Value extraction from live roulette

[qwertyup23]

Win long-term in live roulette? If that ever happens, I think that gambler will probably not boast about it to preserve his profit-making machine.

When it comes to live roulette, there are so many superstitions about it, and some would even say there's a pattern. There's none. But I do believe that the weight of the ball could make a difference, and physics could be applied. I guess that is where the pattern will make sense because the weight and size of the ball may differ, and then some balls are sometimes chipped, and it could also change the results of the game.
But I honestly doubt one could do it long term because they change it and so do the dealer.

There are lots of factors to consider but it's so difficult to accurately predict which side it would land even if you know all the factors and technicalities of the roulette.

For example, even if you have data regarding the weight of the ball, the average number of revolutions made by the machine, the exact weight of the machine, and the power exerted by the human dealer, it is still impossible to arrive at a specific number on which to gamble.

Like what you mentioned, even if it is possible to at least have an advantage in roulette, that person would most likely NOT share his findings to anyone.

As you know live roulette doesn't follow an algorithm to generate randomness. The dealer spins the ball with his imperfect human hands and the entropy of the butterfly effect leads to hard to predict outcomes every round. There is physics involved but I'd venture to guess that even a very powerful computer couldn't predict the outcomes perfectly in the given time between each spin.

Of course, it couldn't. Because it's impossible to predict anything with certainty, especially when the probability of the event is not 99.(9)% as of rising of the Sun tomorrow, but maximum 97.3%, when you bet on all numbers, but one on roulette. And normally no one bets like that because the win would be tiny compared to what you bet. On roulette people often bet on a color - less than 50% chance of winning, or on a number, which gives them less than 3% chance. Of course, no one can predict that. And even if a super computer, taking physics into account, could make better predictions than random ones, those predictions would be only a fraction of percent more accurate and in reality would be useless.

I definitely agree with you.

While there are some games in which you can apply all the possible technicalities in order to have the slightest advantage over the house, it just doesn't work in roulette given its very nature of complexity. This is one of those games that you just surrender everything to luck- either you win or you lose type of situation.

[Itz-prisigold]

I agree with you. Actually Roulette is a luck based casino game. There are no winning rules or patterns here. I don't think it is possible to make accurate predictions using physics by analyzing movement. And normally gamblers want to find patterns even in normal events, so that later they can use it for accurate predictions. And the mentality of a normal gambler works very interestingly here. If a very close number keeps coming up repeatedly then if they increase the betting amount because the same number or a close number comes up next time, then the gambler makes a mistake. And they do this because of their psychological problem. Because we always want to find clues or patterns in everything and that creates the problem.

I think there's one thing that should be taken into account here, which is the difference between spotting a pattern and being able to use that pattern and make profitable guesses.  Someone that is very observant might notice that the ball often land around a particular spot, but the crucial question is whether or not that observation can be used to reliably predict future spins.

It's possible that a pattern might look very effective when you're just watching without betting with money, but the moment you start making bet you'll notice that the pattern suddenly becomes useless. It's at that point you will find everything so challenging.  So It's not only about making predictions, it's about proving that the prediction really gives the player a good advantage against the house in the long run.

[Smartprofit]

...

I read one such story (there were probably more of them in reality).🙋

The hero of this story was Alex (not his real name, but a pseudonym). This hacker remained anonymous; his real first and last names are unknown, but all members of his team were detained by the police. He was a Russian mathematician and programmer from St. Petersburg.

He didn't like gambling. He was only interested in complex mathematical problems. Alex realized that the slot machines of his time didn't possess true randomness, but only a digital imitation of it (a pseudo-random number generator). Having gotten his hands on the slot machines intended for destruction, he carefully analyzed their operation and was able to simulate their pseudo-random number generators. The rest was easy! He organized a criminal organization and started making money.

It's true that modern online roulette is much more difficult to hack than it was 10 or 20 years ago. On the other hand, Coldcard hardware wallets have also been hacked, and that's a very recent story.  It also turned out that they have low entropy.🎲

Interesting story, and I have heard so many similar ones... I even saw how people used magnets on slots and roulette 25 years ago (more or less)... There are many classic tricks we could read about or see in the movies, but that was back then, now it's a different time. Modern slots and live roulette run differently...

