Weekly RSI and PVT (go to FPGA mining)

[ArsenShnurkov]

Weekly RSI is not in "oversold" zone yet. Let's go below $1

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

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[bittenbob]

Weekly RSI is not in "oversold" zone yet. Let's go below $1

Keep dreaming.

[ArsenShnurkov]

Keep dreaming.

Oh, I can do!

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

[Crypt_Current]

Keep dreaming.

Oh, I can do!

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

Riiiiiiiiiight... All two or three of the FPGA miners.  Regular miners would shut down en masse, causing the network to become extremely delayed and susceptible to 51% attacks... The end is nigh.

[bittenbob]

Keep dreaming.

Oh, I can do!

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

Im afraid the numbers you are looking at are reactionary and not necessarily indicative of future performance. I don't see any similarities except PVT is down slightly due to the drop in price (reactionary). RSI on your chart never even approached overbought so any drops should not be anywhere near as severe.

[ArsenShnurkov]

RSI on your chart never even approached overbought

That's because we didn't end the correction from $30.
Someone decided to provoke the second rally, but failed.
So bitcoin should continue to drop in value to meet it's true price.

so any drops should not be anywhere near as severe.

Some devastating event can be already in the way.
For example like design bug of new OP_EVAL opcode in bitcoin 0.6 client.

[sgbett]

Much as minute by minute view of RSI is not much more than noise, weekly view of RSI or PVT is also noisy due to short timescale of entire lifetime of BTC and the rate of change in market place.

I think RSI and PVT work best at daily scale in this market. But I'm no day trader, just looking to accumulate a bigger long position at good prices, to hold indefinitely.

Just my 2 cents.

[ArsenShnurkov]

I think RSI and PVT work best at daily scale in this market

Daily RSI is not in oversold zone either yet.

[Crypt_Current]

You would do better for short-mid term trading by paying attention to hourly RSI. Do you want to simply wait for price to move one way or the other, or would you rather take advantage of the many profit opportunities that occur while others are waiting it out?

If you know the right answer to that question then you understand why Bitcoin exchange will continue to attract new money...

Can you elaborate on this?  (For those of us less experienced with markets / trading...)  What is the right answer, and why?

[sgbett]

You would do better for short-mid term trading by paying attention to hourly RSI. Do you want to simply wait for price to move one way or the other, or would you rather take advantage of the many profit opportunities that occur while others are waiting it out?

If you know the right answer to that question then you understand why Bitcoin exchange will continue to attract new money...

I'm not a day trader. Hourly is too quick (though it useful to time trade once daily is oversold and I want to catch a down spike). I'm looking for bigger moves over the course of several days/weeks that I can scale in and out of. This suits me better, or I end up trading emotionally.

[Serge]

Arsen, you need to get your gang crew back in here, Edward and Nagle, maybe three of you could collectively push the price down  by $0.1

[sgbett]

Yeah hourly is useful, but I don't know as it is *more* useful (to me at least) i.e. regardless of what hourly says right now, I'm not planning on increasing position unless the daily predicates it. If the daily commands I buy though, I might then use the hourly to confirm an entry point.

In reality though its not as cut and dry as that because I'm biased towards long term accumulation, so in actual fact I have orders (of increasing dollar size) all the way down the order book. I'll then only scale out (and not fully) when things start looking overbought again - but purely with the intention of recycling those dollars into more BTC if/when it dips.

[chsados]

You would do better for short-mid term trading by paying attention to hourly RSI. Do you want to simply wait for price to move one way or the other, or would you rather take advantage of the many profit opportunities that occur while others are waiting it out?

If you know the right answer to that question then you understand why Bitcoin exchange will continue to attract new money...

I'm not a day trader. Hourly is too quick (though it useful to time trade once daily is oversold and I want to catch a down spike). I'm looking for bigger moves over the course of several days/weeks that I can scale in and out of. This suits me better, or I end up trading emotionally.

Then you are a 'swing trader'. In that case you should still find the hourly RSI a lot more useful to you than the weekly RSI.

where do you find hourly RSI?  i only see daily on bitcoincharts

[sgbett]

change time period from 'auto' to hourly...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSIzv

[chsados]

change time period from 'auto' to hourly...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSIzv

thx

For example... As you can see it does not always signal a short term price increase but it does so frequently.

hmmmm

[trogdorjw73]

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

This is silliness.

