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Author Topic: The Bitcoin Show on OnlyOneTV.com  (Read 49050 times)
Bruce Wagner
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July 02, 2011, 02:30:53 AM
 #121

Do you know hardware hackers from NYC Resistor or what?

Nope.  We host the weekly "Bitcoin Hackathons" here at the OnlyOneTV Studios... every week.
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Nescio
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July 03, 2011, 07:03:48 AM
 #122

Bruce,

you were ON baby with the Timpone interview.  you finally hit all the major rebuttal points that i've wanted you to broadcast to the world about the Fed, gold, inflation, and bitcoin.

one thing i'd like to emphasize is that you seem to imply that the price of btc will keep on rising forever while the price of everything else will fall in relation to btc.  while i agree that btc still has a long way to rise, i think its important for people to understand that at some price it will level out and become a stable, constant, currency that doesn't whipsaw up and down like it is now in its infancy.

the reason this point is important is that if it did keep rising forever, number one it would crush the value of everyones other investments (homes, stocks, commodities, whatever) and this scares people.  we don't want to scare people.

Bruce misunderstood Patrick's question (which came from Andy Gauss) and answered it with "but Bitcoin is infinitely divisible" (Patrick seemed confused and didn't ask for clarification). It doesn't matter if it's infinitely divisible (which is a hyperbole by itself), the point of the question was the above. Most people will have other holdings/debts (a house/mortgage, car payments/amortization, maybe gold/silver, pension in USD etc.), which will indeed be crushed if Bitcoin keeps deflating exponentially. And if Bitcoin is successful, it has to keep deflating a lot before equilibrium is reached, which could be ongoing for decades.

That's a major issue to which I haven't heard a proper rebuttal yet, it has been routinely sidestepped. Also, even if you could, you wouldn't want to convert your mortgage into BTC, because if you have to pay back 10k BTC now, a few years down the line when the BTC/USD value will have gone up by a magnitude, your debt (mortgage in BTC) will have gone up by a magnitude too. The only way to equal that as far as I can see is to hold as much BTC of your own to compensate, but that kinda makes having a mortgage pointless, so we have to assume that the mortgage is needed and therefore a heavily deflating Bitcoin is a disaster.

The prevailing argument seems to be that this will prevent lending (banks will want to sit on Bitcoin because it should generate much more revenue than interest or trading and people would be crazy to take on loans that increase their debt exponentially). Which would mean that noone could buy a house upfront unless they already had the money for it. This has far reaching implications, it would impact the automotive industry, shipping, commercial building in general (how do you get loans for railways, airstrips, harbours, bridges etc.?), anything that requires an upfront investment that is regained slowly over years.

I guess one answer would be that you would want to use USD or whatever for all of those things and BTC for everything else while BTC slowly takes over, but somehow I'm skeptical about this working out without almost something like a planned economy. Why would a bank not convert all of their USD into BTC for maximum ROI as soon as they saw where it was going for example? And this would accelerate the demise of USD (or whatever has taken its place by then, after QExxx) as well, which would cause chaos on a massive scale. I don't think that the argument flies that people will be forced to abandon rampant consumerism, because you have to buy food, shelter, medical care, education for your children etc. with something.

Quote from: cypherdoc
overall, great show and i watch it everyday!

I watched a couple of them in succession, the one with Stefan Thomas was great, very intelligent, precise and sympathetic too, someone I would gladly work with. The episode before that was a good rant Smiley

Bruce: a criticism you must have heard before is that you seem to be engrossed in your own world most of the time. Particularly when the guest is speaking, don't concentrate on your laptop/chatroom/forum/papers, pay attention to the screen. Have your production assistant do the other stuff (wear earpiece for prompting). Also, you're on screen, not on radio, we can see every hand gesture regarding text messages and whatnot. It may be a good idea to get more suitable chairs as well, you're slouching Smiley
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July 03, 2011, 07:20:58 AM
 #123

Thanks for these shows. Its nice to have a medium for bitcoin Smiley

If you like my post please feel free to give me some positive rep https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=18639
Tip me BTC: 1FBmoYijXVizfYk25CpiN8Eds9J6YiRDaX
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July 04, 2011, 12:26:02 AM
 #124

Nescio,

wow, that was a really long response and i'm not sure i fully understand what you're talking about but here's what i envision:

A Bitcoin Standard.  basically a perpetuation of the USD reserve currency system built on top of Bitcoin instead of gold.  precious metals are obsolete IMO due to immobility.  Nations used to ship hoards back and forth to rebalance global trade imbalances which was slow and ineffective.

