So.. what the hell happened today?

[dropt]

Colleagues. If you want to be successful with bitcoin - at any level, I suggest you stop trying to think like a short term trader and start thinking like a VC investor. Real traders are making tons of cash on the bitcoin markets. They don't care if it is being "manipulated" (like the whiners in this thread complain) - every market is manipulated. Successful trading is a high-level skill that takes years to master, and a good trader can make money in any market with enough volatility and transparency (bitcoin has plenty of both). However, unless you are studying trading, have a proven system and have been very successful consistently in other markets, you will not be successful trading bitcoin.

People like MattheCat (he's just one of the loudest and most confused examples) who think they understand what is going on short-term and believe themselves smarter than the market, almost always lose - in any market. Do not follow this intelligent insanity. The market does not suffer fools and hubris gladly. From what I can tell from Mat's posts, he is losing consistently (despite his recent claims) and is very bitter. The market is teaching him lessons daily that he does not want to hear. This is the fate of all who do not trade a system that is proven over time and who do not respect the market.

The VC approach is much easier, and for most of us the better path. It is based on a simple ratio. Potential loss of 100% of your investment or potential gain of 120X your investment. Easy, even for those with no investing experience. Pick your risk capital amount, and let it ride. Or even pull some profits off the table and let the rest ride. Enjoy the journey, be part of a grand experiment and maybe end up richer. VCs don't try to figure out the daily fluctuations in moods and opinions of the masses - they certainly don't worry about evil "manipulators" stealing from them. They enjoy the adventure and the volatility is just entertaining noise to them. They only care about the long-term value potential. And they of course have other eggs in the basket.

None of us know what will happen with bitcoin tomorrow or next year or the year after, but something big is happening and it could be amazing. Has been so far. You would not be on this forum if you did not see this simple fact.  Most of us 3 years ago thought we had maybe a 20% chance to get where we are now. What do you think our chances are going forward? Don't let your arrogance and intelligence make this more complicated than it is.

Good hunting.

+1  Well said bitrider.  Well said.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

\ Because, remember, there hasn't been any news that would attract new fiat to enter the market. And without new fiat entering, the price won't be able to sustain itself for long.

Get out of this subreddit and start following the news channels.  There is a lot of positive progress going on and has been for some time. You're just caught up in the China noise.

I don't really care about the "positive news" that are about someone feeling extremely positive about BTC or some new ATMs opening or some merchant adopting BTC. When the price is considered here, then these news are meaningless.
I want to see news like new strong laws to support bitcoins financial usage in contries with strong economies, or new markets opening with proper volume in new untouched geographical locations <-- these news would mean something to the price and I would be happy buying back if I saw any of them.

[dropt]

I don't really care about the "positive news" that are about someone feeling extremely positive about BTC or some new ATMs opening or some merchant adopting BTC. When the price is considered here, then these news are meaningless.
I want to see news like new strong laws to support bitcoins financial usage in contries with strong economies, or new markets opening with proper volume in new untouched geographical locations <-- these news would mean something to the price and I would be happy buying back if I saw any of them.

Then you're not paying attention, or you're not an alt-account and are actually a total bitcoin noob.  I'm going to default to the former.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I don't really care about the "positive news" that are about someone feeling extremely positive about BTC or some new ATMs opening or some merchant adopting BTC. When the price is considered here, then these news are meaningless.
I want to see news like new strong laws to support bitcoins financial usage in contries with strong economies, or new markets opening with proper volume in new untouched geographical locations <-- these news would mean something to the price and I would be happy buying back if I saw any of them.

Then you're not paying attention, or you're not an alt-account and are actually a total bitcoin noob.  I'm going to default to the former.

Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price 

[jparsley]

Maybe Price breakout, back to 700

[dropt]

Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price 

How are you ever going to learn to find them on your own if people just conveniently hand them over?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price  

How are you ever going to learn to find them on your own if people just conveniently hand them over?

A typical mindless religious zealot Not actually debating the arguments or answering the questions, but instead desperately trying to insult the opponent

I have been following the news, and like I said, there are no news that would have an strong enough positive effect on the price.
And we confirm this by... *drums.....* ...by looking at the past price history and not seeing any sustainable positive effects on the price.  


