I've ALSO Given Up

[YipYip]

I'll assume you're speaking towards me. Not sure if you're insinuating I'm "SMART"? I never said I was smart, quite the contrary, I'm probably pretty dumb when it comes to investing/trading. And yes, what I did appears risky, but it doesn't seem that risky to me. You may have also missed the point where I plan to buy back in if it goes back up instead of down.

Beware of the Bitcoin Nutters on this forum Bazil!!!

They will do nothing but fuck you up!

I remember back around the time when I first came to Bitcoin (also my first real attempts at trading). On the eve of the Dec 17th, I had sold my Bitcoins and had buy-ins at ~$450. Not only was I "a fool for selling" but my "$400 range buy-ins would never happen". "Hell", I was told, "there are so many people queuing up to buy-in the $500-$600 range that Bitcoin was just never going to get close to there". I of course argued my case but doubt creeped in and I raised my buy-in tranches up $100. Bitcoin fell to $380, and due to my naivety in trading I panic sold at $500 taking a large loss (I had large amount of funds in Bitcoin back then).

Beware of the Bitcoin Nutter! He will offer you some of his Kool-Aid! He will demand you drink his Kool-Aid! Whatever you do, don't drink Bitcoin Nutter's Kool Aid!


Ahem....


Here is another DanV YouTube video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cwlt-ICoC8

It is 2 hours long. I have just started watching it and am 40 minutes in. Excellent stuff. This is exactly the sort of thing I wished that I had watched back way back when I first came to Bitcoin. If you are going to invest in Bitcoin, this is well worth a couple of hours of your time.

Nigga please ...Look in the mirror for fuck sakes

Your so called sub 300 has not happended so @ this point in  time if anything you are the nutter and I am reality ..

The OP HAS taken a high risk strategy... time,patience & resolve is what is needed for profit ...being right or wrong is not the key point in this game

Lol! This made me laugh, just the way you said what you said.

Why do you consider it "high" risk? Do you think $430 is/was the bottom?

Funny thing is that you are not the only one looking at this move at the moment ...here is a post from another thread that outlines it

Also yes 415 support point has been tested again & again & i think the CHina FUD has run its course

So here is a hypothetical.....

<High risk ...and a real novice move >

What happens if you have a buy in @ 330 and it only hits 331 (this has happned to me on many occasions and to make a point I  missed getting filled  one time by 0.4 cents Sad )

SO now where are you ...locked in 12 k loss and by the time you scramble to figure out what is going on and IF (big IF ) you are awake or at a terminal when all of this happens you can get a new market order on

1) Locked in 12k loss
2) Misssed getting filled
3) Missed the movement
= HIGH Risk

I think you have a 1 in 3 of this working for you ...On the trade you are talking about it could easily end up costing you 20-25k

The market loves smashing people into the ground

</High risk ...and a real novice move >

HODL....especially as you have gone through what I see as the worst of the volatility ..but hey to be honest I dont really give a flying fruit cake

I may be wrong or I may be right or neither but essentially that does not matter as the market can & will do anything ..everything is a calculation of risk

WHat is your risk appetite ?

[YipYip]

Lol! This made me laugh, just the way you said what you said.

Why do you consider it "high" risk? Do you think $430 is/was the bottom?

Go and learn some TA and you will know that $430 is very likely not the bottom for this wave down. All the commonly used indicators are spelling bad news ahead for Bitcoin long positions.

Go do some Trend Based Fib Retracements on the previous few drops ($1150 to $380; $995 to $400; $710 - $340) from top, to bottom, and back up the upper reach of the bounce. Notice how the following drop stopped at around 76% ($400), notice how the next drop stopped around 62% ($340). Now go and do a Trend Based Fib Retracement on the current down wave, from the bottom at $340, to the top at $548, and see where the 50% retracement line lands.......$360?

76% - 62% - 50%  etc (being the fib retracement targets).

I would suggest that there will be a retest of $360 and probably a strong bounce around that price point, but that is not to say that $360 will be low, but certainly a target for a possible good short term long opportunity.

P.S. I could show you a chart of what I mean but it just looks like a bit of a fkn mess.

This has been discussed AD-NAUSEUM that crypto does not do TA very well because of a laundry list of reasons

You are living in a fools paradise if u are basing your crypto trading on TA IMHO

EDIT: I meant to say ONLY on TA

[MatTheCat]

This has been discussed AD-NAUSEUM that crypto does not do TA very well because of a laundry list of reasons

You are living in a fools paradise if u are basing your crypto trading on TA IMHO

Oh really!?

 

[Bit_Happy]

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here....

OMG!
The scary chart says we might go down $50 or $100 before the next Huge Rally, and...
You consider 100% short to be the best move?
Then you open a thread to help sell others on the same bad idea?  

[Bazil240]

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here....

