Sylon
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May 08, 2014, 07:38:48 PM |
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toknormal
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Activity: 3066
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May 08, 2014, 07:41:56 PM |
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I really wish I had the knowledge to trade on the dips. And I dont have the bollocks to risk it either!
The way to "have the bollocks" is to always take a long term view. Your long term view informs your decision in the dip: [1] - if you decided it's going up in the long term, buy the dip because even if it goes down further your in long term anyway and it will go up according to your long term view [2] - if you decided it's going down long term, wait for the "dip" to come back up to the next peak and sell I suppose your next question is "how do I arrive at a long term view". Here's how I did it: Blackcoin is CINNI's "big brother" kind of. It's a similar coin with similar characteristsics but ahead of CINNI in network effect and age. It's currently at 30000 Satoshis at the moment with 5 times the coin supply. I decided that CINNI could reasonably get to at least half of Blackcoin's price corrected for coin supply (in other words "Marketcap" if you want to use those stats). The coin supply factor is 5, so using a calculator, that works out at 30,000 divided by2 times 5 = 75,000 Satoshis. So I concluded that CINNI could reasonably get to a minimum of 75000 Sats barring any disasters. Somehere between 75000 Sats and 150000 Sats (the current BC price corrected for coin supply) I might think about taking profits. If CINNI manages to surpass BC then we're looking at a price above 150000 Sats. There are lots of ways of arriving at a personal valuation for a coin. Thats just my way for this particular one. (Only problem is I got thrown out of the market at 22 with the fast rise. I've bought back in at half the position I had. Still, will be interesting. Since I've been writing this we're now back above 30000). Hope that helps you have stronger "bollocks" ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) b.t.w. to that guy pumping fluttercoin, I'm in fluttercoin so I'm not that fluttered about it, but I don't think the 'pump' is by any means over on this one. It may settle for a while though.
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alexcfr
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May 08, 2014, 07:43:22 PM |
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This pump is over guys! But the Fluttercoin pump has just started!! Get in while you can!
flutter pump is over too lol quick
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CarlesPuyol
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1000
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May 08, 2014, 07:47:31 PM |
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I love the Pump and Dump that going to the coin ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
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digit
Legendary
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Activity: 1672
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May 08, 2014, 07:48:48 PM |
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Grab your Cinni and come play at Atomic Trade before the maintenance starts at mint ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXk9BTly.png&t=665&c=Z5F_yJms31WC3Q)
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Mk2vr6
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 07:49:46 PM |
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I really wish I had the knowledge to trade on the dips. And I dont have the bollocks to risk it either!
The way to "have the bollocks" is to always take a long term view. Your long term view informs your decision in the dip: [1] - if you decided it's going up in the long term, buy the dip because even if it goes down further your in long term anyway and it will go up according to your long term view [2] - if you decided it's going down long term, wait for the "dip" to come back up to the next peak and sell I suppose your next question is "how do I arrive at a long term view". Here's how I did it: Blackcoin is CINNI's "big brother" kind of. It's a similar coin with similar characteristsics but ahead of CINNI in network effect and age. It's currently at 30000 Satoshis at the moment with 5 times the coin supply. I decided that CINNI could reasonably get to at least half of Blackcoin's price corrected for coin supply (in other words "Marketcap" if you want to use those stats). The coin supply factor is 5, so using a calculator, that works out at 30,000 divided by2 times 5 = 75,000 Satoshis. So I concluded that CINNI could reasonably get to a minimum of 75000 Sats barring any disasters. Somehere between 75000 Sats and 150000 Sats (the current BC price corrected for coin supply) I might think about taking profits. If CINNI manages to surpass BC then we're looking at a price above 150000 Sats. There are lots of ways of arriving at a personal valuation for a coin. Thats just my way for this particular one. (Only problem is I got thrown out of the market at 22 with the fast rise. I've bought back in at half the position I had. Still, will be interesting. Since I've been writing this we're now back above 30000). Hope that helps you have stronger "bollocks" ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) b.t.w. to that guy pumping fluttercoin, I'm in fluttercoin so I'm not that fluttered about it, but I don't think the 'pump' is by any means over on this one. It may settle for a while though. Thanks buddy. I've sort of worked out a similar price based on market cap and previous history with BC. The only thing I struggle on is trading on the swings. Every time I do, I either get it wrong or I'm too hasty and end up with less of a position. Very good info. Feel free to add some more, I enjoy reading about trading. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Edit/ do you have a prediction for what to expect while mintpal is down?
