The "Get Rich Quick" capitulation

[d5000]

I think we may be witnessing the capitulation of the "get rich quick" folks.

A lot of users in other media, e.g. Reddit, seem to be disappointed with Bitcoin's performance.

Such posts as ...

- Bitcoin isn't the best performing asset anymore!
- If I'd invested in $RAMDOM_ASSET my ROI would be better than now!
- (Even) Gold has performed better than Bitcoin!

and so on.

Sometimes they mix this up with "crypto" - and yeah, there they are quite correct: altcoins performed really bad in the last years (above all that hyped stuff like Solana which are already down 75%+ from their ATH).

These people have bought Bitcoin only because they wanted to get rich quick. And these times are probably over, because volatility has dropped. At most you can get a x5 in few years if you're lucky (e.g. if you invested in the 2022 capitulation, when blood was on the streets, just like now, and then sold at the 2025 top).

What might this be telling us? Is this "capitulation" different from other drops where simple angry weak hands ventilated their anger on social media?

I'm still not sure. But it may be simply a stage Bitcoin has to go through before it becomes a really great, and more stable asset, leaving the "get rich quick" period behind and entering the real "digital gold" phase.

This phase can be bumpy. It can lead to new yearly or even multi-year lows, or not. But if Bitcoin is able to recover without the "get rich quick" folks (or at least with a smaller proportion of them), it will be stronger and may become finally a more trustable asset.

Wouldn't Bitcoin have a bigger potential if people didn't fear these big crashes anymore, and investors can recommend it to their parents and grandparents, not only to "dat friend"?

[bbc.reporter]

These people have bought Bitcoin only because they wanted to get rich quick.

I very much agree! Everyone should begin to accept that we are not anymore very early on bitcoin and if these people are here to get rich quick, they are looking at the wrong investment.

Also, there are again dormant wallets that have begun dumping their bitcoins. It appears that these HODLERS are not anymore believing in what they HODL heheheeh.



Two Bitcoin addresses that had been dormant since 2010 suddenly moved $6.9 million worth of BTC on Friday, bringing two early mining rewards back into circulation after more than 16 years.

Source https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/dormant-bitcoin-wallets-wake-16-193603213.html

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I think we may be witnessing the capitulation of the "get rich quick" folks.

We’ve been seeing that capitulation for some time now.

A lot of users in other media, e.g. Reddit, seem to be disappointed with Bitcoin's performance.

Such posts as ...

- Bitcoin isn't the best performing asset anymore!
- If I'd invested in $RAMDOM_ASSET my ROI would be better than now!
- (Even) Gold has performed better than Bitcoin!

and so on.

The problem is that it’s true, and we’re not talking about short periods of time, but rather more than one cycle (4–5 years).

I'm still not sure. But it may be simply a stage Bitcoin has to go through before it becomes a really great, and more stable asset, leaving the "get rich quick" period behind and entering the real "digital gold" phase.

So, it will be a boring but safe asset, basically.

This phase can be bumpy. It can lead to new yearly or even multi-year lows, or not.

Actually, we are on the verge of ending the year with a negative return for the second year running – a situation unprecedented in the history of Bitcoin – so the scenario you’re describing seems plausible.

Wouldn't Bitcoin have a bigger potential if people didn't fear these big crashes anymore, and investors can recommend it to their parents and grandparents, not only to "dat friend"?

Potential in what sense? My fear is that those parents and grandparents wouldn’t buy actual bitcoin, but rather ETFs and other financial products. 

[STT]

Its the same cycle of hype and disappointment that you cant live off a sugar high forever.   Pricing of every asset is just the label and reflection of a wider market not the total value.
  BTC especially is speculative and ironically buying on this mass disappointment is better timing then jumping onto an already fast moving train, imo that hype cycle is dangerous and the gloom here vice versa is less worse then it appears.

I don't just mean this in general terms or timing the cycle, the numbers and volume in this area could easily support a recovery in BTC.  I wont detail right here but timing can be so ironic.
  People who are gloomy in a herd effect of washed out sentiment and failed optimism, they are possibly going to sell at the worst time just before that recovery.   A recovery happening just after the capitulation is not for certain but selling after the fall is why the market swings about so harshly, reflecting a very human phenomena.

[atookz]

Also, there are again dormant wallets that have begun dumping their bitcoins.

Small thing on wallets which are apparently dormant, what I’ve read those 2010 coins (100 BTC / ~$6.9M) were simply moved to new wallets, not dumped/sold to an exchange; I'd wait to be sure before saying the hodlers lost faith in Bitcoin.

