Bitcoin Could Overtake Gold in the Next Bull Run: Binance Founder CZ

[STT]

It is possible to occur, you just need a large supply event in gold.  The whole point with gold is its generally not subject to large amounts flowing into markets but it could occur.   We have a process of democracy in charge of the Fort Knox gold reserves, the world's largest holding of gold.
  So the people could in some ignorance vote to liquidate the gold reserves and spend the cash, it'd be shooting yourself in the foot as its partly a backing at least in theory for the Dollar but its possible as an event.

So the smart thing is not to spill a century of gold right into the market all at once.  If they did do that, the price is going to 3 figures for gold like 2008 levels I guess.
   Then plenty might be holding BTC as a far more secure safer lower supply asset not subject to political disruption in the same way and they'd be right .  

  I dont reckon on those events but people can do anything, many countries did sell all their gold so its happened before.   Price is not value 

[PERtua]

But what interests me is not whether Bitcoin can make it to $1.5 million on one single cycle, it's whether it's the correct metric to compare the market cap of Bitcoin to gold. That's because there is a tremendous amount of physical gold held for jewelry, industry and reserves that's included in the estimated market cap, compared with Bitcoin, which is driven largely by investment. If Bitcoin did not have to take the place of all gold usage in order to try to compete for the same capital. I believe it is interesting to read the long-term comparison because it's not saying that 20x growth isn't possible, it's saying that it's not viable. The key number is just how much investment demand gold could possibly have for Bitcoin.

[Olotu20]

The figures are just too big,  we can't be talking about Bitcoin overtaking gold at this present point in time because, that is not visible and out of the equation for now. What we should be more concerned about is Bitcoin price, the bull run and if Bitcoin can outperform the last all time high that we saw Bitcoin reach , at the last bull run not overtaking gold in terms of market capitalization which will take some years before we can be talking about Bitcoin overtaking Gold.

[okorieemmanuel]

https://decrypt.co/376717/bitcoin-could-overtake-gold-in-the-next-bull-run-binance-founder-cz

Can this become true?

I doubt it, but let me see what people will post about it.

Bitcoin marketcap: $1.6 trillion.
Gold marketcap: $32.396 trillion.

If bitcoin will get to over $32 trillion in marketcap, it would have surpassed $1 million and going to $1.5 million in price.

That mean bitcoin volatility in the uptrend increased significantly in a way many people among us do not expect.

What I believe is that bitcoin will get to all time high,  but bitcoin will not go above $350000 in the next bull run.

This figures are a bit huge but it doesn't change the fact the Gold - Bitcoin is still bearish. Until this charade changes, Bitcoin can never surpass gold.

[Zigabel]

This by now should be no new thing to those who has been into Bitcoin long before now, these are patterns that big whales some times do use to stair up liquidity in the market and then they make profit form it, they know that some persons out there will take whatever information they put out there and act on it because somehow they are been regarded as authorities in that field and so they will not be doubted rather be taken even more serious , the likes of CZ and other institutions and whales does has a way they influence the market by the information they put out there and they clearly know about it, so sometimes they take advantage of it.

Now, not like it is not possible, it is very possible to see Bitcoin at such price, but the problem or challenge will always be with the set time they have set to see that happen, because no one can accurately predict the exact time when Bitcoin will eventually get to certain price, so all of this makes it the reason why we sometimes should not be soo carried away by such information when we get them, Bitcoin will eventually get to that price range, But how long it will take before it gets there is what we don't really know, and so will take every speculation with some sense of probability.

[leonair]

Bitcoin marketcap: $1.6 trillion.
Gold marketcap: $32.396 trillion.

There is a big difference between Bitcoin and Golden market cap and on the other hand Bitcoin price will increase a lot and Bitcoin will continue to be more expensive as time goes by. But one thing is that Bitcoin supply is fixed, more than 21 million Bitcoins will never be mined. But Gold has no fixed supply, Gold is mined constantly and there is a lot of demand for Gold all over the world, so as time goes by, the price of Gold is increasing. Recently, the price of Gold is seen increasing at a very fast pace. So Bitcoin cannot easily surpass the market cap of Gold. If Bitcoin market cap wants to be $33T in the next bull run, then the price of Bitcoin will have to hit about $1.6M or more. And this is never possible very quickly. And in the future, the gold market will be stable at $32T, which is not going to happen.

