JPMorgan Predicts 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns, is it too conservative?

[freedomgo]

So this is the first time JPMorgan has made a long-term prediction on Bitcoin.. so I took the current Bitcoin price and based on their forecast of 10% annualized returns, this is what it would look like for the next 10 years.

Code:

2026: $82.8k | 2027: $91k | 2028: $100k | 2029: $110k | 2030: $121k | 2031: $133k | 2032: $147k | 2033: $161k | 2034: $177k | 2035: $195k | 2036: $215k

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

And as reported this is actually higher than their forecasts for US stocks and gold, which are 7.5% and 5.5% respectively.

[Oshosondy]

I think bitcoin will go up more than it in the next 10 years. Let us see what will happen in the next bull run. It will be good to know that bitcoin is not an asset that will give huge ROI unlike before, but I still think the price of bitcoin would have been higher than $215000 in the next 10 years.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

It leaves me a bit baffled, because it means attributing to it the same historical returns as the S&P 500.

And as reported this is actually higher than their forecasts for US stocks and gold, which are 7.5% and 5.5% respectively.

As for US shares, I imagine it’s because they’ve outperformed the average in recent years; if they’re given a 7.5%, it would be as a way of bringing them back to the average.

But however reputable JP Morgan may be, and however sophisticated the analysis, they can still get it wrong.

[Antidote47k]

The 55% volatility tells us a lot of how widely they are expecting returns to fluctuate, for an investor who’s going to experience losses along the 10 years projected period even with 10% compound annual return, the timing of those loses is significant especially when they are looking to sell.
While 10% annual compund return seems substantial even for an asset as volatile as bitcoin I wonder if they adequately took consideration of bitcoin’s potential as more and more people adopt it. Bitcoin is still evolving and I believe we are yet to get to its fullest potential and its role in the financial system could significantly change over a decade.
A significant question is what JPMorgan actually assumes about bitcoins future adoption and demand, if their assumptions are conservative then their projected returns might also be a bit conservative. I still think that 10% annual compound return is quite good but I wouldn’t treat it as the upper limit.

[Majestic-milf]

 I feel it's too limited or conservative as you put it. If they rate US stocks and gold much higher than Bitcoin, it just shows that they have more faith in the others than they do for Bitcoin. Obviously prices fluctuate but that doesn't mean it will not break the current threshold it's at. Well, it's only a prediction but I feel with those status it will affect how some new investors will want to approach Bitcoin because of this analysis. Either way I'm confident that in the next ten years, Bitcoin will grow to such a point that speculations like these will not be paid too much attention.

[Don Saga]

In the next ten years, that should be enough time for bitcoin to hit $500k, at least that's a bit achievable. I think they are being conservative with their predictions and it's very possible that Bitcoin would exceed that prediction. The next bull run could see bitcoin within 100k-200k or even more, and within that ten years we could see another bull run that could spike the price of bitcoin to $500k.

Is this achievable?

[asriloni]

I just see it as a minimum projection for bitcoin's potential growth. The fact btc growth from 60k to the its new ATH at 125k in just less than 12 months. So we still have bigger room to growth. So i think JP is just sticking on the safe case, but they still rate bitcoin's long term potential to be even hither than stock and gold.

So it's good endorse by them to promote bitcoin instead of bashing bitcoin like they did in the past. However, this long term forecase seems like just to lure more fishes to come, which is good.

[Bd officer]

The price of Bitcoin will not increase continuously like this. There will be both bull and bear seasons in the next 10 years. However, if you can hold for a long 10 years, it will be possible to get more than 10% annual return. According to your chart, the price of Bitcoin is predicted to be $215k after 10 years, but I think the price will be higher than that. Many are expecting 200k in the upcoming bull run, so in this case the price should be higher after 10 years. So I am waiting to see how much BTC reaches in the upcoming bull run. I see this as conservative.

[pooya87]

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

It is not conservative, it is wrong and I dare say it can even be considered bullshit!

