Does your country have a version of prediction market, or is one coming up?

[danherbias07]

None for now.

I don't think my country will be injecting prediction markets into their gambling application just yet because the knowledge behind it is very low. I believe they do not even have any idea what is going on, and the government will probably just let it stay that way.
Governments have very different ideas behind AI or gambling industries. I think we will have to wait before they can come up with a rule that will either prevent or allow other gambling markets to come in.

[Taskford]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Interesting, good to see the fame of prediction market extend on local markets now.

But the biggest challenges they might face is the local regulation. Since as search, there's no local prediction market got a license on Philippines. Maybe if they push it and try to operate as legal in that country then its good.

Also well let just find out if they succeed when they officially launch their site.

[Dickiy]

For now in my country the prediction market is still included in the gambling category so there is no room for free to operate. Although the financial flows are large and quite lucrative, the government, the people decide to resist, the impact of addiction is greater and cannot yet be balanced with a balanced income.

[Nightwatchmare]

Before now I was more focused on prediction markets, which are popular, and did not even know my country had some locally licensed ones. I just searched because of this topic and noticed that we have 2sabihub and busha, which I only knew was into exchange, but I never knew they were into prediction too, and seervue and all of them are set and have the upcoming 2027 Nigeria presidential elections on their options.

I did not know Nigeria had locally licensed prediction markets too it was after i read DubemIfedigbo001's post and your post that i came to know about the two locally licensed prediction markets in Nigeria, which are 2sabihub and busha, even as a Nigerian, this is my first time of hearing 2sabihub and busha. When i am done with all my tasks today i will check out 2sabihub and busha to see how the platforms works and the odds our presidential aspirants has, if i am satisfied with 2sabihub or busha, i will predict the next president of Nigeria in one of our locally licensed prediction markets.

[PVequalNRT]

For sure it's undeniable with the claims about insider's having means of manipulating the market either as direct beneficiary or they sells inside information to outsiders or relatives with the intention not to be caught of their cheating.
So you're right and thorough investigations has to be made before government can issue their operational licenses to any proposed industry.
It takes reputable operators to preserve clean services in the market without having to employ cheats and operators that are not qualified with the requirements should not be licensed.

I think manipulation of prediction market depends on what the regulations set for the prediction markets. Most prediction market have similar markets, if you go to at least 3 prediction market, you will see Bitcoin trading on it, people predict this coin alot, you can also see politics and what the market prediction does is they follow where there is money. If one market see that there is one events that people are predicting, they will want to list the event too whether it's manipulation or not, they care about what will come to the pocket.

If regulations permit a national prediction market to list things within its jurisdiction, they will only be able to list events within the people and if they are allowed to lisy anything based on demand, they can do it and manipulation can still occur.

[Pandu Geddon]

For now in my country the prediction market is still included in the gambling category so there is no room for free to operate. Although the financial flows are large and quite lucrative, the government, the people decide to resist, the impact of addiction is greater and cannot yet be balanced with a balanced income.

In countries that prohibit gambling, the government will see prediction markets as another form of gambling. It would be strange if the government banned gambling but granted operational permits for prediction markets. People in areas that prohibit gambling will still access casinos and prediction markets from abroad. Some sites may be blocked by the government, but we as users know how to still access them.

[Botnake]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Most likely, these two options will not succeed since PAGCOR itself which is the only agency to regulate it has no license category for prediction markets, and any local prediction company that will try to operate here without the regulatory approval of PAGCOR will be considered as illegal gambling in the Philippines.

Therefore, there are low chances for any local prediction market that will be regulated here in our country. The only accessible for Filipinos right now are just Kalshi and Polymarket.

[Grace333]

The prediction market is still bew to a lot of people and some people that are finding out about it are showing interest, there's a whole lot of people that would want to use the prediction market. This isn't something that would be used in my country because a lot of people arr Interested in simple betting, this  involves trading as well which makes it a whole lot complicated, this is the reason why nothing lolw this can come up prediction in my country. The prediction market isn't really common or even known in a lot of countries and mine is one of them.

[alastantiger]

Am yet to see any such development in my country nor know if any one is taking shape yet, but one thing I know is that local platforms are playing it safe and don't want to draw so much attention to themselves because definitely the government would and must get taxes and revenue from them and it might not be easy because the local platforms would know they might just lose a lot of customers mostly in this country where insider information and corruption would bind up very well to make people a lot of funds and put a lot of these local platforms out of business if they fail to integrate predictions market into their platform

Gambling and prediction is big in my country hence it is a matter of time before some of our companies already in the gambling business will start offering this service but for now, I do not also think my country has any. There is no form of gambling that is not currently in the country so as this one is beginning to gain momentum, I think they will start offering the service. I do not think playing of taxes should be a problem for local casinos if they are making profits from their casino because with the rate of people losing, they can cover up and he up to date with their taxes. What I think is holding them back is that the prediction makers is still new and has not gotten enough hype around it yet when it does, we will begin to see them often.

[red4slash]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.
 

It seems to be a little difficult to exist in our country because in terms of regulation only it has started to be banned now even for some reason when prediction markets like Polymarket only now it is a little difficult in terms of regulation because it is considered gambling even though initially it was not a problem but when there was a bet on the president (our country) who stepped down then the status has changed now to gambling and illegal even though the site can still be opened.

