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Author Topic: Bitcoin is no Tulip  (Read 2962 times)
evoorhees
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January 06, 2012, 12:18:30 AM
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I think the time has come, where it is reasonable to suggest that Bitcoin was not the "purely speculative bubble asset" that many thought it was. There are many examples of ridiculous items which enter massive bubbles, pop, and then fall toward zero, never to recover. Tulip bulbs in the 17th century, or Beanie Babies in the 90's, are two popular examples.

As Bitcoin prices rose wildly and then popped last summer, a non-imaginative person could understandably perceive it as nothing but Tulip Mania. A fair argument, if you didn't understand Bitcoin, I suppose. Bitcoin was a "flash in the pan," a quick, scammy, interesting phenomenon that went away after the early adopters cashed out.

But now, given a full picture of Bitcoin's history, its rise last summer, crash, and rise again this winter, I think comparing Bitcoins to Tulips is naive and unjustified.

Bitcoin is not going anywhere, it seems - the core protocol has survived every attack and misfortune, and now the market value has also survived every attack and misfortune. The market knows these things are not worth zero, which is what many detractors have prescribed.

There will be more bubbles, I am positive. How does a global market price a revolutionary technology such as this? It will take time to figure out. Soon, we will again hear condemnations that Bitcoin will fail because it's too volatile or because it's "deflationary." We'll hear about the greedy early adopters getting rich (though I can't think of anyone more deserving of wealth). Fine, people can continue to argue those things even thought they're fallacious.

But, I think only a fool will now say that Bitcoin was just Tulip Mania, that it's price is destined to deflate to zero. Bitcoin might fail, but the Tulip Phenomenon will not be the cause.

Bitcoin: 1
Detractors: 0

Let's see what we can do in 2012. What an exciting thing to be working on =)
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barbarousrelic
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January 06, 2012, 12:40:03 AM
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Quote
the core protocol has survived every attack and misfortune

What attacks has Bitcoin itself been subject to? (Not counting attacks against MtGox et al)

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
evoorhees
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January 06, 2012, 12:48:24 AM
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the core protocol has survived every attack and misfortune

What attacks has Bitcoin itself been subject to? (Not counting attacks against MtGox et al)

I would assume every have-competent hacker on the planet has tried to steal coins or screw with the protocol in some way. There hasn't even been an "outage" of the system, let alone a serious problem. It's almost impossible to imagine that software could be so resilient, which is why I like the theory that Satoshi was actually an artificial intelligence network which created Bitcoin either as a gift to mankind or as a trick for future global domination.  Cheesy
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January 06, 2012, 12:56:11 AM
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Bitcoin: 1
Detractors: 0

Let's see what we can do in 2012. What an exciting thing to be working on =)

We shall see how Team Bitcoin does in their first contest of 2012, where they play the Mayans at home!  Grin

Bitcoin is backed by the full faith and credit of YouTube comments.
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January 06, 2012, 01:27:30 AM
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Yes, I think it is fair to say we've bounced off the $2 bottom now and may be heading for the next bubble. Next time I hear someone trotting out the Ponzi scheme line, I'll reply, "Ponzi schemes don't bounce."


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January 06, 2012, 01:55:33 AM
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YEAH F*%#% ALL THE TROLLS WHO DON'T GET BTC! WE ARE GOING TO $100 BABY!  Kiss

LEASE THIS SIGNATURE OUT WEEKLY/MONTHLY.

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January 06, 2012, 02:16:13 AM
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But when can I buy a tulip with my bitcoins from the local flower shop? That's what I'm looking forward to, hopefully in 2012.

Losing hundreds of Bitcoins with the best scammers in the business - BFL, Avalon, KNC, HashFast.
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January 06, 2012, 02:21:01 AM
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YEAH F*%#% ALL THE TROLLS WHO DON'T GET BTC! WE ARE GOING TO $100 BABY!  Kiss

go get 'em Flip.  you say everything i want to say but you leave out a zero.
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January 06, 2012, 02:32:26 AM
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But when can I buy a tulip with my bitcoins from the local flower shop? That's what I'm looking forward to, hopefully in 2012.
You just gave me an idea, how about you make a Bitcoin flower site! Grin

Here's an example
http://www.proflowers.com/landingSearch.aspx?pageid=Search&REF=FGVSRCHgoogkwd_flowers_e&NoExitPopup=Y&MATCHTYPE=search&keyword=flowers&ADTEXT=7142758644&NETWORK=google&city=Anywhere%20in%20the%20USA

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January 06, 2012, 02:46:57 AM
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But when can I buy a tulip with my bitcoins from the local flower shop? That's what I'm looking forward to, hopefully in 2012.
You just gave me an idea, how about you make a Bitcoin flower site! Grin

Here's an example
http://www.proflowers.com/landingSearch.aspx?pageid=Search&REF=FGVSRCHgoogkwd_flowers_e&NoExitPopup=Y&MATCHTYPE=search&keyword=flowers&ADTEXT=7142758644&NETWORK=google&city=Anywhere%20in%20the%20USA

I would if I knew how.  How about I open a gas station, a grocery store, and maybe a car lot also since I can't spend my coins at any of those either. Sad that more people care about speculating with Bitcoin than actually growing the economy.  Hopefully this year we can start to reverse that.