Bitcoin is known to be too volatile and that's not going to change any time soon. And it will have both ups and downs so there can be years ahead where price goes down instead of up (like 2018) and the ups are going to be a lot bigger than 10%.

There is another factor that is usually forgotten or maybe intentionally ignored and that's the dollar factor. With dollar tanking and with its inevitable collapse on the horizons (a much worse version of 2008 collapse) every asset will shoot up to the moon. And something like bitcoin and gold that are considered stores of value will shoot up even more.
That means in the near future we should expect much bigger rises than just 10% annually!

[sergiorus]

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

Bitcoin is known to be too volatile and that's not going to change any time soon. And it will have both ups and downs so there can be years ahead where price goes down instead of up (like 2018) and the ups are going to be a lot bigger than 10%.

What do you want from them, they are just a big bank's arm responsible for posting regular forecasts of various assets. They are very rarely even accurate, let alone they never do a real deep research.

In this particular case they just applied the same standard ''10 years return forecast'' as they do with stocks, real estate, commodities etc. Accounting for the volatility, cycles, adoption/tokenisation and sudden retail manias would make the formula too complicated.

They aren't paid to be *right*, they are paid to just produce these forecasts. Hence they won't do more than bare minimum

[oll]

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

It is not conservative, it is wrong and I dare say it can even be considered bullshit!

Bitcoin is known to be too volatile and that's not going to change any time soon. And it will have both ups and downs so there can be years ahead where price goes down instead of up (like 2018) and the ups are going to be a lot bigger than 10%.

There is another factor that is usually forgotten or maybe intentionally ignored and that's the dollar factor. With dollar tanking and with its inevitable collapse on the horizons (a much worse version of 2008 collapse) every asset will shoot up to the moon. And something like bitcoin and gold that are considered stores of value will shoot up even more.
That means in the near future we should expect much bigger rises than just 10% annually!

Meanwhile, their CEO, Jamie Dimon, previously had less-than-flattering opinions about Bitcoin and crypto. In 2017, he even said that crypto was worse than tulips. It's good that he changed his mind; maybe something has changed in their empty pumpkins?

Actually, when reading such predictions, you need to know that JPMorgan doesn't take inflation into account, which who knows what the future will be. And that's an important caveat. You can try to predict it now, but who knows what will happen later, especially in 10-15 years.

And after visiting their website, I confirmed that this is indeed true: they don't take inflation into account. JPMorgan writes: All returns are nominal.
So, I find their forecasts a bit funny.

[Zoomic]

To Bitcoin holders who's witnessed it's performance over the previous cycles, JP Morgan's 10% annual prediction might sound low. However, we might also say he has a point if we consider the size of the market today compared to its early years.

For an asset that's become larger in it's market cap, it's much harder to sustain the same percentage gains of the past cycles.

Bitcoin is still growing and becoming more globalized as the day goes by so we can't really be sure of our prediction. Like @Oshosondy suggested, I think the performance of Bitcoin in the next bull run will tell if JP Morgan's prediction is relative market reality or not.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

I can guess that he made this prediction based on some popular opinion saying that bitcoin is not volatile because it is now mature. On the table below, the approximate gain keeps getting lower, so JPMorgan is speculating that by 2036 (10 year from now) bitcoin will only gain 100%?


Bull run        |Starting low | Peak price | Approx, gain
2010–2011    |  $0.05         | $32             |  63,900%
2011–2013    |  $2              | $1,150        | 57,400%
2015–2017    |  $172         | $19,920       | 11,500%
2018–2021    | $3,200        | $68,790      | 2,050%
2022–2025    |$15,480      |$126,200     | 715%


I don't agree with him, bitcoin might not have the same volatility as previous years but the volatility have not become so low that bitcoin will only do 100% in 10 years. By all odds, his speculation is wrong and time will proof it. In this incoming bull season, I am even speculating that price could surpass $180k.

