BTC Fractals.

[gogxmagog]

Could you use this for prediction? My caveman brain sees it always going down (smaller price)
The most I know about fractals is stuff stoned hippies have told me at raves.
It's like the golden mean in art design isn't it? Of course, that would mean everything is constantly being reduced?
Trippy none the less.

[chessnut]

Could you use this for prediction? My caveman brain sees it always going down (smaller price)
The most I know about fractals is stuff stoned hippies have told me at raves.
It's like the golden mean in art design isn't it? Of course, that would mean everything is constantly being reduced?
Trippy none the less.

I posted a second chart. did you see that one? very significant.

basically fractals are self similar, not identical. Of coarse we cannot see the future 100% using patterns on charts, this is just the way that natural forces resolve in a liquid market, in fractals. the most important thing about EW analysis/fractals are the junctures they offer. if you can identify an exact point of price/time where your expectations will be met/broken, then your trades will have a very high risk reward ratio, and you will be able to handle the stress of trading more mechanically. when the junctures are obviously related to fundamental events and panic sell offs etc, these junctures have fundamental significance, and should indicate reversals where they are seen. 339 is a prime example of an large impulsive wave terminating after panic selling. I bought at 355 when I saw this, not knowing what the future would bring, but simply knowing that the panic was over.

[gogxmagog]

Ok, I vaguely get it, I think...
The charts would make more sense with a detailed legend.
I'm no math.
 
Intriguing enough for me to do some independant research though.

Thanks for this  

Edit- oddly enough, just before I saw your thread, I was just remarking that the (general) mood (sentiment)across bitcointalk has noticeably taken a turn towards more positive compared to the gloom of the last couple weeks. Bullish?

[chessnut]

Edit- oddly enough, just before I saw your thread, I was just remarking that the (general) mood (sentiment)across bitcointalk has noticeably taken a turn towards more positive compared to the gloom of the last couple weeks. Bullish?

sentiment works like this - imagine everyone who is subject to craze buys the item subject to craze. At the point where the maximum amount of those people have bought, the price will be pushed up very high because of the demand they cause. However, having just bought that thing you are likely convinced for some reason or another that it will increase further in value. so when a price of something is at an extreme, an ATH, and a LOT of people are very bullish, that means that most demand is already expressed, and the slightest of supply to that market will cripple it (it will crash).
we are at a bottom extreme, and imo most people still think they are in for some 'cheap coins'. that is bullish. today, the sentiment is turning slightly more bullish, but this is not a sufficient contrary indicator because we are not near a bullish extreme. in this case, it is a good thing - people are realising that this is not the apocalypse.

[gogxmagog]

I would also like to see same type of charting applied to internet adoption. I'm fascinated but I'll silent now and let the people who know what they're talking about speak.

Good work bro

[RyNinDaCleM]

For every wave marked 1, 3,or 5, there are 5 smaller waves making it up. For each of those 1, 3, and 5, there are 5 smaller waves making it up. etc...etc...etc

[chessnut]

I would also like to see same type of charting applied to internet adoption. I'm fascinated but I'll silent now and let the people who know what they're talking about speak.

Good work bro

cheers, no problem.
I'd like to see a complete chart of the internet but I dont think there is one chart that represents the internet as charts may represent bitcoin. There's RyNinDaClem, authority on EW around here. that graph is a better illustration of fractals than bitcoin has to provide, but nice to compare the two.

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's not exact, but it is very close. It's a bit smaller in scale, so it may not challenge the $339 low, but this could play out.




Oh, and the counting is not for EW purposes. It's just to show the similarities.

Edit:
For the sake of argument, 13 waves is impulsive. 11 is not

[Alonzo Ewing]

Looks like fractal pattern might be holding after all, but with a variation.  If so, a near-term might be happening in the next day or two.

[JustAnotherSheep]

that is bullish. today, the sentiment is turning slightly more bullish, but this is not a sufficient contrary indicator because we are not near a bullish extreme. in this case, it is a good thing - people are realising that this is not the apocalypse.

I would argue for the contrary, that this is not bullish but possibly even bearish, as the general herd of people need to feel that this is, in fact, the apocalypse before a true bottom can be reached.

