Is the West gearing up to invade Russia once again?

[Nemo1024]

A few days ago I watched a 2-year old Russian documentary, commemorating the 200th anniversary of the war of 1812, about the information war, waged before and during the French invasion of Russia in 1812. The Film is called "The War of 1812. The First information War" and can be watched here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyeGXPJc4ms (it's even passably watcheable with automatic English captions)

The film revolves around the report by Polish General Michal Sokolnitsky that was presented to Napoleon on the 10th of February 1812 and discovered in French military archives in 1996. The report details how Napoleon should proceed conquering and dividing Russia, how to use locals. The plans for compartmentalisation of Russia were well-defined. South-Western Russia (including Crimea), would become French state of Napoleonida, with Poland expanded South and several French or Polish-governed counties created as buffers (https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=vyeGXPJc4ms#t=457). Napoleon went along with the plans, with the slight alteration - he intended to rally Poles and use them as the frontal strike force, commonly known as cannon Fodder.

What struck me the most was the bit that said that Napoleon should ensure setting Ukraine and Russia head to head against each other, and should bribe Don Cossacks, as they hate Russians. Napoleon discovered belatedly that this was not the case.

Napoleon, prior to the military campaign, ran a massive information/propaganda war in Europe, centralising control of most of the newspapers in his hands, and portraying Russia as someone on the verge of conquering the whole Europe, so it was only right for him, Napoleon, to strike pre-emptively first. At the same time, and to that end, he invented the fake Testament of Peter the Great (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Russavia/Testament). This "testament" was subsequently used prior to invasion of Russia in WWI and WWII.

I am seeing similar patterns now: An uprising of Russophobic press in Western mass media, depicting Russia as an aggressor, poised to take over the Europe. When passing through Great Britain the other week, I saw a cover of one of the magazines, showing a stylized map of Russia as a red bear with gaping maw, swallowing Ukraine, and the big captions title "INSATIABLE!". Next will come (or already coming) calls to isolate, sanction and pre-emptively strike Russia, "for the good of Europe".

Here is a report on that "Insatiable" cover: http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/mikeshedlock/2014/04/21/insatiable-idiocy-from-the-economist-on-what-to-do-about-russia-n1826834

Before 1941 there were also "worried" calls that Soviet Union has too many troops on its Western borders, and that it should pull back. This time, it seems Putin is not as stupid as Stalin was. At the same time NATO pulls its military closer to Russia, relocating more and more troops to its old and newly conquered bases in Baltics, Poland, Yugoslavia (Black Sea), and Georgia.

It feels like a great war is in the air and NATO is pushing hard for a trigger, seemingly having slated Ukraine to play such role. This would explain why NATO consequently ignores Russia's calls for de-escalation of the tension in Ukraine and demands that US brings their puppets in Kiev to heel.

If I start seeing mentions of the Testament of Peter the Great in the Western media, then I will know for sure that war is only a few months or weeks away...


Came across an interesting article to this effect (it seems to be Google-translated from Polish):

Cancelled … Napoleonida of Donetsk Oblast and Crimea
http://survincity.com/2013/05/cancelled-napoleonida-of-donetsk-oblast-and-crimea/




More of my musings from a Russian perspective in a post further down:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=584031.msg6891605#msg6891605


The years before the Crimean War of 1854 saw some of the same russophobic propaganda as we see today. Read more in the post here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=584031.msg7153658#msg7153658


I have written an extended blog post, based on this thread:
http://stanislavs.org/is-the-west-gearing-up-to-invade-russia-once-again/

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[bryant.coleman]

None of the nuclear powers can be invaded. Intervening in Ukraine is one thing and invading Russia is another. If the UK and US send their troops to Ukraine, it will not necessarily start the WW3. On the other hand, if they send their troops to invade Russia, it will definitely signal the start of WW3 and MAD. Russia will definitely use some of its 10,000 nuclear war heads and half the world will turn to radio-active waste land.

