What spurs the next run?

[BitcoinBobbeh]

I'll admit that the last few months have turned me into a pessimist, at least short-term. I'm in it for the long haul but to see so little progress when you're accustomed to it coming so rapidly raises questions. So - regarding this year:


Ever since the big run last December, "good news" has been scarce in my eyes. The only "good news" that is certain to happen this year is Overstock accepting BTC on orders internationally - what affect, if any, that will have on the world market is yet to be known. Now, a lot of people recently have been claiming that "Wall Street Money" is going to start pouring in relatively soon, but I have no idea what they're basing that off of. Keep in mind that this is the same group that produced dozens of "OMG OMG TO THA M00N" threads yesterday when BTC went up 30 bucks.

My confidence wanes.

I don't know what I'm asking. I guess the point of this thread is to get people to post positive things that actually have merit.

"To tha m00n" doesn't mean much without a citation.

Anyone got a pick-me-up? And a source?

[master-P]

Gox's 200,000+ btc is going to be liquidated soon, and that could be bullish or bearish depending on how you look at it. Some people view the recent positive assessment by financial analysts as bullish. I don't really see much on the horizon right now that would draw the masses that we'd need to go from $500 to $5000. The average person who had heard of btc has only heard negative things about it; hacks, stolen coins, drugs, nerds, etc.

[frienemy]

Facebook connects with Changetip --> bitcoin tipping on Facebook will be possible soon.
https://www.changetip.com/tip-online/facebook

[TERA]

Bitcoin opens on eTrade

[blatchcorn]

Gox's 200,000+ btc is going to be liquidated soon, and that could be bullish or bearish depending on how you look at it. Some people view the recent positive assessment by financial analysts as bullish. I don't really see much on the horizon right now that would draw the masses that we'd need to go from $500 to $5000. The average person who had heard of btc has only heard negative things about it; hacks, stolen coins, drugs, nerds, etc.

How can a sudden rush of supply be good?

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Bitcoin opens on eTrade

[citation needed]¹

[Wilhelm]

First Chinese ATM. Due to it's success China will be forced to go in to bitcoin.
Prediction: China will go all in and place many ATMs. It will go all in and build all kind of bitcoin infra like ATMs to bring bitcoin to the masses and make chinese the bitcoin marketleader (i'm not chinese)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-china-bitcoin-idUSBREA3F0MK20140416

[frienemy]

http://www.coindesk.com/new-colorado-marijuana-vending-machines-accept-bitcoin/

[Wilhelm]

Gox's 200,000+ btc is going to be liquidated soon, and that could be bullish or bearish depending on how you look at it. Some people view the recent positive assessment by financial analysts as bullish. I don't really see much on the horizon right now that would draw the masses that we'd need to go from $500 to $5000. The average person who had heard of btc has only heard negative things about it; hacks, stolen coins, drugs, nerds, etc.

How can a sudden rush of supply be good?

If liquidating you do not want to kill the market unless you want to kill bitcoin.
True that this would cause a sideways market for a long time if they dump the coins for fiat.
On the otherhand if all goxxed get their BTC then it could trigger more trading, hodling or usage of bitcoin which is good.

[bitcoinsrus]

Gox's 200,000+ btc is going to be liquidated soon, and that could be bullish or bearish depending on how you look at it. Some people view the recent positive assessment by financial analysts as bullish. I don't really see much on the horizon right now that would draw the masses that we'd need to go from $500 to $5000. The average person who had heard of btc has only heard negative things about it; hacks, stolen coins, drugs, nerds, etc.

How can a sudden rush of supply be good?

If liquidating you do not want to kill the market unless you want to kill bitcoin.
True that this would cause a sideways market for a long time if they dump the coins for fiat.
On the otherhand if all goxxed get their BTC then it could trigger more trading, hodling or usage of bitcoin which is good.

And also it is good that people might get some of their coins back.  More user confidence.  They probably wouldn't all sell because the price would start to drop and those buy walls would kick in.  The smart ones wouldn't dump right away, they would just hold until the price goes and then maybe sell a few.

[dropt]

[citation needed]¹

Opinions don't require citations.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

[citation needed]¹

Opinions don't require citations.

