The shallowest bear market ever?

[Dave1]

Judging by the chart you posted, it is indeed the shallowest bear market in history and that can be attributed to a lot of factors. First, Bitcoin have grown bigger in terms of popularity and adoption, so it is difficult for few events to lead the market to a massive dump in price. The other factor is that there are more institutional involvement now than before meaning that a lot of money is needed to drive the market. Going forward, it will be better for Bitcoin going forward.

There are a lot of players right now, not like before let's say 5 years ago. And that's why the market is very hard to manipulate, and even if there are news that could really affect the market in a bad way, it didn't.

So that could be a good indication that with the vast growth of Bitcoin, it's really very hard for it go just dump in one go and then there will be a huge price correction as compare to it's previous cycle. We might be in a new super-cycle as bear market is going to be shallower in the next recurrence.

If Bitcoin has really bottomed and this is indeed the shallowest bear market in history, that's a sign Bitcoin is maturing. It's getting harder to manipulate, sell-offs should be less severe, and volatility should gradually come down too.

But that also means Bitcoin may not have the same kind of big upside we saw in previous cycles.

A more mature Bitcoin is certainly a good thing. But if it also translates into lower returns in the future, I really do not know whether I should smile or cry, lol.

Well it could also be based on the subsidy every Bitcoin halving, and we are already mined 20 millions Bitcoin already. So as time goes by, volatility might be lessen because of this and everything is going to be based on supply and demand.

Yes, I do understand your concern, as in the future it could really translate into lower returns, but that's how Bitcoin is design by Satoshi.

And it could really magnified how it is really good to be early on the Bitcoin market, as we might have a good start in accumulating hundreds if not thousands and then wait for the market to mature.

[CryptoBuds]

Nope, today the price of Bitcoin is falling and it is close to $82k. After the bull run started, I expected it to touch $100k but it started falling again after about $87k. On September 21, the highest price of Bitcoin was $87,363.76. After that, the market remained somewhat stable and today there is a significant decline.

Bitcoin is trading around $82.6K as I'm writing this, so that's about a 5% drop after a nearly 25% run in a pretty short time. You call that a significant decline?

Also just because it went up to $87K doesn't mean it's gonna shoot straight to $100K without a correction in between.

There are still many days left until the next halving, during this period, the price of Bitcoin is likely to reach ATH many times. Even if the market starts heading towards another decline it will not fall much.

There are still over 500 days to go. If you believe it can hit ATH a bunch of times, imo you should get ready for the opposite scenario too, since it can also print more fresh lows.

The current market is certainly a low volatility market but there is a possibility of another bull run in the price of Bitcoin next month. The trend of Bitcoin adoption is increasing due to increasing inflation in different countries of the world.

If you want Bitcoin to rip straight up so all of us end up with massive profits, it's gonna take a lot more than inflation. heh.

[DanWalker]

The institutional adoption is true and I think that they contribute significantly while the price doesn't move that much for this bear market. It is opposite to what the most of us have expected that it's going to be a very huge bear market every time it comes. But that doesn't look we're going to see it because the move of this bear market is noticeable that everyone starts to question if it's a real bear market or we're moving in a transition and we're entering the bull run.

Institutional adoption does affect market volatility. It may also influence cycles in previous periods. Since price declines can also be reduced, the same can happen to the intensity or strength of pumps in the next bull run. We may have already passed the bear market, but don't rush too much to set the target for the next new ATH. The price increase in the next bull run may not be very large and could proceed quite slowly.

One thing I find kinda contradictory is that a lot of folks don't want Bitcoin to dump hard or bear market to drag on, but at the same time they expect it to pump hard in the next cycle.  

If Bitcoin is becoming less volatile, it's a two-way street. We can't expect the downside to stay limited while also expecting the upside to remain as explosive as it was when market was still young, lol.

So yeah, if this really is the shallowest bear market, I think we should lower our expectations for the next bull run too.

[As-Soon-As]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.
What's your take; is the bear market over?

In my opinion, the bear market is not over yet, but the current signs of Bitcoin's high speed are normal and temporary. So, many weak Bitcoin holders may give up their Bitcoin holdings due to this general high speed, so I tell them that you should not sell Bitcoin due to this general high speed, but rather hold more.
And continue to buy Bitcoin and move forward into the future, you will definitely succeed, because at this stage, the price of Bitcoin may be several times higher than the current price after the halving in 2028. So, do not sell Bitcoin, but buy it and hold it for the future, long-term Bitcoin holding will definitely give you relief.