Actually, we are on the verge of ending the year with a negative return for the second year running – a situation unprecedented in the history of Bitcoin

True so far. BTC was down 6% in 2025 and ~16% in 2026 as of Nov 10, so it would be the first back to back red years unless it gets back above the ~$87.5k opening price, and that's not final yet. What hurts the "digital gold" story is gold being up ~65% in 2025 while BTC was down 6%. IMO it's still a milder bear than the previous ones (about -21% over two years vs -74% in 2018 and -64% in 2022, single years).

[Derekfunds]

I think we may be witnessing the capitulation of the "get rich quick" folks.

A lot of users in other media, e.g. Reddit, seem to be disappointed with Bitcoin's performance.

Such posts as ...

- Bitcoin isn't the best performing asset anymore!
- If I'd invested in $RAMDOM_ASSET my ROI would be better than now!
- (Even) Gold has performed better than Bitcoin!

This alone shows that these fellas aren't using what they can afford to lose and it also shows they are not actually investing in Bitcoin to hold for some years and it is very obvious that anyone who is venturing into Bitcoin to hold for a short period of time is prone to experience this kind of behavior in the market which will make these folks to panick or even sell at loss. Currently, no asset is better than Bitcoin and this post from social media comes from ragging folks who has mistaken Bitcoin to short term investment or trading . Even though an investor will be mad at the current market behavior, they won't come on social media to say trash because they know Bitcoin will do well in the long term and that was why they chosed long term to save themselves these kind of stress.

[aoluain]

...and there was me thinking all the weak hands had already capitulated and fled for their
lives but obviously not. It seems to a perpetual mindset - If the Bitcoin market isnt consistently
rising or in Bull mode its dying. This has always been the mindset of those who *probably*
dont understand the Bitcoin market, the 4 year cycle or the halving.

What might this be telling us? Is this "capitulation" different from other drops where simple angry weak hands ventilated their anger on social media?

I'm still not sure. But it may be simply a stage Bitcoin has to go through before it becomes a really great, and more stable asset, leaving the "get rich quick" period behind and entering the real "digital gold" phase.

IDK, I dont follow any 'crypto' channels on social media myself so they can vent all they want
it wont change anything, maybe they are hoping to influence others into their way of thinking?

I also think because of the markets nature this mindset will continue.

[NeuroticFish]

I think we may be witnessing the capitulation of the "get rich quick" folks.

I think that's only one wave of these guys that "went down". I would not be surprised an even bigger wave will rise as soon as a new proper leg up happens.
Somehow there are always plenty of people managing to buy high and sell low in their attempt to get rich quick. Sadly they can switch too easily afterwards into "bitcoin is scam" plebs, so I'm not happy when this happens.
Even more, the current dump took me too by surprise. Luckily I am not a trader and I only wanted to sell some sats before the holidays.

[stompix]

These people have bought Bitcoin only because they wanted to get rich quick.

As opposed to the others who wanted to get rich on medium speed to low..
Common, let's not try to hide it, it's a money game!
Bitcoin would not be used even at 1% of what is now if it would still be at $1k and most of us would not be here to comment on that either.

The reality is that it's not a good time for neither crypto nor Bitcoin, it was a revolutionary thing but well, there are other revolutionary things on the market now, and it's no longer the point of interest. People look at returns and once you cut the 2010-2017 period from the picture, it's not that good anymore.

What is actually funny for me is that in every crash there are two sides:
- the one screaming Bitcoin is dead
- the veterans coming out and talking about how 1BTC=1BTC, forgetting that for 4 years they were only counting profits in $
I always said, the number of "reassurance" topics is proportional to the surface of the stain on their pants.
 

[Asiska02]

Wouldn't Bitcoin have a bigger potential if people didn't fear these big crashes anymore, and investors can recommend it to their parents and grandparents, not only to "dat friend"?

Until the initial mindset that lead to them investing into the currency is changed, they will always fear for the potential drop of the currency because that’s not what their minds prepared for when coming into the market.

How can they be able to accept the fact that crashes is part of the market and that this is not a get rich quick scheme when they’re just after the money and not the process through which this profit grows overtime.

While recommending bitcoin investment to others like parents and grandparents, it should not sound so juicy like it is a perfect investment without setbacks from volatile market. The get rich quick scheme mindset should be changed and that will allow for changes in the market looks just natural to these investors.

[rbynxx]

What might this be telling us? Is this "capitulation" different from other drops where simple angry weak hands ventilated their anger on social media?

I'm still not sure. But it may be simply a stage Bitcoin has to go through before it becomes a really great, and more stable asset, leaving the "get rich quick" period behind and entering the real "digital gold" phase.

This phase can be bumpy. It can lead to new yearly or even multi-year lows, or not. But if Bitcoin is able to recover without the "get rich quick" folks (or at least with a smaller proportion of them), it will be stronger and may become finally a more trustable asset.

Wouldn't Bitcoin have a bigger potential if people didn't fear these big crashes anymore, and investors can recommend it to their parents and grandparents, not only to "dat friend"?