OMG!
The scary chart says we might go down $50 or $100 before the next Huge Rally, and...
You consider 100% short to be the best move?
Then you open a thread to help sell others on the same bad idea?  

Best move? I don't know, but obviously I'm hoping so.

I decided to open the thread after because I did not feel 100% about it. So far, reactions seem to be mixed. And I feel about the same about as I did when I started the thread. The small bump to $445 makes me feel 1) maybe I should have waited a little bit to sell and 2) maybe I should not have sold at all; these cancel each other out in my mind.

[Bit_Happy]

Trading isn't easy, don't give up.
Also, it could easily bounce back down to $400 by tomorrow:
No one knows for certain how soon BTC hits $1500, $2,500 & $3,500

[YipYip]

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here....

OMG!
The scary chart says we might go down $50 or $100 before the next Huge Rally, and...
You consider 100% short to be the best move?
Then you open a thread to help sell others on the same bad idea?  

Best move? I don't know, but obviously I'm hoping so.

I decided to open the thread after because I did not feel 100% about it. So far, reactions seem to be mixed. And I feel about the same about as I did when I started the thread. The small bump to $445 makes me feel 1) maybe I should have waited a little bit to sell and 2) maybe I should not have sold at all; these cancel each other out in my mind.

You are going to be sorry ..too many factors for there to be a high % of this working for u  

In most cases the market will do EXACTLY the oppiste of what your emotional response is

i.e you want down it will go up

You need to live in bizaro world or to look at yourself as George Costanza i.e everything you do is wrong & do teh opposite is the secret to your success

Its called the Seinfield trading pattern

[Bazil240]

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here....

OMG!
The scary chart says we might go down $50 or $100 before the next Huge Rally, and...
You consider 100% short to be the best move?
Then you open a thread to help sell others on the same bad idea?  

Best move? I don't know, but obviously I'm hoping so.

I decided to open the thread after because I did not feel 100% about it. So far, reactions seem to be mixed. And I feel about the same about as I did when I started the thread. The small bump to $445 makes me feel 1) maybe I should have waited a little bit to sell and 2) maybe I should not have sold at all; these cancel each other out in my mind.

You are going to be sorry ..too many factors for there to be a high % of this working for u  

In most cases the market will do EXACTLY the oppiste of what your emotional response is

i.e you want down it will go up

You need to live in bizaro world or to look at yourself as George Costanza i.e everything you do is wrong & do teh opposite is the secret to your success

Its called the Seinfield trading pattern

But I've wanted it to go up for months and all it went was down    It is weird to be in the reverse position.

Lol at your "Seinfeld trading pattern", good stuff.

[Kramerc]

One of the best lessons that I've learned trading Bitcoin is never go full fiat. You can go 50%, 65%, 80%, but just don't go full fiat. The reason is simple: considering that 99% of the people here (and especially the stupid trolls) are actually medium/long term bulls that know bitcoin is currently undervalued, the pain of completely missing out on a rally is by far worse than seeing your "USD net worth" significantly decrease. I sure hope you've invested only what you can afford to lose.

I'll give you my example: I've bought all in, in december at average price of 585, and then proceeded to sell everything at 670. Even though the price was going up I knew (100% sure even though everyone was posting trains, rockets, boats, astronauts and what not) that the correction couldn't be over so soon. So I waited, and waited… and waited, and waited. Until one day I just couldn't watch bitcoin go up anymore with me being all out. So I bought, and luckily, knowing it would go down, I did so only with a fraction of my funds. It's easy to see that I bought at 985, literally moments before it completely reversed. Moments, not even minutes, fully aware of what was going on. But once I did buy, I felt relieved and after that I managed to continue trading considerably more efficiently, lowering my buy-in average considerably below my initial one.

TL DR: the current prices are just too good not to make a long-term investment, be it even 10% of your funds. Don't trade with everything, you might win, but it could drive you crazy as well. Hedge. Respect the stop loss.

[ravenjt]

One of the best lessons that I've learned trading Bitcoin is never go full fiat. You can go 50%, 65%, 80%, but just don't go full fiat. The reason is simple: considering that 99% of the people here (and especially the stupid trolls) are actually medium/long term bulls that know bitcoin is currently undervalued, the pain of completely missing out on a rally is by far worse than seeing your "USD net worth" significantly decrease. I sure hope you've invested only what you can afford to lose.

I'll give you my example: I've bought all in, in december at average price of 585, and then proceeded to sell everything at 670. Even though the price was going up I knew (100% sure even though everyone was posting trains, rockets, boats, astronauts and what not) that the correction couldn't be over so soon. So I waited, and waited… and waited, and waited. Until one day I just couldn't watch bitcoin go up anymore with me being all out. So I bought, and luckily, knowing it would go down, I did so only with a fraction of my funds. It's easy to see that I bought at 985, literally moments before it completely reversed. Moments, not even minutes, fully aware of what was going on. But once I did buy, I felt relieved and after that I managed to continue trading considerably more efficiently, lowering my buy-in average considerably below my initial one.

