed meeting in july, even 3 members has raised concern and wanted to increase the rate.

On the other hand, it goes to show that bitcoin is a pretty good hedge against this, 24% gain way above other even gold, even though we don't exactly know if the debt and inflation was the reason bitcoin shoots up 24%.

[BALIK]

Should we now say that Bitcoin is now the scarce asset that people are now turning to especially when confidence in fiat is being questioned?

$40m debt is very huge if you ask me but I don't think it automatically caused the price pump of Bitcoin.

If people continues to lose their confidence in fiat while demand for scarce assets keeps increasing, then we'll see more bullish trend in the coming weeks, that I think is a better way to analyze it than to say fiat is dead.

That is $40T, not $40m. And in my opinion, that is also one of the factors behind Bitcoin's sudden price surge.

The US Treasury doubling its longterm bond buybacks from $2B to $4B per operation wasn't something that happened randomly. It's a consequence of the US national debt growing too quickly.

So if some people believe Bitcoin's recent surge is related to the US Treasury's bond buyback program. There's nothing wrong with saying that the size of the US national debt has had some impact on Bitcoin's recent price trend.

[Darker45]

Should we now say that Bitcoin is now the scarce asset that people are now turning to especially when confidence in fiat is being questioned?

$40m debt is very huge if you ask me but I don't think it automatically caused the price pump of Bitcoin.

If people continues to lose their confidence in fiat while demand for scarce assets keeps increasing, then we'll see more bullish trend in the coming weeks, that I think is a better way to analyze it than to say fiat is dead.

That is $40T, not $40m. And in my opinion, that is also one of the factors behind Bitcoin's sudden price surge.

The US Treasury doubling its longterm bond buybacks from $2B to $4B per operation wasn't something that happened randomly. It's a consequence of the US national debt growing too quickly.

So if some people believe Bitcoin's recent surge is related to the US Treasury's bond buyback program. There's nothing wrong with saying that the size of the US national debt has had some impact on Bitcoin's recent price trend.

Bitcoin has always been treated as a scarce asset. Fiat has always been questioned. The confidence in fiat has been steadily declining. All this, however, can't just add $15,000 to Bitcoin's price in 3 days.

The US is indeed having a harder time. $40 trillion is indeed a massive debt. But it was already above $35 trillion 2 years ago. It was already more than $38 trillion early this year.

So, I think the narrative that people are losing confidence in fiat that's why a bullish trend is happening right now is missing the point. How many US citizens here actually bought Bitcoin because the debt hit the $40 trillion threshold?

What then would we say when instead of further rising, the price would drop days or weeks from now, which is possible after institutions and investors lock in their profit following their quick buys after the Treasury's announcement?

[Alpha Marine]

The US is indeed having a harder time. $40 trillion is indeed a massive debt. But it was already above $35 trillion 2 years ago. It was already more than $38 trillion early this year.

So, I think the narrative that people are losing confidence in fiat that's why a bullish trend is happening right now is missing the point. How many US citizens here actually bought Bitcoin because the debt hit the $40 trillion threshold?

This is what I've been saying. It's not like the US debt just jumped from $20 trillion to $40 trillion in 2 days. I can remember even reading on this forum when the debt was $38 trillion, so if something has reached 38 trillion, how shocked will people be if it gets to 40 trillion? So shocked that they lose all confidence in the USD and start looking for Bitcoin as an alternative? 
If people are to lose confidence in the dollar, the US debt is not something people will use to lose confidence. The debt has been high for as long as I can remember. If anything, we should be discussing how quickly the debt rose from $30 trillion to $40 trillion in 5 years, instead of talking about confidence in the USD.

What then would we say when instead of further rising, the price would drop days or weeks from now, which is possible after institutions and investors lock in their profit following their quick buys after the Treasury's announcement?

And I believe it will drop soon. I just hope it doesn't fall below $70k when it does. We've seen this pattern with Bitcoin a lot of times. When the price rises too quickly, it falls even faster. When the price lingers at 77k-78k for a while, short term investors will start taking profit.

[hd49728]

Bitcoin has always been treated as a scarce asset. Fiat has always been questioned. The confidence in fiat has been steadily declining. All this, however, can't just add $15,000 to Bitcoin's price in 3 days.

The US is indeed having a harder time. $40 trillion is indeed a massive debt. But it was already above $35 trillion 2 years ago. It was already more than $38 trillion early this year.

Bitcoin has been treated as a scarce and valuable asset by many reasons, not only because it has a fixed and limited total supply capped at 21 millions. Some important components that combine together and make high value for Bitcoin are: Proof of Work, Decentralization, No-Censorship, The strongest and most secure blockchain.

There are altcoins with same or lower total supplies than Bitcoin has but their coin values are lower or $0. There are many altcoins with names like Bitcoin forks, with Proof of Work too, with 21M total supplies but they are either dead or very weak on the market in both trading volumes and prices.

Scarcity is only able to contribute to value if the asset itself is helpful and practically useful for societies.

[tabas]

It's just gonna get worse and lucky for us, we have an "exit" option called Bitcoin, and it has been being sold at a discount for the past couple of months. However, over the past 3 days that discount is shrinking and it is shrinking fast... 

And those who are still waiting for another discount will miss the current discount that they should have taken. A repeat mistake will continue to exist for them if they don't act on it. Dollars value will continue to shrink and the inflation can't be gone, we have to continue this solution that we have known for a while. Buying bitcoin is no longer just about investing but it's also helping us to avoid the devaluation of the hard earned money of ours.

