Bitcoin Could Overtake Gold in the Next Bull Run: Binance Founder CZ

[asriloni]

Is he drunk or just trolling?

He's trolling and drunk at the same time. It's just easy to understand CZ shilled bitcoin because it will benefit for all of his business. A ceo of biggest crypto trading platform spread hopium BTC shoots up more than gold. From my perspective, CZ is only selling hopium on his prediction, and he indirectly encourage people to buy bitcoin as

many as you can, then he can benefit from fees and his BNB stash that will also move up too.  Disappointed he's getting pardoned by mr tariff.

[TedMosby]

There's no exact time, only a rough prediction/possibility.

Bitcoin will overtake gold, and it could happen as soon as the next bull run, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao told a conference audience in Hong Kong on Thursday.

Precisely, he said, "In the next bull run, it could happen."

Here is the top market cap of all assets, including public companies, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs [1].



Based on this data, BTC market cap needs to grow about 1,900% to reach the same level as gold's market cap.

Here is the CAGR of BTC by BTC Oak [2].



Let's use the highest, the 10 year CAGR, 61.1%.
2026: $1.566T
2027: $2.523T (+61.1%)
2028: $4.064T (+61.1%)
...
2032: $27.371T (+61.1%)
2033: $44.095T (+61.1%)

With this calculation, BTC's market cap could overtake gold's market cap sometime between 2032 and 2033.

One other important thing is that BTC's CAGR will probably be much lower than that. The bigger the market cap, the more difficult it is to achieve higher growth. For example, big institutions like VanEck predict that the base case CAGR of BTC would be 15% until 2050, with the bull case CAGR around 29% [3].



Other sources predict the CAGR would be 10 to 30%. For the calculation, let's use 15%.
2026: $1.566T
2027: $1.801T (+15%)
2028: $2.071T (+15%)
...
2047: $29.475T (+15%)
2048: $33.896T (+15%)

With this calculation, BTC's market cap could overtake gold's market cap sometime between 2047 and 2048.
Please note that these calculations also assume that gold's market cap would stay the same, which is unlikely to happen.

Source:
[1] https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/
[2] https://btcoak.com/rolling-cagr
[3] https://www.vaneck.com/offshore/en/news-and-insights/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-bitcoin-long-term-capital-market-assumptions

[Jubilee58]

https://decrypt.co/376717/bitcoin-could-overtake-gold-in-the-next-bull-run-binance-founder-cz

Can this become true?

I doubt it, but let me see what people will post about it.

Bitcoin marketcap: $1.6 trillion.
Gold marketcap: $32.396 trillion.

If bitcoin will get to over $32 trillion in marketcap, it would have surpassed $1 million and going to $1.5 million in price.

That mean bitcoin volatility in the uptrend increased significantly in a way many people among us do not expect.

What I believe is that bitcoin will get to all time high,  but bitcoin will not go above $350000 in the next bull run.

Bitcoin overtaking Gold in terms of market capitalization in the next bull season sounds so difficult to believe. Gold has grown so massively in terms of market capitalization, and came into the digital market long ago even Bitcoin was created, but with the difference in market capitalization, I don't see Bitcoin surpassing Gold so soon.
Bitcoin in the other hand has also grown so massively, and in terms of fast growth, Bitcoin has grown more faster than gold did in it's early stage. I so much believe that someday, Bitcoin will surely surpass the market capitalization of Bitcoin but no so soon. Bitcoin is really gaining fast adoption, and it's investors are also massively, so such anticipation is something that is hard to achieve in the next bull run.

[knowngunman]

https://decrypt.co/376717/bitcoin-could-overtake-gold-in-the-next-bull-run-binance-founder-cz

Can this become true?

I doubt it, but let me see what people will post about it.

Bitcoin marketcap: $1.6 trillion.
Gold marketcap: $32.396 trillion.

If bitcoin will get to over $32 trillion in marketcap, it would have surpassed $1 million and going to $1.5 million in price.

That mean bitcoin volatility in the uptrend increased significantly in a way many people among us do not expect.

