Does your country have a version of prediction market, or is one coming up?

[Hispo]

There isn't a single type of local prediction platform operating in my country, whether legally or illegally, because besides government regulations that ban all forms of gambling, the prediction market model is still very new to most people here. People here are still more interested in playing mahjong, slots, or other traditional gambling forms. As for prediction markets, I think not many people here are really into that.

Would you care to share where you are from, though?
I would have assumed prediction markets were rather a global trend, hence the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket (and also Binance, which has been including prediction markets as well for it's costumers).
Since you mentioned Mahjong, I assume you are from Asia. I thought asian people were specially interested in prediction markets, though? Because they usually like to bet on novelty games and experiences.

Anyways, if you could give us more information or context, it would be greatly appreciated.

[2Pizza410000BTC]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

Although prediction market is a very hot topic, no protection market has been opened in my country due to strict rules and regulations. There are no gambling houses in my country and there is no online gambling platform because the government of my country still has a zero tolerance policy towards gambling and drugs, but in any case, the stock market is open in my country.

[Africolo]

Before now I was more focused on prediction markets, which are popular, and did not even know my country had some locally licensed ones. I just searched because of this topic and noticed that we have 2sabihub and busha, which I only knew was into exchange, but I never knew they were into prediction too, and seervue and all of them are set and have the upcoming 2027 Nigeria presidential elections on their options.

One reason why why most people are not even aware of these local prediction market is that, the influx of the more popular foreign prediction market has made it look like there are no local prediction market in the country. Just as you have said I am even just hearing about some of these local based prediction market are actually licenced, maybe I will try use these local casinos the more, I feel like using them is like promoting your own.

Yes, I totally agree with you and if not for this topic I don't even know about the prediction market in Nigeria, it's just now that I had to do some research to know about the few local ones that we have, as rightly said the foreign prediction market has overshadow the local ones that we have. As I am I won't lie have heard about the prediction market but I don't really know how it works nor have a wider knowledge of it and that so many gamblers don't know how it works too because much attention is not given to it and they don't even use it while playing.

We all know that the Philippian government doesn't back gambling and it's been ban in their country, Nigerian government should be able to set standards and limits on how some Youths gamble in other to reduce the level of gambling because we are ranked between first 10 among the country with the most gambling activities based on statistics.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

The prediction market is such a hot topic, and some big players like Draftking is coming in to have a share of the market. How about a local version of a prediction market? Do you already have one, and how did your regulator classify it?

There are two local companies here in our country that will soon launch a local version they are still in beta; Poly Pinas and Suri.ph First Filipino Prediction Market.

I don't know if these will launch because of the strict regulations in our country, but there's money to be made for our government in taxes and revenues.

i think that every company that has the intentions of complying with regulatory laws and government policies in a country or jurisdiction should ensure they acquire the necessary licenses required to operate the service or company without any government or regulatory related issues , this way, even in a regulatory strict environment, launching a product or service should not be a problem at all.

And speaking of whether my country has a local prediction market?, the answer is NO, there is none i know of at the moment, not even one that is not launched yet. But assuming some one comes up and decided to launch a local prediction market here in my country, i am very sure he or she will launch successfully since the government here hardly pay attention to stuffs like this, the only time the government might or may become interested in taxing such platform is if it succeeds and become very popular in the whole of the country.

[Makus]

The prediction market is quite interesting and it introduces a whole unique system of betting but it's quite unfortunate that this is not accepted in my country just yet, betting sites can operate freely without any restrictions so I think that this is something that would be approved if it's introduced because all the government cares about is what they can generate revenue from.

Players or Bettors on the other hand already have something that they are already used to and that's Betting sites and casinos, the prediction market might be too complicated for a lot of people.

[SUPERSAIAN]

In my country, prediction markets are prohibited, but I believe they will begin to be legalized worldwide. Sites like Polymarket are currently inaccessible though, of course, there are ways to reach them—but I anticipate that they will eventually become legal in most countries. Alternatively, individual nations might establish their own prediction markets, operated by a few authorized institutions.

Companies similar to Polymarket or DraftKings may not be accepted in the majority of countries around the world.

[Ayers]

There isn't a single type of local prediction platform operating in my country, whether legally or illegally, because besides government regulations that ban all forms of gambling, the prediction market model is still very new to most people here. People here are still more interested in playing mahjong, slots, or other traditional gambling forms. As for prediction markets, I think not many people here are really into that.

Would you care to share where you are from, though?
I would have assumed prediction markets were rather a global trend, hence the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket (and also Binance, which has been including prediction markets as well for it's costumers).
Since you mentioned Mahjong, I assume you are from Asia. I thought asian people were specially interested in prediction markets, though? Because they usually like to bet on novelty games and experiences.

I could see, he is from Indonesian local board
it's not as if the entire Asian continent shares just one single culture!
From what I've heard scenario in Indonesia is completely different.

As far as I know, in Muslim majority country like Pakistan, Indonesia, government's stance on gambling and betting is exceptionally strict. There's practically no chance of legal or anything illegal. Beyond the complication and regulation, the core issue is that the very concept of prediction market is considered abhorrent by Muslim country. Regardless of global trend local reality at ground level is entirely different!

[Shinpako09]

I didn't know there were beta test versions of prediction markets already. If they ever decide to push through and hire celebrities and influencers to promote it, it will definitely become a hit, especially if they add local events related to politics and the showbiz industry. Some Filos are very invested in these two.