I know about hacks around, but what it takes to pull it off is probably a whole different story. You need to be a genius and have insider access to even stand a chance. In any way, it's not "value extraction", it's hacking...

So we ordinary players can only have fun playing roulette, and if we are lucky, we will "extract some value"...

Gambling used to be officially legal in Russia... Therefore, slot machines were installed everywhere (even in grocery stores). It was one of the fastest and easiest ways to create a profitable business. 🙋

However, at some point, gambling was banned in Russia (gambling was only permitted in four large casinos located in remote areas of the country).

After this, a huge number of slot machines were slated for destruction, allowing Alex to legally acquire them and, at his leisure, thoroughly study their operation.

In 2017, tired of his criminal activities, he even contacted the management of the companies that manufactured these machines (with the intention of blackmailing them). Alex wanted a large sum of money from them, and in exchange, he promised to stop gambling forever.

Yes, of course, to pull off such a scheme, you have to be both a criminal and a genius. 🧑‍💻

[YOSHIE]

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

One thing you need to understand is that the game of roulette is indeed one of the interesting games in the casino, this is clear, plus roulette gives players various choices when placing bets.

The point is that you need to remember that roulette is also gambling, regardless of whatever strategy you use, the point is that at this moment there is not a single gambler who can really beat the dealer's advantage, In fact, in the field, many different strategies are used by gamblers to achieve victory when gambling on roulette, but it is still not a guarantee of winning, no matter what type of roulette you play.

The point you need to understand in the game of roulette is that the game does not create a 'winning system'. In short, in my experience of playing roulette there are only two strategies that can be used.
1. Progressive Roulette Strategy.
2. Non-Progressive Roulette Strategy.

There are only two strategies in the game of roulette, nothing more.

[johnpark3852]

I hit 3x on roulette at a casino yesterday lol

[Elainebue]

i think it's theoretically possible to get a small edge if you can track the wheel and ball accurately enough, but doing it consistently in just a few seconds sounds extremely difficult. even a tiny error in the timing or camera angle could throw off the prediction. plus, you'd need a huge amount of data to prove the results are actually better than chance and not just a lucky streak.

[famososMuertos]

OP; your context is quite allegorical. First of all, from a physics standpoint, knowing several initial patterns definitely allows for a fairly high degree of accuracy. My friend, spacecraft have been sent to meteorites, and the positions of any object that obeys the laws of mechanics or traditional physics can be calculated. In short, the most complex variable there is the dealer's spin, but knowing other aspects like the roulette wheel's speed, the ball's weight, and air resistance could give us a range of possible candidates. Even if you look closely, the roulette wheel's momentum is determined by the finger on which each initial spin rests.

Anyway, the point is that from the perspective of sane people, these ideas don't cross the minds of most players, and well, maybe they do, but nobody takes them seriously. Because no matter what method you use, the house always wins. 

[EluguHcman]

As you know live roulette doesn't follow an algorithm to generate randomness. The dealer spins the ball with his imperfect human hands and the entropy of the butterfly effect leads to hard to predict outcomes every round. There is physics involved but I'd venture to guess that even a very powerful computer couldn't predict the outcomes perfectly in the given time between each spin.

Of course, it couldn't. Because it's impossible to predict anything with certainty, especially when the probability of the event is not 99.(9)% as of rising of the Sun tomorrow, but maximum 97.3%, when you bet on all numbers, but one on roulette. And normally no one bets like that because the win would be tiny compared to what you bet. On roulette people often bet on a color - less than 50% chance of winning, or on a number, which gives them less than 3% chance. Of course, no one can predict that. And even if a super computer, taking physics into account, could make better predictions than random ones, those predictions would be only a fraction of percent more accurate and in reality would be useless.

That is correct and even though theren is any of the computational devices of software that is being projected to predict any event outcome, it can not be that which resultant is even beyond the dealer to predict.
I stand to be corrected that even the dealers despite being offering services to the companies does not know where the arrows will point at when spins the wheels.