How can you ignore the initial investment to own an FPGA miner? Hardware is free? Time is free? Also, what if I want 700 Bitcoins today, and not .03 that I get from my FPGA miner? What if I don't know how to run an FPGA miner?

This. $550 or so for a single FPGA card that can then mine at a rate of .24 BTC per day given the *current* difficulty. Let's say you pay on average $0.10 per kWh, and the entire system to run a single FPGA card will use roughly 50W, so around $0.12 per day for power. (But if you're running multiple cards, the cost in electricity should go down.) If price ($6.20) and difficulty stay static (which is a really big IF!), then you will earn approximately $1.37 per day from an FPGA setup. At that rate, you can recoup the cost of the hardware investment in only 401 days. Of course, price and difficulty aren't static, and if you think the BTC price is too high right now and it were to drop to say $2 (after all, you said you could make money at just $0.35 per BTC), well, at $2 per BTC it would require approximately four years to pay off the hardware.

TL;DR: The only way FPGA mining makes sense is if either the hardware costs drop significantly, or the price of BTC goes up significantly.

[bittenbob]

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

This is silliness.

How can you ignore the initial investment to own an FPGA miner? Hardware is free? Time is free? Also, what if I want 700 Bitcoins today, and not .03 that I get from my FPGA miner? What if I don't know how to run an FPGA miner?

This. $550 or so for a single FPGA card that can then mine at a rate of .24 BTC per day given the *current* difficulty. Let's say you pay on average $0.10 per kWh, and the entire system to run a single FPGA card will use roughly 50W, so around $0.12 per day for power. (But if you're running multiple cards, the cost in electricity should go down.) If price ($6.20) and difficulty stay static (which is a really big IF!), then you will earn approximately $1.37 per day from an FPGA setup. At that rate, you can recoup the cost of the hardware investment in only 401 days. Of course, price and difficulty aren't static, and if you think the BTC price is too high right now and it were to drop to say $2 (after all, you said you could make money at just $0.35 per BTC), well, at $2 per BTC it would require approximately four years to pay off the hardware.

TL;DR: The only way FPGA mining makes sense is if either the hardware costs drop significantly, or the price of BTC goes up significantly.

+∞

I wish someone would pass this on to those who think a price drop below $2 would herald a grand age of FPGA mining. Simple fact is you must take ROI into account and the lower the price of bitcoin the less sense it makes to invest in such technology.

[CoinSpeculator]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

[bittenbob]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

GPU mining will always be profitable for those in apartments who don't have to pay for electricity. The GPU is easily resold since it is also used for gaming. An FPGA is not so easy to resell and if Bitcoin tanks you are screwed on your invested.

A 3 year ROI is beyond what any business I have ever worked for is willing to risk. ROI is usually 2 or less for corporate investments.

[chsados]

dont FPGA's hold high resell value?

[bittenbob]

dont FPGA's hold high resell value?

If you can find a buyer. Some of the FPGA's made for mining may not be suitable for the other applications of them. You would either have to sell to a company which requires approved vendors to purchase equipment (you will not qualify), a student who could get a special deal on a brand new one anyways or a hacker who wants to break WPA protection. If the market were suddenly flooded with FPGAs you would be SOL for trying to sell it. If Bitcoin's encryption were to fail or if there were some fatal event then this is what would happen. I would rather be holding a graphics card than an FPGA long term.

[CoinSpeculator]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

GPU mining will always be profitable for those in apartments who don't have to pay for electricity. The GPU is easily resold since it is also used for gaming. An FPGA is not so easy to resell and if Bitcoin tanks you are screwed on your invested.

A 3 year ROI is beyond what any business I have ever worked for is willing to risk. ROI is usually 2 or less for corporate investments.

... Free power from your apartment provider is not a sustainable strategy.  You are going to pay a lot more for your apartment, or they are going to kick you out eventually.

FPGA developments move a lot slower than GPU's, my 5830's are worth roughly half of what I bought them for a year ago.  Spartan 6 XL150's will be worth 90% of their current value a year from now.

And obviously you've never worked for a property management company.  ROI on apartment buildings is rarely less than 10 years.  Apple makes tons of technology investments that don't yield results for 10 years.  Ridiculous comment is ridiculous.  Our world is filled with investments with ROI's less than 50%.  The stock market has never yielded a return of 50%.