What I believe is that bitcoin will get to all time high,  but bitcoin will not go above $350000 in the next bull run.

I will have to agreed with him if he said BTC could overtake Gold in the future but in the next bull run? I'm not even doubting, it's impossible.

Let be realistic for once. Even your $350k is already high expectation. It's possible thou but that would require aggressive movement because we're not even $100k yet and we are talking about two years or less here.

The gap between Gold and bitcoin now is about 20x, unless we want Bitcoin to perform magic we've not seen before, there's no way to break this gap in the next bull run, not even in the next two bull runs to come. I won't buy any unreasonable idea from any influencer, investor or whatever they call themselves.

[Smack That Ace]

He's trolling and drunk at the same time. It's just easy to understand CZ shilled bitcoin because it will benefit for all of his business. A ceo of biggest crypto trading platform spread hopium BTC shoots up more than gold. From my perspective, CZ is only selling hopium on his prediction, and he indirectly encourage people to buy bitcoin as

many as you can, then he can benefit from fees and his BNB stash that will also move up too.  Disappointed he's getting pardoned by mr tariff.

Trust me, people will keep investing in Bitcoin, and Binance will keep its position thanks to the reputation they've built over years, even if CZ didn't say this.

CZ isn't just a businessman. He's also an early bitcoin investor and even a whale. This isn't the first time he's said something positive about Bitcoin either.
I think you seem to have some kind of personal issue with CZ, so pretty much everything he says gets on your nerves.

Personally, I don't even think Bitcoin will overtake gold even in the long run. But that doesn't mean every bullish thing CZ say is just him shilling Bitcoin for his own benefit.

[Agbe]

According to The Cryptovator, this is also unrealistic to me. $1.6 trillion to over take $32.396 trillions, is there any magic they are going to do for that to happen? What are the variables of Bitcoin $1.6 trillion to over take $32.396 trillions? Because there most be a kind of variables to know that this coming bull run of bitcoin will surpass Gold and he only made a verbal prediction without looking into the variables.

And the number variable of bitcoin to match or overtake Gold is the massive adoption of bitcoin and that can only happens when the government approve their National Institutions to adopt bitcoin. In many countries Banks are not accepting bitcoin for transaction. And another variable that can support that move is the use of bitcoin to pay salary of active workers and pensioners and finally the individual and institutional use or store of gold will give way for bitcoin to take over.

And once the above variables are done and accepted then Bitcoin can overtake Gold. And the question is which of the variables is bitcoin currently because the next bull run is very close and I don't think bitcoin can beat all those things before the next bull run in this short period of time. If there was a massive adoption of bitcoin in the world within this period of after the 2024 bull run, we would have heard of it but there was none.

[Lida93]

I stop to think for a while about how possible this can be considering the time period to the bull run from now. Just looking that gap between Gold's and Bitcoin marketcap there's nothing to argue despite who has said what he said, CZ or not it doesn't matter because this isn't possible with the next bull run.

I believe bitcoin is capable of making a new ATH that's going to be either closer to $200k or not too above it and that's how realistic I would try to keep my expectation on bitcoin price for the next bull season.

[BlackHatCoiner]

CZ is basically a permabull whose job is to perpetually hype the market, so take his predictions with a massive grain of salt.

Bridging a $30 trillion market cap gap in a single cycle is pure hopium and would require impossible amounts of fresh liquidity.

[Muba20]

Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has reached a market value of about $1.56 trillion in the last 17 years. The history of gold dates back thousands of years. Therefore, if Bitcoin is compared with Gold, then the market value of Bitcoin in recent times is not less than Gold. If the current market value of Gold is $31 trillion, then the market value of Bitcoin is about 5%. If its adoption continues to increase in the next few years, it will not take much time to reach the market value of Gold.

The faster Bitcoin is adopted and its use increases, the faster the market value of Bitcoin will continue to increase. Although the current generation is positive about Gold, their interest in Bitcoin is more. In this era of technology, no one is interested in carrying gold, especially when it comes to online transferable assets like Bitcoin.