It's just that market manipulation will probably become an issue, given how they do things here, it's quite possible. There's also the problem of insider information. Linking it back to those insiders, especially in politics-related markets, isn't easy, and it takes time before the case gets resolved.

There will always be people trying to take advantage of these markets, and that's a problem they will have to deal with continuously. For crooks, it's easy money. They won't let that opportunity slip away.

[Jaycoinz]

Yeh Nigeria has this, but most of them don’t even know. Busha has launch Signal since August, Lagos Lottery license them.

But before this thread am not even aware, Polymarket is what everbody is aware of.

Local can win for 2027 election sha, this because we understand our own politics. If they can do publicity and pay winners quick people are going to use them.

We have this in Nigeria but a lot of people are not aware of it, they only use traditional sports betting sites. If we were to use this to bet on elections just like you said I think that a lot of people would be in profit, Just as you said, we understand the political systems of the country to the point where it has become predictable to us. If it becomes public then it would seem as though the system is being exploited.

[Cantsay]

And speaking of whether my country has a local prediction market?, the answer is NO, there is none i know of at the moment, not even one that is not launched yet. But assuming some one comes up and decided to launch a local prediction market here in my country, i am very sure he or she will launch successfully since the government here hardly pay attention to stuffs like this, the only time the government might or may become interested in taxing such platform is if it succeeds and become very popular in the whole of the country.

I have seen a few Nigerians mention some prediction markets here on this thread, the first was Signal by Busha, Batiwi, Bayse and some others, and this is the first time I've seen or read the names of these sites.

I don't know why, but it looks like these guys are sleeping on their marketing because the fact that no one knows about them means that their marketing team is doing a really bad job. Prediction market still has huge potential for local ones in Nigeria, and if you can seize that space for yourself before all those gambling giants start incorporating it into their site, then they would have the chance to also compete.

[Supreme Donvic]

Yeh Nigeria has this, but most of them don’t even know. Busha has launch Signal since August, Lagos Lottery license them.

But before this thread am not even aware, Polymarket is what everbody is aware of.

Local can win for 2027 election sha, this because we understand our own politics. If they can do publicity and pay winners quick people are going to use them.

If we were to use this to bet on elections just like you said I think that a lot of people would be in profit, Just as you said, we understand the political systems of the country to the point where it has become predictable to us. If it becomes public then it would seem as though the system is being exploited.

True, politics in Nigeria is understood by everyone because of the high rate of corruption, it is actually impossible or very difficult for a sitting president to run for a second term in office and then lose, there's always a 95% chance of a sitting President who is running for a second term in office to always win, the only thing that will be happening is that the odd that will be given to a sitting President to win again will be small and people in Nigeria won't mind to pick it and put there life savings because they are 95% sure that it will go as predicted.

[CryptoBuds]

This isn't something that would be used in my country because a lot of people arr Interested in simple betting, this  involves trading as well which makes it a whole lot complicated

Hmm, often Yes/No shares are traded in prediction market. And value of position also changes as market price change. So, such matter might seem bit too complicated to new user.

But not all prediction markets are trading based. On some platform you can bet directly against operator. While on others, users trade shares with one another.

From what you've said, it seems to me that biggest barrier to adoption is user experience. If any new user needs to understand order book, bid/ask spread, liquidity and contract settlement then they will likely opt for sportsbook they are already familiar with. So if prediction market can offer more simple interface along with transparent pricing and settlement rule then they will become much more accessible to average user.

[Odusko]

There isn't a single type of local prediction platform operating in my country, whether legally or illegally, because, besides government regulations that ban all forms of gambling, the prediction market model is still very new to most people here. People here are still more interested in mahjong, slots, or other traditional forms of gambling. As for prediction markets, I don't think many people here are really into them.

There may be some predictions market operating that you may not be aware of, despite you said that the government in your country have ban all form of gambling, but even at that we can still tell that not everything can be controlled or known to you, so you can nit outrightly be sure about the operation.
Like in my country, we have a lot of government regulations banning some sectors, but yet activities still go through even in semi-legal form, which makes everything to be possible as long as operational in other part of the world.

[EluguHcman]

toquote author=danherbias07 link=topic=5599150.msg67323656#msg67323656 date=1794136428]
None for now.

I don't think my country will be injecting prediction markets into their gambling application just yet because the knowledge behind it is very low. I believe they do not even have any idea what is going on, and the government will probably just let it stay that way.
Governments have very different ideas behind AI or gambling industries. I think we will have to wait before they can come up with a rule that will either prevent or allow other gambling markets to come in.
[/quote]
If your country's government has been supporting the gambling industries by issuing of licenses to them, I don't think it will be of a big deal for the jurisdiction in charge to make provisions for prediction markets if at all there is any prediction company being projected.

I understand the prediction market is not easy to gain licenses as easy as gambling industry is being licenses. Reasons being that gambling has been existing for long now and government has also have enough time to scrutinize the integrity and justify its mode of service as just a game. Unlike the prediction with real world events.

[Hazink]

Although prediction market is a very hot topic, no protection market has been opened in my country due to strict rules and regulations. There are no gambling houses in my country and there is no online gambling platform because the government of my country still has a zero tolerance policy towards gambling and drugs, but in any case, the stock market is open in my country.

Which country are you from if I may ask? I know some countries are not gambling-friendly, but I don't know them to be strict with both prediction activities, which are regarded as trading in most cases by definition, and your country might not have a local market for prediction but the international ones are and their service are operating down to almost all countries.