This thread does 

I did some Googling - best I got was this:

http://www.paymentssource.com/news/coinmkt-using-e-trade-to-move-funds-to-digital-currency-exchange-3016744-1.html

[JimboToronto]

http://www.coindesk.com/new-colorado-marijuana-vending-machines-accept-bitcoin/

Cool. Thanx for the link.

“It’s quick, it’s efficient, it’s trackable.” Gotta love it.

[aminorex]

Google payments accepts bitcoin.

[devphp]

It went up too fast too high in November, it has to cool down for a few months. There are new coins mined every day that have to find buyers too, don't forget that supply of bitcoins is always increasing. Don't expect a new run for another 3 months, since the network effect has to work its way through the internet and has to sink in to people's minds, and don't forget that summer is a slow season in most investments anyway, people are on vacation. September is when things may start to pick up again. Sorry if that doesn't raise your confidence much.

[smoothie]

ANSWER:

1. Media coverage

2. Speculation

3. Development

4. Adoption by merchants/businesses.

[Newfeeling]

I just had a random thought and though I'm sure it's been discussed before ... just imagine how much of a shitstorm this would cause:

Random picture tweet from Tim Cook early June

Picture of QR code with Apple logo drawn in the middle

Has surprise conference next day

"SUPRISE MOTHAFUCKAS. I'M HERE TO ANNOUNCE THE FIRST INSURED BITCOIN WALLET we're gonna charge you a buttload of fees to make it worth it to us, but fuck it, safe coin storage and itz apple amirite guiz???. iWallet!! EVERYONE REJOICE AND CREAM YOUR iPANTS ! **crowd goes wild, bitcointalk and reddit have civil war over how this is awesome/the worst news in the history bitcoin, price gets huge pump regardless**"

[Bit_Happy]

What spurs the next run?

Greed.
Markets boil down to Greed vs Fear, in essence it really is that simple.
Fear has been in charge for several months and Greed is preparing to take over.




One (of many) fundamental reasons for BTC to rally is the Dollar getting weaker:

[MatTheCat]

I'll admit that the last few months have turned me into a pessimist, at least short-term. I'm in it for the long haul but to see so little progress when you're accustomed to it coming so rapidly raises questions. So - regarding this year:


Ever since the big run last December, "good news" has been scarce in my eyes. The only "good news" that is certain to happen this year is Overstock accepting BTC on orders internationally - what affect, if any, that will have on the world market is yet to be known. Now, a lot of people recently have been claiming that "Wall Street Money" is going to start pouring in relatively soon, but I have no idea what they're basing that off of. Keep in mind that this is the same group that produced dozens of "OMG OMG TO THA M00N" threads yesterday when BTC went up 30 bucks.

My confidence wanes.

I don't know what I'm asking. I guess the point of this thread is to get people to post positive things that actually have merit.

"To tha m00n" doesn't mean much without a citation.

Anyone got a pick-me-up? And a source?

I will answer your question.

For Bitcoin to go parabolic once again, it is going to require some kind of capital flight. That is Bitcoins real practical advantage over conventional finance. A means of circumventing a nations fiscal controls. This could happen at anytime. It has happened before in that April 2013 was attributed to capital flight from Cyprus and Dec 2013 was attributed largely to Chinese investors piling into Bitcoin in order as a means of circumventing their own countries capital controls. This is why the PBOC has given Bitcoin a bit of a disapproving frown and we have been in a bear market ever since.

Without a surge in capital flight interest, Bitcoin will trend back to where it would have been had China never entered the market to begin with, give or take a few hundred K's worth of stolen, seized, or court appropriated BTC or so. However, it is not as simple as that. People outside of Bitcoin view it as monstrously overvalued and dangerously volatile at the moment. People within Bitcoin however have greatly inflated sense of price expectations that are not possible under present conditions, but these inflated expectations help facilitate some tremendously rapid pump n dump efforts. Vast sums of money gladly piled into Bitcoin at $750, $540, $400, and sub $400. Recent counter trend recovery's have shown a figure well short of $750, and then just around bang on $540 to now be sums where buying pressure in Bitcoin completely dries up. I am in no doubt that we will be able to add $400 to that list of important resistance points soon enough. Without some new and significant avenue of interest in Bitcoin, this patter of grinding bear market, dump, pump, dump and then yet more grinding bear market is set to continue until either Bitcoin gets so depressed that the pump n dump mechanics of the current market yields diminishing returns to the point of it just not being that worthwhile anymore; or until some X-Factor kicks in and the most likely X-Factor for me will be some kind of emergency capital flight out of a crisis stricken nation.

