CLARITY Act odds crash to 18% as Dems reject GOP's "final" offer

[ObeyKnock]

Today's cloture vote failed because it needed 60 to pass and the GOP has 53. They needed at least 9 Dems to support it. So I'm guessing that pushes this past the midterms in November... But it's possible it's not done for 2026 and will follow the typical senate dance where leaderships act like they're not gonna reach an agreement but ultimately do.

The final version that GOP announced this past weekend wasn't enough despite 126 changes that address ethics, disclosure, state AG enforcement etc. Warner said ethics language is not good enough with Warnock and Gallego chiming in, Banks don't love it bc loopholes re rewards on stablecoins still there, Senate Dems came up with counterproposal, Polymarket "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026" contract went as high as 35% when they announced the latest version on Sunday but now it's back to 16-18% once the rejection landed.

Thoughts?


Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/clarity-act-odds-slide-to-18-as-banks-and-state-ags-push-back/

[Fortify]

I'm not sure Dems want to work with the Republicans on anything these days so there's little chance of securing that many votes, until that manchild in office who fell through the floor when it comes to any sort of standards or dignity in politics. If the president is so pathetic to keep regurgitating "dumocrats" then it really shows the only time he wants to work with you is when he gets something out of it, a very divisive leader who spreads nothing but hate. In two years when he's gone, these things can get going again without the stench of his corrupt hands touching it. The fact that he's running his own ponzi scheme alt coin at the moment shows that the law can not be called legitimate and all the Republicans in Senate/Congress are just puppets to his cult - there is no real resistance or push back on anything of the disgraceful things he says, so they're all complicit.

[Filicius]

That's the reason why Bitcoin's price dropped today? It seemed that the week started well, so I was surprised to see the loss of 5% today, although it is nothing catastrophic or out of the ordinary, but it has made us lose support.

As the OP says, perhaps it is nothing more than a dance to finally end up accepting the new regulation, but for the moment its effect is being felt in the cryptocurrency markets, and not only in the odds of the prediction markets.

[Dogedegen]

It is sad to see this happening because it seems that they really tried a bit to give in to the demands about ethics. As you mention many changes were made that were around the key issues that Democrats claim to have with this. I don't know what their problems are, and I also don't like this kind of vote along the party line politics anywhere. It can't be possible that no politician from one party independently is not satisfied with the bill, that is very improbable when it comes to humans. Politicians should vote on laws based only on the content of the law, and if they are satisfied with it they should vote like that. Did they even somewhere write exactly what they want from it or are they just making general statements like even better ethics? If they are not specific enough it can be hard to deliver what they want.

That's the reason why Bitcoin's price dropped today? It seemed that the week started well, so I was surprised to see the loss of 5% today, although it is nothing catastrophic or out of the ordinary, but it has made us lose support.

As the OP says, perhaps it is nothing more than a dance to finally end up accepting the new regulation, but for the moment its effect is being felt in the cryptocurrency markets, and not only in the odds of the prediction markets.

There was again belief that it was going to pass or that it had high chance of passing so the market was a bit bullish, but these news contradicted that. Also there is fears of another interest rate hike so both of these things happened around the same time. A loss of 5% is very small for Bitcoin.

[TastyChillySauce00]

Dems have submitted counterproposal for CLARITY Act but got rejected by Republican quickly because they already incorporated over 120 changes by Dems, If there is a correction upcoming, this is one of the trigger, the long awaited CLARITY Act still gridlocked even after a long time and bitcoin losing momentum on short term bullish sentiment, it's very disappointing how a good bill don't pass because both party hate each other.

However, Brian Armstrong CEO of Coinbase is insinuating that this wouldn't be a problem because SEC and CFTC have the tools to create clear rules as another solution for the clarity, https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2100001040062128191 which If this is just a cope or genuinely a viable way.

[Zlantann]

Dems have submitted counterproposal for CLARITY Act but got rejected by Republican quickly because they already incorporated over 120 changes by Dems, If there is a correction upcoming, this is one of the trigger, the long awaited CLARITY Act still gridlocked even after a long time and bitcoin losing momentum on short term bullish sentiment, it's very disappointing how a good bill don't pass because both party hate each other.

