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Author Topic: This rally might be real  (Read 1713 times)
notme
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January 08, 2012, 07:40:26 PM
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I like to consider myself rationally bullish.  The thing that bit me last time was I underestimated the irrational bulls and sold out most of my holdings between 3 and 7.  The thing that amazes me about this rally is that google is only showing pre-May search levels.  When I start seeing higher hype levels, I'll believe the bubble story, but I'm not letting go so easy this time.

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bittenbob
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January 08, 2012, 07:43:49 PM
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Id say it looks like we are about to head down around 6.80 or so. Either that or take off but too much resistance built up just below 7.20 for me to think thats going to happen.
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January 08, 2012, 07:45:24 PM
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Id say it looks like we are about to head down around 6.80 or so. Either that or take off but too much resistance built up just below 7.20 for me to think thats going to happen.

Sure, but I'm talking daily timeframe, not hourly.

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bittenbob
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January 08, 2012, 07:48:44 PM
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It all depends on how much of a movement this drop causes bitcoinica to affect the market. It affects the markets more than many think because then the trading bots outside of bitcoinica can signal this as a rally or crash executing large orders. It really is fascinating to watch for this reason but makes me nervous every time we see a rapid drop.
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January 08, 2012, 07:49:06 PM
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When I start seeing higher hype levels, I'll believe the bubble story.

arepo
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January 08, 2012, 07:49:17 PM
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I like to consider myself rationally bullish.  The thing that bit me last time was I underestimated the irrational bulls and sold out most of my holdings between 3 and 7.  The thing that amazes me about this rally is that google is only showing pre-May search levels.  When I start seeing higher hype levels, I'll believe the bubble story, but I'm not letting go so easy this time.

fuck google search volume. we wouldn't have gotten this high if some serious traders weren't expecting something. hype is growing in the BTC circles, which are well-established now and don't rely on google searches but rather on browser bookmarks. from the whispers of a reversal early last month to the mid-December rally to the Christmas day rally to the huge buys New Year's Eve, we're on our way up again, bears be damned.

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notme
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January 08, 2012, 07:55:07 PM
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When I start seeing higher hype levels, I'll believe the bubble story.



Look at the 12 month though... Still way lower than last time we rallied hard.  We aren't overhyped yet.  I doubt the general public will pay a bit of attention until we make new highs and stay there.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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arepo
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January 08, 2012, 08:06:02 PM
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I like to consider myself rationally bullish.  The thing that bit me last time was I underestimated the irrational bulls and sold out most of my holdings between 3 and 7.  The thing that amazes me about this rally is that google is only showing pre-May search levels.  When I start seeing higher hype levels, I'll believe the bubble story, but I'm not letting go so easy this time.

seriously, any evidence that the correlation between google trends and BTC prices should continue? and anyway in a thread discussing the correlation awhile back, it was determined that it actually trails prices rather than predicts them.

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notme
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January 08, 2012, 08:10:11 PM
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It's just one small indicator among many.  But thanks for trying to protect me from making decisions unwisely.  Disclaimer: google trends data is delayed several days.... Do not allow it to influence your trading decisions without understanding this fact.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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arepo
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January 08, 2012, 08:25:25 PM
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It's just one small indicator among many.  But thanks for trying to protect me from making decisions unwisely.  Disclaimer: google trends data is delayed several days.... Do not allow it to influence your trading decisions without understanding this fact.

i figure that's what this forum is for Smiley

and if we do see BTC bubble 2.0, i wouldn't be surprised if it behaves a lot differently. you can complain about how fundamentals haven't changed all you want, but BTC is one giant mind-game. i don't even think many of the technical indicators normally used by traders apply to this market, which may in turn increase its strangeness even more because many traders are basing their decisions on them anyway.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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StewartJ
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January 08, 2012, 08:40:43 PM
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It's just one small indicator among many.  But thanks for trying to protect me from making decisions unwisely.  Disclaimer: google trends data is delayed several days.... Do not allow it to influence your trading decisions without understanding this fact.

i figure that's what this forum is for Smiley

and if we do see BTC bubble 2.0, i wouldn't be surprised if it behaves a lot differently. you can complain about how fundamentals haven't changed all you want, but BTC is one giant mind-game. i don't even think many of the technical indicators normally used by traders apply to this market, which may in turn increase its strangeness even more because many traders are basing their decisions on them anyway.