Losing hundreds of Bitcoins with the best scammers in the business - BFL, Avalon, KNC, HashFast.
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January 06, 2012, 03:04:56 AM
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Yes, I think it is fair to say we've bounced off the $2 bottom now and may be heading for the next bubble. Next time I hear someone trotting out the Ponzi scheme line, I'll reply, "Ponzi schemes don't bounce."
Haha!  +1000  …I must say though, it's funny to now see so many people that were previously proclaiming that price doesn't matter now getting so excited about the price.  Wink

I think the significance of this rally is not so much the higher price as it is that we've now seen bitcoin recover from a pretty severe bursting of a bubble.  People that may have had serious concerns that the decline wouldn't stop until it hit zero may now feel a little more confident about the long term (even if they think this may be another bubble forming).

(gasteve on IRC) Does your website accept cash? https://bitpay.com
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January 06, 2012, 03:19:29 AM
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Yes, I think it is fair to say we've bounced off the $2 bottom now and may be heading for the next bubble. Next time I hear someone trotting out the Ponzi scheme line, I'll reply, "Ponzi schemes don't bounce."
Haha!  +1000  …I must say though, it's funny to now see so many people that were previously proclaiming that price doesn't matter now getting so excited about the price.  Wink

I think the significance of this rally is not so much the higher price as it is that we've now seen bitcoin recover from a pretty severe bursting of a bubble.  People that may have had serious concerns that the decline wouldn't stop until it hit zero may now feel a little more confident about the long term (even if they think this may be another bubble forming).
There's a difference though. The price really doesn't matter for network. Bitcoin works at any price. However, many people are getting excited since they are getting richer. So I think you have to separate personal excitement from Bitcoin excitement.
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January 06, 2012, 03:42:20 AM
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Honestly people, I'd be willing to bet someone found something useful for bitcoin that might NOT be currency related..

Such as DRM or Voting...  it most likely is something that it's being adopted for that has nothing to do with what it was initially made for.



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January 06, 2012, 11:22:06 AM
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Soon, we will again hear condemnations that Bitcoin will fail because it's too volatile or because it's "deflationary."

Volatility won't make Bitcoin fail, but it's a major pain for every merchant trying to offer Bitcoin payment. The only way out is to get the ratio of speculation/(regular use) down. This means the number of users has to go up. Complaining about speculators is not going to achieve this. Using Bitcoin wherever possible will get us there.


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Piper67
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January 06, 2012, 01:09:05 PM
 #15

Soon, we will again hear condemnations that Bitcoin will fail because it's too volatile or because it's "deflationary."

Volatility won't make Bitcoin fail, but it's a major pain for every merchant trying to offer Bitcoin payment. The only way out is to get the ratio of speculation/(regular use) down. This means the number of users has to go up. Complaining about speculators is not going to achieve this. Using Bitcoin wherever possible will get us there.


Volatility will only be an issue until someone forks the chain and comes up with USDcoin, a new cryptocurrency based on Bitcoin, that maintains constant parity with the BTC/USD exchange rate :-)

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January 06, 2012, 01:49:13 PM
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Volatility will only be an issue until someone forks the chain and comes up with USDcoin, a new cryptocurrency based on Bitcoin, that maintains constant parity with the BTC/USD exchange rate :-)

Right, everyone will jump on such InflationCoins. To quote evoorhees:

... or because it's "deflationary." We'll hear about the greedy early adopters getting rich ....


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Piper67
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January 06, 2012, 01:59:48 PM
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Volatility will only be an issue until someone forks the chain and comes up with USDcoin, a new cryptocurrency based on Bitcoin, that maintains constant parity with the BTC/USD exchange rate :-)

Right, everyone will jump on such InflationCoins. To quote evoorhees:

... or because it's "deflationary." We'll hear about the greedy early adopters getting rich ....

Actually, a USDcoin blockchain would save the US a ton of money in minting costs, no? It could still be controlled by the Federal Reserve, could still be inflationary and so on, just based on Bitcoin... genius, I'm telling you!

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January 06, 2012, 02:03:07 PM
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genius, I'm telling you!

That precludes adoption by any government.


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hazek
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January 06, 2012, 04:27:29 PM
 #19

The sole reason I strongly believe in Bitcoin's success and viability is it's mechanics regarding the issuance and limited supply. I would not support any similar currency that doesn't include a similar rule so USDcoin or any other fiat currency can kiss my ass.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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January 06, 2012, 04:57:26 PM
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piper67
 I heard a rumor on FX that something similar was in progress its about 18 month away and designed to get the US off a $14 trillion hook. current us dollars will be effectively worthless worldwide (sorry China, Japan et,al) but the new us dollar I saw an actual print of one the fed is working on will need to be pegged to something a bit more stable than debt upon debt and BTC is from my point of view a good candidate.    reg          128TrjaSuKp7uhqCgTHmFFX1wwR76eTX3P                                                                               
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