If you believe Bitcoins are here to stay, FPGA's are the way to go.

[notme]

... Free power from your apartment provider is not a sustainable strategy.  You are going to pay a lot more for your apartment, or they are going to kick you out eventually.

FPGA developments move a lot slower than GPU's, my 5830's are worth roughly half of what I bought them for a year ago.  Spartan 6 XL150's will be worth 90% of their current value a year from now.

And obviously you've never worked for a property management company.  ROI on apartment buildings is rarely less than 10 years.  Apple makes tons of technology investments that don't yield results for 10 years.  Ridiculous comment is ridiculous.  Our world is filled with investments with ROI's less than 50%.  The stock market has never yielded a return of 50%.

If you believe Bitcoins are here to stay, FPGA's are the way to go.

The difference is those markets don't experience a doubling of efficiency every 18 months.  Also, one could argue that $ generated/MH is subject to high volatility.

[bittenbob]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

GPU mining will always be profitable for those in apartments who don't have to pay for electricity. The GPU is easily resold since it is also used for gaming. An FPGA is not so easy to resell and if Bitcoin tanks you are screwed on your invested.

A 3 year ROI is beyond what any business I have ever worked for is willing to risk. ROI is usually 2 or less for corporate investments.

... Free power from your apartment provider is not a sustainable strategy.  You are going to pay a lot more for your apartment, or they are going to kick you out eventually.

FPGA developments move a lot slower than GPU's, my 5830's are worth roughly half of what I bought them for a year ago.  Spartan 6 XL150's will be worth 90% of their current value a year from now.

And obviously you've never worked for a property management company.  ROI on apartment buildings is rarely less than 10 years.  Apple makes tons of technology investments that don't yield results for 10 years.  Ridiculous comment is ridiculous.  Our world is filled with investments with ROI's less than 50%.  The stock market has never yielded a return of 50%.

If you believe Bitcoins are here to stay, FPGA's are the way to go.

Its called the landlord tenant act. My landlord cannot increase my rent more than inflation (they have maxed that out even before I started mining). I also cannot be evicted unless I stop paying my rent. My rent went up 3% this year while my pay hasn't even gone up 1% in 4 years. My landlord is charging less to new tenants than existing ones so I do not feel bad at all about mining. My rig does not draw that much load but if I was running a mining farm that would be a different story.

My experience with 2 year ROI is with every company I have ever worked for and if you think Apple plans to take 10 years to get ROI then you are sorely mistaken. A 10 year ROI from a tech company would be considered an absolute failure. There are many things that have a longer ROI than 2 years but for the most part I can assure you it is not intentional. Property management is a whole different ballgame than mining because for years it was basically guaranteed that the value would increase every year (still has here in Canada). When every company I have worked for demands such a return and refuses to pay more it's no wonder I support the occupy movement. As the other guy said with Bitcoin there is too much volatility to correctly assess ROI on equipment.

[stochastic]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

Don't forget about factoring in depreciation.  For electricity use, talk to some computer scientist or engineering grad students at a local university.  They may be willing to donate some electricity for use.  They are paying over 50% on their grants to the university anyway.

[CoinSpeculator]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

GPU mining will always be profitable for those in apartments who don't have to pay for electricity. The GPU is easily resold since it is also used for gaming. An FPGA is not so easy to resell and if Bitcoin tanks you are screwed on your invested.

A 3 year ROI is beyond what any business I have ever worked for is willing to risk. ROI is usually 2 or less for corporate investments.

... Free power from your apartment provider is not a sustainable strategy.  You are going to pay a lot more for your apartment, or they are going to kick you out eventually.

FPGA developments move a lot slower than GPU's, my 5830's are worth roughly half of what I bought them for a year ago.  Spartan 6 XL150's will be worth 90% of their current value a year from now.

And obviously you've never worked for a property management company.  ROI on apartment buildings is rarely less than 10 years.  Apple makes tons of technology investments that don't yield results for 10 years.  Ridiculous comment is ridiculous.  Our world is filled with investments with ROI's less than 50%.  The stock market has never yielded a return of 50%.

If you believe Bitcoins are here to stay, FPGA's are the way to go.

