A 100% win rate is nearly a reality in prediction markets

[TheUltraElite]

Such a method of making small profits can be applied in sports betting if the gambler is really not ambitious. But it is not easy to handle such gains in every momentum. No wonder that out of 100 predictions he only lost 1x. I may need to give it a try but that guy's method for me beneficially doesn't really provide satisfaction.

Some of them might end up good because its a prediction market.

Still people will use any method available to them if the losses are significant and they just want to tide over the numbers and not make huge possible recoveries. There are people who are trying to make a livelihood out of these games and I dont recommend that any newbie out there.

Gambling should be done for fun and not for trying to make money in the long term.

[gracreavix]

Sounds like a good strategy, but doesn’t still change the fact that 100% win rate in prediction market / gambling is impossible. It’s only inside information that could push you closer to 100%.
The strategy seems sustainable, but if he’s not careful or becomes greedy, just one lose could cover a large part of his win.

[Nathrixxx]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is.

Sometimes I laugh and shake my head when I see the way people take prediction market to be a honest experience in having fun, when did know that the true experience in this is by gambling and not in prediction markets, there's no phone in anything that stand to give you depression with lack of clarity to the process involved, I still don't see what can make me have fun in prediction market when I don't even think of considering playing it in the first place.

[Queen uloma]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is.

Sometimes I laugh and shake my head when I see the way people take prediction market to be a honest experience in having fun, when did know that the true experience in this is by gambling and not in prediction markets, there's no phone in anything that stand to give you depression with lack of clarity to the process involved, I still don't see what can make me have fun in prediction market when I don't even think of considering playing it in the first place.

Honestly i don’t really understand the excitement that people get from prediction markets. I think gambling itself is suppose to be for entertainment but it doesn’t mean that every platform that involves predicting outcome will automatically give someone the same experience.

For me I don’t really see anything interesting about prediction markets and I don’t even have any interest in trying it.

[Dareo]

-snip-
Honestly i don’t really understand the excitement that people get from prediction markets. I think gambling itself is suppose to be for entertainment but it doesn’t mean that every platform that involves predicting outcome will automatically give someone the same experience.

For me I don’t really see anything interesting about prediction markets and I don’t even have any interest in trying it.

Actually the prediction market is not a form of entertainment for everyone, and this is quite natural. But it can be interesting for people who like analyzing politics, sports or events around the world, In this case it is not only an opportunity to get something for yourself, but to check whether your views were right. Of course if there is money, there is also a risk. So if you do not like it, just avoid it but don’t underestimate other people’s interests.

[BALIK]

it's only insiders that can be on the safest side when it comes to prediction market

Insider information will certainly give some trader an unfair advantage.

However I believe it was not correct to say that being an insider is only way to achieve consistent profit. If any trader can analyse public information faster and better than others. If he can spot incorrect pricing in market. And one can provide liquidity by placing any limit order. These also create competitive advantage.

So, I wouldn't rule out possibility of insider advantage. However just because any trader shows 99% win rate, it doesn't mean they are insider. It is possible to be this certain only by examining his trading history, execution and actual PnL.

[boyptc]

His volume and all time profit/loss tells that he's extraordinary and the strategy that he does for doing small bets really works for him.

So, I wouldn't rule out possibility of insider advantage. However just because any trader shows 99% win rate, it doesn't mean they are insider. It is possible to be this certain only by examining his trading history, execution and actual PnL.

Having an insider is a great advantage.

But after looking at his past predictions, it's about price predictions, basketball, baseball games and even a counter strike 2 game.

For which these games doesn't have insiders at all or if there is, it's hard to spot that they do it in these prominent tournaments.

[Smartprofit]

it's only insiders that can be on the safest side when it comes to prediction market

Insider information will certainly give some trader an unfair advantage.

However I believe it was not correct to say that being an insider is only way to achieve consistent profit. If any trader can analyse public information faster and better than others. If he can spot incorrect pricing in market. And one can provide liquidity by placing any limit order. These also create competitive advantage.

So, I wouldn't rule out possibility of insider advantage. However just because any trader shows 99% win rate, it doesn't mean they are insider. It is possible to be this certain only by examining his trading history, execution and actual PnL.

As far as I understand, one of the main difficulties with betting on Polymarket is that, in addition to the brief terms and conditions, there's a detailed description of the conditions under which a bet is considered a winner or loser.

It's like in public contracts, where the most important details are written at the end in small print (readable only under a magnifying glass).

Therefore, an expert bettor determined to win a bet on the outcome of a specific event must carefully study these detailed terms and conditions. Understanding them is often complex and requires highly developed analytical skills.