You guys are like characters from an absurd comedy!

[MatTheCat]

Colleagues. If you want to be successful with bitcoin - at any level, I suggest you stop trying to think like a short term trader and start thinking like a VC investor. Real traders are making tons of cash on the bitcoin markets. They don't care if it is being "manipulated" (like the whiners in this thread complain) - every market is manipulated. Successful trading is a high-level skill that takes years to master, and a good trader can make money in any market with enough volatility and transparency (bitcoin has plenty of both). However, unless you are studying trading, have a proven system and have been very successful consistently in other markets, you will not be successful trading bitcoin.

People like MattheCat (he's just one of the loudest and most confused examples) who think they understand what is going on short-term and believe themselves smarter than the market, almost always lose - in any market. Do not follow this intelligent insanity. The market does not suffer fools and hubris gladly. From what I can tell from Mat's posts, he is losing consistently (despite his recent claims) and is very bitter. The market is teaching him lessons daily that he does not want to hear. This is the fate of all who do not trade a system that is proven over time and who do not respect the market.

The VC approach is much easier, and for most of us the better path. It is based on a simple ratio. Potential loss of 100% of your investment or potential gain of 120X your investment. Easy, even for those with no investing experience. Pick your risk capital amount, and let it ride. Or even pull some profits off the table and let the rest ride. Enjoy the journey, be part of a grand experiment and maybe end up richer. VCs don't try to figure out the daily fluctuations in moods and opinions of the masses - they certainly don't worry about evil "manipulators" stealing from them. They enjoy the adventure and the volatility is just entertaining noise to them. They only care about the long-term value potential. And they of course have other eggs in the basket.

None of us know what will happen with bitcoin tomorrow or next year or the year after, but something big is happening and it could be amazing. Has been so far. You would not be on this forum if you did not see this simple fact.  Most of us 3 years ago thought we had maybe a 20% chance to get where we are now. What do you think our chances are going forward? Don't let your arrogance and intelligence make this more complicated than it is.

Good hunting.

+1  Well said bitrider.  Well said.

"Oh yes..very well said indeed bitrider...put that MatTheCat noob right in his place. Well done, another caviar souffle?"

Last time I remember this much euphoria around here, it was early March and Bitcoin was hitting $710.

I am a fucking shite trader although having said that, over all I have still made money but I admit most money I made was in the later part of bull run. A market phase that any fkn halfwit can trade and win. Since Bitcoin has went into reversal, despite pretty accurately forecasting general trends, my absolutely shite trading skills has seen profits minimised with lots of stupid losses in between, and then this monumental loss today has certainly put me into net loss territory for the Jan 2014 - April 2014 period. I broke the adage I keep trying to imbue into myself but never seem to be able to stick to. NEVER TAKE A TRADE IN THE MIDDLE OF NO-MANS LAND! Right now, we are not in no-mans land. We are right on the verge of the long term downtrend with buying power surely exhausted (real Bitstamp USD buying power, not the fake Chinese volume that drove this price surge). A better medium term shorting opportunity as selling Bitcoin at $500 will not present itself in Bitcoin for some time, but I aint touching it. I have come to realise that as well as I can forecast general trends in Bitcoin from my armchair, there is something in my psychological make up that makes me a very poor trader. Even If I took the trade and won, I would end up with 25% of the profits on offer and then would be encouraged to make lots of other shitty little capital draining trades on the back of it. Too many times recently I am holding back when I should be going ahead with a trade, regretting it, and then diving in when I should really be sitting back. Indeed, the fact that my nerve broke right at $512 which is where I covered my shorts at is a sure sign for me that this was the top.

Anyhow, enjoy your brief moment in the sun you couple of fucking bampots. I will be back to taunt y'all when Bitcoin is in $200 range. If Bitcoin doesn't get here, then this will be the first time ever that I have been wrong with a downside target. Always a first time for everything though, eh?