A Bitcoin Standard would allow instantaneous rebalancing btwn nations to bring overleveraging back into line worldwide on an instantaneous basis.  we could allow a reasonable amount of fractional reserving, say 10:1, that could prevent an entire collapse of the existing system.  it could be a win/win situation for all parties involved:  bankers could still make loans, citizens would be safe from currency debasement, and the overall system would be less prone to boom bust cycles.
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July 04, 2011, 10:59:56 PM
 #125

A Bitcoin Standard.

This doesn't answer the deflation question. Neither does fractional reserve banking (in fact deflation complicates that).

Economically speaking there is little difference between a Bitcoin or gold standard, apart from Bitcoin supply being more deterministic.

Practically speaking, if you back a currency with Bitcoin, then why not use Bitcoin instead of said currency?

Quote from: cypherdoc
we could allow a reasonable amount of fractional reserving, say 10:1, that could prevent an entire collapse of the existing system.

FR is besides the point. It increases the amount of circulation (which may or may not cause inflation), but BTC in circulation (or not) will still deflate at the same rate.

And as said, why would a bank not buy BTC with USD when they see the deflation coming? A similar thing is happening with countries like China and Russia buying gold (and some SDR) and getting rid of USD. USD is going down the toilet, so gold (and SDR to some extent) is deflating in relation. OK, USD may not go down the toilet, but whatever they come up with for that, someone will have to pay the price. Most probably US citizens the most, the rest of the world to a lesser extent (USD is part of the SDR basket).
Bruce Wagner
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July 05, 2011, 01:29:52 PM
 #126

The Bitcoin Story on Al Jazeera English will air TODAY! "For certain in the 6pm and 8pm hours, but probably a few times before then too." Smiley
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July 05, 2011, 01:55:17 PM
 #127

A Bitcoin Standard.

This doesn't answer the deflation question. Neither does fractional reserve banking (in fact deflation complicates that).

Economically speaking there is little difference between a Bitcoin or gold standard, apart from Bitcoin supply being more deterministic.

Practically speaking, if you back a currency with Bitcoin, then why not use Bitcoin instead of said currency?

Quote from: cypherdoc
we could allow a reasonable amount of fractional reserving, say 10:1, that could prevent an entire collapse of the existing system.

FR is besides the point. It increases the amount of circulation (which may or may not cause inflation), but BTC in circulation (or not) will still deflate at the same rate.

And as said, why would a bank not buy BTC with USD when they see the deflation coming? A similar thing is happening with countries like China and Russia buying gold (and some SDR) and getting rid of USD. USD is going down the toilet, so gold (and SDR to some extent) is deflating in relation. OK, USD may not go down the toilet, but whatever they come up with for that, someone will have to pay the price. Most probably US citizens the most, the rest of the world to a lesser extent (USD is part of the SDR basket).

personally, i don't like the term "deflating or inflating currency".  i prefer thinking about this in terms of "inflation or deflation" which in my definition is the increase or decrease in the supply of money plus credit.

one of the major arguments by gold bugs is the unbacked USD.  their solution is to revalue the price of gold by taking the total amt of USD in the world and dividing by the number of gold ounces in the world coming up with a figure IIRC of about $65K per oz.  this would be accompanied by a cessation of money printing and leverage thus reinforcing a complete gold std.

you could do the same thing with btc and i would argue it would be more efficient.  but you could easily enforce a 10:1 leverage ratio upon the USD with btc backing.

i think a compromise of this sort will have to happen (instead of going to an all btc system) to appease the fiat boys by allowing them some form loan making.
Bruce Wagner
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July 05, 2011, 05:31:53 PM
 #128

Can someone record: The Bitcoin Story on Al Jazeera English will air TODAY! "For certain in the 6pm and 8pm hours, but probably a few times.
Nescio
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July 05, 2011, 10:51:06 PM
 #129

..