I read a story on a forum about a player who correctly predicted the new men's Ballon d'Or winner. As far as I understand, making the correct prediction was very difficult, but his excellent analytical skills and long-standing interest in football helped him... Polymarket platforms offer a great opportunity to profit from understanding how our world works. It's really quite interesting! It seems that in the 21st century, everything can be digitized and turned into a product, even understanding how our world works.  In fact, if you think about it, this understanding is of enormous fundamental value. And it's great that it can be monetized!💁

[MorganaX]

Sounds like a good strategy, but doesn’t still change the fact that 100% win rate in prediction market / gambling is impossible. It’s only inside information that could push you closer to 100%.
The strategy seems sustainable, but if he’s not careful or becomes greedy, just one lose could cover a large part of his win.

There is a simple notion we all must understand and that's the fact that the gambling industry wasn't designed to favor anyone so no matter what technique or strategy you have devised up in your head is simply temporary and there is absolutely no way to get a 100% win rate, I can even say an 80% win rate is a mere fallacy that I see online, because that's only where you can see people bragging of high win rate with lots of photos backing it up and some of them are fake as fuck.

[Franklyn-wood]

This approach is basically picking up pennies from each bet, and to an extent it may seem to be an excellent strategy, not until you hit one crazy loss that wipes off 20-60 previous wins in just one trade. I’ve used similar strategy before, but it gambling, and this only proved to be fun while it lasted, I learned the hard way though. The guy’s 99% streak is indeed impressive but that shouldn’t be mistaken for a perfect approach because it still doesn’t change the low edge rule you know because the moment the edge shrinks, everything might basically fall apart.

The higher the streak the higher the risk involved, it's important to know that increasing the amount of a bet doesn't guarantee that luck will shine on the gambler. There is the confidence that gabler's have that keeps me wondering how they came to that believe, that with continues increase or doubling there stake. A friend to my colleagues has been Gambling until he won about a million plus, instead of investing the money he used it to play more selected games which leads to loss major parts of the total money he won in the previous games he played

[abel1337]

This approach is basically picking up pennies from each bet, and to an extent it may seem to be an excellent strategy, not until you hit one crazy loss that wipes off 20-60 previous wins in just one trade. I’ve used similar strategy before, but it gambling, and this only proved to be fun while it lasted, I learned the hard way though. The guy’s 99% streak is indeed impressive but that shouldn’t be mistaken for a perfect approach because it still doesn’t change the low edge rule you know because the moment the edge shrinks, everything might basically fall apart.

The higher the streak the higher the risk involved, it's important to know that increasing the amount of a bet doesn't guarantee that luck will shine on the gambler. There is the confidence that gabler's have that keeps me wondering how they came to that believe, that with continues increase or doubling there stake. A friend to my colleagues has been Gambling until he won about a million plus, instead of investing the money he used it to play more selected games which leads to loss major parts of the total money he won in the previous games he played

It only applies to casino games since there is a thing we called "house edge", casino still has the upper hand in terms of odds and the longer you play is the higher chance you lose but it doesn't applies to prediction markets. There is no house edge on prediction markets. I believe that you can maintain a 99% win rate for a year as long as you don't do any mistakes or have a very bad luck.

You can still win so many times with a very minimal risk by betting on those certain outcomes events. This is effective for some users but the thing is, you are risking thousands of dollars to earn a very small amount of money which is why those who are doing this kind of strategy has a really big volume. One loss for them will wipe them out. These kind of players spends time finding markets that has a certain results and that is where their efforts shows. They don't need a very high analytical skills to do this, they only need common sense, a good amount of money and the perseverance to find certain outcome events.

[greysonz]

Of course, Polymarket and other prediction markets can't track every single attempt at fraud. Someone manipulated heat indicators with a hair dryer, someone else bet on Maduro's capture, and so on. And just imagine how many different individual examples there are of people cheating on the prediction markets. There are countless areas of life where inside information isn't obvious to the general public and to those who try to monitor it to ensure fair bets. But it's absolutely impossible to track all these cases. And there are hundreds and thousands of them! And only thanks to observers can we see those who aren't losing, and therefore are most likely cheating.

[Findingnemo]

100% win rate doesn't matter in gambling, one can have higher win rate while winning merely a very low amount but someone with 10% win rate probably can have 10x or even 100x more rewards than the other person. And we shouldn't have to assume that they have the insider information which can be true or just complete coincidence, what really matters is how much they are wagering on a high risky bets that determines whether they had any information or not.

[SuperBitMan]

This should serve as a real-world example to shift how many people perceive luck, or perhaps it suggests that prediction markets are no longer a matter of luck, as gambling is.

Sometimes I laugh and shake my head when I see the way people take prediction market to be a honest experience in having fun, when did know that the true experience in this is by gambling and not in prediction markets, there's no phone in anything that stand to give you depression with lack of clarity to the process involved, I still don't see what can make me have fun in prediction market when I don't even think of considering playing it in the first place.

