Does your country have a version of prediction market, or is one coming up?

[Iranus]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market?

If PAGCOR deems this to be unauthorized gambling then it is outright illegal. And if SEC does not recognize it as security then it cannot possibly be registered as an exchange in your country.
Besides, 80% of global trading volume on Polymarket or Kalshi comes from election related betting. So, if local platform in Philippines list political event or election then they could immediately face strict law of Commission on Elections. As far as I know, they have completely banned betting on election.
Another thing is debts arising from local, unlicensed gambling are legally void. If any issues arise regarding event result or if payout are withheld on local site then users will have no legal protection.

[alegotardo]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

Brazil has take a step backwards... Until a few months ago, online casinos were allowed, now even that is no longer possible.

So the prediction market will certainly not find room here, even though they still have not been clearly classified under a specific regulatory framework... whether it is a financial derivative, a betting service or something completely different.

Anyway, we had presidential elections just a few days ago and unfortunately the president managed to get re elected, so I think the Brazilian government is unlikely to "take a more permissive path".

[el che]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

...

We don't have a legal local prediction market here in Argentina because the system is stuck in a battle between provincial boards and financial regulators, also there is nationwide ISP blocks against Polymarket for running as an unlicensed casino. Because of this legal mess, local startups can't launch, so Argentines use Polymarket through VPNs and Web3 wallets. Those who just want sports or general betting stick to offshore crypto sites to dodge the regulatory hassle.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Nah, no chance in Japan. Recently they are going harder against any gambling websites. Most sites I used frequently this year are now blocked when I try to open them. The only option is a VPN. So when they are cracking down more and more against online gambling I don't see any chance they will create their own version of any form of prediction market website. I mean I get it, it's all gambling and it's kind of strictly forbidden in here. Funny enough they allow horse/boat/bike racing tracks where you can go and place bets, and then of course also the most silly game, Pachinko which is operating in a kind of grey zone. Other than that there is nothing official here, only underground games you could find.

[Mrbluntzy]

My country has 5 five  different local prediction market, I didn't know until this year but what I understand is that some of the company were not formally offering prediction market but they just recently start offering it probably because of how there have been a boom in prediction market. I have not used any of those company and won't want to mention their name since I am not doing ads for them. My country does not regulate this companies as a traditional financial market for investment but rather they classified it as a gaming activity company. If gambling is actually legal in your country, they should allow those prediction market to launch.

[rachael9385]

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Regulation is the biggest challenge if most countries decided to create their own local prediction market, meanwhile if predictions markets are active, if there will be opportunities and the events will only be based on its local country, for example there's a prediction market in Nigeria, the upcoming election even will be there and many other upcoming events and activities too.

In Nigeria, there's are some prediction market that I know, which are:
1, https://batiwi.com

2, https://www.bayse.markets

3, https://nigeriaprediction.com

4, https://www.moyrad.com

I have not used any of these, but I believe few of them have a lot of top events to bet on.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Regulation is the biggest challenge if most countries decided to create their own local prediction market,

Inasmuch as I am not inclined to playing prediction market, I also see the regulators being in the major challenges they are going to face if this is going to take place as a major event in some countries, the demand will be too high to the extent that the operators will fail for frustrated to comply with their policy, maybe this and many more challenges are part of the reasons why we couldn't achieve seeing a number of prediction market platforms in some countries to that extent.

[_act_]

There is no gambling site in my country that is operating locally that I know of that is has prediction markets. If they start having such a market, it will be a good thing. But I think that more exchanges are having prediction markets than how gambling sites are intending to have it which could be maybe due to regulations.

[moneystery]

Unfortunately, my government still considers that market predictions are gambling, so there are no local prediction markets here, and even all access to global prediction markets is blocked. So for people who want to play, they need to enable a VPN or use DNS if they want to access those sites. 
But seeing that platforms like DraftKing want to enter your market means that regulations in your country are starting to look at legalizing prediction markets. That's good news for local users who want to play in a legal prediction market.

[Odusko]

Before now I was more focused on prediction markets, which are popular, and did not even know my country had some locally licensed ones. I just searched because of this topic and noticed that we have 2sabihub and busha, which I only knew was into exchange, but I never knew they were into prediction too, and seervue and all of them are set and have the upcoming 2027 Nigeria presidential elections on their options.

One reason why why most people are not even aware of these local prediction market is that, the influx of the more popular foreign prediction market has made it look like there are no local prediction market in the country. Just as you have said I am even just hearing about some of these local based prediction market are actually licenced, maybe I will try use these local casinos the more, I feel like using them is like promoting your own.

One thing that took people attention is the hype and wave that came with the introduction of polymarket a predictions market that came with so much hypes that made it seems that polymarket is the king and image of predictions market but that is not the reality as many other platforms render that services of predictions market long before Polymarket made its debut, which changed everything and covered other prediction market providers.

[Kelward]

Before now I was more focused on prediction markets, which are popular, and did not even know my country had some locally licensed ones. I just searched because of this topic and noticed that we have 2sabihub and busha, which I only knew was into exchange, but I never knew they were into prediction too, and seervue and all of them are set and have the upcoming 2027 Nigeria presidential elections on their options.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

The country is strict with gambling, but if those behind the prediction market that is to come to live have some good political backing, it will be possible. Besides, Polymarket and Kalshi are also available in some places that are not all gambling friendly.

I didn't also know that there are prediction platforms in Nigeria, I did a search on Google and found a couple of them, it shows that prediction market is becoming very popular because of the varieties of events that players can bet or trade on. I only knew about kalshi, Polymarket and a few others which are well known internationally, I believe that with time more local prediction sites would spring up and what they need is popularity in their licenced jurisdictions. I expect more gambling sites and exchanges to enter into the prediction market because of it's profitability, governments will also benefit from their profits through taxations.

