BTC price will probably never exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms

[obuoma]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

The $78k today cannot even buy the amount of gold, real estate, or even the same basket of grocery items it could with $69k in 2021 because fiat currency has been heavily inflated since then. So although it was a break of the nominal dollar high, from the aspect of real power purchasing of harder assets it wasn't.

That all said comparing the value of any asset against the single best-and-worst time (only) of historic manic blow off topping is just as flawed a comparison. Bitcoin's real purchasing power has been parabolic upward. He compares the price of Bitcoin to gold, but gold itself isn't a fixed, immutable store of value over shorter time horizons either. Gold is not immune to price fluctuations, especially when taking into account that an increased price undoubtedly leads to higher global mining output, which brings more physical gold supply onto the market over time.

You logic is also suggesting that inflation is affecting Bitcoin because what you have described here is exactly what inflation does. If we look at that logic now, then the statement is correct but should Bitcoin enter into bull run that make it new $1 million per Bitcoin, irrespective of the inflation that we might have experience, Bitcoin will worth more than it ever did in the past. If this happens in the next cycle, inflation would have gotten so bad that Bitcoin will not be worth more.

[fredericktaylor]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

It's not entirely clear what you mean, it seems like you're trying to highlight the price increase from 2021 to 2025.

Bitcoin price was $69,000 at the end of 2021 and $126,000 in 2025, which was the maximum Bitcoin price ever. In 2025, Bitcoin price reached $126,000, but in the future we will see Bitcoin price reach an all-time ATH, which will increase the value much more than the ATH of 2025, but this whole process needs a long time. It is better to buy Bitcoin with confidence and patience and hold it for a long time, which will help the investor to profit from Bitcoin in the long term.

[DPHOR]

Bitcoin can only follow the sequential order of the previous market but currently there are higher chances of the price to increase above the said mentioned years you outlined above.
Of course, you are seeing the price from a lower scope which I think you do not really understand how Bitcoin works, because if you do you wouldn't consider to make this type of post you made here.
Bitcoin is the most focused asset than altcoin, and even though people are more trying to diversify their investments they wouldn't put much priority to altcoin than Bitcoin and of course the price is influential to altcoin as when Bitcoin increases that is when it would reflect to any other altcoin out there.

[Accardo]

Bitcoin is the most focused asset than altcoin, and even though people are more trying to diversify their investments they wouldn't put much priority to altcoin than Bitcoin and of course the price is influential to altcoin as when Bitcoin increases that is when it would reflect to any other altcoin out there.

Multiple altcoins like eth didn't boost alongside Bitcoin in the last bullish run, there was no altseason when Bitcoin did $120k+, the price was bullish enough to make a strong impact on several other altcoins. After the last year's bullish encounter had no propper increase in the price of little projects, it was clearer to assume that communities surrounding an altcoin project appears more structural to the price increase of the asset, much better than growing on the shifting price of Bitcoin.

[laspol65]

Bitcoin price is increasing gradually, no matter how much you speculate about Bitcoin audience and donors, it is natural that Bitcoin price will increase in the future. Because we have seen from the past that Bitcoin price has been increasing as usual and after each halving, Bitcoin price improves the most and creates records at the highest price.
Compared to 2021, 2025 has shown signs of increasing the most Bitcoin price, so 2021 will see more Bitcoin price increase in 2029 compared to 2025.

[Odusko]

Bitcoin is more focused than altcoin, and even though people are trying more to diversify their investments, they wouldn't put much priority to altcoin than Bitcoin and of course the price is influential to altcoin as when Bitcoin increases that is when it would reflect to any other altcoin out there.

Multiple altcoins like eth didn't boost alongside Bitcoin in the last bullish run, there was no altseason when Bitcoin did $120k+, the price was bullish enough to make a strong impact on several other altcoins. After the last year's bullish encounter had no propper increase in the price of little projects, it was clearer to assume that communities surrounding an altcoin project appears more structural to the price increase of the asset, much better than growing with the shifting price of Bitcoin.

