US midterm elections

[theymos]

The US midterm elections are on Tuesday, deciding control of the House and Senate, as well as state legislatures and governors.

US citizens are incredibly angry about the Iran war and the resulting economic effects. They're also not so keen on Trump's authoritarianism generally, the severity/broadness of the immigration crackdown, and the attacks on US allies. So Republicans are going to get absolutely smoked.

I predict that Democrats will win the House by perhaps a 35-seat margin, and will win the Senate 51-49. Of the highly-contested Senate races, I think that Democrats will win Alaska, Minnesota, Michigan, Texas, and Ohio (to my great annoyance, since Brown was one of the worst, most anti-crypto senators); Republicans will win Maine, Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Iowa. The final results for certain states such as Alaska, Michigan, and Maine might not be known until several days/weeks after the election.

Democrats winning Congress here is probably better than the alternative, since Republicans should be punished for not pushing back more strongly against Trump's insanity, especially the Iran war. Though I think that being constantly up against Democrats will make Trump even more authoritarian, aggressive, and unhinged for the remaining 2 years. Congress won't actually restrain him in any effective way. So 2027-2028 will be much like 2025-2026, but with even more craziness and even less constructive action.

Even though Democrats will do a lot of crypto-related investigations using their Congressional investigatory powers, 2027-2028 will probably be a positive environment for Bitcoin, since government/geopolitical instability makes Bitcoin look more attractive, and Trump will largely continue with his pro-crypto policies. Democrats won't actually be able to pass any significant anti-crypto laws. But Democrats are going to be out for blood when they take power in 2029, and they strongly associate Trump with crypto, so they might be even more hostile to crypto than Biden was -- since markets are forward-looking, this could start to affect Bitcoin prices starting in 2028.

[Ambatman]

- since markets are forward-looking, this could start to affect Bitcoin prices starting in 2028.

Well that will be 2028 AmBatman problem.
In summary the future isn't looking so bright
More scrutiny on privacy and more push for AML
Sigh well expected with all the dramas we passed through especially last year.

and Ohio (to my great annoyance, since Brown was one of the worst, most anti-crypto senators);

Well you are not the only one.
Fairshake have spent millions to make sure Brown doesn't win.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/10/21/congress/crypto-pac-ups-ohio-spending-to-55-million-in-push-to-crush-sherrod-brown-01131399

[Quickseller]

Over the past several election cycles, polls have overestimated support for Democrats by several points. If that continues this election cycle, and support for Democrats is overestimated by 3 points, Republicans could win both the House and Senate. Issues with polling probably deserves its own topic, but there have been several outright fraudulent polls this cycle, and polls fairly consistently overestimated support for the crazy extremists during the primaries.

The war with Iran was very poorly orchestrated and was not sold to the American people ahead of time, which made it less popular than it should be. Iran has been attacking Americans and American interests for 47 years, so the fact we are finally starting to attack them in 2026 is a failure of Western political leaders for over a generation. It is very disappointing to see many on the left and the media to effectively be on the side of our enemy.

I don't think Abduel will win in Michigan. The fact that he is not considered a fringe candidate and has more than token support in his party is concerning. It should be disqualifying to hold office for any Democrat unwilling to condemn him.

The shenanigans in Alaska are also concerning (and likely illegal). This is the second time in four cycles for the same Senate seat that a Democrat Senate candidate has a decent chance of winning, despite having little support by the population, especially considering how reliably Red Alaska is.

I think the fraud in places like MN, CA and NY will help Republicans, even outside of these states. Hilton will likely receive 5%+ more votes from voters in CA, but will end up losing after the late mail-in ballots are received.

A Democratic Congress has no power to set any real crypto policy, but their investigations and related innuendo will discourage investment in the sector, and will be more harmful than bad policy. Most crypto leaders have little/no PR experience and I think one of them will end up making a totally reasonable business practice look exceptionally bad in a public hearing in front of Congress, and hurt public sentiment in the process.

If Democrats win either the House or Senate, we will see a lot of government shutdowns over the budget. While it probably would be better if the majority of government bureaucrats were out of a job, the shutdowns are incredibly wasteful, as government employees get backpay after the shutdown is over, and typically end up working overtime to make up for their time off.


I think Republicans will keep, or even potentially expand their majority in the Senate, and Democrats will make gains in the House, but will have at best a very narrow majority of under 5 seats.

[Dreadboost]

But Democrats are going to be out for blood when they take power in 2029, and they strongly associate Trump with crypto, so they might be even more hostile to crypto than Biden was -- since markets are forward-looking, this could start to affect Bitcoin prices starting in 2028.

Which Democrats in the Senate can come out to say he hasn't benefited from crypto all these years? None of them can come out to say that.
Outside, they are anti-crypto, but inside they are the real crypto whales and individuals funding crypto projects worldwide.
Truth is, not all existing crypto-related laws will be removed if the Democrats take power in 2029. Some that have been a life-changing experience for them will be left untampered.