[Asiska02]

I don’t think the curve on that chart will do justice to how Bitcoin would have improved over the next few years as illustrated in the timeframe on the chart. Bitcoin looks to do more than that and I am convinced beyond doubt that the next bull run and next ATH will show how conservative their prediction is. Bitcoin is on an uptrend trajectory and the past few years, it has shown how significantly it can grow at every bull season recording and 100% increase in ATH.

[Yamifoud]

we still don't forget.

Jamie Dimon's Criticism of Bitcoin Over the Years

2017 – Called Bitcoin a "fraud", compared it to tulip mania, and predicted its collapse. He also threatened to fire JPMorgan traders who traded Bitcoin.

2021 – Described Bitcoin as "worthless".

2022 – Called Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies "decentralized Ponzi schemes".

2023 – Called Bitcoin a "hyped-up fraud".

2024 – Compared Bitcoin to a "pet rock", suggesting it had little practical use.

[Zaguru12]

we still don't forget.

Jamie Dimon's Criticism of Bitcoin Over the Years

2017 – Called Bitcoin a "fraud", compared it to tulip mania, and predicted its collapse. He also threatened to fire JPMorgan traders who traded Bitcoin.

2021 – Described Bitcoin as "worthless".

2022 – Called Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies "decentralized Ponzi schemes".

2023 – Called Bitcoin a "hyped-up fraud".

2024 – Compared Bitcoin to a "pet rock", suggesting it had little practical use.

Even this 10% annual prediction is just another hate statement against bitcoin because how can company which has always been warning people of bitcoin volatility taking it down to low price do not consider same volatility for bitcoin in terms of increasing price this just like them saying ‘yes we believe that bitcoin will rise but it won’t rise that much’ it’s a way to just discourage their people to look into other assets.

To be honest yes bitcoin will continue to reduce in volatility but there is a long period of time to say that it will tajd bitcoin 10 years for a 2x move, even if the volatility is reducing bitcoin will mostly likely get more than 5x in the next 10 years.

[bhadz]

10% annual return is what makes this prediction quite a bit odd for me. Bitcoin isn't the same as the traditional financial assets growth. Although if he's projecting in the long term, we can all agree that in the end and in all of that period then bitcoin's doesn't have any other direction but to go upwards.

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

It's a safe prediction since they've got a huge amount of money invested in it. I think this is what they propose to their board for the long term profitability they have over the next course.

[traderethereum]

I guess JPMorgan makes a rational prediction for a long term rather than predicting so high. But anything could happens to Bitcoin and personally I expect Bitcoin will be more than $150k in the next bull run.

But we don't have to think serious because that is prediction that could happens and not happen. That will not our concern because we focus with accumulating more.

[OgNasty]

10% annual return is what makes this prediction quite a bit odd for me. Bitcoin isn't the same as the traditional financial assets growth. Although if he's projecting in the long term, we can all agree that in the end and in all of that period then bitcoin's doesn't have any other direction but to go upwards.

Do you agree with their prediction or do you think they are too conservative?

It's a safe prediction since they've got a huge amount of money invested in it. I think this is what they propose to their board for the long term profitability they have over the next course.

They also predict something like an 8% return on stocks and they’ve been returning double that much lately. I think the fact they expect the best returns is the takeaway here, not the %. Obviously they have to try and be realistic. We’ll see if it turns out to be true or not, but it’s definitely a positive thing to expect this.

[bhadz]

It's a safe prediction since they've got a huge amount of money invested in it. I think this is what they propose to their board for the long term profitability they have over the next course.

They also predict something like an 8% return on stocks and they’ve been returning double that much lately. I think the fact they expect the best returns is the takeaway here, not the %. Obviously they have to try and be realistic. We’ll see if it turns out to be true or not, but it’s definitely a positive thing to expect this.

Despite that there are some factors that can downturn the market, they're still expecting the best out of it. That's kind of odd to be honest if they're trying to predict the best return. But yes, that's the interesting fact here if it turns out that they were right all along. This is going to make them nostra of the market then. I like the transition of JP Morgan, from being a hater of Bitcoin and telling bad things about it several years ago to predicting a good stable annual return by analyzing and with the use of resources and indicators they have.