Gold is valuable because gold is considered a store of value. It is a means of investment and it is a reserve asset. On the other hand, the same aspects exist in the case of Bitcoin. At present, Bitcoin is considered a store of value and a means of investment and a reserve asset. Although Bitcoin, like gold, is not accepted everywhere, but over time, If banks and governments try to establish Bitcoin as a reserve currency like gold, then the market value of Bitcoin will surpass gold in a much faster time.

[moneystery]

It's like he was drunk when he said that. Because even though those Bitcoiners are so optimistic that Bitcoin's price could break through to $1 million, that's not possible in such a short time. It might be achievable over a longer period, maybe a few cycles.
So even though we're optimistic that Bitcoin can reach such a high price, we still need to stay realistic and understand that Bitcoin's price increases are no longer so significant over a shorter time frame. Right now, the market is much bigger, and it takes a lot more capital to push prices significantly higher, and I don't think that's all going to happen in such a short time.

[Localhostspeed]

Is he drunk or just trolling?

He's trolling and drunk at the same time. It's just easy to understand CZ shilled bitcoin because it will benefit for all of his business. A ceo of biggest crypto trading platform spread hopium BTC shoots up more than gold. From my perspective, CZ is only selling hopium on his prediction, and he indirectly encourage people to buy bitcoin as

many as you can, then he can benefit from fees and his BNB stash that will also move up too.  Disappointed he's getting pardoned by mr tariff.

That dude knows what he is doing. He gives hope to investors through Bitcoin, he knows very well that if he says Bitcoin is doing to go up, he is giving everyone in the market that bull run will come and prices are going to be higher again and so his company will be able to generate from the billions of volume from traders. If the market moves, they benefit and if the coins moves, they also benefit because they buy and hide coins with traders too make more money.

If not that the guy is so desperate about the market, he doesn't get to say the things he is saying, it's the current CEO that is supposed to be saying this things so people can recognize him as Binance CEO. It seems that people in Binance don't like him or the high table does not like him since he is not been generous like the way CZ was doing back then for investors. When Binance invest in tokens, they don't do well unlike old coins, they still remain relevant than some new coins.

[jossiel]

I stop to think for a while about how possible this can be considering the time period to the bull run from now. Just looking that gap between Gold's and Bitcoin marketcap there's nothing to argue despite who has said what he said, CZ or not it doesn't matter because this isn't possible with the next bull run.

I believe bitcoin is capable of making a new ATH that's going to be either closer to $200k or not too above it and that's how realistic I would try to keep my expectation on bitcoin price for the next bull season.

Price of Bitcoin can be doubled from the past ATH.

But to say a prediction that it will overtake gold. It makes me feel that we're back on 2017 bull run where people were so emotional and keeps on predicting unlikely things.

Although the price of BTC can sure no doubt increase but this to be specific is on a next level and unlikely on this short notice.

[Karl_3000]

CZ is basically a permabull whose job is to perpetually hype the market, so take his predictions with a massive grain of salt.

Bridging a $30 trillion market cap gap in a single cycle is pure hopium and would require impossible amounts of fresh liquidity.

This is the reason I do not like what people like CZ will say some times. Anyone that is knowledgeable will know that bitcoin can not overtake gold in the next bull run. I believe CZ also know this but just want to say what is not possible. This is the second prediction he made that will not be accurate.

[Btcdeybodi]

I stop to think for a while about how possible this can be considering the time period to the bull run from now. Just looking that gap between Gold's and Bitcoin marketcap there's nothing to argue despite who has said what he said, CZ or not it doesn't matter because this isn't possible with the next bull run.

I know that CZ is a very influential figure in the crypto industry but predicting bitcoin to surpass gold in 2 to 3 years time which is the next bull market is unrealistic because I still remembered when the market cap of bitcoin was at $2 trillion and the market cap of gold was at $22 trillion. Currently, the market cap of bitcoin is around $1.6 trillion while that of gold is at $32 trillion which is to say that it will take bitcoin a long time to reach that milestone. Meanwhile, as the market cap of bitcoin is growing that is how that of gold will also be growing. The market cap of bitcoin surpassing gold may not even be able to happen in the next 10 years, it can only break ATHs.

