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Cryptoman (OP)
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April 13, 2011, 07:18:33 PM |
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It seems we've had a sudden increase in network hashing power. Mystery miner returns or people reacting to the rise in value of Bitcoins?
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"A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history." --Gandhi
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Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
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MoonShadow
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April 13, 2011, 08:04:40 PM |
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It seems we've had a sudden increase in network hashing power. Mystery miner returns or people reacting to the rise in value of Bitcoins?
There is no way to know. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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theGECK
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April 14, 2011, 12:28:33 AM |
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Probably both. If I remember right, MM popped up at this price point last time too. So, it is probably some network/company that is only worth mining when the price hits a specific level. That's my theory, at least, that MM is a botnet that requires a certain price point to cover the rent.
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ryepdx
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April 14, 2011, 11:10:28 PM |
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You know what's interesting? If the Mystery Miner commands a large enough share of the network, they could feasibly drive up the price of bitcoins by holding on to all the bitcoins they mine instead of selling them on the open market. If a sizable share of all the network's bitcoins are going to them, they effectively reduce the overall supply and (potentially) turn people who would have been producers of bitcoins into consumers. This would also increase demand.
Then, once they have a decent amount mined and the price has gone up sufficiently, they could sell them all in a dark pool for a handsome profit. Prices would then plummet, of course.
Btw, anyone know where that 30,000 BTC sell-off from last week came from?
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marcus_of_augustus
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April 14, 2011, 11:17:48 PM |
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It needn't be any extra mining but just a lucky streak by the mining network that jacks up calculated hash rates over an extended period.
Deepbit.net had an epic day on April 13, solving ~80% more blocks than it normally does ... so for that day the pool's has rate power comes out higher. Similar episodes are likely to occur for the whole network.
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TiagoTiago
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April 14, 2011, 11:19:35 PM |
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Kinda scary to think there is a single person or group with so much power over the Bitcoin economy...
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MoonShadow
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April 14, 2011, 11:49:34 PM |
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Kinda scary to think there is a single person or group with so much power over the Bitcoin economy...
It is only an assumption that the "mystery miner" is a single person or group. That's is actually unlikely. More likely is that what we attribute to intentional action is a statistical outlier, and not any specific event. Even if it is an event, there may be a trigger causing many different users to jump in at the same time, creating the illusion of a single powerful group. Perhaps more than one person has already hacked the mining code to track the price/difficulty ratio, and only burn clock cycles if the ratio is above a certain value. I'm not a coder, but compared to the complexity of the miners themselves, hacking the client to cycle generation on and off based on a simple calculation should be trivial. I just wish whoever has done it would release their code. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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LZ
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April 15, 2011, 12:02:56 AM |
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Deepbit.net had an epic day on April 13, solving ~80% more blocks than it normally does That was my birthday...  |
My OpenPGP fingerprint: 5099EB8C0F2E68C63B4ECBB9A9D0993E04143362
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slush
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April 15, 2011, 12:31:44 AM |
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It is only an assumption that the "mystery miner" is a single person or group. That's is actually unlikely.
Mystery miner was single person and his wallet is tracked already. Please search #bitcoin-dev logs for "MM" or "Mistery Miner". |
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MoonShadow
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April 15, 2011, 12:40:21 AM |
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It is only an assumption that the "mystery miner" is a single person or group. That's is actually unlikely.
Mystery miner was single person and his wallet is tracked already. Please search #bitcoin-dev logs for "MM" or "Mistery Miner". I don't have access to IRC at work, care to share? |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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fabianhjr
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April 15, 2011, 02:45:35 AM |
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marcus_of_augustus
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April 15, 2011, 02:53:19 AM |
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Interesting, mystery miner is a single entity/machine. Probably a commercial or academic cluster or supercomputer then. Wonder what incentivises them to be on/off the bitcoin network? (Besides having spare cycles).
Could be electricity cost, when bitcoin gets economic they crank it up. Certainly puts some punch behind the security of the network having something like that lurking out there ... how many more mystery miners might potentially come out of the woodwork when the price is right?
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slush
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April 15, 2011, 03:03:08 AM |
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Interesting, mystery miner is a single entity/machine. Probably a commercial or academic cluster or supercomputer then. Wonder what incentivises them to be on/off the bitcoin network? (Besides having spare cycles).
There are more arguments to think that MM was botnet. One of them is that MM shut it down after few days. 50k BTC is pretty nice result and every day of botnet operation is bigger risk of troubles... |
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Jim Hyslop
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April 15, 2011, 04:08:44 AM |
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Probably is. Just dig into each of the input transactions, and you'll see that most of them are older, some of them going back to January. Just someone consolidating all their bitcoins into a single address, I think. |
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Jim Hyslop
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April 15, 2011, 04:11:04 AM |
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It seems we've had a sudden increase in network hashing power. Mystery miner returns or people reacting to the rise in value of Bitcoins?
I wouldn't call it sudden. I've been graphing it since the last difficulty change, and it's been a gradual but steady increase. At this point, we seem to be averaging about 600GHash/sec. Which, incidentally, is putting us on course for another decrease of the target. |
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j16sdiz
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April 15, 2011, 04:15:12 AM |
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Interesting, mystery miner is a single entity/machine. Probably a commercial or academic cluster or supercomputer then. Wonder what incentivises them to be on/off the bitcoin network? (Besides having spare cycles).
There are more arguments to think that MM was botnet. One of them is that MM shut it down after few days. 50k BTC is pretty nice result and every day of botnet operation is bigger risk of troubles... I can't imagine what kind of damage a botnet can do |
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xf2_org
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April 15, 2011, 04:30:09 AM |
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I can't imagine what kind of damage a botnet can do
It seems likely that most botnet machines would be lower-powered, without capable GPU. So, you'd need a really, really big CPU mining botnet basically... |
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allinvain
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April 15, 2011, 10:25:43 PM |
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I can't imagine what kind of damage a botnet can do
It seems likely that most botnet machines would be lower-powered, without capable GPU. So, you'd need a really, really big CPU mining botnet basically... But what if the botnet intrustion code was smart enough to search for a suitable GPU (it would not care about mining efficiency so it would go for both ATI and AMD)!! Imagine the hashing power such a botnet could achieve. Imagine all those poor games who are left scratching their head wondering why their system lags and why temps spike "myseriously"...  |
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