$10,000 within 3 years?

[hello_good_sir]

2014: fairly stable at $400-500
2015: peak at $4000
2016: fairly stable around $3000
2017: peak near $20000
2018: stable above $5000

[1715454490]

1715454490

[1715454490]

1715454490

[Sindelar1938]

80%

[gagalady]

Could happen this year. If not, the next one certainly.

No way It happens this year, 3 years.. sounds something like It. This year like $1.5-2k Max I'd say. 

[anu]

If I was as certain as you 2 are, I'd stock up on a lot more

You need to be only somewhat more than 5% certain to stock up a lot (more?). Unless you believe that it is in fact the $ that is losing 95%.

[pinksheep]

not sure what exactly you mean by that?

[Minnlo]

Just passing the time while waiting on some bitcoin movement  In percentage terms, what do you think the probability is of BTC hitting $10K in the next 3 years?

I would say a 20% chance for hitting 10K in 3 years.

[rebel24]

Bitcoins tredline is a growth of about 10x every year. 3 years then would have the price increase 1000x (if it continues on the trendline). Now I personally think that when it gets to high prices the growth will slow, but $10,000 is not that high (a capital injection of even a few billion dollars could spur a new bubble and send us there w/ ease), but after $10,000-20,000 or so I could see growth slowing

$10,000 in the next 3 years? VERY VERY FUCKING LIKELY (statistically, easily over 95%)

[beetcoin]

graphs don't factor the unforeseen events that may or may not occur. and as we all know, balls come out of left field aplenty. there are still too many issues that need to be resolved for me to have a 90%+ confidence in it happening.

[rebel24]

graphs don't factor the unforeseen events that may or may not occur. and as we all know, balls come out of left field aplenty. there are still too many issues that need to be resolved for me to have a 90%+ confidence in it happening.

yes that is the same inherent risk in any investment (even the most seemingly secure ones)

[ravenjt]

If you believe that there is a 20% chance or more of Bitcoin being worth $10,000 within three years time, then I recommend that you sell everything you own, including your house, and put all of the money into Bitcoin, right now.
The current price is about $500, so $10,000 represents a 20 fold increase. If you think you have a one in five (20%) chance of achieving that (and let's say the only other outcome is Bitcoin = zero), then your expected profit is at least five-fold, over three years. That is an annualised (probability weighted) performance of 82%.

Losing all of your assets would be bad, but you can always rebuild. But missing out on an annualised, prob weighted performance of over 82% is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity.
This is not time to think about 'what you can afford to lose'. You can afford to lose everything, you can always beg on the street. But you cannot afford to miss this.

Personally, I do not believe that the chance is 20%. I think the chance is only about 0.1%. Bitcoin of $10,000 creates too much incentive for someone to come up with an alternative, superior, cryptocurrency that is better able to assist international transactions.

[bitcoinsrus]

If you believe that there is a 20% chance or more of Bitcoin being worth $10,000 within three years time, then I recommend that you sell everything you own, including your house, and put all of the money into Bitcoin, right now.
The current price is about $500, so $10,000 represents a 20 fold increase. If you think you have a one in five (20%) chance of achieving that (and let's say the only other outcome is Bitcoin = zero), then your expected profit is at least five-fold, over three years. That is an annualised (probability weighted) performance of 82%.

Losing all of your assets would be bad, but you can always rebuild. But missing out on an annualised, prob weighted performance of over 82% is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity.
This is not time to think about 'what you can afford to lose'. You can afford to lose everything, you can always beg on the street. But you cannot afford to miss this.

Personally, I do not believe that the chance is 20%. I think the chance is only about 0.1%. Bitcoin of $10,000 creates too much incentive for someone to come up with an alternative, superior, cryptocurrency that is better able to assist international transactions.

I believe even at 500, people are trying to come up with new cryptos (facebucks, ethereum maidsafe etc). Bitcoin is 6 billion (market cap).  The strongest network (computational power) and has a somewhat developed infrastructure. 
For a new crypto to overtake, it needs to take a few years to develop (or perhaps its in the making like if its dogecoin or something (LOL @dogecoin overtaking btc  )

A new crypto may come, but I think it would take time and resouces to overtake (unless immediate flaw in btc protocol or a team of superior devs only go into another alt)

[wachtwoord]

If you believe that there is a 20% chance or more of Bitcoin being worth $10,000 within three years time, then I recommend that you sell everything you own, including your house, and put all of the money into Bitcoin, right now.
The current price is about $500, so $10,000 represents a 20 fold increase. If you think you have a one in five (20%) chance of achieving that (and let's say the only other outcome is Bitcoin = zero), then your expected profit is at least five-fold, over three years. That is an annualised (probability weighted) performance of 82%.

Losing all of your assets would be bad, but you can always rebuild. But missing out on an annualised, prob weighted performance of over 82% is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity.
This is not time to think about 'what you can afford to lose'. You can afford to lose everything, you can always beg on the street. But you cannot afford to miss this.

Personally, I do not believe that the chance is 20%. I think the chance is only about 0.1%. Bitcoin of $10,000 creates too much incentive for someone to come up with an alternative, superior, cryptocurrency that is better able to assist international transactions.