The game outcomes is always uncertained and unpredictable for any tool or any applicable strategies.
It's also true that the AI or devices will look believable with how it'll analyse it's prediction formats but at last, will end up different results.

[Jaycoinz]

Win long-term in live roulette? If that ever happens, I think that gambler will probably not boast about it to preserve his profit-making machine.

When it comes to live roulette, there are so many superstitions about it, and some would even say there's a pattern. There's none. But I do believe that the weight of the ball could make a difference, and physics could be applied. I guess that is where the pattern will make sense because the weight and size of the ball may differ, and then some balls are sometimes chipped, and it could also change the results of the game.
But I honestly doubt one could do it long term because they change it and so do the dealer.

It is funny when experienced gamblers convince themselves that there is a pattern when it comes to games like roulettes that the results are just random. You have a point, there are ways that the weight of the ball can actually affect or influence how it moves, the patterns could have a bit of changes if the weight was slightly different but it doesn't change the fact that the outcome would always be based on luck.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

It is possible to exploit physic based advantage with real roulette wheel. I read this report showing that if rotation of ball and wheel can be measured precisely then EV of approximately 18% is achievable. However, I do not believe this advantage can be utilized in live online roulette.

There is usually delay of 2 or 3 second in stream. Consequently, a portion of time elapses before  video even reaches to casino. And casino stops accepting bet almost immediately. As a result your 3 second window expire before you even see video. When you factor in both video delay and timing of bet lock, that 3 second opportunity effectively ceases to exist.

Moreover dealer are changed frequently, ball is also replaced often. wheel's level is regularly adjusted and checked. Even if there is any measurable bias then it is eliminated before it can be exploited.

[Darker45]

It is possible to exploit physic based advantage with real roulette wheel. I read this report showing that if rotation of ball and wheel can be measured precisely then EV of approximately 18% is achievable. However, I do not believe this advantage can be utilized in live online roulette.

There is usually delay of 2 or 3 second in stream. Consequently, a portion of time elapses before  video even reaches to casino. And casino stops accepting bet almost immediately. As a result your 3 second window expire before you even see video. When you factor in both video delay and timing of bet lock, that 3 second opportunity effectively ceases to exist.

Moreover dealer are changed frequently, ball is also replaced often. wheel's level is regularly adjusted and checked. Even if there is any measurable bias then it is eliminated before it can be exploited.

It's much harder to try look for a pattern or loophole in online roulette than in brick-and-mortar casinos. It's also easier to track bets and wins and possible patterns among players. If there's a player who noticeably makes more money than mere luck could possibly provide, casinos could easily implement limits.

But even in brick-and-mortar casinos, only those with exceptional abilities and special technologies could attempt this. But with various casino measures like swapping balls of different weights and sizes, some even with different materials, swapping croupiers, changing the speed or strength in rolling the ball, and so on and so forth, even geniuses will most likely fail in detecting patterns.

[yhiaali3]

The answer to your main question, "Is it possible to overcome the law of entropy to the point of reducing the casino's profit margin and enabling the player to profit in the long run?" In my opinion, the player cannot overcome the casino's profit margin in the long run in live online roulette.

Even with the idea that live roulette is subject to the laws of kinetic physics, modern online casinos have completely eliminated this possibility thanks to the latency of the broadcast, early closing of bets, constant maintenance and random changes, as casinos change dealers as the balls are constantly swapped and their diameters and weights are changed.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Yes, randomness in roulette is still quite high. If we use a physical roulette wheel, rather than a software-based one from a casino website, then in some cases, small patterns may emerge in large data sets. But the problem is that different physical roulette wheels can produce different statistics. Secondly, the casino administration will discover these statistics before you do and will take any measures aimed at randomizing your winnings. Therefore, a reasonable strategy for winning at a casino should definitely include a stage of selecting physical machines that have imperfections.

