Interesting times ahead for next 4-8 weeks

[wachtwoord]

The $100s won't happen.  I am neither lying nor deluded.

However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.

Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.

ftfy

Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.

[r34tr783tr78]

If the price went slowly to 100 usds, currently holders would be in panick, I doubt many would have the guts to buy more. Now, 100 looks so cheap. But 430 was like a mirage when the price was at 1150. Different times, different perspectives.

[oda.krell]

The $100s won't happen.  I am neither lying nor deluded.

However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.

Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.

ftfy

Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.

Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.

[wachtwoord]

The $100s won't happen.  I am neither lying nor deluded.

However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.

Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.

ftfy

Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.

Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.

You must agree it's very likely though. The gamble is likely to have a positive expected value (doesn't mean you should do it, I'm not).

[oda.krell]

The $100s won't happen.  I am neither lying nor deluded.

However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.

Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.

ftfy

Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.

Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.

You must agree it's very likely though. The gamble is likely to have a positive expected value (doesn't mean you should do it, I'm not).

I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:

a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.

b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).

[yenom]

a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.

Just for you yoda krell. May I call you yoda? I'm just doing this for fun, I have not the remotest clue what will happen.

[yenom]

Looks like my prediction for a quiet couple of weeks was correct. Now what? Will we keep going sideways until the price hits the dotted line and turn down, or shoot up? Or just keep dribbling sideways?

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Nice predictions, its gonna spike down, not enough support from average Joes, thats it.

[BitchicksHusband]

The $100s won't happen.  I am neither lying nor deluded.

However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.

Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.

ftfy

Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.

Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.

0% interest rate for 28 months was the last offer I got.  I'm pretty sure bitcoin would get back to $200 in 28 months.

[BitchicksHusband]

The $100s won't happen.  I am neither lying nor deluded.

However, if by some miracle the $100s DID happen, I would take out $10,000 on a credit card loan and buy 50-100 more.

Then I would start gnashing my teeth at every further price drop, lying awake at night hoping so hard price recovers really really fast so I can sell half at double the price to pay the loan off.

ftfy

Even with a normal job paying off $10k is far from impossible.

Oh absolutely. But he was the one who described taking out a loan on a cc (pretty high interest rate, to my knowledge), then selling half of the coins to pay it back, i.e. a wet dream of buying in low and selling at the immediately imminent recovery. I was poking fun at that unwavering certainty that it is a sure thing price always goes back up again, just because the fundamentals look okay, and price did that over the past 3 years.

You must agree it's very likely though. The gamble is likely to have a positive expected value (doesn't mean you should do it, I'm not).

I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:

a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.

b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).

When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure.  Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.

[Roy Badami]

When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure.  Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.

I think it depends on what you mean by failure.  I'd put the chances of the crypto being broken, the technology otherwise failing, bitcoin being essentially banned worldwide - or some other form of total failure - in the 1-2% range.

On the other hand, there is almost certainly already a rather big element of future adoption priced in by the markets.  There is a possibility of Bitcoin failing to get any mainstream traction - and of the stores that are currently dabbling with it losing interest.  And in that scenario bitcoin's fair value is probably a lot lower than right now.  I'd put the probability of this scenario maybe in the 10-20% range.

roy

[oda.krell]

...

When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure.  Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.

Interesting. Would have guessed you'd give it a much lower value. But, yeah, that's probably my estimate as well, in a very rough "big success / slowly fizzle out / sudden catastrophic (market or technical) failure" distinction.

I do however notice that, as the USD value of my BTC ... I should really stop using that acronym ...  my XBT position increases, I'm becoming less tolerant of whatever low risk of total failure. I guess to fully specify an individual's risk profile you need to reserve a dimension for 'total value'. Or at least, my risk profile seems to work like that.

[Roy Badami]

I do however notice that, as the USD value of my BTC ... I should really stop using that acronym ...  my XBT position increases, I'm becoming less tolerant of whatever low risk of total failure. I guess to fully specify an individual's risk profile you need to reserve a dimension for 'total value'. Or at least, my risk profile seems to work like that.

Right.

"I could have been a millionaire, but I messed up" is just depressing.