So difficult to tell but what if this "capitulation" keeps getting capitulated then? Well, still got room to go that way, but I'm not trying to be bearish here though, it's like I just getting goosebumps. The thing with the past rallies is that people have this notion that it will be "the best" performing asset if you hold long term, it will go up because of the 4-year cycle, or Q4 is the best quarter, only for them to experience this bumpy ride. I think most of them will get out only for them to buy it back higher.

I think for that to happen, then that $50k shouldn't hold and goes lower, that's the only way that these get rich quick folks or should I say most of the retail investors will fade. That's the only way, crash it, capitulation will happen.

[mindrust]

It would be dumb to expect bitcoin to grow forever exponentially anyway. Currently btc market cap is 1.3 Trillion USD. Bitcoin already has become a mega cap asset. It might go to 10 Trillion maybe but from now on btc will probably follow the Inflation rate.

It is because unless people sell other mega cap stocks and route their investments to btc, there simply isn't enough available USD in the markets to drive btc upwards. Btc is competing against Us treasuries which pay around 5% and AI stocks which attract shit loads of money. Unless these two collapse, It is hard to expect bitcoin to go parabolic again any time soon.

[d5000]

Also, there are again dormant wallets that have begun dumping their bitcoins. It appears that these HODLERS are not anymore believing in what they HODL heheheeh.

Unfortunately the note doesn't specify if it was a P2PK coin. Every P2PK wallet which is moved is better for Bitcoin, because there are thus less vulnerable coins for quantum.

The problem is that it’s true, and we’re not talking about short periods of time, but rather more than one cycle (4–5 years).

It is not a problem for Bitcoin if the first, more bumpy and "exciting", adoption phase is over, only for the "Get Rich Quick" folks.

And most of the time these users are also cherrypicking to justify their bad decisions. They're comparing the last gold bubble with the last Bitcoin bear market, which is comparing two quite short timeframes, or do a comparison with the 2021 top and the 2026 bearish bottom.

Well, "buy high, sell now" may have still worked in 2011. It doesn't work anymore, and that's true for most more or less mature assets.

So, it will be a boring but safe asset, basically.

Still less boring than ETFs, more like gold. The SMA-200 weekly (long term price trend) is still more than 20% up each year.

Eventually it will be as boring as ETFs though, but in this case, I can imagine it to work more contrarian to the economy as there are only indirect connections to stock markets. Not like now when each hickup on the stock market is followed or even amplified by traders who have no idea about fundamentals, but follow herd behavior.

This kind of herd behavior without fundamental grounding will wane away once Bitcoin becomes safer and its fundamentals are better understood.

Actually, we are on the verge of ending the year with a negative return for the second year running – a situation unprecedented in the history of Bitcoin – so the scenario you’re describing seems plausible.

This is again cherrypicking. A calendar year doesn't mean nothing (less so in an asset that trades 24/7 and has no quarterly or yearly SEC filings) , and in this case it is even caused by a bullish event, the late 2024 pump. The reason 2025 was "bearish" is because the last stage of the bull market had moved to an earlier calendar year.

And the reasons were obvious: the ETFs euphoria moved the whole bull market schedule to an earlier date, and the expectation of Trump's victory in November 2024 led to the last big bullish pump to 100,000$+.

Potential in what sense? My fear is that those parents and grandparents wouldn’t buy actual bitcoin, but rather ETFs and other financial products.  

It is also healthy that people keep buying stocks and ETFs to keep Capitalism running. But for some Bitcoin will be more attractive, due to the potential of a contrarian evolution (see above). There are many studies that have signalled that even if only a few % of the middle class's saving capital is put into BTC then its price would be much higher than now.

I'm not expecting much more than that. I expect also the younger cohorts of "parents and grandparents" (those born, let's say from 1965-1970 onwards) already being more open to BTC because they knew it already in their "active" life, not only when they were already retired.

The reality is that it's not a good time for neither crypto nor Bitcoin, it was a revolutionary thing but well, there are other revolutionary things on the market now, and it's no longer the point of interest. People look at returns and once you cut the 2010-2017 period from the picture, it's not that good anymore.

Yes, Bitcoin isn't revolutionary anymore. And this is exactly my point - the "get rich quick" folks are looking into other options. Where there will also be bubbles. And this is a process that's happening a lot of time already. 2015 was less steep than 2021, 2021 was less steep than 2017, and even 2017 was less steep than 2013.

In early times (2013) it was said that the high volatility in the early bumpy bull markets was necessary to attract attention. But eventually, as also @mindrust wrote, any asset has to mature. There is no infinite growth. And if Bitcoin wants to stay successfull, it needs to change the focus from the "get rich quick" to the "save money from inflation" crowd. (It's highly likely that for the "get rich on medium speed" as you call them, there will be some opportunities still )