$10,000 within 3 years?

[pinksheep]

Just passing the time while waiting on some bitcoin movement  In percentage terms, what do you think the probability is of BTC hitting $10K in the next 3 years?

[Kupsi]

95%

[jamesc760]

99.98%

[pinksheep]

If I was as certain as you 2 are, I'd stock up on a lot more

[andrewhaas]

Same chance it'll have at going back to 1 dollar.

[nerFohanzo]

about 20%

3 years is not much, and I doubt it can go so high with pure speculation. I mean it must be super easy to convert to BTC (like at every ATM) or much more people need to get paid in BTC.

[Ibian]

Could happen this year. If not, the next one certainly.

[redhawk979]

Sure why not? Lets just pick more arbitrary numbers.

$29,384 this year? Yes 99% chance

$68,294,237 in 5 years? Yes 99% chance cause "fiat lol".

[wachtwoord]

"fiat lol".

Fiat lol indeed.

[kooke]

It's impossible to predict whether we'll hit $10k in the next three years or not. One major event could trigger mass buying or selling and drive the price with a lot of force in either direction. One thing I've noticed with btc is that when it goes up in value, it explodes upwards in a very short amount of time.

[pinksheep]

I have the feeling IF it does hit $10K, then that's a sign it is being widely accepted & the price won't stop there. It probably is an all or nothing game, as many others have said.

[kooke]

I have the feeling IF it does hit $10K, then that's a sign it is being widely accepted & the price won't stop there. It probably is an all or nothing game, as many others have said.

Even at the nothing level, I still think btc would retain value as a niche system.

[pinksheep]

so what's the lowest you think it could go in such a scenario?

[Light]

And this is the problem with most people in Bitcoin. They don't see it from what it was designed to do - become the primary payment system used around the world. Instead we compare it to fiat as a measure of its value and become hyped up about it as the price increases. Basically it means systemically people are focused on making a quick buck rather than actually seeing this as a means of moving forward.

[pinksheep]

Surely the 2 go together  -  if it becomes the primary payment method around the world, those who invested will profit.

[Ibian]

And this is the problem with most people in Bitcoin. They don't see it from what it was designed to do - become the primary payment system used around the world. Instead we compare it to fiat as a measure of its value and become hyped up about it as the price increases. Basically it means systemically people are focused on making a quick buck rather than actually seeing this as a means of moving forward.

One does not exclude the other. The fact of the matter is that the law of supply and demand is absolute.

[wachtwoord]

And this is the problem with most people in Bitcoin. They don't see it from what it was designed to do - become the primary payment system used around the world. Instead we compare it to fiat as a measure of its value and become hyped up about it as the price increases. Basically it means systemically people are focused on making a quick buck rather than actually seeing this as a means of moving forward.

No the current fiat is a valid way to represent the future purchasing power a Bitcoin will offer it's owner.

[Alley]

I think we will see a decent spike when the block reward halves.

[kireinaha]

based strictly on the trend line, bitcoin should reach $10,000 USD by the first half of 2015. I think it will happen.

[Cluster2k]

There are been countless graphs posted to this forum regarding the price of bitcoin going to $10k within 2 years, and possible $100k and beyond within 3 or 4.  With so many graphs published and so many people believing it will happen I cannot see it not happening now.  I'll be buying all the houses on my street with a single bitcoin by 2020.