[y3804]

Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price  

How are you ever going to learn to find them on your own if people just conveniently hand them over?

A typical mindless religious zealot Not actually debating the arguments or answering the questions, but instead desperately trying to insult the opponent

I have been following the news, and like I said, there are no news that would have an strong enough positive effect on the price.
And we confirm this by... *drums.....* ...by looking at the past price history and not seeing any sustainable positive effects on the price.  


You guys are like characters from of an absurd comedy!

+1000

Most banks will close accounts on April 18th. Let's wait until then. If nothing happens, I'll become bullish

[dropt]

Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price  

How are you ever going to learn to find them on your own if people just conveniently hand them over?

A typical mindless religious zealot Not actually debating the arguments or answering the questions, but instead desperately trying to insult the opponent

I have been following the news, and like I said, there are no news that would have an strong enough positive effect on the price.
And we confirm this by... *drums.....* ...by looking at the past price history and not seeing any sustainable positive effects on the price.  


You guys are like characters from an absurd comedy!

Not exactly.  I'm actually at work right now and don't have time to hold your hand and guide you to the relevent news you're looking for.  You want to talk history, what piece of "news" brought Bitcoin out of the 2$ slump?  What piece of "news" brought the chinese bitcoin rush of 2013?  Good news is irrelevant at this point, this is a subjective bear market, not the objective one you're suggesting.

[rabii]

Bitcoin has multiple dimensions. One is that it is a currency and the other is mining. I am well aware of what it means to mine them and the fact that ASIC technology is very application specific hence the name "ASIC". My point is that all this effort is pointless. Bitcoin mining has reached the point of diminishing returns. If people want to spent 3-5 K on a 1-2 KW ASIC that is fine with me but it won't even pay for itself. On the other hand the pool infrastructure has the ability to be used for "pay for work". No it won't be using ASICs. It may use GPU or CPU that are capable of generalized work.

It would appreciate it if people actually read the idea before dismissing it.

[dropt]

Bitcoin has multiple dimensions. One is that it is a currency and the other is mining. I am well aware of what it means to mine them and the fact that ASIC technology is very application specific hence the name "ASIC". My point is that all this effort is pointless. Bitcoin mining has reached the point of diminishing returns. If people want to spent 3-5 K on a 1-2 KW ASIC that is fine with me but it won't even pay for itself. On the other hand the pool infrastructure has the ability to be used for "pay for work". No it won't be using ASICs. It may use GPU or CPU that are capable of generalized work.

It would appreciate it if people actually read the idea before dismissing it.

Bitcoin has always had diminishing returns, see: block reward halving.  Bitcoin isn't just currency and mining.  It's a distributed public ledger, anything that can be recorded via a ledger can be recorded with bitcoin.  This includes other such things as property ownership. 

The point you're missing is that the blockchain is developed through, in part, a one-way hash function where each succesive block is linked to the previous and in a manner that allows the network to self regulate.  Please propose a method in which "generalized computation" can maintain the validity of the blockchain while remaining a self-regulated entity.

[inca]

Colleagues. If you want to be successful with bitcoin - at any level, I suggest you stop trying to think like a short term trader and start thinking like a VC investor. Real traders are making tons of cash on the bitcoin markets. They don't care if it is being "manipulated" (like the whiners in this thread complain) - every market is manipulated. Successful trading is a high-level skill that takes years to master, and a good trader can make money in any market with enough volatility and transparency (bitcoin has plenty of both). However, unless you are studying trading, have a proven system and have been very successful consistently in other markets, you will not be successful trading bitcoin.

People like MattheCat (he's just one of the loudest and most confused examples) who think they understand what is going on short-term and believe themselves smarter than the market, almost always lose - in any market. Do not follow this intelligent insanity. The market does not suffer fools and hubris gladly. From what I can tell from Mat's posts, he is losing consistently (despite his recent claims) and is very bitter. The market is teaching him lessons daily that he does not want to hear. This is the fate of all who do not trade a system that is proven over time and who do not respect the market.