[Ndabagi01]

In my opinion, the bear market is not over yet, but the current signs of Bitcoin's high speed are normal and temporary. So, many weak Bitcoin holders may give up their Bitcoin holdings due to this general high speed, so I tell them that you should not sell Bitcoin due to this general high speed, but rather hold more.
And continue to buy Bitcoin and move forward into the future, you will definitely succeed, because at this stage, the price of Bitcoin may be several times higher than the current price after the halving in 2028. So, do not sell Bitcoin, but buy it and hold it for the future, long-term Bitcoin holding will definitely give you relief.

It has been reiterated over again that long term bitcoin holding will help build a more sustainable and successful portfolio but many people still do not believe and see through this rather than just allowing the market volatile to affect their stance and decision of Bitcoin holding. The bitcoin market is very volatile and unstable, so is how we should be able to predict the next step of the market not affecting our decision of the market.

This helps long term holding becomes even more sustainable and not panic out of the condition of the market to sell. The bitcoin market is still very much alive, we can get to reach higher levels with time and not affect our holdings. Long term is the best, we should not low market sentiment to make us feel otherwise. The bears will come but the bulls will always supersede the bear when we are patient to hold through the bears.

[Loyang]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.
What's your take; is the bear market over?

In my opinion, the bear market is not over yet, but the current signs of Bitcoin's high speed are normal and temporary. So, many weak Bitcoin holders may give up their Bitcoin holdings due to this general high speed, so I tell them that you should not sell Bitcoin due to this general high speed, but rather hold more.
And continue to buy Bitcoin and move forward into the future, you will definitely succeed, because at this stage, the price of Bitcoin may be several times higher than the current price after the halving in 2028. So, do not sell Bitcoin, but buy it and hold it for the future, long-term Bitcoin holding will definitely give you relief.

A new person or an old person should always take advantage of this decline. Because if a person continues to buy aggressively during this decline, then he can save a good amount of Bitcoin for the future. If a new person can buy aggressively during this decline and can face this decline, then he will definitely face a lot of good things after this decline is over.

Since the beginning of Bitcoin's journey, we have seen the success of long-term investment in the Bitcoin market and it is expected that we will see such success in the future. Because there is no financial system like Bitcoin with strong security. So every person is moving towards Bitcoin and it is expected that the demand for Bitcoin will increase a lot in the future.

[goldkingcoiner]

What's your take; is the bear market over?

I think it might be.
But I would not trust that feeling, especially in something as volatile as cryptocurrency.

We might be building up a bull trap... Or we might see another ATH this year. Anything is possible.


Hodling really is the best choice.

[fredericktaylor]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.
What's your take; is the bear market over?

In my opinion, the bear market is not over yet, but the current signs of Bitcoin's high speed are normal and temporary. So, many weak Bitcoin holders may give up their Bitcoin holdings due to this general high speed, so I tell them that you should not sell Bitcoin due to this general high speed, but rather hold more.
And continue to buy Bitcoin and move forward into the future, you will definitely succeed, because at this stage, the price of Bitcoin may be several times higher than the current price after the halving in 2028. So, do not sell Bitcoin, but buy it and hold it for the future, long-term Bitcoin holding will definitely give you relief.

Of course, maybe the bear market is not over yet, but the increase in the price of Bitcoin is a really good sign, but it is not certain how long the stable state of Bitcoin will end. Therefore, it is reasonable to buy Bitcoin with awareness and limit yourself to what you can afford. From my perspective, the best thing to do with Bitcoin is to not miss every opportunity and hold Bitcoin for a long time, which will protect the investment from losses due to Bitcoin's volatility and have the potential to profit from Bitcoin in the long term.

[OgNasty]

image by bitcoin magazine

Wait!
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.
What's your take; is the bear market over?

In my opinion, the bear market is not over yet, but the current signs of Bitcoin's high speed are normal and temporary. So, many weak Bitcoin holders may give up their Bitcoin holdings due to this general high speed, so I tell them that you should not sell Bitcoin due to this general high speed, but rather hold more.
And continue to buy Bitcoin and move forward into the future, you will definitely succeed, because at this stage, the price of Bitcoin may be several times higher than the current price after the halving in 2028. So, do not sell Bitcoin, but buy it and hold it for the future, long-term Bitcoin holding will definitely give you relief.

Of course, maybe the bear market is not over yet, but the increase in the price of Bitcoin is a really good sign, but it is not certain how long the stable state of Bitcoin will end. Therefore, it is reasonable to buy Bitcoin with awareness and limit yourself to what you can afford. From my perspective, the best thing to do with Bitcoin is to not miss every opportunity and hold Bitcoin for a long time, which will protect the investment from losses due to Bitcoin's volatility and have the potential to profit from Bitcoin in the long term.