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toknormal
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Activity: 3066
Merit: 1188
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May 08, 2014, 07:55:15 PM |
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I've sort of worked out a similar price based on market cap and previous history with BC. The only thing I struggle on is trading on the swings. Every time I do, I either get it wrong or I'm too hasty and end up with less of a position.
The easy answer to that is DON'T TRADE THE SWINGS !! LoL Unless your reasonably experienced and are sitting in front of a realtime chart (I mean up to the second, not minut) with variable ranges, convergeance divergeance signal lines and trading reaches, forget it. You'll loose money 4 times out of 5. As it happens, this coin is now on Bitcoinwisdom so you can folow it there. For example, that dump that just happened from 32 down to 27 was entirely predictable to anyone watching the charts. It happened right at the top of the 5 minute wave so it may have been done my an experienced day trader who was watching that and planned to buy right back in at 27. You don't see any of those patterns by just watching the price. You can't tell if a dip is actually part of a larges rise or is a rise is part of a longer decline in price. You can tell that with charts.
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Mk2vr6
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 07:58:45 PM |
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I've sort of worked out a similar price based on market cap and previous history with BC. The only thing I struggle on is trading on the swings. Every time I do, I either get it wrong or I'm too hasty and end up with less of a position.
The easy answer to that is DON'T TRADE THE SWINGS !! LoL Unless your reasonably experienced and are sitting in front of a realtime chart (I mean up to the second, not minut) with variable ranges, convergeance divergeance signal lines and trading reaches, forget it. You'll loose money 4 times out of 5. As it happens, this coin is now on Bitcoinwisdom so you can folow it there. For example, that dump that just happened from 32 down to 27 was entirely predictable to anyone watching the charts. It happened right at the top of the 5 minute wave so it may have been done my an experienced day trader who was watching that and planned to buy right back in at 27. You don't see any of those patterns by just watching the price. You can't tell if a dip is actually part of a larges rise or is a rise is part of a longer decline in price. You can tell that with charts. Yeah I have spent lots of time studying Bitcoinwisdom and find it very hard to make head or tails of it all! I think you've offered sound advise. Take a long position and just wait until I am happy to exit. The problem is I kick myself everytime I see a downtrend, and not to capitalise on selling and buying back in lower, and then seeing what I could have won! haha
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Queeq
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 08:10:03 PM |
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I've sort of worked out a similar price based on market cap and previous history with BC. The only thing I struggle on is trading on the swings. Every time I do, I either get it wrong or I'm too hasty and end up with less of a position.
The easy answer to that is DON'T TRADE THE SWINGS !! LoL Unless your reasonably experienced and are sitting in front of a realtime chart (I mean up to the second, not minut) with variable ranges, convergeance divergeance signal lines and trading reaches, forget it. You'll loose money 4 times out of 5. As it happens, this coin is now on Bitcoinwisdom so you can folow it there. For example, that dump that just happened from 32 down to 27 was entirely predictable to anyone watching the charts. It happened right at the top of the 5 minute wave so it may have been done my an experienced day trader who was watching that and planned to buy right back in at 27. You don't see any of those patterns by just watching the price. You can't tell if a dip is actually part of a larges rise or is a rise is part of a longer decline in price. You can tell that with charts. Yeah I have spent lots of time studying Bitcoinwisdom and find it very hard to make head or tails of it all! I think you've offered sound advise. Take a long position and just wait until I am happy to exit. The problem is I kick myself everytime I see a downtrend, and not to capitalise on selling and buying back in lower, and then seeing what I could have won! haha Thinking about "what could have had happened" is one of the greatest distractions for trader. Study Elliott wave analysis, that would help. Currently, I believe, we are at the beginning of wave C of downtrend which is the worst. Personally I prefer smaller gains with minimum risk. They add up to decent profit. So I wouldn't risk entering the market now.