The VC approach is much easier, and for most of us the better path. It is based on a simple ratio. Potential loss of 100% of your investment or potential gain of 120X your investment. Easy, even for those with no investing experience. Pick your risk capital amount, and let it ride. Or even pull some profits off the table and let the rest ride. Enjoy the journey, be part of a grand experiment and maybe end up richer. VCs don't try to figure out the daily fluctuations in moods and opinions of the masses - they certainly don't worry about evil "manipulators" stealing from them. They enjoy the adventure and the volatility is just entertaining noise to them. They only care about the long-term value potential. And they of course have other eggs in the basket.

None of us know what will happen with bitcoin tomorrow or next year or the year after, but something big is happening and it could be amazing. Has been so far. You would not be on this forum if you did not see this simple fact.  Most of us 3 years ago thought we had maybe a 20% chance to get where we are now. What do you think our chances are going forward? Don't let your arrogance and intelligence make this more complicated than it is.

Good hunting.

+1  Well said bitrider.  Well said.

"Oh yes..very well said indeed bitrider...put that MatTheCat noob right in his place. Well done, another caviar souffle?"

Last time I remember this much euphoria around here, it was early March and Bitcoin was hitting $710.

I am a fucking shite trader although having said that, over all I have still made money but I admit most money I made was in the later part of bull run. A market phase that any fkn halfwit can trade and win. Since Bitcoin has went into reversal, despite pretty accurately forecasting general trends, my absolutely shite trading skills has seen profits minimised with lots of stupid losses in between, and then this monumental loss today has certainly put me into net loss territory for the Jan 2014 - April 2014 period. I broke the adage I keep trying to imbue into myself but never seem to be able to stick to. NEVER TAKE A TRADE IN THE MIDDLE OF NO-MANS LAND! Right now, we are not in no-mans land. We are right on the verge of the long term downtrend with buying power surely exhausted (real Bitstamp USD buying power, not the fake Chinese volume that drove this price surge). A better medium term shorting opportunity as selling Bitcoin at $500 will not present itself in Bitcoin for some time, but I aint touching it. I have come to realise that as well as I can forecast general trends in Bitcoin from my armchair, there is something in my psychological make up that makes me a very poor trader. Even If I took the trade and won, I would end up with 25% of the profits on offer and then would be encouraged to make lots of other shitty little capital draining trades on the back of it. Too many times recently I am holding back when I should be going ahead with a trade, regretting it, and then diving in when I should really be sitting back. Indeed, the fact that my nerve broke right at $512 which is where I covered my shorts at is a sure sign for me that this was the top.

Anyhow, enjoy your brief moment in the sun you couple of fucking bampots. I will be back to taunt y'all when Bitcoin is in $200 range. If Bitcoin doesn't get here, then this will be the first time ever that I have been wrong with a downside target. Always a first time for everything though, eh?

Leverage always gets you in the end. As someone iirc who has owned and traded pm's previously I would have thought you would have learned that lesson Mat. Shorting a market like bitcoin which has experienced exponential price increases and incredible volatility is insane, especially as a market outsider.

It will be interesting to see where things are in six months. Perhaps you will be right and bitcoin will be bouncing along in the 200 dollar range, I am more hopeful we will get another bubble into the 3-10,000 range in the next 24 months. What presumably attracted you to bitcoin, the idea, the protocol etc still holds true. In spite of your poor trading decisions isn't it worth leaving some skin in the game?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Ok, tell me about these important news, that have taken place in the previous months and that I have missed then, and how they are causing positive effects to the bitcoin price  

How are you ever going to learn to find them on your own if people just conveniently hand them over?

A typical mindless religious zealot Not actually debating the arguments or answering the questions, but instead desperately trying to insult the opponent

I have been following the news, and like I said, there are no news that would have an strong enough positive effect on the price.
And we confirm this by... *drums.....* ...by looking at the past price history and not seeing any sustainable positive effects on the price.  


You guys are like characters from an absurd comedy!

Not exactly.  I'm actually at work right now and don't have time to hold your hand and guide you to the relevent news you're looking for.  You want to talk history, what piece of "news" brought Bitcoin out of the 2$ slump?  What piece of "news" brought the chinese bitcoin rush of 2013?  Good news is irrelevant at this point, this is a subjective bear market, not the objective one you're suggesting.