However, Brian Armstrong CEO of Coinbase is insinuating that this wouldn't be a problem because SEC and CFTC have the tools to create clear rules as another solution for the clarity, https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2100001040062128191 which If this is just a cope or genuinely a viable way.

Banking trade groups and the Attorney General of some US states have some valid reason to lobby against passing the Clarity Act. The reason for the lack of support from most democrats was because of the ethical issues. Senator Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, stated that:

This legislation failed squarely because Republicans refuse to say no to the president. It takes 60 votes to pass a bill, and instead of spending their time twisting themselves into knots to appease President Trump, Republicans should have worked more closely with Senate Democrats to craft a bill that could pass with strong ethics provisions.”

When a sitting president gets involved in financial business, it creates distrust among government officials. Democrats think that Republicans have done enough to convince them that they are not protecting the president and his family members.

[ObeyKnock]

That's the reason why Bitcoin's price dropped today? It seemed that the week started well, so I was surprised to see the loss of 5% today, although it is nothing catastrophic or out of the ordinary, but it has made us lose support.

And to be clear, the cloture vote fell 49-50, ten votes short of the required 60.
Tomorrow is Fed rate decision day with futures indicating an 85-90% chance of a hike, not a cut, which is unusual this year.
Both of those macroeconomic events occured within the same 48 hours and it's difficult to tease out which had the largest impact on prices.

Also there is fears of another interest rate hike so both of these things happened around the same time. A loss of 5% is very small for Bitcoin.

You are correct. On top of Clarity faling, we have FOMC meeting next week (Sep 15-16) and interestingly the market is pricing a hike with 85-91% probability. Not a cut but hike and that’s pretty surprising considering this year. So, it’s not just background noise but an actual catalyst that can be added to the pile.

However, Brian Armstrong CEO of Coinbase is insinuating that this wouldn't be a problem because SEC and CFTC have the tools to create clear rules as another solution for the clarity, https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2100001040062128191 which If this is just a cope or genuinely a viable way.

Not necessarily false hope. The CFTC said they intend to issue a rulemaking under their existing authorities. The SEC is reportedly working on "Reg Crypto". Those can be undone by future administrations and are much easier to undo via the courts than actual legislation. They're a stopgap not a long-term solution. But they're something. Also, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee (Republican), Tim Scott, has been pushing them to act instead of waiting on legislation.
Correction to the article: Republicans made 126 concessions to address Democratic asks. It was not 126 Democratic asks to address Republican concessions.

When a sitting president gets involved in financial business, it creates distrust among government officials.

Actually, I think you’re wrong. It failed 49-50, which means it was 10 votes short of passing. According to Tim Scott, almost all Senate Republicans voted in favor of it. The only sticking point was a clause that would have allowed state AGs to sue the president for violations. The Dems wanted this. The Gops weren’t budging on it. That was the only item they couldn’t resolve.

[Iranus]

Dems have submitted counterproposal for CLARITY Act but got rejected by Republican quickly because they already incorporated over 120 changes by Dems, If there is a correction upcoming, this is one of the trigger, the long awaited CLARITY Act still gridlocked even after a long time and bitcoin losing momentum on short term bullish sentiment, it's very disappointing how a good bill don't pass because both party hate each other.

However, Brian Armstrong CEO of Coinbase is insinuating that this wouldn't be a problem because SEC and CFTC have the tools to create clear rules as another solution for the clarity, https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2100001040062128191 which If this is just a cope or genuinely a viable way.

Banking trade groups and the Attorney General of some US states have some valid reason to lobby against passing the Clarity Act. The reason for the lack of support from most democrats was because of the ethical issues. Senator Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, stated that:

This legislation failed squarely because Republicans refuse to say no to the president. It takes 60 votes to pass a bill, and instead of spending their time twisting themselves into knots to appease President Trump, Republicans should have worked more closely with Senate Democrats to craft a bill that could pass with strong ethics provisions.”