In other words we need far more hodlers to pull a Veronica

[bitcoinsrus]

that is bullish. today, the sentiment is turning slightly more bullish, but this is not a sufficient contrary indicator because we are not near a bullish extreme. in this case, it is a good thing - people are realising that this is not the apocalypse.

I would argue for the contrary, that this is not bullish but possibly even bearish, as the general herd of people need to feel that this is, in fact, the apocalypse before a true bottom can be reached.

In other words we need far more hodlers to pull a Veronica

[cbeast]

[gogxmagog]

fractals work with an element of randomness as well, do they not? Chaos theory and all that? I'm waaaaay out of my depth here, but the loose understanding I have of fractal science suggests that they are not useful as indicators of future movements, i.e. they may go up, down or sideways, depending on a myriad of external factors. (?)

jeez, this EROWID science stuff...I'm just digging myself deeper (derper)

[chessnut]

fractals work with an element of randomness as well, do they not? Chaos theory and all that? I'm waaaaay out of my depth here, but the loose understanding I have of fractal science suggests that they are not useful as indicators of future movements, i.e. they may go up, down or sideways, depending on a myriad of external factors. (?)

jeez, this EROWID science stuff...I'm just digging myself deeper (derper)

it's all about the market conditions. on a quiet day when nothing is fundamentally changing the free market can be effectively random, yet also retrospectively move in fractals. But, for example after an important news release a lot of people may panic sell. this will cause a wave that has natural limits. when the wave is complete, it will have formed a complete fractal system. using fractals we can pinpoint a high confidence entry. The best real example of this is the 339 low, It gave a very impressive entry using EW analysis. I got on at 355 as soon as I realised.

I do tend to disagree that the market is random. Global Liquid markets inevitably cause wave action. just like global weather systems. the waves that roll up onto the beach are always regular wavelength and consistent amplitude, yet they are the harmonic result of uncountable random events at sea.

[tspacepilot]

Everything in nature is fractal, from leaves on a tree to the clouds in the sky. The Bitcoin market is part of nature, it is controlled by a mass of human beings and is organic in nature. It is no surprise it has fractal qualities. However these fractals probably aren't very good for accurate predictions.

However, there have been 3 big pump and dumps for Bitcoin, these are also likely fractal in nature, and are a good prediction there will be more large pump and dumps in the future http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/

Can you say a bit more about these pump-n-dumps?  I'm into the fractal thing (the main topic of this thread), but as a side note, who's been doing the pumping?

[chessnut]

Everything in nature is fractal, from leaves on a tree to the clouds in the sky. The Bitcoin market is part of nature, it is controlled by a mass of human beings and is organic in nature. It is no surprise it has fractal qualities. However these fractals probably aren't very good for accurate predictions.

However, there have been 3 big pump and dumps for Bitcoin, these are also likely fractal in nature, and are a good prediction there will be more large pump and dumps in the future http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/

That cant be easily generalised. In general free market conditions, a zero sum game is always tough to make money in, fractals or no. But when fractals systems are caused by greater fundamental events, the chart begins to tell a story. If we dont know future events, the second best thing we can know is when the events that have come and gone had their net effect on the market. an unexpected fundamental event will always cause a wave, the wave will unfold in fractals, and sometimes we can see when the fractal system has terminated. 339 low was a prime example.

[hellscabane]

Everything in nature is fractal, from leaves on a tree to the clouds in the sky. The Bitcoin market is part of nature, it is controlled by a mass of human beings and is organic in nature. It is no surprise it has fractal qualities. However these fractals probably aren't very good for accurate predictions.

However, there have been 3 big pump and dumps for Bitcoin, these are also likely fractal in nature, and are a good prediction there will be more large pump and dumps in the future http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/

That cant be easily generalised. In general free market conditions, a zero sum game is always tough to make money in, fractals or no. But when fractals systems are caused by greater fundamental events, the chart begins to tell a story. If we dont know future events, the second best thing we can know is when the events that have come and gone had their net effect on the market. an unexpected fundamental event will always cause a wave, the wave will unfold in fractals, and sometimes we can see when the fractal system has terminated. 339 low was a prime example.

That's an excellent explanation, I concur.

Knowing when events come along is the trick. They can happen at any time.

Of course, though, in a way, fractals should give a sort of generalization to the next time there would be a "major event." This is assuming that the we have actually made a pattern that can be part of a fractal. Who says that we've even completed one cycle?