Honestly i don’t really understand the excitement that people get from prediction markets. I think gambling itself is suppose to be for entertainment but it doesn’t mean that every platform that involves predicting outcome will automatically give someone the same experience.

For me I don’t really see anything interesting about prediction markets and I don’t even have any interest in trying it.

To some people gambling is a source of income and they depend on gambling to do some basic things in their life, it is not an entertainment or a game of fun for some people and that is why you see gambling addiction,  they became addicted because they are trying so much to become rich through it.

LOL, it is not a must that you will be interested in something that orders finds interesting, we are different and what you may find interesting and fun may not be to me or others.

[WhoYouCantKill]

To some people gambling is a source of income and they depend on gambling to do some basic things in their life, it is not an entertainment or a game of fun for some people and that is why you see gambling addiction,  they became addicted because they are trying so much to become rich through it.

LOL, it is not a must that you will be interested in something that orders finds interesting, we are different and what you may find interesting and fun may not be to me or others.

The real problem begins the moment that players start seeing or considering gambling as a reliable way of generating revenue or making a living. The moment people becomes too dependent on the gambling for their daily needs, it becomes more of a job than merely a game, and walking away becomes more harder than it should be, especially after they’ve lost some money. There’s a very huge distinction between merely gambling occasionally for entertainment and having that mindset and feeling that you gotta gamble for survival.

[Hypnosis00]

The real problem begins the moment that players start seeing or considering gambling as a reliable way of generating revenue or making a living. The moment people becomes too dependent on the gambling for their daily needs, it becomes more of a job than merely a game, and walking away becomes more harder than it should be, especially after they’ve lost some money. There’s a very huge distinction between merely gambling occasionally for entertainment and having that mindset and feeling that you gotta gamble for survival.

Then they punished themselves for believing it was high. A gambler may win and make a huge profit from this, but having a higher winning rate doesn't mean winning is always possible. And perhaps this is the wrong mindset that gamblers have. Yeah, we all have the information, reliable resources, etc., that help us make a good decision on where to place our money. But we must not forget that none of these guarantee winning, as losing is possible as well.

When a wrong mindset develops in our minds, it is difficult for us to seek reality.

[fighter2627]

Is this really real 99% win rate and then a $1 loss in trading? On my part, it seems hard to believe that there are traders like this who can do this.

Is this person still experiencing this? He is good at predicting, so how much amount is he betting on when he places a position in his prediction?
too be honest is really hard believe actually.

[sotelorene]

Is this really real 99% win rate and then a $1 loss in trading? On my part, it seems hard to believe that there are traders like this who can do this.

Is this person still experiencing this? He is good at predicting, so how much amount is he betting on when he places a position in his prediction?
too be honest is really hard believe actually.

Off course that can not be in trading because it is not even possible for someone to have a 90 percent winning rate talk more of 99 percent and even in gambling it is not possible maybe this can last for few weeks or months if the person is on winning streak and sometimes some people get so carried away because of a winning streak, they will began to feel like they are a genius, an expert untill they start losing and that feeling of a genius or expert will make them chase loss.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Sounds like a good strategy, but doesn’t still change the fact that 100% win rate in prediction market / gambling is impossible. It’s only inside information that could push you closer to 100%.
The strategy seems sustainable, but if he’s not careful or becomes greedy, just one lose could cover a large part of his win.

Sustainable and profitable are two very different things so no matter how sustainable this might seem right now it would be like like winning change which will likely get spent on something of little significance or lost to the next trade because no matter how certain you might think the outcome of something is there is always the chance that it will play out differently and winning 99 out of 100 times isn't a lucky level that everyone has, it might be working for the person OP mentioned but that doesn't mean it will work for the next person.

[WhoYouCantKill]

Then they punished themselves for believing it was high. A gambler may win and make a huge profit from this, but having a higher winning rate doesn't mean winning is always possible. And perhaps this is the wrong mindset that gamblers have. Yeah, we all have the information, reliable resources, etc., that help us make a good decision on where to place our money. But we must not forget that none of these guarantee winning, as losing is possible as well.

When a wrong mindset develops in our minds, it is difficult for us to seek reality.

I think one of the biggest issues with gambling is how easy it is to trick the human brain. The moment they experience a few consistent wins, their brain starts to make them feel like they have actually cracked the code, and the possibility of luck being a huge contributor to this is completely stricken off the picture. One fact that should be always remembered about gambling is that, no matter how much research you do or how effective you feel your strategy is, gambling will always find a way to take you by surprise. And that’s why it’s crucial to always have a realistic expectation when approaching gambling.