I agree with you.  I see a lot of people saying we're back in a bull market but I'm still not ready to make that call.  This is definitely the shallowest bear market ever, and I have been here for them all.  This was the first bear market I wasn't genuinely worried that I should sell BTC in case of emergency.  Even the dip to $60K felt tame.  Maybe because I was expecting to see sub-$50K before it was over.  No matter what, I'm cautious.  They say to buy when there's blood in the streets and I just haven't seen it yet this cycle.

[#CapsLOck]

I believe the more important question is whether the old cycle theory is still applicable to Bitcoin in the same way as it was in the past. Though a 50%+ drawdown may appear to be small compared to past cycles, it is still a significant one. While the institutional participation will likely alleviate some of the extreme volatility, it will not eliminate it, either, and another big correction is possible. To me, would like to see the whole market and how long it's been going on before deciding on the cycle. Perhaps it's too early to call the bear market the shallowest, since we have yet to determine where it's going to end.

[yudi09]

-snip-

The possibility of the market drops a lot in a quick glance can always happen. But seeing it above $80k seems to be a safe haven for all holders who have bought at a nice price for the past months and even with the bad news that we've seen lately.

Yes, one could say that holders are safe as long as the price remains above $80,000—though, in reality, long-term holders are not overly concerned with current market conditions so long as their target price hasn't been reached. They do not constantly monitor the market; instead, they engage with it only when they wish to make a decision—specifically, a decision to buy.
For those employing a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) approach, this type of price chart movement certainly wouldn't prompt any hasty decisions.

[Dizciple]

I believe the more important question is whether the old cycle theory is still applicable to Bitcoin in the same way as it was in the past. Though a 50%+ drawdown may appear to be small compared to past cycles, it is still a significant one. While the institutional participation will likely alleviate some of the extreme volatility, it will not eliminate it, either, and another big correction is possible. To me, would like to see the whole market and how long it's been going on before deciding on the cycle. Perhaps it's too early to call the bear market the shallowest, since we have yet to determine where it's going to end.

The last bull season duration also can be called the smallest bull season because I see the disappointment from people that thought that the market will last longer and I was part of those people that's why I didn't sell when Bitcoin was very high. This can also be the smallest bear market but because it isn't what the market used to be, people will keep doubting that the bear market is over and this can make them to miss buying because they're waiting for more pull back just as I missed selling last year too because I was waiting for more gains. I have seen many threads of the bear season being over and there's something people are seeing that's making them think so, not only are institutional investors absorbing the sell pressure from the market but the market now has more investors buying and this factors can be contributing to why the market isn't behaving as old makers used to do therefore it can be true that the bear market is over and this is the shallowest bear market.

[Dave1]

I believe the more important question is whether the old cycle theory is still applicable to Bitcoin in the same way as it was in the past. Though a 50%+ drawdown may appear to be small compared to past cycles, it is still a significant one. While the institutional participation will likely alleviate some of the extreme volatility, it will not eliminate it, either, and another big correction is possible. To me, would like to see the whole market and how long it's been going on before deciding on the cycle. Perhaps it's too early to call the bear market the shallowest, since we have yet to determine where it's going to end.

That is debatable for now, but if we look at what is going on, the old cycle is still applicable. Let's look at the last cycle, it's lowest low is $3k++, December 2018. And then we have seen all time high of $68k November 2021.

And then in 2025, lowest low of $15k, and all time high of $126k in October 2025.

So it looks like the pattern is going to continue as historically, we've seen it's just repeating itself. It's just how much gain and how big the multiplier will be in the bull cycle.

[LogitechMouse]

---
Have we just had the shallowest bear market ever in the history of bitcoin?
Or are we expecting a huge correction, owing that halving is about 568 days away.

If the bear market is simply over, that means this is the shallowest bear market ever, and  I now understand why it was said that institutional adoption will result to less volatility.

What's your take; is the bear market over?

I will only say one thing.
I will not change my sentiment until the end of October.

This year's bear market might be the shallowest bear market that we've ever seen. This year's low of around $57,000 could be the low of this year's bear market. On the other hand, we might still see a drop in the price of Bitcoin in the following weeks, or we might not anymore. The best thing that we can do is to predict, and up until the end of October, my look at the market is still bearish... or at least I still expect a leg towards the downside before we could see a gradual increase on the price.

Is the bear market over? It might be. It might be not. Some think it is already hence, the increase in price of Bitcoin. Some think we could still see one more downward pressure. The best thing that we can do is to predict, and be ready for what could happen in the future.