I'm looking for insights to the problem posed. Any time you propose going full tilt gold standard, backing gold by BTC, BTC by gold, USD by BTC etc. etc. it's just putting up an abstraction that doesn't actually solve the problem. These all fall in the "you have proposed a solution to spam, here is why it won't work" category. We need to think about this ahead of time, it'll all work out in the end is not a good answer. A few decades of chaos is not a good answer either.

BTW, I think the meaning of inflation/deflation is clear from the given context, at least I'm ok with both the 'proper' use of inflation meaning increase in supply of the currency as well as with the 'common' use of increase of prices of goods priced in said currency (which equals devaluation of the currency, which describes the result of said increase in supply).
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July 05, 2011, 10:57:01 PM
 #130

..

I'm looking for insights to the problem posed. Any time you propose going full tilt gold standard, backing gold by BTC, BTC by gold, USD by BTC etc. etc. it's just putting up an abstraction that doesn't actually solve the problem. These all fall in the "you have proposed a solution to spam, here is why it won't work" category. We need to think about this ahead of time, it'll all work out in the end is not a good answer. A few decades of chaos is not a good answer either.

BTW, I think the meaning of inflation/deflation is clear from the given context, at least I'm ok with both the 'proper' use of inflation meaning increase in supply of the currency as well as with the 'common' use of increase of prices of goods priced in said currency (which equals devaluation of the currency, which describes the result of said increase in supply).

i'm not proposing anything.  i'm just suggesting what i think may happen.
Bruce Wagner
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July 06, 2011, 11:41:22 AM
 #131

Those tutorial videos are first thing on my priority list for this morning.

The idea is to teach people how to safely and securely backup their own bitcoins.... in two different ways:

One way appropriate for long term storage (savings)

And...

One way appropriate for daily transactions.  
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July 06, 2011, 11:56:43 AM
 #132

Can someone record: The Bitcoin Story on Al Jazeera English will air TODAY! "For certain in the 6pm and 8pm hours, but probably a few times.

Did anyone capture that?   I think someone posted about it http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26284.0 but I did not hear further from that.

Bruce Wagner
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July 06, 2011, 12:12:47 PM
 #133

Can someone record: The Bitcoin Story on Al Jazeera English will air TODAY! "For certain in the 6pm and 8pm hours, but probably a few times.

Did anyone capture that?   I think someone posted about it http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26284.0 but I did not hear further from that.

I heard it was a good one.  And I am in it. Smiley  If anyone recorded it, please email me.

Thanks!
Bruce Wagner
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July 06, 2011, 11:28:14 PM
 #134

Found it.... http://goo.gl/plEwV
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July 07, 2011, 12:13:16 AM
 #135

Found it.... http://goo.gl/plEwV
That's a nice video...too bad the quality isn't a bit better.

(gasteve on IRC) Does your website accept cash? https://bitpay.com
Bruce Wagner
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July 07, 2011, 12:23:29 AM
 #136

Yeah.  We're still looking for a better copy...  Let me know if anyone finds one.
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July 07, 2011, 01:08:56 AM
 #137

John Abell of Wired magazine says:
"I can't think of a really good, legitimate reason that anybody would be doing to bitcoin to buy milk and eggs and things like that.  It's a crazy, wacky currency."

It's disappointing that Wired magazine employees, of all people, would misunderstand what they are looking at.  He may be right that bitcoin won't be used to buy milk and eggs (from grocery stores), but it is already a way to protect wealth from inflation and hostile borders.  I think it's greatest growth factor will be for the world's "small people"* to send some money home and that's fine with me.

* http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/06/16/national/main6589819.shtml
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July 07, 2011, 01:32:34 AM
 #138

I have to agree, I can't agree with that Wired guy unless he were to elaborate on those thoughts just a little bit.

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July 07, 2011, 01:34:04 AM
 #139

IT'S CRAZY. IT'S WACKY!!
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July 07, 2011, 01:48:41 AM
 #140

Re: Aljazeera episode: Nice story...sex, drugs, rock and roll...wait a minute - we're missing the sex and rock and roll! Somebody get Mick Jagger on the line...!
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