[OcTradism]

And those who are still waiting for another discount will miss the current discount that they should have taken. A repeat mistake will continue to exist for them if they don't act on it. Dollars value will continue to shrink and the inflation can't be gone, we have to continue this solution that we have known for a while. Buying bitcoin is no longer just about investing but it's also helping us to avoid the devaluation of the hard earned money of ours.

With Bitcoin and this market, people have to understand that they can not predict it precisely as they want to do, and they can not time the market accurately too. So the best thing for them to do is simply accumulating bitcoin gradually over time. They can do that by any strategy they see fit, it is just don't predict the market, don't timing the market, and don't find absolute best prices for entry and exit.

People are always uncertain about the market, about their own predictions, so they change their price targets for entry, for market bottom, for take profit with time. Only when they are able to get rid of such things and use a proper strategy, they can do well for both accumulation and profit withdrawal.

When the market comes to bottom, there are many bad news that are actually making things look to be worse especially in emotion and psychology. People want to bargain price more, for cheaper price, while the market does not care about that.

[Abiky]

On one hand the world continues dumping the dollar (dedollarisation)
On another hand the energy prices are soaring and Petrodollar (ie. the only thing that has kept the Ponzi scheme known as US economy afloat) has taken the biggest hit after Iran destroyed most of U.S. CENTCOM in retaliation for American Terrorism
On yet another hand the US government has been rapidly creating debt and sinking into a financial crisis

So it is not wonder after the news of US national debt smashing through the $40,000,000,000,000 ($40 trillion), we are seeing a massive rally in all hard assets and energy markets:
Gold: 5.4%
Silver: 9.5
Bitcoin: 24%
Oil: 6.8%

Fiat is slowly failing. See my past 2 topics from last 2 years:
2024: Every time a new Bitcoin Block is found, US prints $69 million!!!
2025: Every time a new Bitcoin Block is found, US prints almost $100 million!!!

It's just gonna get worse and lucky for us, we have an "exit" option called Bitcoin, and it has been being sold at a discount for the past couple of months. However, over the past 3 days that discount is shrinking and it is shrinking fast... 

The USD surely has its days numbered. De-dollarization is inevitable. The recent surge in BTC market prices is not only attributed to the rising US national debt or USD weakness, but also to Trump's indication that the government will buy more BTC to increase its reserves. Hype has finally made a comeback. Good for those who bought BTC months ago.

I would proceed with caution, especially when geopolitical tensions are tight. Additionally, past market performance has shown BTC and alts turning bearish within 1-2 years before the next block reward halving. Right now, BTC's next halving will occur in 2028. That means, 2027 will be a bearish year. So the gains BTC is experiencing now, would be only short-lived. There will be a huge dip, followed by another "pump". Either way, you'll win big holding Bitcoin in the long term, than just plain old Fiat. That's a fact.

[Sanitough]

However, the rise of bitcoin price may not link directly to the increasing national debt of US, but when debt and money supplies continuously growing especially for an influential country like US, bitcoin gradually performs better as big investors shift into bitcoin investment most especially if they are seeing US dollar slowly losing its value. That's why we are seeing a current spike for bitcoin, while dollar's value depreciates.

I hate to say it but I think this could also be a perfect timing for bitcoin to start going into bullish and leave a bearish market. Especially if there are global positive news that could also affect and enhance the current price of bitcoin.

[Japinat]

Interesting data, so that means every time US debt increases and people see it as something negative, some may turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven.

Well, I think that makes sense because governments can print more paper money and influence the monetary system, while Bitcoin has a fixed supply and is decentralized. If that debt is not managed properly, eventually ordinary people will feel the effects through things like inflation.

I can't imagine what the future will look like, but for me it's still safer to have some Bitcoin in the wallet, at least as another way to reduce risk and protect against inflation.

Bitcoin is still considered the safe haven in the long run. But it's also a must for us to never run out of fiat especially that all our basic needs are still payed through fiat. While fiat is for spending, bitcoin on the other hand should be saved for long term most especially that its value increases when inflation hits dollar and the rest of local currencies.

I think this explains why bitcoin should remain decentralized while the rest of fiat currencies are centralized. At least people can shift into bitcoin anytime when fiat is no longer providing us a sufficient value. And since US debt will surely increase more, this could somehow guarantee us that bitcoin price will consistently surge high as well.

[marrcelo]

On yet another hand the US government has been rapidly creating debt and sinking into a financial crisis

The unpayable debt of the United States is increasing. The dollar weakening and the government printing money for military spending. The economic management of the American government goes from bad to worse

It's just gonna get worse and lucky for us, we have an "exit" option called Bitcoin, and it has been being sold at a discount for the past couple of months. However, over the past 3 days that discount is shrinking and it is shrinking fast...  

It's impressive how Bitcoin went up this week, 24%

[Nathrixxx]

Bitcoin market price is not there major reason to why inflation rate is increasing in US, just as you suggested, but we are more curious to see a kind of government that will be operating under a particular system that is not working and still continue using that same pattern, nothing is stopping them to waive their debt over the time if the consider bitcoin than concentrating more on printing Fiat, let's take a look at El Salvador and how it has really benefited from bitcoin adoption ever since they decided to make it a legal tender.