[okorieemmanuel]

Bitcoin marketcap: $1.6 trillion.
Gold marketcap: $32.396 trillion.

There is a big difference between Bitcoin and Golden market cap and on the other hand Bitcoin price will increase a lot and Bitcoin will continue to be more expensive as time goes by. But one thing is that Bitcoin supply is fixed, more than 21 million Bitcoins will never be mined. But Gold has no fixed supply, Gold is mined constantly and there is a lot of demand for Gold all over the world, so as time goes by, the price of Gold is increasing. Recently, the price of Gold is seen increasing at a very fast pace. So Bitcoin cannot easily surpass the market cap of Gold. If Bitcoin market cap wants to be $33T in the next bull run, then the price of Bitcoin will have to hit about $1.6M or more. And this is never possible very quickly. And in the future, the gold market will be stable at $32T, which is not going to happen.

There is a huge gap. Bitcoin still needs more recognition to surpass gold in terms this figures. Maybe in future but I doubt it would be anytime soon

[Leahized]

Now, not like it is not possible, it is very possible to see Bitcoin at such price, but the problem or challenge will always be with the set time they have set to see that happen, because no one can accurately predict the exact time when Bitcoin will eventually get to certain price, so all of this makes it the reason why we sometimes should not be soo carried away by such information when we get them, Bitcoin will eventually get to that price range, But how long it will take before it gets there is what we don't really know, and so will take every speculation with some sense of probability.

I think, cz words will never be reflected. Because cz job is to keep the market buoyant and nowadays these news do not have much impact. Currently, the market value gap between Bitcoin and Gold is very high. According to statistics, it is almost difficult for bitcoin to spread against gold. And I never believe it will be realised. In the current context, any unwanted incident can happen in the world. As a result, Bitcoin will be affected but Gold will remain.

We know that, Bitcoin is a volatile currency and rises and falls very quickly. But Gold is relatively less volatile and upward. However, Bitcoin is profitable but the level of risk is strong.

[Noorooo]

https://decrypt.co/376717/bitcoin-could-overtake-gold-in-the-next-bull-run-binance-founder-cz

Can this become true?

I doubt it, but let me see what people will post about it.

Bitcoin marketcap: $1.6 trillion.
Gold marketcap: $32.396 trillion.

If bitcoin will get to over $32 trillion in marketcap, it would have surpassed $1 million and going to $1.5 million in price.

That mean bitcoin volatility in the uptrend increased significantly in a way many people among us do not expect.

What I believe is that bitcoin will get to all time high,  but bitcoin will not go above $350000 in the next bull run.

I think BTC can overtake gold but i dont think this will happen in next bull run it will take alot of time and people trust and also a massive adoption accross the world.Personally i also think BTC can go above 250 to 300k easily in the next bull run although nobady can predict the exact top.I said 250 to 300k easily in the coming bull run because BTC adoption is growing very fast many strong countries like russia,UAE and other major countries are showing very interest in BTC.I believe this growing adoption can easily move Bitcoin to 250 to 300k in the upcoming bull run.

[Dave1]

I think, cz words will never be reflected. Because cz job is to keep the market buoyant and nowadays these news do not have much impact. Currently, the market value gap between Bitcoin and Gold is very high. According to statistics, it is almost difficult for bitcoin to spread against gold. And I never believe it will be realised. In the current context, any unwanted incident can happen in the world. As a result, Bitcoin will be affected but Gold will remain.

We know that, Bitcoin is a volatile currency and rises and falls very quickly. But Gold is relatively less volatile and upward. However, Bitcoin is profitable but the level of risk is strong.

There might be some truth that we could be in parity with gold, but it won't happen in the next bull run. Gold has been ahead, obviously as it has been existed for many years and it's the go to in terms of investment and has it's own all time high throughout the years.