You're at work and you are unable to copy some of the important news here, but you have enough time to repeatedly insult me. Having some problems with time managment, are we?

And now, I see that you are already saying that no news is needed. Having some problems with consistency are we?

I really don't care what triggered the rise out of 2$, but considering the time, it could have very well been a successful trade for couple of pounds of coke on Silk Road.

The rise in China was more interesting though. It was actually triggered by rumors about couple of rather important but half-witted Chinese officials, who ate up the hype and who really thought that BTC could actually threaten the dollar, and therefor serve the goals of CPC. That was the reason on why there was actually a thorough piece about bitcoin on a news program that has a reputation of spreading the word of CPC, and that actually created the bigger surge upwards.
It was all over when smarter officials got involved and explained that by pumping BTC, they are actually helping the dollar by buying something with only virtual value, and buying it mainly from westerners. Meaning that money was actually flowing out of China and into the hands of Americans  
Wasn't exactly a proud moment for China

[rabii]

I don't want to get into a big argument about practicality of Bitcoin mining. I have said my bit. I will point out that it is wrong to assume other people "don't know" something just because they have a different point of view. The more probable thing is that different people have different goals. If you have different goals then you will have different views.

[galbros]

Wasn't today the deadline for the Chinese to suspend trading in bitcoin?  If so, well then the Chinese selling pressure stopped so the price rose.  Maybe we've seen the worst for awhile, at least until Eric Holder shows up....

[MatTheCat]

Wasn't today the deadline for the Chinese to suspend trading in bitcoin?  If so, well then the Chinese selling pressure stopped so the price rose.  Maybe we've seen the worst for awhile, at least until Eric Holder shows up....

Great Theory.

Now explain to me why each and every leg of the entire fkn pump was initiated on Huobi?

Leverage always gets you in the end. As someone iirc who has owned and traded pm's previously I would have thought you would have learned that lesson Mat. Shorting a market like bitcoin which has experienced exponential price increases and incredible volatility is insane, especially as a market outsider.

It will be interesting to see where things are in six months. Perhaps you will be right and bitcoin will be bouncing along in the 200 dollar range, I am more hopeful we will get another bubble into the 3-10,000 range in the next 24 months. What presumably attracted you to bitcoin, the idea, the protocol etc still holds true. In spite of your poor trading decisions isn't it worth leaving some skin in the game?

I was never a metals investor. I bought metals based on the never look down fairy stories of mofos like Mike Maloney, James Turk. So there we have Gold Bug, Silver Stacker, and here we have Bitcoin Nutter. The metal that I currently own is physical metal that I hold in person. Although I am down a bit on the gold I bought and down a lot on the Silver I purchased (large premiums on both with an additional tax on Silver), I am glad that I own some metal. I don't feel quite the same way about the few Bitcoins and Alt-coins that I have. Precious metals are 'something', crypto-currencies are 'nothing'.

What attracted me to Bitcoin was being able to buy drugs online with it. That was way back in 2011. What finally attracted me to it as a speculator was the massive profits that I was missing out on time and time again. I came to Bitcoin with gradually putting around $20K USD into my Bitstamp account and done quite well without having even the slightest clue of any TA whatsoever. Since the Dec crashes (I ignored the 'advice' that was at large on here and got right out of Bitcoin still in $1000-$1100 range), I have gained a much better uznderstanding of TA principles but never done as well in the bear market as I did in the bull trend, despite calling it correct 90% of the time. Conclusion. It is much easier to profit in a market whose market cap is increasing than in market that is in decline. I never learned about shorting on the likes of Bitfinex until late Jan. Since I had been correctly calling down trends left right and centre, how could I possibly lose taking leverage in order to short Bitcoin!? Turns out I could lose by suffering from terrible market entry and exit timing which can only be down to some psychological flaw that I suffer from but can't recognise or identify in myself.  But it is there, and it is fucking with my decision making and I can't do anything about it except not put myself in any position where I am likely to become a victim to it. If I simply followed the advice that I post on here and give other people (when I am away from the trading hot seat), then I would do very well. Problem is, I usually don't. I usually have 'smarter' ideas that come to me through impulse which amount to nothing more than my emotions being stretched in each and every direction by the market.