[naikturun]

My take is that there is a strong case that the traditional Bitcoin bear market has already ended, but I would not assume that means the market cannot experience another major correction.
Historically, Bitcoin's major bear markets were much deeper: roughly 84% in 2017–18 and 77% in 2021–22. By comparison, the 2025–26 decline was around 50–53%, depending on the exact peak and low used.

[As-Soon-As]

My take is that there is a strong case that the traditional Bitcoin bear market has already ended, but I would not assume that means the market cannot experience another major correction.
Historically, Bitcoin's major bear markets were much deeper: roughly 84% in 2017–18 and 77% in 2021–22. By comparison, the 2025–26 decline was around 50–53%, depending on the exact peak and low used.

No matter how high the Bitcoin price is currently, there is still enough time for it to fall because it will take a long time to reach the next bull market. And the next cycle will take place in 2028, and the bull market will take place in 2029. So from this reason, we can understand that the Bitcoin price has been following the cycle, and will continue to follow the cycle in the future, so during this period, we will have enough time to invest in Bitcoin during the correction period. We must use this time so that we have enough time to hold our holdings in the future.

[Barikui1]

Of course, maybe the bear market is not over yet, but the increase in the price of Bitcoin is a really good sign, but it is not certain how long the stable state of Bitcoin will end. Therefore, it is reasonable to buy Bitcoin with awareness and limit yourself to what you can afford. From my perspective, the best thing to do with Bitcoin is to not miss every opportunity and hold Bitcoin for a long time, which will protect the investment from losses due to Bitcoin's volatility and have the potential to profit from Bitcoin in the long term.

Truly the increase in value of Bitcoin is a good sign, but nothing is certain in the market because this sharp increase can quickly reverse to a serious bear market, since experience have thought me not to be to certain of anything in the market.

Personally I am not too concern on the current state of the market because I think that I am still far behind in my accumulation, so buying and adding more units to my stash is what I care more about than what's going on in the market for now, because I am confident that Bitcoin will still go back to the top and create a new all time high, so it's just a matter of when will that happen.

[STT]

If you are looking for true trend purely based off a nominal price it might easily mislead you.   The value is what will determine a market price and its long term direction.
   I dont know this is the case but for major buyers it might be true that dollar is lower true value then realized, hence the price value is as low as prior falls but not all of that loss is apparent in just price alone.

   Volume and value will likely add accuracy to considering multiple years of price changes and then trying to compare across entire decades of different currency standards globally.

[KingsDen]

I will only say one thing.
I will not change my sentiment until the end of October.

This year's bear market might be the shallowest bear market that we've ever seen. This year's low of around $57,000 could be the low of this year's bear market. On the other hand, we might still see a drop in the price of Bitcoin in the following weeks, or we might not anymore. The best thing that we can do is to predict, and up until the end of October, my look at the market is still bearish... or at least I still expect a leg towards the downside before we could see a gradual increase on the price.

Is the bear market over? It might be. It might be not. Some think it is already hence, the increase in price of Bitcoin. Some think we could still see one more downward pressure. The best thing that we can do is to predict, and be ready for what could happen in the future.

We are almost one week into the Uptober and the signs it is showing is not a sign of the bear. There are a lot of positives in this Uptober and the recent good news from SEC might serve as a catalyst to kickstart the bull run.

Just that we are limited by history and mindset, the signs I am seeing in the market now are all bull run signs. In a typical bear market, this should be the heart of it, where we will be moving from low to lower.

Could it be that the CZ's super cycle I have always criticized wants to happen?

[LogitechMouse]

---

We are almost one week into the Uptober and the signs it is showing is not a sign of the bear. There are a lot of positives in this Uptober and the recent good news from SEC might serve as a catalyst to kickstart the bull run.

Just that we are limited by history and mindset, the signs I am seeing in the market now are all bull run signs. In a typical bear market, this should be the heart of it, where we will be moving from low to lower.

Could it be that the CZ's super cycle I have always criticized wants to happen?

While I still believe that we are in a bear market, it doesn't mean that it's all going down and down and down. We know that there are times where we see the market going up just like what we saw in the last 2 months. It's the same when we were in a bull run last year.

TBH, like you I'm also seeing some bull run signs as well, but I'm a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, so I don't see this as a NEW BULL RUN just like what we saw last year, and with regards to CZ's prediction of having a supercycle, I still believe that it will not happen, and I don't see any reason that it's happening. Do we see the people online saying "we are in a bull market" blah blah blah that much compared to what happened during the 2025 bull run season? I don't think so.

I believe that this isn't the start of the new bull run season, but assuming that we are nearing the end of the bear market season, this is the start of the "accumulation phase" where many investors are starting to accumulate Bitcoin hence, the increase in the price of it.