So it's hard to reach that kind of capacity in the next bull run. Although during our highs, we can see that we almost go to the top 4 in terms of valuation. But as soon as the bear market starts, the price goes down again so there should be no comparison at all.

We are our own market and we shouldn't be compare with others, including gold.

[drangos]

I believe the real question is not if Bitcoin can reach the level in terms of market cap of gold, but what would it take to get there in terms of new money and new users. Bitcoin has a shorter history of monetary use, and it is more easily transferred internationally, and has a limited supply. Those benefits could be enticing in the long run but don't suggest a bull cycle 20x growth in one. It would be too early to say I'd be thinking about overtaking gold on the next run, it would be a long-term goal for me. It's not just the end that's important, it's the journey.

[STT]

The overall bigger picture for questions like this is the ratio.  Gold to Bitcoin, gold to oil, gold to food even and generally when people start to even think of this ratio rather then the totally normal dollar to item pricing ratio we automatically default to; it means gold is rising in its usage as a medium for exchange even if its quite slight and even if people never touch the gold only using it indirectly such as central banks.

The gold to oil ratio for example has varied for many years back and forth.  Gold has a large component cost in energy and Oil particularly as mines are most often remote deep mining projects not just some guy in a river panning gold for free.   So one commodity alters the other.

Bitcoin vs gold is more complex but they are related in some way also, both are on the same side of the boat in being inverse to Dollar strength.    Being related to me means I very much doubt we alter ratio drastically such that BTC over takes gold in this way.

  Anything can happen but it'd be far beyond a drastic alteration not just the argument gold is static, some archaic relic;  in fact gold has resurgence just as much as BTC appeared as an amazing new technology. 
  Both assets are growth sector in parallel to each other while also being quite different.

[Alpha Marine]

It is possible to occur, you just need a large supply event in gold.  The whole point with gold is its generally not subject to large amounts flowing into markets but it could occur.

It's not possible. Even if Gold's price crashes to about $2k, it would still have a market cap of about $12 trillion. If it crashes to $1k, it would still have a market cap of about $6 trillion, so in this hypothetical scenario, bitcoin would need to get to around $350k for it to overtake Gold's market cap.
Now, if we're being realistic, gold won't crash to $2k, and Bitcoin stands no chance of getting to $1 million, let alone going over it.
Theoretically, it's possible for Bitcoin to surpass gold's market cap. After all, a lot of things can happen theoretically, but practically or realistically, it is not possible.

[DanWalker]

It is possible to occur, you just need a large supply event in gold.  The whole point with gold is its generally not subject to large amounts flowing into markets but it could occur.

It's not possible. Even if Gold's price crashes to about $2k, it would still have a market cap of about $12 trillion. If it crashes to $1k, it would still have a market cap of about $6 trillion, so in this hypothetical scenario, bitcoin would need to get to around $350k for it to overtake Gold's market cap.
Now, if we're being realistic, gold won't crash to $2k, and Bitcoin stands no chance of getting to $1 million, let alone going over it.
Theoretically, it's possible for Bitcoin to surpass gold's market cap. After all, a lot of things can happen theoretically, but practically or realistically, it is not possible.

Same old song and dance, folks keep floating this gold supply shock theory for one reason or another but no one wants to acknowledge that its just not gonna happen.
Gold is actually getting harder to mine, which only adds to its value. And demand for gold is huge. An increase in supply would not make gold any less valuable. It'd only push its mcap even higher.

Bitcoin overtaking gold remains a thought experiment as long as demand remains purely speculative.

[STT]

Bitcoin stands no chance of getting to $1 million, let alone going over it.

$1 million is possible.   I don't like to just openly contradict as perhaps its just opinion to some but just based off history its easily assertible that Bitcoin not only can, its more likely to then not at this point.
   I'm reluctant to state this because it stings a little to mention I mined and sold BTC at $100 and here we are talking about 100,000 not just maybe but its already happened and its normal.   The distance to 1 million from here to me, seems far smaller then the mountain we've already climbed.
  Its going to happen most probably.  Price movement isn't linear.