I believe bitcoin is capable of making a new ATH that's going to be either closer to $200k or not too above it and that's how realistic I would try to keep my expectation on bitcoin price for the next bull season.

Yeah, $200k is a feasible ATH in the next bull run. It's even better to say that the price of bitcoin will reach $500k (though may not be realistic in the next bull market) than to predict the market cap of bitcoin surpassing gold. Gold is also a valuable asset that people struggle to get which implies that there will always demand for gold which will increase its price and market cap as well.

[batang_bitcoin]

Bitcoin will reach new all time highs and will still skyrocket as it's one of its feat that we all like. But for the next bull run, I think it's too ambitious. I'm hoping that bitcoin will get recognized globally as an asset that everyone should have. Yet this kind of prediction is too much to say from CZ. The exponential growth of Bitcoin might not be enough if we only have a limited time table for it with this kind of prediction.

[cryptosize]

Only China (along with BRICs) can do this (dedollarization). Retail investors are not enough anymore.

Yeah, yeah, I know Americans will deny this scenario... but even the Roman Empire didn't last forever.

[OgNasty]

Anything could happen, but I don’t see Bitcoin overtaking gold just yet. Maybe in another 15 years. Bitcoin’s previous gains shouldn’t be mistaken for future performance though. The market has gotten huge and it takes much more to move the needle these days. If Bitcoin doubles from the previous cycle high before 2030 I think that would be a surprise.

[MiF]

Reading through the source you added in this topic, all the points that CZ used to make this analysis is not really enough factor that can make Bitcoin overtake gold just in the next bull run. We need more adoption and utility of Bitcoin for such result to be seen between now until the bull run and it's not going to be possible. I would have thought it to be possible if maybe some of the Bitcoin friendly country starts to compete amongst themselves who will purchase more Bitcoin and put in their reserve and also more institutions adopting the option to paying workers in Bitcoin, but that's not something that's will happen anytime soon. If you actually read the article very well, I doubt you will find any convincing fact that Bitcoin will surpass gold in this upcoming bull run.

Yes, adoption and usefulness are key, but I don't believe we should just dismiss CZ's prediction because the current factors don't necessarily suffice alone. Bitcoin doesn't need to become more useful as a payment system or for countries to compete to create Bitcoin reserves for it to surpass gold in value. More significant than the typical adoption of payments could be the institutional demand, the presence of ETFs and the change of investor preferences among corporate funds. I would consider CZ's claim to be a possibility, but not a certainty, since if he had the right to overtake gold in the next bull run, he would need a huge surge in the market cap of Bitcoin. The question that is interesting is whether the institutional and sovereign demand can do so fast enough for Bitcoin to close that gap.

[BALIK]

Only China (along with BRICs) can do this (dedollarization). Retail investors are not enough anymore.

Even if China and other countries start accumulating Bitcoin, I still don't think that alone would be enough for Bitcoin to overtake gold in the next few years. The gap in market cap is still huge, and gold is not going to sit still and wait for Bitcoin to catch up.

Yeah, yeah, I know Americans will deny this scenario... but even the Roman Empire didn't last forever.

Gold has existed for more than 5000 years and has maintained its position through countless civilizations and empires. Throughout history, no other asset has truly replaced its dominant position. So I don't think comparing gold to an empire like Rome or the USD is really appropriate. Basically, it's like comparing apples to oranges.

[danherbias07]

Gold has been an important asset for centuries, and I bet if you ask 10 people, 9 of them might pick gold over Bitcoin. Why? Not just because of its value, but also because of how easy it is to sell gold and how many people still believe that to believe something, it must have a physical form.

I doubt Bitcoin could overtake it in the next bull run. No, not yet. It's way too far. There are still many people who would rather invest in gold than in Bitcoin. Mostly ladies. They love hoarding gold jewelry because they know how it grows in value. I doubt they will pick Bitcoin over it.