The robotization of China’s economy - a time bomb or a lifeline?

[WillyAp]

many experts are predicting that the future will be one where you will do absolutely nothing while AI and robots take care of everything.

I call those bullshit experts. NO clue just repeating what Elon says.
Remember what Society is nowadays? Division and hope.
Who is going to pay for the afghan worker $500 a month?

[o48o]

It's true that automation of human jobs will lead to global unemployment. But that doesn't mean the economy will collapse. In fact, many experts are predicting that the future will be one where you will do absolutely nothing while AI and robots take care of everything. They will handle everything from production, to capital allocation, etc. The economy will be flowing as usual. Only that instead of being driven by humans, it will be driven by machines. Governments will simply collect taxes from companies (those in-charge of the AI and robotics infrastructure) directly. Meanwhile, people will get paid some money (Universal Basic Income) while doing nothing.

China knows that robots are the future. So it's deploying them at a large scale to take over the world. The country is advancing at a very fast pace. Perhaps it will reach as far as surpassing the US someday? Only time will tell...

Who are your experts? Because i am pretty sure i have read about these statements, and they haven't been from experts.

Ask yourself it that would be true, why isn't that happening right now? There are unemployed people already that can't find jobs and taxation of corporations is only going down.

And same "experts" seem to loath the idea of giving handouts to people right now, but they sure are happy to get government subsidies themselves.

[mobilestrike]

China was the one with highest population. I still sense it is somewhere good that the population is shrinking by a bit but yes, that does raise major concerns like the labour force. China is mainly dependent on labour works for exporting goods. The availability of man power makes labour cheaper in China which allows them to create identical products but at way low costs. China is good at replicating the existing products and I think that is only possible because they have a lot of empty minds sitting around with no jobs.

We can't ignore the fact that China is advancing technology. They can surely come up with something that does not require extensive labour power. AI in general can takeover. I also think the lifestyle in China would get way better if the population shrinks more in the coming decades.

[viljy]

Mercury was once used to treat intestinal obstruction, and at first, no problems were noticed either Problems arise later - not suddenly, but gradually, building up until they reach a critical point of no return. The total automation of human jobs will irreversibly lead to global unemployment. Or suggest an alternative - where will the millions and hundreds of millions of people go who will be replaced by humanoid or other robots, which will be much more profitable and less problematic for manufacturers?

P.S. Don’t confuse the automation of assembly lines in Japan with the total replacement of humans by robots in most sectors where people used to work.

It's true that automation of human jobs will lead to global unemployment. But that doesn't mean the economy will collapse. In fact, many experts are predicting that the future will be one where you will do absolutely nothing while AI and robots take care of everything. They will handle everything from production, to capital allocation, etc. The economy will be flowing as usual. Only that instead of being driven by humans, it will be driven by machines. Governments will simply collect taxes from companies (those in-charge of the AI and robotics infrastructure) directly. Meanwhile, people will get paid some money (Universal Basic Income) while doing nothing.

China knows that robots are the future. So it's deploying them at a large scale to take over the world. The country is advancing at a very fast pace. Perhaps it will reach as far as surpassing the US someday? Only time will tell...

I’m familiar with this theory. It vaguely resembles the utopian idea of communism.
I’ll ask a couple of very simple questions:
- In this model, who will manage the distribution of resources, and who will decide who consumes what and how much?
- How will a society function when there is no employment, an abundance of free time, and no consumption issues?

Communism is a speculative utopia. Even the simplest reasoning shows this. For example, let’s reason according to Marx: as a result of complete robotization under the control of AI, the rate of profit fell to 0 (Marx’s tendency for the rate of profit to fall), which made capital accumulation impossible, and capitalism ended.

At the same time, the cost of production fell almost to zero, which made almost everything free or very cheap (according to Marx’s labor theory of value). Human labor is hardly used anywhere in the economy, even in the service sector. But this didn’t make people eat or consume less. And then the question arises: why feed them and ensure their consumption? This is inefficient in terms of energy expenditure.

And here Marxism offers a fantastic solution to the problem - through the education of a new type of person who consciously consumes the minimum necessary. Well, it’s clear that this is fantasy and contradicts evolution and human nature. Therefore, most likely, minimized robotic production will provide for only a small number of people, and all the rest will die out. The AI will decide who to feed and who not to. He will also determine each person’s level of consumption through a social rating. Everything will be managed by a narrow circle of people who control AI and robots.

[WillyAp]

Communism is a speculative utopia. Even the simplest reasoning shows this. For example, let’s reason according to Marx: as a result of complete robotization under the control of AI, the rate of profit fell to 0 (Marx’s tendency for the rate of profit to fall), which made capital accumulation impossible, and capitalism ended. .

The fault in his theory is that capitalism is the consequence of trade.
With trade we progressed, No trade and we have the misery communism is. 

