open your eyes

[ErisDiscordia]

Deeply sorry for your personal bitterness and frustration.

This. Your posts are becoming more and more cringe worthy, TERA. You might be right, but you don't need to be an asshole about it. If you really care about convincing others of "the truth", your recent style of presentation is doing your goal a disservice.

on a related note: wouldn't it be kind of neat, if the bottom was in today? 10th of April...you know, the day we had the 266$ peak during the last cycle? 

[ampere9765]

...
You mentioned "smart money" earlier.

Yeah smart money doesn't bottom fish.

Buy low, sell high
Clearly you must be mistaken.


Edit:
Why bother....
I deleted a link the would make you a better trader.
Perhaps someone else will be willing to teach you. 

Clearly



Thanks but I don't need any of your grand wisdom, you've made your point

What a rigorous analysis.
 

All I did was call you out on a weak argument

What are you trying to say here

[Asrael999]

It's almost like Freddie Mercury predicted the BTC market in the 70's.

Bohemian Rhapsody

Is this the real life?
 Is this just fantasy?
 Caught in a landslide,
 No escape from reality.

 Open your eyes,
 Look up to the skies and see,
 I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy,
 Because I'm easy come, easy go,
 Little high, little low,
 Anyway the wind blows doesn't really matter to me, to me.

[Teppino]

Looks to me that TA works best in regulated markets, with fair clear rules.
I feel Bitcoin have a lot of underground movements, blockchain analysis might be best suited. For what i know it could be convenient for big capitals to keep exchanges prices low and buy straight from miners. China have the infrastructure/skill to build their own high performance miners as well, to me this only means that exchanges are only a (small) attempt to trade something new in a old way.
Also, from past experiences, unless i read some clear, straight and official statement i tend to consider everything as price manipulation attemps (bullish therefore).
That said i highly respect the work of skilled analysts.

[magicmexican]

It's more like... time to gtfo

Agree, now can you please follow your own advice?

[Oldminer]

when everyone says sell, thats when I buy 

[ampere9765]

It's more like... time to gtfo

Agree, now can you please follow your own advice?

Bull circle jerk only?

[e4xit]

How does the chart posted in OP guarantee that we are going lower again?

[magicmexican]

I cannot believe I am still hearing people vigorously advocating taking a long position right now and that this is the bottom because their perception of 'previous cycles'.

.....

1W MACD has crossed back up. Weekly emas have only ever crossed down once in the history of bitcoin, in 2011. All you have to do is open your eyes and see.

Isnt that ironic

[TERA]

At this point I don't care about catching the bottom. I cared whether I had bought the bottom when I bought 700, and then 600, and then 500. But at 400 and below it doesn't matter to me.  At this point I only care that my eventual rebuy price (if i rebuy) is lower than the price now, and that is most likely to be true. It's too risky to try to bottom fish or to hold fiat on exchanges for more months. Getting a price significantly above bottom is fine if it eliminates risk factors and allows the funds to be used for something else productive in the meantime. There may be an entire 6 month rally to recover from 200 to 350 before my 1W signal is given. But by that time, I may have increased my funds by a factor of 10 in forex/stock trading and business ventures.

[oda.krell]

I'm not totally sure what to make of your post tera. On the one hand I understand your frustration with the irrational bullishness of this forum (I sometimes think it should be renamed to "Cheerleading" instead of "Speculation"), but on the other hand your post sounds a bit passive aggressive. I like your analysis, so I just hope you don't turn into another rambling doom&gloom type poster.


About your technical argument itself:

I made a post in the wall thread yesterday, where I went on about how relevant (or not) a weekly, or in my example: 3 day, EMA crossover is. Link here. To recap:

I would be careful drawing too much conclusions from that crossover alone. You correctly pointed out yourself that, after just a few 9 month rally cycles, people here feel "entitled" to another big rally now, which is silly of course. But that works the other way around as well: Just because we /once/ had a long decline after a similar crossover in 2011 doesn't mean we inevitably will see another one now.

Also, I don't know the exact parameters you used for the EMAs, but did you check how profitable a "pure" strategy based on those weekly EMAs would have been in 2011? Because the one I looked at (3d EMA40+20) was basically profit neutral: you would have sold about half way into the 2011 bear market, and bought back pretty deep into the recovery. So I would be careful about advising to "sell now, buy back when they CO again" -- those super-slow momentum indicators are incredibly lagging, so if someone in here is really convinced of the /long-term/ success of Bitcoin, he might rationally resist selling too deep into a downtrend, because he might not be quick enough to see the reversal and buy back in.

Okay.... But all of that said, I agree with the gist of your argument: a large number of technical indicators (including momentum ones like EMAs) tell us that we're still deep into the downtrend, and there's little signs of reversal. So all those bulls cheering at any upwards move of 5$, calling it a reversal, sure can stuff it.

[Colonel Panic]

But by that time, I may have increased my funds by a factor of 10 in forex/stock trading and business ventures.

 

You've had a good year or two and now you think you're a master. Hubris.

[knightcoin]

I take my decisions based on my view about what the technology can offer in the future and what kind of products can be developed on top of it...