[Abdul Sami786]

It is possible to exploit physic based advantage with real roulette wheel. I read this report showing that if rotation of ball and wheel can be measured precisely then EV of approximately 18% is achievable. However, I do not believe this advantage can be utilized in live online roulette.

There is usually delay of 2 or 3 second in stream. Consequently, a portion of time elapses before  video even reaches to casino. And casino stops accepting bet almost immediately. As a result your 3 second window expire before you even see video. When you factor in both video delay and timing of bet lock, that 3 second opportunity effectively ceases to exist.

Moreover dealer are changed frequently, ball is also replaced often. wheel's level is regularly adjusted and checked. Even if there is any measurable bias then it is eliminated before it can be exploited.

It's much harder to try look for a pattern or loophole in online roulette than in brick-and-mortar casinos. It's also easier to track bets and wins and possible patterns among players. If there's a player who noticeably makes more money than mere luck could possibly provide, casinos could easily implement limits.

It seems to me that here in such games there are patterns, so it is difficult to understand whether they are playing honestly or through cheating. There are such tricks in gambling because if we see in movies, they change the position of the roulette, so here too we can understand that they are cheating like this. Obviously they have all the records, due to which they are earning money from gambling with such tricks. This is a separate thing and everyone's win is also based on luck because in gambling we cannot use our brains in any way or we can guess, apart from that we cannot do anything. Some tricks are also done by them and some are our luck which is also attributed to the win, so in gambling, maximum motivation will be from them.

[Fortify]

A live casino setting allows for a physics calculation to be done via video feed without having to carry equipment in a physical casino and get the police called on you. But the question remains if it's possible to beat entropy to an extent that the house edge also gets beaten and lets the player win long term. Because even with bonuses, rake back/loss back and french rules the house edge might still be too high.

Has this been attempted? Do you think it's possible?

There is a very small chance that this is possible, but it also assumes that casinos are stupid and not monitoring their own games - which is wrong. Their survival depends on constantly monitoring their profits and losses, depending on their size they may even have dedicated teams to investigate anything suspicious. If there is any variation in expected outcomes over a few hundred games they will likely pull the roulette wheel and replace it with another. You also wouldn't be able to verify any perceived advantage unless you had thousands, maybe even tens of thousands of spins monitored, because otherwise you might just be looking at normal variance and coming to the wrong conclusions. Casinos are simply not this stupid and the few that might be getting wiped out fairly quickly, plus they'd probably have all sorts of other holes elsewhere in their system.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

It is possible to exploit physic based advantage with real roulette wheel. I read this report showing that if rotation of ball and wheel can be measured precisely then EV of approximately 18% is achievable. However, I do not believe this advantage can be utilized in live online roulette.

There is usually delay of 2 or 3 second in stream. Consequently, a portion of time elapses before  video even reaches to casino. And casino stops accepting bet almost immediately. As a result your 3 second window expire before you even see video. When you factor in both video delay and timing of bet lock, that 3 second opportunity effectively ceases to exist.

Moreover dealer are changed frequently, ball is also replaced often. wheel's level is regularly adjusted and checked. Even if there is any measurable bias then it is eliminated before it can be exploited.

Right, so in theory, yes, but in practice, no. If anyone ever took advantage of it, it was in the past, as has been mentioned; these days, the casinos have everything too tightly under control for you to be able to exploit that.

It's much harder to try look for a pattern or loophole in online roulette than in brick-and-mortar casinos

The thing is, there isn’t a loophole in online roulette, unless the casino operators are so daft as to set up a roulette wheel with a programming fault. It’s a bit like putting a calculator that gets some calculations wrong.

[xenomorfo]

I totally agree with that, we can’t win in long term, which is very true. gambling isn’t a reliable way to make money because the house has more advantage in long term.  You may win today, but tomorrow can be another story. If you want to gamble, let it be fun or entertainment and only use money that you can afford to lose. Personally for me, it’s hard work and wise investment that gives a good chance to build wealth.

Gambling isn't supposed to make you win, it's supposed to make you spend time with a cash prize.
It's not called, as I always say, gambling work but play.
You need to understand this and you will see that if you understand it you will have fun even betting small sums.