Altcoins have been seen to be a make profits quick in crypto that is no longer available with Bitcoin, so many investors that take altcoins as diversify option tend to expect to get the profits their did not get from Bitcoin, but in reality, Bitcoin gives profits but only on a long term basis and not like any pump and dump profits that accompanied a lot of those altcoins which market will only pump once and dump without any structural growth afterwards.

[Pumpsta]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

Oh man, someone's betting BTC won't surpass inflation. I'll take the bet. How much are u willing to risk?

[decodx]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

The $78k today cannot even buy the amount of gold, real estate, or even the same basket of grocery items it could with $69k in 2021 because fiat currency has been heavily inflated since then. So although it was a break of the nominal dollar high, from the aspect of real power purchasing of harder assets it wasn't.

That all said comparing the value of any asset against the single best-and-worst time (only) of historic manic blow off topping is just as flawed a comparison. Bitcoin's real purchasing power has been parabolic upward. He compares the price of Bitcoin to gold, but gold itself isn't a fixed, immutable store of value over shorter time horizons either. Gold is not immune to price fluctuations, especially when taking into account that an increased price undoubtedly leads to higher global mining output, which brings more physical gold supply onto the market over time.

You logic is also suggesting that inflation is affecting Bitcoin because what you have described here is exactly what inflation does. If we look at that logic now, then the statement is correct but should Bitcoin enter into bull run that make it new $1 million per Bitcoin, irrespective of the inflation that we might have experience, Bitcoin will worth more than it ever did in the past. If this happens in the next cycle, inflation would have gotten so bad that Bitcoin will not be worth more.

That's not my logic.

Maybe you didn't understand or you didn't read my post in its entirety, because I clearly stated that I disagree with the OP's comparison of just two assets, and their best-worst performance. Of course inflation also affects the price of Bitcoin, but, as I said, historically, Bitcoin's real purchasing power has been parabolic upward. There's no reason to believe it won't continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

That's right. It's amazing how you're the only one on the entire first page who's brought it up. Everyone's confused; they don't know what the OP is talking about. And that's even though this is a forum about money. Most of us should have a clear understanding of inflation.

Whether we agree with what the OP says is another matter. It’s something gold bugs have been saying lately. I think Peter Schiff says that Bitcoin has lost value relative to gold in real terms since 2021 or 2022.

But the fact is that this is a brief period in the entire historical data set, and gold’s rally seems to have peaked; and just as AI attracts investment, it could burst the bubble, causing money to flee into Bitcoin.

[davis196]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

BTC ATH real price level equals 30-40 oz of gold, a small 1-room flat in my home town Tallinn or 4 years (average) salary.

Define what do you mean by "real price". Is there such a thing as a "fake price"?
Your post isn't real market analysis. This is more like a "shower thought" opinion, rather than actual analysis.
Comparing the BTC price to 30-40 "oz of gold" or a small 1-room flat in Tallinn doesn't make any sense.  We will have to wait for the next BTC bull run and see whether your "theory" is going to be proven wrong or not. I'm pretty much OK with the current Bitcoin price. I was expecting a lower BTC price, to be honest, but the small price pump to 77-78K USD caught me unprepared.

[AVE5]

What kind of post is this?

     

Bitcoin will not exceed its 2021 and 2024/2025 level in real terms. What do you mean with this?

Bitcoin is over 2021 all time high right now.

Also bitcoin will exceed it 2025 all time high later. We are not yet in the time, but the time is coming.

Op is really incoherent but trying to align with the message, I think he mean that bitcoin will not longer surpass the 2021, 2024 and 2025 market Ath but yet, it still sounds unclear to be comprehend.
But the least I understand and my contributions is that in 2021, bitcoin traded an Ath of $69,000 and in 2024 bitcoin was at $108,000 Ath while 2025 was $126,000.
Bitcoin has always been able to break its Ath's because the market has been gaining so much supports due to the significant influence of the Etf which investor's and institutions has muchly been investing in the bitcoin market.
Of course the adoption of bitcoin hasn't reached it peak but still at its early stages by considering the 4.4% of the global population using bitcoin.
So as time goes, so adoption increases and so on at the support levels bitcoin price will always rise while recent and previous Ath's can be broken at the uncertainty but definitely during the bullish event. That's if the 4 year's cycle remains consistent as historically performed.

