US midterm elections

The US midterm elections are on Tuesday, deciding control of the House and Senate, as well as state legislatures and governors.

US citizens are incredibly angry about the Iran war and the resulting economic effects. They're also not so keen on Trump's authoritarianism generally, the severity/broadness of the immigration crackdown, and the attacks on US allies. So Republicans are going to get absolutely smoked.

I predict that Democrats will win the House by perhaps a 35-seat margin, and will win the Senate 51-49. Of the highly-contested Senate races, I think that Democrats will win Alaska, Minnesota, Michigan, Texas, and Ohio (to my great annoyance, since Brown was one of the worst, most anti-crypto senators); Republicans will win Maine, Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Iowa. The final results for certain states such as Alaska, Michigan, and Maine might not be known until several days/weeks after the election.

Democrats winning Congress here is probably better than the alternative, since Republicans should be punished for not pushing back more strongly against Trump's insanity, especially the Iran war. Though I think that being constantly up against Democrats will make Trump even more authoritarian, aggressive, and unhinged for the remaining 2 years. Congress won't actually restrain him in any effective way. So 2027-2028 will be much like 2025-2026, but with even more craziness and even less constructive action.

Even though Democrats will do a lot of crypto-related investigations using their Congressional investigatory powers, 2027-2028 will probably be a positive environment for Bitcoin, since government/geopolitical instability makes Bitcoin look more attractive, and Trump will largely continue with his pro-crypto policies. Democrats won't actually be able to pass any significant anti-crypto laws. But Democrats are going to be out for blood when they take power in 2029, and they strongly associate Trump with crypto, so they might be even more hostile to crypto than Biden was -- since markets are forward-looking, this could start to affect Bitcoin prices starting in 2028.