[Filicius]

China Is Massively Automating Its Manufacturing

According to the International Federation of Robotics, there were approximately 2.03 million industrial robots in operation in China in 2024. In 2024 alone, Chinese companies installed approximately 295,000 new industrial robots. This accounts for about 54% of all industrial robots installed worldwide that year. In other words, more than half of all new industrial robots in the world are installed in China. Moreover, automation continues to accelerate. China views robotics and physical AI as key elements of industrial development for the 2026–2030 period.

Sources:

International Federation of Robotics
https://ifr.org/

National Bureau of Statistics of China
https://www.stats.gov.cn/

And here an interesting paradox arises.

For an individual company, robotization almost always makes sense.
Let’s say a hypothetical factory used to have 1,000 workers and produced 1,000 units of output.
After automation, it needs 300 workers and several hundred robots, while output increases to 2,000 units.
- Everything is great for the company.
- Productivity has increased.
- Production costs have decreased.
- Competitiveness has increased.
- Profits have potentially increased.

But the question arises: what do the remaining 700 people do? If the economy quickly creates new jobs for them, there’s no problem. But what happens if new jobs are created more slowly than old ones disappear?

While the numbers seem to be true, it also seems that Chinese industry is so huge that those two million industrial robots are more than absorbed into the industrial fabric and could almost be considered a drop in the ocean.

The other day I saw a very current documentary about Shein and it showed a lot of labour of people who even in their free time knitted, sewed and embroidered. Something that perhaps a robot could do equally or more effectively, but given the cheapness of Chinese labour it simply does not seem to be economically profitable yet in many jobs. From what the images showed, it would still be a long way before robotisation threatens the jobs of most Chinese.

[DrBeer]

Mercury was once used to treat intestinal obstruction, and at first, no problems were noticed either Problems arise later - not suddenly, but gradually, building up until they reach a critical point of no return. The total automation of human jobs will irreversibly lead to global unemployment. Or suggest an alternative - where will the millions and hundreds of millions of people go who will be replaced by humanoid or other robots, which will be much more profitable and less problematic for manufacturers?

P.S. Don’t confuse the automation of assembly lines in Japan with the total replacement of humans by robots in most sectors where people used to work.

It's true that automation of human jobs will lead to global unemployment. But that doesn't mean the economy will collapse. In fact, many experts are predicting that the future will be one where you will do absolutely nothing while AI and robots take care of everything. They will handle everything from production, to capital allocation, etc. The economy will be flowing as usual. Only that instead of being driven by humans, it will be driven by machines. Governments will simply collect taxes from companies (those in-charge of the AI and robotics infrastructure) directly. Meanwhile, people will get paid some money (Universal Basic Income) while doing nothing.

China knows that robots are the future. So it's deploying them at a large scale to take over the world. The country is advancing at a very fast pace. Perhaps it will reach as far as surpassing the US someday? Only time will tell...

I’m familiar with this theory. It vaguely resembles the utopian idea of communism.
I’ll ask a couple of very simple questions:
- In this model, who will manage the distribution of resources, and who will decide who consumes what and how much?
- How will a society function when there is no employment, an abundance of free time, and no consumption issues?

Communism is a speculative utopia. Even the simplest reasoning shows this. For example, let’s reason according to Marx: as a result of complete robotization under the control of AI, the rate of profit fell to 0 (Marx’s tendency for the rate of profit to fall), which made capital accumulation impossible, and capitalism ended.

At the same time, the cost of production fell almost to zero, which made almost everything free or very cheap (according to Marx’s labor theory of value). Human labor is hardly used anywhere in the economy, even in the service sector. But this didn’t make people eat or consume less. And then the question arises: why feed them and ensure their consumption? This is inefficient in terms of energy expenditure.

And here Marxism offers a fantastic solution to the problem - through the education of a new type of person who consciously consumes the minimum necessary. Well, it’s clear that this is fantasy and contradicts evolution and human nature. Therefore, most likely, minimized robotic production will provide for only a small number of people, and all the rest will die out. The AI will decide who to feed and who not to. He will also determine each person’s level of consumption through a social rating. Everything will be managed by a narrow circle of people who control AI and robots.

The problem with all such concepts comes down to the idea of "raising an ideologically correct population".
I was born in the USSR, so I understand this problem perfectly. Back in college, during my political economy classes where we discussed the idea of communism, I asked a simple question: Imagine you walk into a car dealership wanting to buy a car, and there’s a Trabant, a VAZ, a Volvo, and a Mercedes to choose from. The question is - which one would you choose?
And that’s when things got really interesting The professor would start dodging the question and say that "a conscientious communist would choose, say, a VAZ, because a Mercedes and a Volvo are an extravagance! Because a true supporter of communism shouldn’t strive for luxury… Blah blah blah"… In a word, it’s simply manipulation of the masses, nothing more, to justify the low standard of living and force people to work under near-slave conditions for the sake of the unattainable dream of communism.