I think ultimately the best indicators we have are:
- stay on top of the real-time charts,
- assess the immediate sentiment on Speculation threads,
- go with the rallies when they pop resistance,
- and of course, watch out for Ineedausername's postings !!!

Smiley
arepo
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January 08, 2012, 08:42:43 PM
 #12

It's just one small indicator among many.  But thanks for trying to protect me from making decisions unwisely.  Disclaimer: google trends data is delayed several days.... Do not allow it to influence your trading decisions without understanding this fact.

i figure that's what this forum is for Smiley

and if we do see BTC bubble 2.0, i wouldn't be surprised if it behaves a lot differently. you can complain about how fundamentals haven't changed all you want, but BTC is one giant mind-game. i don't even think many of the technical indicators normally used by traders apply to this market, which may in turn increase its strangeness even more because many traders are basing their decisions on them anyway.

I think ultimately the best indicators we have are:
- view the our real-time charts,
- assess the immediate sentiment on these Speculation threads,
- go with the rallies when they pop resistance,
- and of course, watch out for Ineedausername's postings !!!

Smiley

haha inau tends indeed to be suspiciously correct. it's a good thing his latest prediction is starting to look questionable or i might have had to call shenanigans...

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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ineededausername
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January 08, 2012, 08:44:26 PM
 #13

It's just one small indicator among many.  But thanks for trying to protect me from making decisions unwisely.  Disclaimer: google trends data is delayed several days.... Do not allow it to influence your trading decisions without understanding this fact.

i figure that's what this forum is for Smiley

and if we do see BTC bubble 2.0, i wouldn't be surprised if it behaves a lot differently. you can complain about how fundamentals haven't changed all you want, but BTC is one giant mind-game. i don't even think many of the technical indicators normally used by traders apply to this market, which may in turn increase its strangeness even more because many traders are basing their decisions on them anyway.

I think ultimately the best indicators we have are:
- view the our real-time charts,
- assess the immediate sentiment on these Speculation threads,
- go with the rallies when they pop resistance,
- and of course, watch out for Ineedausername's postings !!!

Smiley

haha inau tends indeed to be suspiciously correct. it's a good thing his latest prediction is starting to look questionable or i might have had to call shenanigans...

I might just be throwing a wrong one out there on purpose Wink

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January 08, 2012, 08:46:11 PM
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huge correction coming guys, borrowitz-einstein triangulum indicator in the red
cloon
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January 08, 2012, 08:48:48 PM
 #15

borrowitz-einstein triangulum indicator in the red

- yes sounds like a very true information...

ps: my heisenberg-hawking-universum-utra-indicator says that too

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StewartJ
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January 08, 2012, 08:50:48 PM
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huge correction coming guys, borrowitz-einstein triangulum indicator in the red

When you say "huge" correction, could you be more....specific?
Piper67
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January 08, 2012, 08:53:47 PM
 #17

borrowitz-einstein triangulum indicator in the red

- yes sounds like a very true information...

ps: my heisenberg-hawking-universum-utra-indicator says that too

Uncouple the Heisenberg compensators!
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January 08, 2012, 08:54:15 PM
 #18

huge correction coming guys, borrowitz-einstein triangulum indicator in the red

Are we talking down to $6, $5 ?  More data please....

I'm a professional trader, the triangulum never lies, bro. Once you see a Borrowitz-Einstein triangulum, you know something's gonna happen, it will either go down or go up. That's my advice to you guys: be very careful, it can go either way.
ThomasV
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January 08, 2012, 08:56:40 PM
 #19

huge correction coming guys, borrowitz-einstein triangulum indicator in the red

wait.. a triangulum with 3 edgeums ?

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arepo
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January 08, 2012, 08:57:07 PM
 #20

huge correction coming guys, borrowitz-einstein triangulum indicator in the red

Are we talking down to $6, $5 ?  More data please....

I'm a professional trader, the triangulum never lies, bro. Once you see a Borrowitz-Einstein triangulum, you know something's gonna happen, it will either go down or go up. That's my advice to you guys: be very careful, it can go either way.

i'm a professional professional trader. don't listen to this amateur. the Borrowitz-Einstein triangulum ensures that it will go up, then down. this guy clearly doesn't know what he's talking about.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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