When a sitting president gets involved in financial business, it creates distrust among government officials. Democrats think that Republicans have done enough to convince them that they are not protecting the president and his family members.

The bill didn't pass because of a lot of unresolved issues, not just because both party hate each other.

Besides the ethic thing, DeFi and stablecoin yield limit are also still causing disagreement and haven't reach any consensus. But yeah, ethic issue and Trump's own investment are seen as the biggest sticking point.

Not just entire Democrat caucus voted against it, even 4 Republican didn't support the bill either. That show this gridlock is more complicated than just saying two party hate each other.


https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/15/crypto-bill-collapses-on-senate-floor-01077617

[Dogedegen]

Dems have submitted counterproposal for CLARITY Act but got rejected by Republican quickly because they already incorporated over 120 changes by Dems, If there is a correction upcoming, this is one of the trigger, the long awaited CLARITY Act still gridlocked even after a long time and bitcoin losing momentum on short term bullish sentiment, it's very disappointing how a good bill don't pass because both party hate each other.

However, Brian Armstrong CEO of Coinbase is insinuating that this wouldn't be a problem because SEC and CFTC have the tools to create clear rules as another solution for the clarity, https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2100001040062128191 which If this is just a cope or genuinely a viable way.

I think incorporating that many changes is pretty good and it shows that they really tried to make this work, but the Dems did not want to let this proposal go at the expense of everyone who is involved in crypto. They have been really anti crypto since it became a current topic in politics, and it does not seem like they will change that soon. I don't think this has anything to do with Trump, I don't know why some people try to make the whole world about Trump if he is the current president. They didn't talk like this when others were presidents. With that I want to say not everything that is happening is about the president, and Trump is not more special than other presidents before him in this regard.

Banking trade groups and the Attorney General of some US states have some valid reason to lobby against passing the Clarity Act. The reason for the lack of support from most democrats was because of the ethical issues. Senator Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, stated that:

This legislation failed squarely because Republicans refuse to say no to the president. It takes 60 votes to pass a bill, and instead of spending their time twisting themselves into knots to appease President Trump, Republicans should have worked more closely with Senate Democrats to craft a bill that could pass with strong ethics provisions.”

When a sitting president gets involved in financial business, it creates distrust among government officials. Democrats think that Republicans have done enough to convince them that they are not protecting the president and his family members.

This claim and argument does not have a factual basis because almost all or even all government members are involved in business. If you look at the trading data for some of the members of congress they are outperforming the best players in the trading market and they are not even traders. This is not possible unless there are insider trading and other interests in play, and there are also secondary types of lobbing and kickbacks. So to claim that something is wrong here would be wrong since this can not be used as a real reason to not do this.

[TastyChillySauce00]

Besides the ethic thing, DeFi and stablecoin yield limit are also still causing disagreement and haven't reach any consensus. But yeah, ethic issue and Trump's own investment are seen as the biggest sticking point.

As far as I know stablecoin yield is already settled with compromise, no passive yield but through activity based reward, it's not a problem anymore but yeah there are a lot of things still being discussed about.

I think incorporating that many changes is pretty good and it shows that they really tried to make this work, but the Dems did not want to let this proposal go at the expense of everyone who is involved in crypto. They have been really anti crypto since it became a current topic in politics, and it does not seem like they will change that soon. I don't think this has anything to do with Trump, I don't know why some people try to make the whole world about Trump if he is the current president. They didn't talk like this when others were presidents. With that I want to say not everything that is happening is about the president, and Trump is not more special than other presidents before him in this regard.

Indeed that might be the case, but the the Dems side opposing opinion always centered around Trump's crypto holding and self dealing, so it gives us impression that the Dems side really against the the bill because Trump's conflict of interest. Dems has history of not supporting bill but GENIUS act, the one that benefits stablecoin issuer most, so I guess your opinion hold truth, it might be that Dems really don't want anything crypto and still have prejudices.

[Iranus]

As far as I know stablecoin yield is already settled with compromise, no passive yield but through activity based reward, it's not a problem anymore but yeah there are a lot of things still being discussed about.