I believe even at 500, people are trying to come up with new cryptos (facebucks, ethereum maidsafe etc). Bitcoin is 6 billion (market cap).  The strongest network (computational power) and has a somewhat developed infrastructure. 
For a new crypto to overtake, it needs to take a few years to develop (or perhaps its in the making like if its dogecoin or something (LOL @dogecoin overtaking btc  )

A new crypto may come, but I think it would take time and resouces to overtake (unless immediate flaw in btc protocol or a team of superior devs only go into another alt)

Yes there certainly is incentive. There's also incentive to realize energy efficient cold fusion, a Dyson sphere  and perpetuum mobile devices but none of these have been realized. You know why? Because it's very difficult (the first 2) or outright impossible (the latter). Economical incentive is not all that stands between something being realized or not.

[Dabs]

I have a perpetual motion device but it is not for sale. The output is also very small, otherwise I'd use it to power my bitcoin miners.

[zakalwe]

Bitcoins tredline is a growth of about 10x every year. 3 years then would have the price increase 1000x (if it continues on the trendline). Now I personally think that when it gets to high prices the growth will slow, but $10,000 is not that high (a capital injection of even a few billion dollars could spur a new bubble and send us there w/ ease), but after $10,000-20,000 or so I could see growth slowing

$10,000 in the next 3 years? VERY VERY FUCKING LIKELY (statistically, easily over 95%)

+1

[farl4web]

If you believe that there is a 20% chance or more of Bitcoin being worth $10,000 within three years time, then I recommend that you sell everything you own, including your house, and put all of the money into Bitcoin, right now.
The current price is about $500, so $10,000 represents a 20 fold increase. If you think you have a one in five (20%) chance of achieving that (and let's say the only other outcome is Bitcoin = zero), then your expected profit is at least five-fold, over three years. That is an annualised (probability weighted) performance of 82%.

Losing all of your assets would be bad, but you can always rebuild. But missing out on an annualised, prob weighted performance of over 82% is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity.
This is not time to think about 'what you can afford to lose'. You can afford to lose everything, you can always beg on the street. But you cannot afford to miss this.

Personally, I do not believe that the chance is 20%. I think the chance is only about 0.1%. Bitcoin of $10,000 creates too much incentive for someone to come up with an alternative, superior, cryptocurrency that is better able to assist international transactions.

I believe even at 500, people are trying to come up with new cryptos (facebucks, ethereum maidsafe etc). Bitcoin is 6 billion (market cap).  The strongest network (computational power) and has a somewhat developed infrastructure. 
For a new crypto to overtake, it needs to take a few years to develop (or perhaps its in the making like if its dogecoin or something (LOL @dogecoin overtaking btc  )

A new crypto may come, but I think it would take time and resouces to overtake (unless immediate flaw in btc protocol or a team of superior devs only go into another alt)

Nxt is building and developing like hell right now. We don't see this much development in Bitcoin right now. Today Nxt is at v1.0.0.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=587007.0

[spazzdla]

If you believe that there is a 20% chance or more of Bitcoin being worth $10,000 within three years time, then I recommend that you sell everything you own, including your house, and put all of the money into Bitcoin, right now.
The current price is about $500, so $10,000 represents a 20 fold increase. If you think you have a one in five (20%) chance of achieving that (and let's say the only other outcome is Bitcoin = zero), then your expected profit is at least five-fold, over three years. That is an annualised (probability weighted) performance of 82%.

Losing all of your assets would be bad, but you can always rebuild. But missing out on an annualised, prob weighted performance of over 82% is a once-in-a-life-time opportunity.
This is not time to think about 'what you can afford to lose'. You can afford to lose everything, you can always beg on the street. But you cannot afford to miss this.

Personally, I do not believe that the chance is 20%. I think the chance is only about 0.1%. Bitcoin of $10,000 creates too much incentive for someone to come up with an alternative, superior, cryptocurrency that is better able to assist international transactions.

Put all of my wealth into a 20% chance.. AMAZING advice just amazing.....................

All of my no.

[Asrael999]

Since the price is currently $440 this represents a 22.72 x return over 3 years or approx. 283% per annum.
This tells me the market thinks there is a very very small chance of this event occurring - if it was probable the price would be a lot higher already.

[NationOwnedCCNow]

Since the price is currently $440 this represents a 22.72 x return over 3 years or approx. 283% per annum.
This tells me the market thinks there is a very very small chance of this event occurring - if it was probable the price would be a lot higher already.

I think not.

Next rise is just around the corner, and it will hit 5k or more.

[PhoneBloks]

Just passing the time while waiting on some bitcoin movement  In percentage terms, what do you think the probability is of BTC hitting $10K in the next 3 years?

All btc need is fiat investments (usd, eur, cny)

To be interested in fiat investments btc has to be stable, and secure and accepted by merchants ... nothing more nothing less, when those 3 basic criterias will be met, btc may go up

And if btc will be supported by governments, then price will go up more

[durrrr]

And this is the problem with most people in Bitcoin. They don't see it from what it was designed to do - become the primary payment system used around the world. Instead we compare it to fiat as a measure of its value and become hyped up about it as the price increases. Basically it means systemically people are focused on making a quick buck rather than actually seeing this as a means of moving forward.

I think that this is one of the things that hurts bitcoin the most. untill people stop using bitcoin as an investment and more as a currency. i diont think we will see 10,000 eiter. to be honest im suprised we seen 1000 too but everyday it is becomming more used.