Who will Republicans nominate for 2028?

[legiteum]

https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr/republican-primary-winner

Hey folks,

I thought this might be an interesting ongoing discussion topic. Who do you think will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President, and why?

[BIT-BENDER]

I don't know if it would be interesting because right now Republicans has lost that interest they had and they have themselves to blame for the low interest and votes they are getting right now.
I think it should be JD Vance I don't know but I think it was something that had been planned before now but it's looking like Donald Trump hasn't yet fully given his endorsement but this could be wrong.

[legiteum]

To kick it off, I'll give you my current prediction, and rationale.

The good news is that if you believe my prediction here, you can get at least 50x your money on the prediction markets right now.

My pick: Donald Trump Jr.

Here's my rationale for this pick:

1. Donald Trump, even today, has absolute control over at least 50% of the GOP primary voting base.

2. Donald Trump cares about one thing: Donald Trump. He does not care about the USA. He does not care about the Republican Party. It is better for him to be the leader/influencer of a diminished party than an outsider of a more powerful one. (It is important to emphasize just how drastically different this is from previous presidents).

3. Because of these two things, Trump will be in a position to select the next Republican nominee for President. He controls 50%, and he can credibly threaten the remaining 50% that he will obliterate the party by running a third party candidate if they don't do what he says. (This is how he won the nomination himself last time).

4. It will be in Trump's best interest to have somebody he absolutely trusts as the GOP nominee. He will need somebody in the presidency who can pardon him and his family, and defend against the lawsuits and fines he will undoubtedly suffer if somebody he does not trust is in the White House.

5. Trump absolutely cannot trust any "normal" Republicans. There is a saying in Washington in the Trump years that the only politicians who hate Trump more than the Democrats are the Republicans.

6. The only one Trump can truly trust are his own family members. And the only reason he can trust them is for the same reason mob bosses can trust their colleagues: they are part of the criminality and thus he has leverage over them.

7. Therefore, Trump will choose his oldest son, Donald Jr. (I say this over the others since he's deeply vested in Trump's grifting ventures, and he's the most public of the family members--but this can change and perhaps it can be Eric or Jarrod as well).

8. Since Trump has absolute leverage over the party, the nominee will be Donald Trump Jr.

It's early days, se let's see how this ages . In particular, it will be interesting to see which of the assumptions above hold up, and which turn out to be wrong (if any!).

[legiteum]

I don't know if it would be interesting because right now Republicans has lost that interest they had and they have themselves to blame for the low interest and votes they are getting right now.
I think it should be JD Vance I don't know but I think it was something that had been planned before now but it's looking like Donald Trump hasn't yet fully given his endorsement but this could be wrong.

When asked about Vance earlier this year, Trump replied, "No, no, no, no, no.".  Here's a recent video of the same question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQQdxC4ujM8

And then there was that time Vance compared Trump to Hitler:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/jd-vance-once-compared-trump-hitler-now-they-are-running-mates-2024-07-15/

Trump didn't care about this since he has absolute control over Vance then and now. But that would no longer be the case if Vance became the nominee. There's simply no chance Trump could trust Vance not to screw him over (and Vance almost undoubtedly would, to be clear).

[Agbamoni]

I think it should be JD Vance I don't know but I think it was something that had been planned before now but it's looking like Donald Trump hasn't yet fully given his endorsement but this could be wrong.

Isn't it obvious that many Americans no longer support the Republicans for President all because of Trump?

Trump prefers his secretary of state, Marco Rubio. He has repeatedly praised him and has established Marco in the minds of the Republicans as a good president. JD Vance is the current Vice President. He has a better s

[o48o]

https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr/republican-primary-winner

Hey folks,

I thought this might be an interesting ongoing discussion topic. Who do you think will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President, and why?

Probably J.D. Vance, because that's their most obvious choice that people have already invested in, it in same way Biden was a choice for democrats

Which means that basically anyone from democrats can beat him, unless his opponent is a woman (sadly), because people in USA must hate women. They have now twice chosen the most heinous criminal and man of lowest moral values over a woman.

Pros and cons with Vance is that he is well known, which is actually the part that hurts him most. He doesn't have any charisma and people see him as spineless turncoat. Also, there are some unconfirmed rumors about sofas he has (or has not) been with.

[Franctoshi]

Even if Donald Trump controls the entire Republican Party this much, I think in 2028 things would be different, because I don't see how Donald would rule, and afterward he will want his son to succeed him. When has the Republican Party and the presidential seat turned into a family thing?
In my perspective, JD Vance would have more chances of succeeding him, and even the rest of the Republican Party members would want to work with JD Vance more than they would agree to work with Donald Trump Jr's Republican Party presidential ticket.

[legiteum]

Just to try to add a little context to the conversation, I had ChatGPT whip this graphic up.

If you think the it has anything to do with logic, or reason, or what "most Americans want", then you don't understand the US political system. 

Nobody thought Trump had a chance in the first place because people made this same mistake...

[Zaka1221]

2028 Republican nomination is largely going to be dependent on who can continue to support Trump while also they appealing the voters who want a different direction for the party. Just being close to Trump is not going to be enough to win the nomination. I think JD Vance is ahead of the other potential candidates. Because I think she is already vice president, and he has a very strong connection with the political base of Trump. I also think that Marco and Ron DeSantis could be very strong challengers, especially if the Republicans decide that they want a very fresh approach after the recent midterm setback. I think that the nominee is going to be the person who is going to unite different Republican factions rather than just simply being dependent on the endorsement of Trump.