[tspacepilot]

Everything in nature is fractal, from leaves on a tree to the clouds in the sky. The Bitcoin market is part of nature, it is controlled by a mass of human beings and is organic in nature. It is no surprise it has fractal qualities. However these fractals probably aren't very good for accurate predictions.

However, there have been 3 big pump and dumps for Bitcoin, these are also likely fractal in nature, and are a good prediction there will be more large pump and dumps in the future http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/

That cant be easily generalised. In general free market conditions, a zero sum game is always tough to make money in, fractals or no. But when fractals systems are caused by greater fundamental events, the chart begins to tell a story. If we dont know future events, the second best thing we can know is when the events that have come and gone had their net effect on the market. an unexpected fundamental event will always cause a wave, the wave will unfold in fractals, and sometimes we can see when the fractal system has terminated. 339 low was a prime example.

But I thought that market values were exactly *not* a zero-sum game.  Or maybe I'm misunderstanding you somewhere.  Can you elaborate?

[chessnut]

Everything in nature is fractal, from leaves on a tree to the clouds in the sky. The Bitcoin market is part of nature, it is controlled by a mass of human beings and is organic in nature. It is no surprise it has fractal qualities. However these fractals probably aren't very good for accurate predictions.

However, there have been 3 big pump and dumps for Bitcoin, these are also likely fractal in nature, and are a good prediction there will be more large pump and dumps in the future http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/

That cant be easily generalised. In general free market conditions, a zero sum game is always tough to make money in, fractals or no. But when fractals systems are caused by greater fundamental events, the chart begins to tell a story. If we dont know future events, the second best thing we can know is when the events that have come and gone had their net effect on the market. an unexpected fundamental event will always cause a wave, the wave will unfold in fractals, and sometimes we can see when the fractal system has terminated. 339 low was a prime example.

But I thought that market values were exactly *not* a zero-sum game.  Or maybe I'm misunderstanding you somewhere.  Can you elaborate?

there is a finite sum of USD and BTC at any given point, and although that amount may change over time, wealth is not created by printing USD or mining bitcoin. every time someone loses money on the market, somebody makes an equal amount of money on the market, and total USD and BTC in circulation remain the same.

[tspacepilot]

Everything in nature is fractal, from leaves on a tree to the clouds in the sky. The Bitcoin market is part of nature, it is controlled by a mass of human beings and is organic in nature. It is no surprise it has fractal qualities. However these fractals probably aren't very good for accurate predictions.

However, there have been 3 big pump and dumps for Bitcoin, these are also likely fractal in nature, and are a good prediction there will be more large pump and dumps in the future http://www.usacryptocoins.com/thecryptocurrencytimes/uncategorized/the-past-and-future-of-bitcoins-price/

That cant be easily generalised. In general free market conditions, a zero sum game is always tough to make money in, fractals or no. But when fractals systems are caused by greater fundamental events, the chart begins to tell a story. If we dont know future events, the second best thing we can know is when the events that have come and gone had their net effect on the market. an unexpected fundamental event will always cause a wave, the wave will unfold in fractals, and sometimes we can see when the fractal system has terminated. 339 low was a prime example.

But I thought that market values were exactly *not* a zero-sum game.  Or maybe I'm misunderstanding you somewhere.  Can you elaborate?

there is a finite sum of USD and BTC at any given point, and although that amount may change over time, wealth is not created by printing USD or mining bitcoin. every time someone loses money on the market, somebody makes an equal amount of money on the market, and total USD and BTC in circulation remain the same.

I understand, the amount of bitcoins under discussion is a zero-sum game. Ie, i give a bitcoin away means I just lost one, there's no creating bitcoins after the21millionth one is mined.  However, the value of a bitcoin isn't directly tied to it's unit.  The value is set by whatever someone is willing to trade for it.  That seems to me to be the opposite of a zero sum game.   Example:

1) I have 0btc, you have 1btc.  for illustration, assume you can buy a pizza at our favorite pizzaria for 1btc
2) You send me 0.5btc.
3) I have 0.5btc, you have 0.5btc   (ok, zero-sum with respect to the number of bitcoins, neither of us can afford 1 pizza)
4) ...time passes..."value" of a bitcoin doubles. (1 pizza now costs 0.5btc)
5) We now each have enough money to buy a pizza.

Am I making sense or am I missing the point somewhere?