[danherbias07]

I was really surprised at the big price drop today, but when it comes to reaching ATH, I think time will tell.

I would not say "never" if I were you. If you have really followed the Bitcoin market, it's easier not to doubt that it can reach heights that it has not reached yet. It will grow more, but I think many can become pessimistic after the recent fall.
Still, we cannot use that to determine what the future brings. Bitcoin has a strong market, and it's definitely getting stronger. If the bottom is $60k, we will be reaching higher values in the next few months or years.

[STT]

BTC will exceed its prior highs, nominally and inflation adjusted or even as a gold ratio.  The reason that's really quite probable as theres a large amount of people not yet involved, if the market potential were saturated then it would be easy to speculate the top was in but most people are still not involved so there is certainly space left for a higher price in real terms.

   Of course the constant option is BTC fails or declines and that's it but there's no good reason to say that now especially. AI is overhyped even while I think it continues in success its not a replacement for BTC, I think it might even help aid further BTC gains but we'll have to see how the story plays out.

[Zigabel]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
1)BTC extremely high reputation relative to other cryptocurrencies "The first, the only, the unique" and 2)very strong stock markets: AI boom that is similar to dot com boom with extremely high P/E ratios (stock market has a strong correlation with BTC price).

When it comes to speculating the possible BTC price for the nearest future, anything is very possible, you can assume any price you think suits your perspective and that doesn't makes it correct or the absolute because sometimes it may happen that you were correct and the other times you can be absolutely and completely wrong. one thing we are not sure of just yet is the exact price Bitcoin will be at any time except for the times we have already seen it gotten to certain prices already. It is very possible that Bitcoin may exceed the ATH it ever got to in 2021/2025, it may aswell not get to that point too but the future we know always promises to be better than it was in the previous as that as been the trend we have observed with Bitcoin over the years as it completes each cycle.

Any and all of the factors you have mentioned to be the possible reason Bitcoin may not exceed the limit you mentioned could actually validate your speculation and could also invalidate it. But i see it that the reputation of Bitcoin relative to other currencies is an advantage that will always keep Bitcoin ahead of others and will continually project it to cross new ATH as at when due and not struggling to meet with the former maybe.

[EarnOnVictor]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
-snip-

It's your opinion, so you are welcome.

However, my question: have you noticed what Bitcoin did in the past, especially how history repeats itself over and over in support of the bullishness? That alone should convince you naturally, as there hasn't been a bullish phase in its traditional 4-year cycle without a breakthrough over the current ATH.

[Out of mind]

I don't understand how you created the topic, do you want to stop the price of Bitcoin from increasing?
The price of Bitcoin was $69k in 2021 and exceeded it in 2025 and touched $126k. This is quite good and has made fresh investors more confident, in the future the price of Bitcoin will increase more, that is, in 2029 the price of Bitcoin will touch an all-time high. That is why we should enter Bitcoin investment, we can only be a part of the benefits of touching a high level of Bitcoin price through Bitcoin investment. This is coming in the future and it will be realized, so we should be patient.

The rise in the price of Bitcoin can never be stopped, rather it will continue on its course and its price will change as its demand increases and its popularity increases. In 2021, the price of Bitcoin entered its highest high and in 2024-25, the price of Bitcoin entered its highest level, which we are really inspired by. We are confident that the price of Bitcoin will increase further in the future and investors will buy more Bitcoin and they will hold their investments for a long time. We know that the price of Bitcoin starts a bull run every four years where the market enters its highest high and the price of Bitcoin goes to the highest level. No one could stop it the way the price of Bitcoin has changed in the past, however, the price of Bitcoin will change in the same way in the future and it will become more valuable.