[Cantsay]

Yeah, in my country we already have "Signal" which was launched by Busha, a local exchange in Nigeria and is licensed by Lagos state Lottery and Gaming Authority. From the licensing provider we can see it is treated as gambling by the state regulators. it was launched this year around August.

I actually came to this thread because I wanted to know about the Nigeria prediction market, and I am just seeing Signal by Busha for the first time. I have known Busha for quite some time now, but never knew that they were involved in the prediction market.

I tried searching for Signal, but only the Busha app came up, and when I registered there, I couldn't get any information about the Signal app. I don't know if there is something I need to know about it because I am finding it difficult to locate the Signal site.

[Moreno233]

Unfortunately, my government still considers that market predictions are gambling, so there are no local prediction markets here, and even all access to global prediction markets is blocked. So for people who want to play, they need to enable a VPN or use DNS if they want to access those sites. 
But seeing that platforms like DraftKing want to enter your market means that regulations in your country are starting to look at legalizing prediction markets. That's good news for local users who want to play in a legal prediction market.

Does that mean that gambling is banned in your country? If your government consider prediction market as gambling and therefore block the IPs, then it means that gambling is forbidden there.

My country is gambling friendly and some of the popular gambling companies have offices in my country but I'm yet to see any prediction market open offices in my country. I believe that with time we will see that because the market is expanding rapidly.

[Captain Corporate]

I still think many people are not used to prediction market like casino games and sport betting. I don't know for other continents but one of the most used gambling is sports betting because of the love of bets then followed by casino games and then predictions market. The decline in prediction market is due to the fact that the event listed on some of the popular predictions market is above their understanding, some people knows nothing about what is happening in other place, it will be a waste of money to predict what you don't know.

Even though prediction markets are not yet that popular, but they are getting a lot of traction nowadays. Major platforms already have very high valuation even though it is still a pretty new form of gambling. Kalshi is currently valued at $40B or above. The overall valuation of the prediction markets in the coming years is projected to reach $240B within the next couple of years or so, which is huge. Right now, it is true that people are more into sports betting, and that is also because sports betting has been around for a very long time, and it is also because the people who love sports tend to make bets on sports events.

Another pretty valid reason why sports betting is and probably will stay more popular than prediction markets is because in sports betting, there is a possibility of a person actually making good predictions and making some money from that, because if you have sports knowledge and you can analyse teams and games, you can make better predictions, whereas when it comes to prediction markets, it's basically pure gambling, your knowledge or anything doesn't work, all you have to do is make wild guesses and pray that they come true.

[DPHOR]

From the country I am coming from they do not have any plans of building their predictions market or even thinking of such, neither do they restrict people from gambling on the prediction market.
In general my country permits the use of gambling site and platform since they also have some share percentage as taxation from betting companies.
This, I can't completely judge or know whether if someone already in the country or maybe the government could be having a plans to have one.

[Mr_Brilliant$]

My country has 5 five  different local prediction market, I didn't know until this year but what I understand is that some of the company were not formally offering prediction market but they just recently start offering it probably because of how there have been a boom in prediction market. I have not used any of those company and won't want to mention their name since I am not doing ads for them. My country does not regulate this companies as a traditional financial market for investment but rather they classified it as a gaming activity company. If gambling is actually legal in your country, they should allow those prediction market to launch.

five. wooh. ooh, reading through properly, i found out that they were not offering it before and all of a sudden because of the popularity of polymarket and kalasi they also dive into it. Then i won't classify them as prediction market because they were first into gambling services and made a switch or added prediction market into their platform. Surprised your government called them gaming activity company. What a funny name for gambling company. I hope they don't allow kids bet there with that kind of name they gave betting platform.

[EluguHcman]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

Yeah, in my country we already have "Signal" which was launched by Busha, a local exchange in Nigeria and is licensed by Lagos state Lottery and Gaming Authority. From the licensing provider we can see it is treated as gambling by the state regulators.

I am a Nigerian and I don't have knowledge about this so called local local prediction exchange with the service. Maybe because I have not been following up local news with the predictions market through.
Nevertheless, the local license providers being categorized the prediction market as gambling is not bad at all too because from my own views, since it all involves wagering on uncertainty outcomes or prediction.

With all the risks and decision making involved including strategies, I am convinced that whether betting or prediction market is gambling.

[Davidvictorson]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

This brought a realization to me that we don’t have anything like this in my country. It is true that the prediction market is trending and making waves right now but the two starters Polymarket and kalshi are already far ahead.

Back to my country, I don’t think we’d be seeing a prediction market soon because the casinos and gambling industry is still grabbing the attention of the people.

[Nwada001]

So, do your local bettors go for local prediction markets or global ones? If there are more local versions of prediction markets, do you think the market share of global prediction markets will shrink because of preferences, because the predictions will likely be about local news and scenes?
This is very interesting if every country where gambling is legal will have its own local versions.

I don’t know about others, but for me personally, I don’t use any of our local prediction markets, and I barely hear about them, as they spend little trying to gain exposure. We go for the platforms that offer a wide range of options, which I believe platforms here will have a very limited offer, and the volume will be less compared to the popular ones.

[aioc]

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

True, and even if they want to get a gambling license in the country, I don't think they'll be able to. I mean, if I remember correctly, PAGCOR is still not giving out new gambling licenses.

But if these two up and coming new local prediction markets have some backing or are being financed by top names or corporations, there's a big possibility that they will be granted new licenses; we all know how politics plays out as a big role in shaping policies with regard to giving licenses.

So far, the two Philippine up-and-coming prediction markets did not provide the people or the group that handles them, but once we know, we can easily tell if they are going to get a license from the government.