The increased adoption that people talk about for everyday legal purchases will take a very long time to gain traction, far longer than any Bitcoiner's patience can endure. This isn't like Facebook that entered onto the scene with practically no meaningful competition. The fiat currencies already have the 'medium of exchange' market well and truly tied up and are frankly much safer, easier, and more convenient to use for 99% of everyday purchases.

In summation, for Bitcoin to go on another bull-run, the demand has got to come-in and overturn the churning of the present manipulated pump n dump forces of the present overvalued and declining market. The only conceivable avenue of such interest at this point in time is capital flight. Therefore, if ya are all praying to get another Bitcoin bull-run anytime soon, then ya are all praying for economic collapse, misery, and suffering, in some non US hegemony compliant economy that is getting beaten with some geo-political stick.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

I'll admit that the last few months have turned me into a pessimist, at least short-term. I'm in it for the long haul but to see so little progress when you're accustomed to it coming so rapidly raises questions. So - regarding this year:


Ever since the big run last December, "good news" has been scarce in my eyes. The only "good news" that is certain to happen this year is Overstock accepting BTC on orders internationally - what affect, if any, that will have on the world market is yet to be known. Now, a lot of people recently have been claiming that "Wall Street Money" is going to start pouring in relatively soon, but I have no idea what they're basing that off of. Keep in mind that this is the same group that produced dozens of "OMG OMG TO THA M00N" threads yesterday when BTC went up 30 bucks.

My confidence wanes.

I don't know what I'm asking. I guess the point of this thread is to get people to post positive things that actually have merit.

"To tha m00n" doesn't mean much without a citation.

Anyone got a pick-me-up? And a source?

I will answer your question.

For Bitcoin to go parabolic once again, it is going to require some kind of capital flight. That is Bitcoins real practical advantage over conventional finance. A means of circumventing a nations fiscal controls. This could happen at anytime. It has happened before in that April 2013 was attributed to capital flight from Cyprus and Dec 2013 was attributed largely to Chinese investors piling into Bitcoin in order as a means of circumventing their own countries capital controls. This is why the PBOC has given Bitcoin a bit of a disapproving frown and we have been in a bear market ever since.

Without a surge in capital flight interest, Bitcoin will trend back to where it would have been had China never entered the market to begin with, give or take a few hundred K's worth of stolen, seized, or court appropriated BTC or so. However, it is not as simple as that. People outside of Bitcoin view it has horribly over valued and dangerously volatile at the moment. People within Bitcoin however have greatly inflated sense of price expectations that are not possible under present conditions, but these inflated expectations help facilitate some tremendously rapid pump n dump efforts. Vast sums of money gladly piled into Bitcoin at $750, $540, $400, and sub $400. Recent counter trend recovery's have shown a figure well short of $750, and then just around bang on $540 to now be sums where buying pressure in Bitcoin completely dries up. I am in no doubt that we will be able to add $400 to that list of important resistance points soon enough. Without some new and significant avenue of interest in Bitcoin, this patter of grinding bear market, dump, pump, dump and then yet more grinding bear market is set to continue until either Bitcoin gets so depressed that the pump n dump mechanics of the current market yields diminishing returns to the point of it just not being that worthwhile anymore; or until some X-Factor kicks in and the most likely X-Factor for me will be some kind of emergency capital flight out of a crisis stricken nation.

The increased adoption that people talk about for everyday legal purchases will take a very long time to gain traction, far longer than any Bitcoiner's patience can endure. This isn't like Facebook that entered onto the scene with practically no meaningful competition. The fiat currencies already have the 'medium of exchange' market well and truly tied up and are frankly much safer, easier, and more convenient to use for 99% of everyday purchases.

In summation, for Bitcoin to go on another bull-run, the demand has got to come-in and overturn the churning of the present manipulated pump n dump forces of the present overvalued and declining market. The only conceivable avenue of such interest at this point in time is capital flight. Therefore, if ya are all praying to get another Bitcoin bull-run anytime soon, then ya are all praying for economic collapse, misery, and suffering, in some non US hegemony compliant economy that is getting beaten with some geo-political stick.

Depressing and likely accurate.