A little humor: there was a joke back in the days of the USSR:

A barrel of beer was delivered to the square. The vendor had just opened the barrel and was about to start selling when a guy walked up to him and asked:
- Listen, how much does the whole barrel cost?
The vendor does the math:
- Well, let’s see: there are 200 liters here, at so-and-so per mug… That comes to so-and-so rubles.
The man hands over the money:
-Here’s your money. Go take a walk, relax.
The vendor takes the money and leaves. The man turns the sign around: "Beer-free!"
Immediately, a huge crowd gathers; everyone pours themselves mugs, and a stampede begins - screaming, cursing, and then a fight breaks out over the best spots in line. The police arrive and take the man to the station.
At the station, the chief starts yelling at him:
What have you done?! Riots, a fight in the street!" What was the point of all this?!

The man sighs, spreads his arms guiltily, and says:
-  Chief, you have to understand… I’m not a young man anymore. I definitely won’t live to see communism. But I really wanted to see what it would be like under communism… 

[abhiseshakana]

I will be less positive in my assessment of their capabilities, simply based on their historical track record of "effective problem-solving", and I will offer my perspective: it is more likely that they have a well-established system for manipulating information to create a positive "image".
Three simple examples: the fight against sparrows, birth control, and the government housing construction program. Three examples from different periods. The effect is the same- solving one problem created an EVEN BIGGER problem...
 
There are plenty of other examples. That’s exactly why I started this thread - because it’s similar to other "unique Chinese solutions". "Common Prosperity" reminds me very much of the idea of "building communism in the USSR". I’ll remind you how that all ended.

I agree with your skepticism. The failure of the great leap forward also serves as a historical lesson that forcibly engineering nature, biology, or the economy without a scientific basis the result is always a far greater disaster with collateral damage. But we should also realize that China is currently face the issue of a surplus, rather than a scarcity like unlike the failure of the Soviet Union or great leap forward. Mismanagement without good governance caused the economy to collapse and the people to starve. Today  with overcapacity issue, distributing wealth amidst a surplus of goods is far easier than dividing up poverty, as the case in the past.

Even though the possibility of fraud remains but on 4.0 industry era, controlling economy using big data can make Beijing’s policy is far more precise and controlled, very different with past experiences when officials falsified harvest reports manuallywhich caused famine occurred.

So i think common prosperity idea in Gongtong Fuyu is not about building an obsolete communist utopia like the Soviet Union. Simple description are let robots do the hard work of creating wealth, then have the state take control to ensure its citizens retain their purchasing power and everything proceeds on China’s own terms.

[DrBeer]

....

While the numbers seem to be true, it also seems that Chinese industry is so huge that those two million industrial robots are more than absorbed into the industrial fabric and could almost be considered a drop in the ocean.

The other day I saw a very current documentary about Shein and it showed a lot of labour of people who even in their free time knitted, sewed and embroidered. Something that perhaps a robot could do equally or more effectively, but given the cheapness of Chinese labour it simply does not seem to be economically profitable yet in many jobs. From what the images showed, it would still be a long way before robotisation threatens the jobs of most Chinese.

China’s cheap labor force is no longer quite what it was, say, 30 years ago. It’s likely that less developed regions still have this "cheap labor", but those areas lack industries that mass-produce goods for the global market; as a rule, they cater primarily to the domestic market. As soon as mass production of what they make becomes necessary, they’ll be replaced by automation just as surely. For now, their employers’ balance between manual labor and automation, from a cost perspective, leans toward manual labor.
It’s a fact that this problem won’t become critical this year, but it will become so in 5–10 years, provided that already now:
- the population is rapidly aging
- unemployment is rising

[Lida93]

Do you think China will ultimately reap a demographic dividend from robotization, or will it face a new problem - excess production capacity and a lack of effective demand?

First of all, I don't see anything new here, and I don't think this is an issue for china or the Chinese economy either. It is a natural phenomenum for people to die and also for people to be born but I still don't believe this trend will have any negative effect on the economy of the Chinese people. Concerning the automation of the Chinese economy, I believe it's a necessity though it comes with some negatives impact since it involves machines or robots doing the work of humans or taking over the place of humans in the workforce but on the other hand, it's China accepting the paradigm shift which is already at work in most Western countries especially in the US.

Sometimes ago, Amazon replaced most of its employees with AI robots and I believe China might be considering same but not only would it reduce the work force and reduce the cost of paying employees salaries but the government would be investing in the production and export of these machines which would also go a long way to grow the economy and continue to put China in the world map as one of the leading countries in tech and innovation.