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Author Topic: ardent speculators: consider shorting before 4th May 00:00GMT (that means 3rd)  (Read 3483 times)
Wandererfromthenorth
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May 03, 2014, 12:50:37 PM
 #21

two questions for you:

1: Do you think this whole china situation will be finished by the 10th May deadline? Meaning that anything bad that can happen in china regarding bitcoin should happen within that deadline?

2: do you think that the long term bottom will in the end be the $340 that we have already seen? Do you think it is possible that we are going to break that?
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jcoin200
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May 03, 2014, 02:52:43 PM
 #22

two questions for you:

1: Do you think this whole china situation will be finished by the 10th May deadline? Meaning that anything bad that can happen in china regarding bitcoin should happen within that deadline?

2: do you think that the long term bottom will in the end be the $340 that we have already seen? Do you think it is possible that we are going to break that?

Good questions. I'd also like to know if you think the opening of a usa exchange could offset the closure or insolvency of the Chinese exchanges? I've heard on here that one was in the works. Also if places like Argentina and Brazil adopting btc could help offset bad news out of China.
segeln
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May 03, 2014, 06:01:00 PM
 #23

Fällt der Kurs jedoch auf Tages- und Wochenschlusskursbasis unter 335 $ ab, müssten Abgaben bis zum Unterstützungsbereich bei 250 - 270 $ einkalkuliert werden. Unterhalb von 200 $ wird es kritischer, dann droht ein Rutsch bis zunächst 120 - 130 $.



http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-situation-spitzt-sich-zu,3730811
 Translation:
Quote
goes the rate on a day- or week-basis under 335 $ then losses down to the the reistence range 205 - 270 " have to be considerd

Under 200 " it becomes more critical than a downslide might go to 120-130 $
zhangweiwu
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May 07, 2014, 04:00:47 AM
 #24

Speculators:

A week ago I said 480 was safe to short, I personally would short at 450$ too. If you decided to short anyway, your position now is good. I do not think the bottom of this May is not there yet, wait and it will get cheaper - but this time I am not as sure as I was when I predicted the 350$ bottom (which is precious to 24-hour). Judge for yourself - but you can also feel safe that it will not grow much higher before 10th May.

two questions for you:

1: Do you think this whole china situation will be finished by the 10th May deadline? Meaning that anything bad that can happen in china regarding bitcoin should happen within that deadline?

2: do you think that the long term bottom will in the end be the $340 that we have already seen? Do you think it is possible that we are going to break that?

The China situation will not be finished by 10th May deadline. The worst punishment has not yet happened. If the market rally after 10th May, it may be an opportunity to short again, but expect less profit than the guys who shorted by 16th May, because China impact is getting weaker and weaker. It is hard to say how much China's bad future influnces prices - I recently wasn't closely following how the world is developing, thus I have no facts to base my judgement. But I consider rise in Bitcoin price will get more punishment from PBOC, because PBOC intend to make Bitcoin look like a bad investment option - it is becoming a face issue. Keep in mind that PBOC has a large, large arsenal, and they didn't take out their big weapons yet. The Dec 2013 announcement showed PBOC has the backing of weapons outside of banking system. In Chinese words, this is a fight between an ant and a tree. There will be a day when our tiny tiny bitcoin doesn't shit this world's wealthest organization (PBOC) and their powerful friends. Bitcoin is not over.

When I say 'punishment' I am speaking in the tone of PBOC.

I cannot answer your second question as of now.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
frienemy
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May 07, 2014, 08:59:19 AM
 #25

In Chinese words, this is a fight between an ant and a tree.

Ants and trees can coexist and even if the tree tries to threaten the ants, they might call their friends, the termites Wink

But as you said, even if it gets lower, even if much lower, bitcoin is not finished. Chinese support would indeed be great, but in the long run bitcoin will survive with or without it. It's just so exhausting to see the prolonged attack from behind from PBOC, delaying the success of bitcoin. But maybe even this is a good thing in order to build up some infrastructure in the meantime. More ATMs, more businesses, more acceptance every day. More fuel to the rocket, no matter if the launch is this year or the next or 2016 or 2020.


MCTRL_751 >   END OF LINE
p0peji
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May 07, 2014, 10:47:32 AM
 #26

Just a short question as I am not Chinese and can only read it using Google Translate, which is far from optimal. I just went over to the Chinese sub-section of this board to see what their sentiment is concerning the PBOC and the whole exchange thing. For as far as I could tell, they are about as much in denial as the people on the speculation section. Could you please shed some more light on what you think is the current sentiment concerning bitcoin in China?
BitchicksHusband
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May 07, 2014, 07:17:15 PM
 #27

Well, let's see.  They released a joint statement today saying they are still doing business and the price really didn't dip all that much on May 4th.

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
zhangweiwu
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May 08, 2014, 02:41:07 PM
 #28

Well, let's see.  They released a joint statement today saying they are still doing business and the price really didn't dip all that much on May 4th.

You are right. I am happy to learn this. I did not short it myself (because the price had not reached the line 480$ or 450$ which I marked for shorting), for anyone who did it anyway, I am inclined to think now is the time to reverse your position, in case the market rally by 10th May.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
Cassius
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May 08, 2014, 08:20:46 PM
 #29

Well, let's see.  They released a joint statement today saying they are still doing business and the price really didn't dip all that much on May 4th.

You are right. I am happy to learn this. I did not short it myself (because the price had not reached the line 480$ or 450$ which I marked for shorting), for anyone who did it anyway, I am inclined to think now is the time to reverse your position, in case the market rally by 10th May.


Have I missed something? Do you now believe they will be allowed to continue operating in some form?
Dalmar
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May 08, 2014, 08:26:37 PM
 #30

The joint statement of Chinese bitcoin exchanges mentioned that they will stop margin trading. This means that Chinese shorters have to close their positions soon and it might lead to a final short squeeze.

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John999
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May 08, 2014, 10:10:43 PM
 #31

The joint statement of Chinese bitcoin exchanges mentioned that they will stop margin trading. This means that Chinese shorters have to close their positions soon and it might lead to a final short squeeze.

If it is the case it also means margin longs have to close their positions.
windjc
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May 08, 2014, 10:25:49 PM
 #32

The joint statement of Chinese bitcoin exchanges mentioned that they will stop margin trading. This means that Chinese shorters have to close their positions soon and it might lead to a final short squeeze.

They already closed. Thats why we got the run up.

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zhangweiwu
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May 09, 2014, 01:00:28 AM
 #33

"now is the time to reverse your position, in case the market rally by 10th May."

Have I missed something? Do you now believe they will be allowed to continue operating in some form?

No I did not think the bad news stops here and exchanges survive -- so slow it is to publish editorials, in which I should've explained a few days ago -- I think the market ignores China or feel reliefed for the moment, hence there is a possibility of small rally, and those who shorted should not risk getting themselves in the predicament.. Long term outlook for China is still bad.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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