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greffd888
Newbie
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Activity: 40
Merit: 0
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May 08, 2014, 08:12:44 PM |
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I love the Pump and Dump that going to the coin
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Mk2vr6
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 08:24:10 PM |
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Mintpal goes down, and it goes quiet on here too. How strange!
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Queeq
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 08:29:32 PM |
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So there must be some announcement now, right?
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Palaxidon
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 08:31:06 PM |
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I've sort of worked out a similar price based on market cap and previous history with BC. The only thing I struggle on is trading on the swings. Every time I do, I either get it wrong or I'm too hasty and end up with less of a position.
The easy answer to that is DON'T TRADE THE SWINGS !! LoL Unless your reasonably experienced and are sitting in front of a realtime chart (I mean up to the second, not minut) with variable ranges, convergeance divergeance signal lines and trading reaches, forget it. You'll loose money 4 times out of 5. As it happens, this coin is now on Bitcoinwisdom so you can folow it there. For example, that dump that just happened from 32 down to 27 was entirely predictable to anyone watching the charts. It happened right at the top of the 5 minute wave so it may have been done my an experienced day trader who was watching that and planned to buy right back in at 27. You don't see any of those patterns by just watching the price. You can't tell if a dip is actually part of a larges rise or is a rise is part of a longer decline in price. You can tell that with charts. Yeah I have spent lots of time studying Bitcoinwisdom and find it very hard to make head or tails of it all! I think you've offered sound advise. Take a long position and just wait until I am happy to exit. The problem is I kick myself everytime I see a downtrend, and not to capitalise on selling and buying back in lower, and then seeing what I could have won! haha Thinking about "what could have had happened" is one of the greatest distractions for trader. Study Elliott wave analysis, that would help. Currently, I believe, we are at the beginning of wave C of downtrend which is the worst. Personally I prefer smaller gains with minimum risk. They add up to decent profit. So I wouldn't risk entering the market now. Been studying for a while this charts... I predict everything right but im too impatient to weit for my analysis to buy back in or sell higher. Now I also have prediction that this is so called -beginning of wave C
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YoyodyneSystems
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May 08, 2014, 08:31:46 PM |
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It's just the maintenance. Whale's pulled BTC off till it's done.
Everyone needs to chill.
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CryptoGretzky
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 08:32:17 PM |
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My wallet version 1.0.0.0 is not syncing at all. Is there an updated wallet?
Also, I sent 4000 coins to cryptsy with 220+ confirmations and still no pending on crypsty. Could it not syncing have anything to do with it?
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Queeq
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2014, 08:35:47 PM |
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Been studying for a while this charts... I predict everything right but im too impatient to weit for my analysis to buy back in or sell higher. Now I also have prediction that this is so called -beginning of wave C
Could also be B or 4, especially if we proceed sideways and form triangle or flat.
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toknormal
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May 08, 2014, 08:54:30 PM |
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The thing about pattern templates like Eliot waves is that the longer the time period and the bigger the market, the more relevant they become.
In a tiny market like this with very short time periods, you may get patterns that resemble theory but half the time it's just a panic buy or sell that's going on.
For example, if I wanted to blow the current pattern to kingdom come - whatever it is - all I'd need is about 20 BTC and and spare hour. In fact that's exactly what happens half the time in cryptocurrency markets. They're small enough for groups of people to carry out engineered pumps and dumps so it's difficult to get a true valuation for the coin unless there are very strong fundamentals that always work their way through the artificial patterns.
All the same, we are all probably going through a small piece of financial history right now. All this trading, anxiety attacks, pumping, dumping, squabbling over "scam clones", who's the best community, transaction speed, difficulty retargets, POS, POW, high vs low supply and "early holders" is actually doing real work in bringing forth a new financial system.
Remember:
Cryptocurrencies are unlevered base money - 1 seat for 1 person Fiat is highly levered credit money - 1 seat for 10 persons
Sooner or later this fact will find it's way into the mainstream and cracks will start to appear in the financial landscape of old. By that time, everyone who's had their baptism of fire on here will know exactly what's coming.
Others will be in for a bit more of a surprise.
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DarshUX
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May 08, 2014, 08:55:06 PM |
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What time does Mintpal come back on? I think when it comes back on the price will move to match whatever the price is on Cryptsy.
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