[TheButterZone]

Another Democrat In Actual Fact.

[legiteum]

2028 Republican nomination is largely going to be dependent on who can continue to support Trump while also they appealing the voters who want a different direction for the party.

It's going to depend on what Republican primary voters think. Republican primary voters are NOT:

• All Americans
• All Voters
• All Republican voters

Very, very few Americans vote in the primary elections, and the ones who do are the "hard cores" who have strong opinions about candidates. These are the voters who nominated Trump for president three times.

Just being close to Trump is not going to be enough to win the nomination.

Are you sure about that? I mean, it could be true, and I'm waiting to see the polling in a few weeks to see how Trump looks, but he's never lost his base, even after he attacked the US Capitol.

I think that the nominee is going to be the person who is going to unite different Republican factions rather than just simply being dependent on the endorsement of Trump.

To win the nomination last time, Trump "united" Republicans by telling them that if they don't nominate him, he will create a new "MAGA Party" and take away a third of their voters, leaving them unable to win absolutely anything. Trump's power was that he doesn't care about the Republican party, and it's better for himself personally to be the leader of a losing party than an outsider in a winning party.

[free-bit.co.in]

I also looked into this after the midterms. From what I found, JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr are the three names that come up the most.

Personally I reckon Vance get the GOP nod.

But tbh, whoever it is probably does not matter anymore. Given the midterm result, with the Dems flipping both chambers. There is a good chance the 48th president will be a Democrat.

[legiteum]

I also looked into this after the midterms. From what I found, JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr are the three names that come up the most.

Personally I reckon Vance get the GOP nod.

But tbh, whoever it is probably does not matter anymore. Given the midterm result, with the Dems flipping both chambers. There is a good chance the 48th president will be a Democrat.

I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Demos will win in 2028 unless the situation changes drastically. Republicans just lost Texas by 10 points in statewide elections. They would have to perform a massive turn around to win in Texas, and they cannot win without Texas.

The question being answered in this thread will make a big difference though. If it's a candidate like Trump Jr. they will have ZERO chance, but maybe a candidate like DeSantis might be able to bring some of their old voters back. But remember that Republican primary votes don't care about this. They have shown time and time again that "electability" is not important to them--they just want the candidate they like the best, not who they think others will like.

[programmer3666]

https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr/republican-primary-winner

Hey folks,

I thought this might be an interesting ongoing discussion topic. Who do you think will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President, and why?

Unless they will nominate the pope, they will not win that presidential election, because  they likes or Marco Rubio who were supposed to be a viable candidate are now losing serious popularity due to Trumps bad decision making and political blunders. The only way any Republican nominee gets anything close to acceptance by the people, is if they distance themselves from Trump and appeal to people's emotions by becoming a critic in the party.

[Fiatless]

I also looked into this after the midterms. From what I found, JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr are the three names that come up the most.

Personally I reckon Vance get the GOP nod.

But tbh, whoever it is probably does not matter anymore. Given the midterm result, with the Dems flipping both chambers. There is a good chance the 48th president will be a Democrat.

From JD Vance subtle criticism of Donald Trump after the midterm elections, it is clear that he has started paving his political path. Openly saying that the war in Iran contributed to Republican losses in the election is like saying the war was a blunder. There are also some Republicans who are disgruntled by the failure of the party that might want to support the Vice President in his bid to win the primaries.

Trump still controls the Republican Party. So there are indications that a candidate who gets his backing will emerge as the presidential flagbearer in the next elections.

[legiteum]

Trump still controls the Republican Party. So there are indications that a candidate who gets his backing will emerge as the presidential flagbearer in the next elections.

I agree that Trump will choose the next nominee. I simply can't see it happening any other way.

As to who he will choose, understand that if Trump has to choose between:

A: The Republicans winning the presidency, but him not being able to trust the nominee;

or,

B: The Republicans losing the presidency, but Trump still being in control of the party.

In my opinion, he will definitely choose B.

[Quickseller]

I don’t think the next cycle will attract a particularly strong lineup of republican candidates. The next president will have a hard time passing legislation due to the senate being solidly democrat until at least 2030, and they may even have difficulty getting their cabinet confirmed. So even with a strong mandate, they will pretty much be a lame duck on day one.

That doesn’t mean that the republican candidate will lose. I’m sure that Democrats will nominate a lunatic and they won’t be able to motivate their base with Trump as he’s leaving office.

[legiteum]

I don’t think the next cycle will attract a particularly strong lineup of republican candidates. The next president will have a hard time passing legislation due to the senate being solidly democrat until at least 2030, and they may even have difficulty getting their cabinet confirmed. So even with a strong mandate, they will pretty much be a lame duck on day one.

Based on last week's results, and the fact that Republicans have very poor candidates right now (who are all welded to Trump), it's unlikely Republicans will win the presidency in 2028.

Hence the next president, who, right now at least, looks like it will be a Democrat, will have a very easy time passing legislation since Congress will be Democrat too.

That doesn’t mean that the republican candidate will lose. I’m sure that Democrats will nominate a lunatic and they won’t be able to motivate their base with Trump as he’s leaving office.

Based on the candidates who won across the country last week, the Democrats do not appear to be interested in nominating a "lunatic". Indeed, the candidates this cycle from the Democrats have been very centrist and moderate for the most part, particularly in more balanced states that are likely to produce the winning candidate for the Democrats.

The Democratic front-runner today is John Ossoff, who is the senator from Georgia, which is traditionally a Republican stronghold. Ossoff won his race by appealing to both sides.