So the opportunity to open a local prediction market is obviously not easy because of legality issues like this.
But for the case of your country which is still quite friendly towards gambling I think it is understandable why there is a local prediction market and for the reason that both aspects you are comparing it still becomes reasonable because the government gets both instead of one of the 2 things you are alluding to.
Taxes will always be a strong reason in this regard because with the hype of its prediction market for now and the interest in almost every country growing then the government will also not miss this to their advantage.

[BigTarget]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

I checked on google and with my friend who lives in Dubai but I am not getting any positive input on my country's stand like it is not going to have or regulate prediction market because my government still thinks that prediction market must be another format of gambling and for your information that we are not allowed to bet on sports so far. I am seeing prediction market is trending everywhere but in my understanding, that kins of betting is in practice for years as per I have seen on stake and other casinos.

I guess that I need to use only European and US version of prediction market as I can access them through VPN but I cannot enjoy it like how other people are predicting their own countries' events. Still, for making some profits and to enjoy betting, any market would be fine, I guess. 

[Iranus]

I think manipulation of prediction market depends on what the regulations set for the prediction markets. Most prediction market have similar markets, if you go to at least 3 prediction market, you will see Bitcoin trading on it, people predict this coin alot, you can also see politics and what the market prediction does is they follow where there is money.

Risk of manipulation does not depend solely on types of event the market is listing.
Guess any insider has prior access to confidential information regarding any political event. He can trade on his own or he can take position using his relative's account or some other account. Simply listing any event in market will not eliminate such risk.

Another point is liquidity.
If trading volume is low, you can cause significant price movement even with relatively small amount of capital. But doing same thing in any high volume market would typically require significantly more capital. So you cannot prove manipulation solely by looking at suspicious price movement.

[Floxynice]

I am yet to come across any version of the prediction market in my country, Nigeria. The prediction market is a fast-growing form of gambling/trading. I am convinced somehow that there should be at least  one that I do not know about. Definitely, if there are any such markets, they would not be banned, just subject to a few regulations to prevent abuse. My fellow Nigerians can give me a hint if there is any out there that I do not know about yet.

[Zlantann]

Interesting, good to see the fame of prediction market extend on local markets now.

But the biggest challenges they might face is the local regulation. Since as search, there's no local prediction market got a license on Philippines. Maybe if they push it and try to operate as legal in that country then its good.

Also well let just find out if they succeed when they officially launch their site.

Prediction market is a new form of gambling. Some countries even have laws that cover the prediction market. These countries would have to draft a bill that would be presented to the lawmakers, or existing gambling laws can be amended to cover the operations of the prediction market. There should be existing laws before licenses are given to avoid anarchy.

With the success of this form of gambling in countries where it exists, I guess it might flourish in almost all countries. Gamblers assume that it is easier to win in prediction markets since it involves different areas that are predictable.

[Smartprofit]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

 

There are no prediction markets in my country. In my opinion, there's no chance of them appearing (at least in the near future).🙋

This is because I live in an authoritarian country with very strict legislation. Theoretically, prediction markets could be considered either gambling or financial asset (derivatives) markets. However, bureaucrats from various government departments and agencies don't want to legally regulate prediction markets. I personally understand why!

First, all government officials are obsessed with matters of national security. The creation of prediction markets would inevitably lead to many official secrets being revealed. After all, it's simply impossible to imagine prediction markets without insiders and insider information!

Second, much is built on lies, while prediction platforms are oracles of truth. No one wants it to be revealed that official statistics, let's say, aren't entirely objective. 💁

[Z_MBFM]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

It is foolish for us to expect a prediction market where crypto has not been legalized in my country. In my country, crypto gambling is illegal so no company can provide such a service openly. Especially a service where people can test their luck. In my country, the legality of crypto is just being discussed, probably in a few years it will be legalized, then gradually everything will be legalized. And to be honest, I am not very interested in prediction markets. So I do not want a local prediction market yet, this is my personal opinion and on the other hand, my country is not yet ready to launch or legalize such a service.

[crwth]

It is good that some companies are trying to build their own, but what I'm worried about is the insider trading that could happen, knowing that prediction markets can be manipulated and knowing that the Philippines has a lot of corrupt people and the people in power are really abusing their control; they could take advantage of these kinds of prediction markets.

I hope there are ways to really regulate and make sure that doesn't happen.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

In Spain, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket nor any similar prediction market is legal, and they are blocked by the regulatory body. They were classified as betting firms, and as they did not hold a specific licence to offer betting services in Spain, they were banned and blocked. From what I’ve seen on other forums, there were people who used to bet on them before the ban; now I’m not sure whether they’ll use VPNs or something similar to carry on betting, or whether they’ve simply stopped doing so.

[Xackie]

I know of two Bayse markets and Signal by Busha that are Nigerian made. Both of them are fully licensed to operate legally. They sort offer the same thing Polymarket and Kalshi does. But they are own issues is that they are not yet popular in Nigeria.  Alot of people knows about the international predictions market, but our locally made own has gotten much attention.  I think Bayse market is more popular than Signal , because they are some celebrities that do advertise them .  Bayse offer local politics(elections) , sports, finance, cryptocurrency and entertainment.

[Bluedrem]

Officially, there is no such thing as a prediction market in my country. Since gambling is prohibited in my country and it is a punishable offense, many gamblers are fined and imprisoned for gambling, so there is no prediction market or casino site in public here. It is possible that a Bangladeshi citizen, being a citizen of another country, can operate many casino sites and prediction markets in the country's market where people of the country gamble all the time. As I said, gambling is prohibited in my country, it does not mean that people do not gamble. Rather, more people are involved in gambling now than when gambling is prohibited, especially when gambling is available online, the number of gamblers is now huge.