Nope. That yield loophole is not actually been solved yet.

Afaik, act only bans stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders, not exchanges like Coinbase or Binance doing it. Banks still aren't happy about that, and it's still a pretty big sticking point, along with the ethics issue in the bill.

The bill seems to have very little chance of passing this year, imo.



https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/clarity-act-stalls-senate-crypto-185410147.html

[asriloni]

Today's cloture vote failed because it needed 60 to pass and the GOP has 53. They needed at least 9 Dems to support it. So I'm guessing that pushes this past the midterms in November... But it's possible it's not done for 2026 and will follow the typical senate dance where leaderships act like they're not gonna reach an agreement but ultimately do.

Thoughts?

It was an expected result. We have so many senates from Democrats blatantly against it, while there were also some republicants showed the same gestures as Democrats. The Clarity act is ending here and it will never be passed. People should have stopped the noise about the clarity act because most of senate don't agree with it.

So instead of still keeping your optimism this bill, i believe it's finally coming to its anti-climac story here. In my opinion, just let it flow. The more regulation to the crypto implies more regulators to keep their eyes on crypto. Honestly, crypto has been there ever since it's not getting bounded by so many regulations. We don't really need clarity act after all.

People are just overhyped it so much.

[Somegory]

Clarity act is the last thing to worry about, crypto space will move on without it, people should stop giving their attention to clarity act as of crypto will die if it never got passed and even if it doesn't get passed Bitcoin will survive.

I am not even sure that this Clarity Act is the solution to whats needed to be fixed in this wild west world called crypto space, there are so many things that needs solutions in this space.

Developers getting away with thefts need to stop, people creating memecoins and rugging later without consequences needs to stop, influencers using their influence to create projects and rugging needs to stop.

It should be operation keep crypto space clean.

[Floczy]

Today's cloture vote failed because it needed 60 to pass and the GOP has 53. They needed at least 9 Dems to support it.

7 actually

[Edited out]

But would it not be wiser if they settle the disagreement before putting it to a vote? If they knew already that there are still issues with ethics and stable coin why did they have to go ahead and open votes.. sometimes they are the ones that always cause issues for their selves and even affect others.

[Dogedegen]

It was an expected result. We have so many senates from Democrats blatantly against it, while there were also some republicants showed the same gestures as Democrats. The Clarity act is ending here and it will never be passed. People should have stopped the noise about the clarity act because most of senate don't agree with it.

So instead of still keeping your optimism this bill, i believe it's finally coming to its anti-climac story here. In my opinion, just let it flow. The more regulation to the crypto implies more regulators to keep their eyes on crypto. Honestly, crypto has been there ever since it's not getting bounded by so many regulations. We don't really need clarity act after all.

People are just overhyped it so much.

It is not correct to call it noise, the bill was not something passive. They were doing everything in their power and try to negotiate in good faith to make it happen until the very moment. The result was not expected until the moment that it happened to be rejected. If you follow news from these politics you can see that they often reject some laws from the beginning so that they can get the changes to the law that they want, it is not special about this law here from what it seems to be. Clarity Act was an objectively good proposal and right step towards more crypto regulation, claiming the opposite is just false. Make sure to read what the industry said about this proposal, it was not overhyped but maybe it was underhyped. You see that the CFTC made some rules in this direction after the law passed and there was a very good market response right away.

I am not even sure that this Clarity Act is the solution to whats needed to be fixed in this wild west world called crypto space, there are so many things that needs solutions in this space.

Developers getting away with thefts need to stop, people creating memecoins and rugging later without consequences needs to stop, influencers using their influence to create projects and rugging needs to stop.

These are separate issues. The problem is how to catch those people and there isn't much happening. If they make some kind of task force that handles this kind of issue, then maybe it could work but they need to go after everyone in the process. So if influencers are promoting some random shitcoins or memes and there is a rug they should be liable for what they promoted. That would put a stop to a lot of this very fast. Right now they are pocketing money from the scam creators, and they don't have any consequences when people lose money in the scam.