[practicaldreamer]

If the UK and US send their troops to Ukraine,

I can't personally see the UK government getting a mandate from the British people to do that, much the same as the plans to invade Syria were scuppered.
    Fund the illegitimate Ukraine Govt ? Yes. Provide arms ? Yes. Send in private security firms ? Yes.   All these measures in themselves are illegitimate in my eyes - but there are precedents for this kind intervention.

  Unfortunately the UK Government could, if they wished, send in the troops via what is known as the "Royal prerogative" even without the go ahead from Parliament - they most recently did it with Libya. Wholly undemocratic - but again not unprecedented. I can't honestly see them using the Royal prerogative over the Ukraine though.

   The US is a different question though. Does the US public have an appetite for yet another overseas war, fought in the name of freedom and democracy ?

[deisik]

The US is a different question though. Does the US public have an appetite for yet another overseas war, fought in the name of freedom and democracy ?

When they have nothing to eat (read no more stripping the whole world of its wealth), there's no doubt they will have an appetite. Though this won't be for the sake of freedom and democracy as it is not presently, lol...

[NationOwnedCCNow]

They have been trying really hard to get the People of the west on their side, but so far failed. They need a false-flag or a really dumb move by RUssia. And I don't think Russia will make a dumb move so what's left is a ff.

[practicaldreamer]

I am seeing similar patterns now: An uprising of Russophobic press in Western mass media, depicting Russia as an aggressor, poised to take over the Europe. When passing through Great Britain the other week, I saw a cover of one of the magazines, showing a stylized map of Russia as a red bear with gaping maw, swallowing Ukraine, and the big captions title "INSATIABLE!". Next will come (or already coming) calls to isolate, sanction and pre-emptively strike Russia, "for the good of Europe".

I'll tell you what I noticed as well - whenever the BBC (and no doubt the commercial channels as well) show a map of Russia/Ukraine/Crimea they always have Russian territory shaded one colour and the Ukraine shaded another - and Crimea is always shaded the same colour as Ukraine and not Russia  
    Crimea should actually be the same colour as Russian territory surely ?

I don't think Russia will make a dumb move so what's left is a ff.

Yes - you are probably right. Something like,for example, drug addicted paedophile Russian sympathisers in the East of Ukraine have been caught eating the flesh of Panda bear cubs  

[Nemo1024]

Just read fresh news, which are more related to this topic, than to the topic of Ukraine, so posting here:

Chief of the General Staff of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov and US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey had a telephone conversation today. During it Gerasimov told Dempsey about substantial number of Ukrainian troops, including light motorised troops concentrated near the Russian borders. He also expressed concerns about NATO's increase of the number of troops in Baltics, Poland and of the ships in the Black Sea. He informed Americans about Russia's start of training manoeuvres.

It remains unknown what Dempsey replied, but shortly after the conversation, it turned out that "if necessary" US will supply Ukraine with firearms. Previously US said that they will only supply non-lethal aid.

http://www.newsru.com/russia/25apr2014/gerasimov.html

[Lethn]

You're certainly not wrong about the west, they want dominance, same as Russia and China, just don't forget that they all want the same thing and soon land is going to become a more scarce commodity than oil, I do find it annoying that the people in the EU as well as America keep talking about how much they want a diplomatic solution but really they just want what benefits them so they're going to keep messing with Russia until one of them backs down.

Old analogy I know but they really are poking the bear right now and sooner or later he's just going to get annoyed and take their head off.

[bryant.coleman]

Unfortunately the UK Government could, if they wished, send in the troops via what is known as the "Royal prerogative" even without the go ahead from Parliament - they most recently did it with Libya. Wholly undemocratic - but again not unprecedented. I can't honestly see them using the Royal prerogative over the Ukraine though.

The UK politicians will send their troops if the Americans do so. For the past two decades or so, the British are just acting like the servants of the Americans. They seems to be not having an independent voice in decision making.

[practicaldreamer]

Unfortunately the UK Government could, if they wished, send in the troops via what is known as the "Royal prerogative" even without the go ahead from Parliament - they most recently did it with Libya. Wholly undemocratic - but again not unprecedented. I can't honestly see them using the Royal prerogative over the Ukraine though.