[Lucius]

I think he means "real value" - the face value adjusted for inflation. I.e., what it can purchase on a comparable level.

That's right. It's amazing how you're the only one on the entire first page who's brought it up. Everyone's confused; they don't know what the OP is talking about. And that's even though this is a forum about money. Most of us should have a clear understanding of inflation.

Whether we agree with what the OP says is another matter. It’s something gold bugs have been saying lately. I think Peter Schiff says that Bitcoin has lost value relative to gold in real terms since 2021 or 2022.

But the fact is that this is a brief period in the entire historical data set, and gold’s rally seems to have peaked; and just as AI attracts investment, it could burst the bubble, causing money to flee into Bitcoin.

It's a shame the OP didn't go back a bit further, because while he's right about some things in the time period he mentions, just a few years back puts things in a completely different perspective. For example, 10 years ago (2016), 1 BTC could be purchased for around $400, and today it is worth as much as $84 000, which far surpasses gold, which in the same year had an average price of around $1250.

My opinion is that BTC will surpass gold again in the long term, because although gold has its traditional strongholds, it is still an asset with practically unlimited supply, while in a few years we will reach the point where 99% of all BTC will be mined. I find it hard to believe that with increased demand for the same, the price won't go up at least 3-4 times compared to today's price.

Of course, inflation should be taken into account, but in most of the Western world it is still relatively low and the price of BTC will far surpass it.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

It's a shame the OP didn't go back a bit further, because while he's right about some things in the time period he mentions, just a few years back puts things in a completely different perspective. For example, 10 years ago (2016), 1 BTC could be purchased for around $400, and today it is worth as much as $84 000, which far surpasses gold, which in the same year had an average price of around $1250.

It's easy to go backwards with this site https://casebitcoin.com/

It has a ROI table and if anyone needs chart, it has one chart for ROI too.
https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart
Chose 10 year for the ROI chart, and no way for gold to beat Bitcoin in last 10 years.

My opinion is that BTC will surpass gold again in the long term, because although gold has its traditional strongholds, it is still an asset with practically unlimited supply, while in a few years we will reach the point where 99% of all BTC will be mined. I find it hard to believe that with increased demand for the same, the price won't go up at least 3-4 times compared to today's price.

Of course, inflation should be taken into account, but in most of the Western world it is still relatively low and the price of BTC will far surpass it.

Fiat currencies are inflationary or worse very hyper inflationary.
Gold is inflationary too and with better gold mining technology, more gold will be mined in the future.
Bitcoin is inflationary too but its supply chart has already been in flat area of the curve.

I believe similarly like you do, Bitcoin will surpass gold in ROI in long term, then surpass gold in market cap too but this will be far future.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

[Don Saga]

I bet the probability that BTC price exceeds its 2021 and 2024/2025 ATH level in real terms is very small because it was/is due to the rare coincidence of two factors:
-snip-

It's your opinion, so you are welcome.

However, my question: have you noticed what Bitcoin did in the past, especially how history repeats itself over and over in support of the bullishness? That alone should convince you naturally, as there hasn't been a bullish phase in its traditional 4-year cycle without a breakthrough over the current ATH.

Bitcoin will definitely surpass that price margin, the only considerable determiner is the period it would take to do that. Like you mentioned, over the years Bitcoin has always seen a new high during the bullish season but there is bound to be a consolidation phase and a support below the previous ATH, it's nothing new anymore.

Anyone doubting bitcoin's potential is a joke, and are not worthy to be called holders. There is no advise for such people, the evidence after a couple of years from now would speak louder volume of regrets.

[yhiaali3]

I chose a 50%-75% because I am optimistic that halving and massive institutional adoption via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will push the price higher, outpacing dollar inflation rates.

Of course, this is just optimism and no one can accurately predict in which direction the price will go, and also what inflation rates will occur during the coming period, so it is just speculation based on some optimism.