People start to cash out, in varying degrees, when their holdings reach life changing amounts (for varying definitions of 'life changing').  This is a good thing, because it means that bitcoin gets spread around more, rather than being concentrated solely with the early adopters.

[Slingshot]

I think we're in for a quiet week or two and then some big moves.


Obviously because I've said that we will get some big moves in the next week or two, and then it will go quiet...  

 From December 2013 the Price range was about $400 to $1200 (That is what I stated in December 2013 near the top of the range at the time).


 From now the CURRENT Price range I set at $400 to $700*
=====================================

*(But maybe once $550 level is breached we soar way past $700 and not stay in the $400-$700 range )


 The Next Price in the near future is likely from $700 up to ?______?  ($1200max to $4800max) and not possible for me to calculate.


 But the CURRENT Price range I set at $400 to $700 and it should stand until the next break out that is likely but not certain to set all time highs shortly after sustained trading for more than a week above about $700 or in the range.

(This all is roughly, I care not to define too technical of a set of exact price ranges.
Easily prices could dip slightly below or above the ranges mentioned).


 Get very excited when $700 is breached for longer than one week.

 But for now...


 From now the CURRENT Price range I set at $400 to $700*
=====================================
*(But maybe once $550 level is breached we soar way past $700 and not stay in the $400-$700 range )


 And hey, I did get the prior range roughly correct. And somewhere in this  Economics section of the forum here if anyone doubts this, lol.


***I doubt many during December 2013 thought that we would revisit the $400 level. So keep that in mind.
      Also, through 2013, I always kept underestimating the strength of Bitcoin. Never again, lol...Wow!



 Everyone that understands Bitcoin Loves Bitcoin.


 Bitcoin is The Future.


 Bitcoin is Freedom.

[BitchicksHusband]

...

When I first bought in, (just after the FINCEN regulations appearing on Mt. Gox for the first time (which they subsequently ignored)), I thought at that moment bitcoin had a 50% chance of failure.  Today, I personally believe that number is around 10%-20%.

Interesting. Would have guessed you'd give it a much lower value. But, yeah, that's probably my estimate as well, in a very rough "big success / slowly fizzle out / sudden catastrophic (market or technical) failure" distinction.

I do however notice that, as the USD value of my BTC ... I should really stop using that acronym ...  my XBT position increases, I'm becoming less tolerant of whatever low risk of total failure. I guess to fully specify an individual's risk profile you need to reserve a dimension for 'total value'. Or at least, my risk profile seems to work like that.

That's exactly it.  A 1%-2% chance of total breakage and going to zero.  And a 15%-18% chance of a maximum of 3 digits or maybe $1300 like BofA/MS said.  But since my average is still less than $200, I'm not that worried about that scenario.

And hey, a 80% chance of 100×-1000× your money is pretty darn good if you ask me.

[segeln]

I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:

a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.

b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).

Do you allow me agreeing?

[oda.krell]

I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:

a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.

b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).

Do you allow me agreeing?

I'm glad you agree, but I'm not sure if we agree to the same thing.

[zimmah]

I stress this often enough: I am (still) a long term bull. But there are two additions I don't see everyone in here making with equal certainty:

a) there is /a lot/ of room to the downside left, both in absolute price, and duration of the downtrend. The expo trendline is a good guess of the past, and a decent predictor for the long run, but it is absolutely no guarantee for the performance in the coming month, 2 months, or even year.

b) there is still a very real risk of "total failure" of this investment. To be clear, I consider the chance of success and corresponding growth high enough to make this baby EV+, but everyone needs to ask himself if he or she is, honestly, comfortable with a, say, 30% or 40% chance of total failure (if you think those numbers are too high, fine. they're more of an example than actual prediction).

Do you allow me agreeing?

I'm glad you agree, but I'm not sure if we agree to the same thing.

that, sir, is a mighty epic quote.

[piramida]

yes, there most probably will be one more week at $400 and then breakout above 500 is imminent.

Brilliant Stuff!

Another bookmarked quote for my collection.

Which other of my totally correct quotes are in your collection now, Mat?