Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis

[Arghhh]

DanV: Former Qualified Financial Adviser. Part-Time Forex, Equities & Option Trader and Mentor.



https://www.tradingview.com/u/DanV/

"This pattern could have a final leg down, which would very likely induce overwhelming emotions of despair as it sinks to the ~$200 level.

Again, the $200 zone is AB=CD measured move target and another Fib confluence. As you all know, I am relatively cautious and, hence, $200 would be good enough for me. However, EW guidelines suggest that upon completion of a bullish cycle, the retracement takes us back to the vicinity of wave 4 (at one cycle degree lower). That, in fact, is in the area of $120!

Now, I know this might be very annoying and incomprehensible to Bulls, and others who follow "Fundamentals" very keenly. I cannot say right now which of these targets will be achieved, but it is sufficient to note that, irrespective of if we reverse at $600 (or even $800), we are in a bearish cycle, and a move of the low does not support a new Bullish cycle." -DanV

Another institutional analyst falls victim to the bitcoin badger.
Anyone who listened to DanV, got burnt. Badly.

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[chessnut]

The guy is not a bad EW analyst, but he is a slave to some trivial rules. if you know EW analysis, he has chosen the most complex interpretation of this chart, it hardly makes sense at all. there is a much simpler explanation to all this, and it's very bullish.

Truth is though, this could be a B wave within a much larger ABC correction (less likely than the beginning of V to 4000), but he labels the top of this to 600? rubbish analysis. The likely top in this situation is more like 800.

Dont take an EW analyst for 100% certain no matter how 'qualified'. EW analysts have very detailed expectations, which means we can enter and exit the market seamlessly and mechanically, however just like everyone else we cannot tell the future for sure.

[Arghhh]

The guy is not a bad EW analyst, but he is a slave to some trivial rules. if you know EW analysis, he has chosen the most complex interpretation of this chart, it hardly makes sense at all. there is a much simpler explanation to all this, and it's very bullish.

Truth is though, this could be a B wave within a much larger ABC correction (less likely than the beginning of V to 4000), but he labels the top of this to 600? rubbish analysis. The likely top in this situation is more like 800.

The real rubbish analysis is actually him even mentioning $200 and $120... just three days ago. The guy has trading experience, but his bitcoin fundamentals is absolute garbage.

He's just one of the dime-dozen institution investors who comes up with these crackpot predictions, only to be fooled by the bitcoin badger. The problem with most institution predictors, is that they're too confident in their analysis, without stopping to think that bitcoin doesn't play by their abc rules... never before has a stock been a currency, a payment system, and a limited commodity at the same time.

Remember that in October 2013, he called for long-term downtrend to $60.

Needless to say, anyone who listened to him then, probably needs to step outside from a 22nd story building.

[blatchcorn]

For everyone who wants a simple analysis:


It is clear we are now in a bull market.  The days of $400 bitcoin are over

[JimboToronto]

He's just one of the dime-dozen institution investors who comes up with these crackpot predictions, only to be fooled by the bitcoin badger. The problem with most institution predictors, is that they're too confident in their analysis, without stopping to think that bitcoin doesn't play by their abc rules

Post of the day.

[blatchcorn]

Another no-bullshit chart:

[Arghhh]

Your chart is wrong because there shouldn't be stars inside of the moon crescent. 

[prophetx]

good job OP

[TeeBone]

He's just one of the dime-dozen institution investors who comes up with these crackpot predictions, only to be fooled by the bitcoin badger. The problem with most institution predictors, is that they're too confident in their analysis, without stopping to think that bitcoin doesn't play by their abc rules

Post of the day.

2 cult trolls feeling awfully stoopid.

[homo homini lupus]

good job OP

good bump, bumper 

[MatTheCat]

Why are people still questioning this? The price goes up in huge jumps. Minor changes between those jumps are meaningless in the bigger picture. For permabears to be taken seriously they would first have to explain why "this time it's different" without appearing to be blatantly trolling. And they can't do that.

This time it was different. You can't argue with that now and it is probably going to get even more different as Bitcoin has actually overshot DanV's most dire forecasts.

[tadakaluri]

When will this bearish trend over?

[DecentralizeEconomics]

Bitcoin has actually overshot DanV's most dire forecasts.

The price can temporarily overshoot the resistance / support levels in TA and the forecast can still be considered accurate as long as the price quickly comes back to the resistance / support level.  Imo, the temporary low of $150 doesn't invalidate the ~$200 support level.