Another thing about using leverage and shorting in general, is that it is a negative trade, which is harder for the intuition to comprehend. For example, whenever I am long Bitcoin and the trade is going to go against me, there is a 70% chance that I will have a dream or some kind of recurring intuition that will warn me out of the trade. Indeed, my strong point in Bitcoin so far has been getting out of long positions that i have taken at much higher price levels and avoiding taking an absolute kicking. With a short position however, the intuition works in the opposite way. When the trade is going or is about to go against a short position, I will sleep soundly. When the trade is going to in my favour (i.e. negatively), I will get spooked out about Bitcoin and have on more than one occasion left a short trade right on the eve of what would have been a momentous cashing in on my part due to getting too spooked out by Bitcoin.

The last couple of nights, I was dreaming positively about Bitcoin so felt no pressing need to jump up and take action with my trades. It is not until I wake up properly that my conscious mind can deduce that because my subconscious mind is feeling positive about Bitcoin at that point in time, that my short trade is getting fucking slaughtered.

I don't think that I will ever short Bitcoin or anything else ever again. I don't like the fact that in a short trade, you don't actually own a damn thing and I recognise that short trading perplexes the subconscious process. It is unnatural to feel positively about a degenerative process and I am a person who relies heavily on subconscious instincts/intutions having proven in spectacular fashion to myself, that I simply not rational enough, or calculating enough, and especially not disciplined enough to trade on raw data.

This means that I am out of Bitcoin for now as last vivid intuition that I had tells me that Bitcoin is in for a good bit of collapsing action yet. So whilst I am not going to short it any further, I certainly amn't going long cos I know what is around the corner, regardless of any roller-coaster action between now and then.

[piramida]

I could lose by suffering from terrible market exit and entry timing which can only be down to some psychological flaw that I suffer from but can't recognise what it is.

It is greed. Once you realize you can't have it all, and be content with just having 1000% per year, you will never lose again

[MatTheCat]

I could lose by suffering from terrible market exit and entry timing which can only be down to some psychological flaw that I suffer from but can't recognise what it is.

It is greed. Once you realize you can't have it all, and be content with just having 1000% per year, you will never lose again

I am not a greedy person. Greed isn't my problem.

My problem probably lies somewhere in my overly emotional, impulsive and reactionary nature. Trading is a game for cool headed, precarious, and patient types....and that aint me and it never will be so I may as well just admit it to myself.

When/if I take another position in Bitcoin, it will be long, holding Bitcoins long term in an actual cold store wallet with no attempts to trade. My buy-in point will also be considerably lower than the $340 low of last week.......and the last I heard from the little elves in my head, it is going to happen at some point. A lot more system shocks are in the pipeline for Bitcoin I am afraid.

[Hyena]

I could lose by suffering from terrible market exit and entry timing which can only be down to some psychological flaw that I suffer from but can't recognise what it is.

It is greed. Once you realize you can't have it all, and be content with just having 1000% per year, you will never lose again

I am not a greedy person. Greed isn't my problem.

My problem probably lies somewhere in my overly emotional, impulsive and reactionary nature. Trading is a game for cool headed, precarious, and patient types....and that aint me and it never will be so I may as well just admit it to myself.

When/if I take another position in Bitcoin, it will be long, holding Bitcoins long term in an actual cold store wallet with no attempts to trade. My buy-in point will also  be lower than the $340 low of last week.......and the last I heard from the little elves in my head, it is going to happen at some point.

Every single time I have attempted short term trading, I have lost money luckily I have only lost some pocket money that way, big gains sit in long term holdings. I'd still say it's greed whether you admit it or not. If you're not greedy, take that beer money profit and you'd be always a winner. But who wants beer money? That's not exciting at all. So short term trading becomes gambling.