The UK politicians will send their troops if the Americans do so. For the past two decades or so, the British are just acting like the servants of the Americans. They seems to be not having an independent voice in decision making.

Completely agree that this has been the case historically bryant. But I do sense a subtle shift taking place. I've a feeling the UK may not be quite as ready, in the years to come, to be the US's poodle to quite the same extent as it has in the past.
   This may be something to do with the UK's energy security and its reliance on Russian coal and gas  

[Lethn]

Unfortunately that's more of a case of the parliament, like with the American government, parliament and the people are separate entities, in fact there's a long running theme here even more so in the UK of how completely detached the UK politicians are from reality.

[bryant.coleman]

This may be something to do with the UK's energy security and its reliance on Russian coal and gas  

Unlike most of the European nations (Poland for example), the UK is not overly dependent on Russia for gas. They can import spare gas from Libya or Algeria as well... albeit at slightly higher prices.

[tinus42]

Unfortunately the UK Government could, if they wished, send in the troops via what is known as the "Royal prerogative" even without the go ahead from Parliament - they most recently did it with Libya. Wholly undemocratic - but again not unprecedented. I can't honestly see them using the Royal prerogative over the Ukraine though.

The UK politicians will send their troops if the Americans do so. For the past two decades or so, the British are just acting like the servants of the Americans. They seems to be not having an independent voice in decision making.

The only country that is more subservient to the US is the Netherlands. We will jump through every hoop that Obama holds in front of us. Fortunately we don't matter too much internationally.

[bryant.coleman]

The only country that is more subservient to the US is the Netherlands. We will jump through every hoop that Obama holds in front of us. Fortunately we don't matter too much internationally.

The Netherlands is not a nuclear power, while the UK possesses hundreds of nuclear weapons. That is a big difference. As far as the strength of the armed forces are considered, I think the British and the Dutch are almost equal in the numbers.

[Machinery]

Yea, we are going to invade a country that has nukes. Best logic in the world.

[deisik]

Yea, we are going to invade a country that has nukes. Best logic in the world.

In today's world invasion takes many faces, and some of them can't possibly be smashed with nukes (but this seems to be completely off-topic in this thread)...

[bryant.coleman]

Yea, we are going to invade a country that has nukes. Best logic in the world.

May not be a full scale invasion. But a proxy war is quite possible. Perhaps the Americans can arm the Chechens and other Muslim groups, just like what they did in Afghanistan during the 1980s.

[Fatpony]

If they do they will be meet with the same fate as many other invaders, like Napoleon or Hitler...

[bryant.coleman]

If they do they will be meet with the same fate as many other invaders, like Napoleon or Hitler...

At that time there were no nuclear weapons. Unfortunately that is not the case now. More than half of the human population might be exterminated, if the WW3 actually occurs due to any fight between the USA and Russia.

[Nemo1024]

Yes, I think a war-by-proxy is rather likely. It's been the US's favourite type of warfare, with only a few exceptions.

By the way, currently a few US soldiers were sent to Lithuania to hold hands of Lithuanian soldiers so as to "reassure" them. At least that is how I interpret the move.  

US soldiers arrive in Lithuania to ‘reassure’ NATO allies amid Ukrainian crisis
http://rt.com/news/155068-us-troops-lithuania-drills/

The Lithuanian government welcomed the arrival of 150 troops at the Lithuanian Air Force Aviation Base in Siauliai on Saturday, reported Reuters. Referring to the escalating tensions in Ukraine, President Dalia Grybauskaite said “we know in this situation who our real friends are coming to help."

"If any of our guests are injured, it would mean an open confrontation not with Lithuania but with the United States," she added. The group of troops is part of a larger contingent of 600 troops that have been deployed throughout Eastern Europe to reassure NATO allies. Another company of soldiers arrived in Poland on Wednesday and in Latvia on Friday. Troops are also expected to arrive in Estonia on Monday.

I hope none of them fall and scratch their knees or Lithuanian asphalt will be treated as the enemy of the United States, and that will be embarrassing.