The context is the Dollar, the common denominator to pricing and the lay of the land has a great decline in value for that measurement.  Unrelated to Bitcoin I was working out compound lifetime gains on pension portfolios ; 1 million is normal in that calculation and its a low mark even.
  However when adjusting for inflation we have to weigh that value of that 1 million even after much compounding of asset value will likely be worth a fifth of what we consider as $1m today, erosion of (nominal)value occurring consistently.

The relevance to gold is that the original Dollar standard was gold based for good reason.   Almost every FIAT currency there's ever been has been wiped out by something as simple as inflation, hence saying BTC cant get a high nominal figure is likely wrong.

We're only discussing which out of the alternative assets is most likely to rate over the others.   I think the general order does stay the same but many think technology takes over from physical relics; the evidence isn't there for that just yet.

   I do wonder about central banks liquidating their gold reserves under stress, current example is the Gulf war and failure of oil sales leading to sustained weakness in the gold price.  We're possibly going to see gold enter a bear market and some kind of flush out, this is separate from its long term dynamics but its total valid when gold is used for money.
   Commodities sell off 40% or more as normal moves, gold will remain just as valid after that happens.  That'd make 3k gold incoming a possible.

[Alpha Marine]

$1 million is possible.   I don't like to just openly contradict as perhaps its just opinion to some but just based off history its easily assertible that Bitcoin not only can, its more likely to then not at this point.
   I'm reluctant to state this because it stings a little to mention I mined and sold BTC at $100 and here we are talking about 100,000 not just maybe but its already happened and its normal.   The distance to 1 million from here to me, seems far smaller then the mountain we've already climbed.
  Its going to happen most probably.  Price movement isn't linear.

I never said it's not possible, nor did I say it will never happen, but it won't happen within the time CZ said. It's practically impossible. What CZ means is that Bitcoin will go over $1 million in the next 3-4 years. It's simply not going to happen. There is no need to sugarcoat it.
And you are wrong. itcoi getting to 100k is more difficult than getting to $1 million.
As you can see, the volatility of Bitcoin is reducing. It doesn't drop or go up as much as it used to in the past. As Bitcoin's market cap is increasing, the volatility will continue to reduce. Now, Bitcoin doing a 5x in two years right now is almost impossible, but it happened a lot in the past. Now, we would even be lucky if Bitcoin does 3x in two years. For the next bull run, the most I would expect is $250k, and that is just about a 3x from the current price. Still, Bitcoin might not get to $250k in the next bull season.

[philipma1957]

It is possible to occur, you just need a large supply event in gold.  The whole point with gold is its generally not subject to large amounts flowing into markets but it could occur.

It's not possible. Even if Gold's price crashes to about $2k, it would still have a market cap of about $12 trillion. If it crashes to $1k, it would still have a market cap of about $6 trillion, so in this hypothetical scenario, bitcoin would need to get to around $350k for it to overtake Gold's market cap.
Now, if we're being realistic, gold won't crash to $2k, and Bitcoin stands no chance of getting to $1 million, let alone going over it.
Theoretically, it's possible for Bitcoin to surpass gold's market cap. After all, a lot of things can happen theoretically, but practically or realistically, it is not possible.

Right now we can turn mercury into gold.

a fact not fiction.

"The total estimated weight of elemental mercury inside the entire Earth is roughly 119 trillion metric tons, while the total amount accessible within the Earth's rocky crust is estimated at about 2.2 trillion metric tons."

there is over 2.2 trillion accessible tons of it. according to google in quotes above.

now google says there is only

"Commercial Total: Combining what has already been mined with what is left to mine brings Earth's total "discoverable, commercial" gold supply to roughly 270,000 to 280,000 metric tons."


which means 2,200,000,000,000/280,000=7,857,142.857

there is 7.8 million times the mercury as there is gold.


So turning mercury into gold means mine the mercury then do the conversion process into gold

it is a 2 step mining process vs just mining gold.

If science makes doing it cheap gold will drop a shit ton in price.

and BTC whales all over it.