TL DR: the current prices are just too good not to make a long-term investment, be it even 10% of your funds. Don't trade with everything, you might win, but it could drive you crazy as well. Hedge. Respect the stop loss.

You are strange person. You bought at 985, knowing it would go down? You have since been investing in a steadily declining market, apparently with relentless glee? Do you actually like losing money?

[Kramerc]

I knew it would go down, I didn't know it would go down exactly then. In retrospect, I realize it was actually quite obvious - the fear of losing "the moon" was simply too great, so I "panic" bought. Lesson learned, when this kind of panic hits, you MUST do the opposite of what you feel.

And yes. I don't mind losing money if I learn something valuable that will help me earn many times more in the future. And I would definitely rather lose money over losing bitcoin.

[YipYip]

I knew it would go down, I didn't know it would go down exactly then. In retrospect, I realize it was actually quite obvious - the fear of losing "the moon" was simply too great, so I "panic" bought. Lesson learned, when this kind of panic hits, you MUST do the opposite of what you feel.

And yes. I don't mind losing money if I learn something valuable that will help me earn many times more in the future. And I would definitely rather lose money over losing bitcoin.

I agree on always doing the opposite of the panic/greed signal that you feel 

[bitcoinsrus]

I knew it would go down, I didn't know it would go down exactly then. In retrospect, I realize it was actually quite obvious - the fear of losing "the moon" was simply too great, so I "panic" bought. Lesson learned, when this kind of panic hits, you MUST do the opposite of what you feel.

And yes. I don't mind losing money if I learn something valuable that will help me earn many times more in the future. And I would definitely rather lose money over losing bitcoin.

Kram, do not worry.  If I went outside and started asking people what they thought about bitcoin, they would probably ask me what the hell I was talking about.  Atleast you understand what it is and have gotten in at a price where many others have (even though its close to ATH).

If you do not mind buying when you did, it means you were comfortable and just wanted to get it over.  No one could have predicted the crazy FUD that kept us there for months (and might or might not still be going on)

[BitOnyx]

It is very hard to take seriously analyses in such way. Bitcoin is completely different kind of idea. There were never even similar things like this one.

Based on different and modern way of supply of bitcoin we have to take into account completely different kind of dealing with trading.

[Torque]

One of the best lessons that I've learned trading Bitcoin is never go full fiat. You can go 50%, 65%, 80%, but just don't go full fiat. The reason is simple: considering that 99% of the people here (and especially the stupid trolls) are actually medium/long term bulls that know bitcoin is currently undervalued, the pain of completely missing out on a rally is by far worse than seeing your "USD net worth" significantly decrease. I sure hope you've invested only what you can afford to lose.

I watched in awe back in early November as the price went from $200 to $400 in what seemed like a week.  Then it just kept climbing.  At that time I remember thinking, "Never again will I be sitting in full fiat before a run up.  I'd rather be sleeping in coins that I might have overpaid a little for, than miss the next rally (and the next, and the next, etc)."

You never know what is going to happen in this market, and it is still absolutely miniscule in size.  So much runway left over the next 5-8 years it's ridiculous.  The bitcoin "craze" that will sweep the world could still be years away.

[DieJohnny]

It's a matter of time. At 6 months everybody is ready for the next bubble. At 9 months everybody starts to question whether there is a next bubble. At 12 months everybody has given up hope of another bubble and the real crash happens here.

This is more my sentiment. I don't think we will go up until there is truly capitulation of all the weak handed large investors from the Nov-Dec run.

[NotLambchop]

...
In most cases the market will do EXACTLY the oppiste of what your emotional response is
...
Its called the Seinfield trading pattern

Yeah, ur right. And everyone knows this and acts accordingly, thus nulling the Costanza factor

[gentlemand]

It's a matter of time. At 6 months everybody is ready for the next bubble. At 9 months everybody starts to question whether there is a next bubble. At 12 months everybody has given up hope of another bubble and the real crash happens here.

This is more my sentiment. I don't think we will go up until there is truly capitulation of all the weak handed large investors from the Nov-Dec run.

I think it's pointless basing anything on past performance. If Bitcoin was 200 years old then there'd be some precedents to count on.

There are far too many developments, both good and bad, to have the slightest clue where it'll be this November.

[Torque]

It's a matter of time. At 6 months everybody is ready for the next bubble. At 9 months everybody starts to question whether there is a next bubble. At 12 months everybody has given up hope of another bubble and the real crash run-up/bubble happens here.

FTFY

Bitcoin apparently rewards the most patient of all, and punishes the least.

[piramida]

I knew it would go down, I didn't know it would go down exactly then.

I first bought at $14 after the peak and mtgox fiasco, and sat with 85% loss for a little over a year while it went down to $2. You know, it was worth it Even though I lost hope at one point - at $2 - and that's when it started growing back