1 - I don't listen to FUD,
2 - Sometimes I listen to technical analysis (descriptive statistics, inductive statistics ) but knowing its limitations.
3 - I prefer see bitcoin as a new technology breakthrough.  

[porcupine87]

...

But But BUTTTT.

History = causation! <- idiots say that a lot.

In fact, History != causation.

Good to see someone with some sense.

Pssst. When I drive with my car I look in the driving mirror to predict the next curve.

[porcupine87]

I cannot believe I am still hearing people vigorously advocating taking a long position right now and that this is the bottom because their perception of 'previous cycles'.

.....

1W MACD has crossed back up. Weekly emas have only ever crossed down once in the history of bitcoin, in 2011. All you have to do is open your eyes and see.

Isnt that ironic

Haha, good one. I didn't see him refuting himself in the same post. Hm, for the record: I prefer the 2 weeks EMA and this one is still above.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I have to say that TERA is quite brave for making these posts.
To most of the people here, it's totally normal if someone creates a topic that talks about bitcoin hitting 10 000$ soon. But if someone creates a topic that the bitcoin price will fall, then there will be a whine storm about why is he doing it, and how bitter and WRONG he is.

Anyway, I understand the frustration because I know the feeling. I already saw this in December, that the markets in China are running on borrowed time and just waiting till bureaucracy catches up to them. I sold in December, after the first statement from PBoC, that they don't want to see any business activity in China involving bitcoin. It got clear then, that it's just a matter of time when this stance is put on paper and executed. It was common sense.
I was called all kinds of things in January, when I was asking for people not to fuel these dumb pumps, that only had the support of denial, desperation and foolish hopes. It's funny to see how everything is unfolding, but there are still people who desperately try to call for new "trend reversals" and curse at people who won't go along with this stupidity.
Bitcoin is a nice piece of technology, but the majority of people surrounding it are fools, who are both ignorant and arrogant at the same time. I think that the overly steep deflation rate is to blame here, that attracts these get-rich-quick people, who truly think that if you believe in something really-really hard, then it will come true. When they aren't attending self-help motivational classes, called "5 easy steps on how to be a millionaire!", then they're attending this forum and trying to convince people that the price will rise to unprecedented heights.

[NationOwnedCCNow]

TERA/the sheep who believes this pessimistic stupid bs:


If I Place a buy order and make the price go up for 1 second. Just 1 second. And make a 1-second chart showing that the price is going up. Are you as easily convinced, as With this post, that the price is going up?


We've been here before. Charts been looking like this... what, 5 times? Just go back to the last/middle pages of this Specualation Forum and read the People swearing it will never go over 30. Never go over 100. NEVER 200. And definately 200 is the Maximum. Well it will never ever go over 1000.

That's the history of Bitcoin. Goes along With any FULL graph showing bitcoin in its FULL timespan.



Logic patterns are not 100% correct? Ofcourse not. I personally do however believe Logic to be a more accurate way of predicting something than just an emotional reaction i get from watching a pessimisticly manipulated graph(Manipulated because IT DOESN'T SHOW THE FULL TIMESPAN OF BTC).

[templar77]

"I cannot believe I am still hearing people vigorously advocating taking a long position right now and that this is the bottom because their perception of 'previous cycles'."

You're using charts dude. Charts only are useful to understand past data It's been proven thoudsands of times that charts can't been seriously taken into account to predict the future of markets. 

[porcupine87]

"I cannot believe I am still hearing people vigorously advocating taking a long position right now and that this is the bottom because their perception of 'previous cycles'."

You're using charts dude. Charts only are useful to understand past data It's been proven thoudsands of times that charts can't been seriously taken into account to predict the future of markets. 

+1
TA is only good if other traders use it, too. So it gets somehow a self-fulfilling prophecy. Most of the people don't care. They sell and buy based on bad or good news. The price has deacreased to the current level because of bad news out of China(and other news). That the price just touched 400$ again (support level) is because buyer placed a big support wall at 400$. Why? They can't predict the future. Maybe they used TA (self-fulfilling prophecy).

I know that there are many people waiting with millions in their hands to invest in Bitcoin. The question is only how long they will wait. Because of the intrinsic value of the Bitcoin network I see a longterm benefit for users so I don't worry. But sure, I am not happy about the recent price drops. Just because I could have made a lot of money if I would have sold and bought back now.

[Dalmar]

At this point I don't care about catching the bottom. I cared whether I had bought the bottom when I bought 700, and then 600, and then 500. But at 400 and below it doesn't matter to me.  At this point I only care that my eventual rebuy price (if i rebuy) is lower than the price now, and that is most likely to be true. It's too risky to try to bottom fish or to hold fiat on exchanges for more months. Getting a price significantly above bottom is fine if it eliminates risk factors and allows the funds to be used for something else productive in the meantime. There may be an entire 6 month rally to recover from 200 to 350 before my 1W signal is given. But by that time, I may have increased my funds by a factor of 10 in forex/stock trading and business ventures.

Indeed, I also don't care anymore where the bottom is. Shorting bitcoin the past couple of weeks has given me good profits to be content enough not to easily fall for bull traps. I'll just let others decide where the bottom is.