Its called the landlord tenant act. My landlord cannot increase my rent more than inflation (they have maxed that out even before I started mining). I also cannot be evicted unless I stop paying my rent. My rent went up 3% this year while my pay hasn't even gone up 1% in 4 years. My landlord is charging less to new tenants than existing ones so I do not feel bad at all about mining. My rig does not draw that much load but if I was running a mining farm that would be a different story.

My experience with 2 year ROI is with every company I have ever worked for and if you think Apple plans to take 10 years to get ROI then you are sorely mistaken. A 10 year ROI from a tech company would be considered an absolute failure. There are many things that have a longer ROI than 2 years but for the most part I can assure you it is not intentional. Property management is a whole different ballgame than mining because for years it was basically guaranteed that the value would increase every year (still has here in Canada). When every company I have worked for demands such a return and refuses to pay more it's no wonder I support the occupy movement. As the other guy said with Bitcoin there is too much volatility to correctly assess ROI on equipment.

I promise, if you set up a server farm they can and will kick you out.  Casually running a few cards may not spark this, but that also means you are a trivial part of the network.

If you haven't gotten a raise in 4 years I don't really see why you have any qualifications to tell others about ROI, you are obviously not providing much value to your company and your opinions are null.  Apple started investing in technology for the Ipad many many years ago.  Their investment has clearly paid off today.

[bittenbob]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

GPU mining will always be profitable for those in apartments who don't have to pay for electricity. The GPU is easily resold since it is also used for gaming. An FPGA is not so easy to resell and if Bitcoin tanks you are screwed on your invested.

A 3 year ROI is beyond what any business I have ever worked for is willing to risk. ROI is usually 2 or less for corporate investments.

... Free power from your apartment provider is not a sustainable strategy.  You are going to pay a lot more for your apartment, or they are going to kick you out eventually.

FPGA developments move a lot slower than GPU's, my 5830's are worth roughly half of what I bought them for a year ago.  Spartan 6 XL150's will be worth 90% of their current value a year from now.

And obviously you've never worked for a property management company.  ROI on apartment buildings is rarely less than 10 years.  Apple makes tons of technology investments that don't yield results for 10 years.  Ridiculous comment is ridiculous.  Our world is filled with investments with ROI's less than 50%.  The stock market has never yielded a return of 50%.

If you believe Bitcoins are here to stay, FPGA's are the way to go.

Its called the landlord tenant act. My landlord cannot increase my rent more than inflation (they have maxed that out even before I started mining). I also cannot be evicted unless I stop paying my rent. My rent went up 3% this year while my pay hasn't even gone up 1% in 4 years. My landlord is charging less to new tenants than existing ones so I do not feel bad at all about mining. My rig does not draw that much load but if I was running a mining farm that would be a different story.

My experience with 2 year ROI is with every company I have ever worked for and if you think Apple plans to take 10 years to get ROI then you are sorely mistaken. A 10 year ROI from a tech company would be considered an absolute failure. There are many things that have a longer ROI than 2 years but for the most part I can assure you it is not intentional. Property management is a whole different ballgame than mining because for years it was basically guaranteed that the value would increase every year (still has here in Canada). When every company I have worked for demands such a return and refuses to pay more it's no wonder I support the occupy movement. As the other guy said with Bitcoin there is too much volatility to correctly assess ROI on equipment.

I promise, if you set up a server farm they can and will kick you out.  Casually running a few cards may not spark this, but that also means you are a trivial part of the network.

If you haven't gotten a raise in 4 years I don't really see why you have any qualifications to tell others about ROI, you are obviously not providing much value to your company and your opinions are null.  Apple started investing in technology for the Ipad many many years ago.  Their investment has clearly paid off today.

I said if I were to start a server farm it would be different if you had bothered to read. I provide a lot of value to my company but they dont give a shit and wages have been frozen across the board to the "economy". It doesn't matter if I started a division of the company, made a lab and bring in 30k per month profit because they are greedy pricks. Venture capitalists are this way and that is all there is to it. They exploit everyone at every opportunity. You sure are making one hell of an ass out of yourself by trying to insinuate that I must be worthless somehow and that you are better than me. You must be very popular at parties.

[CoinSpeculator]

I said if I were to start a server farm it would be different if you had bothered to read. I provide a lot of value to my company but they dont give a shit and wages have been frozen across the board to the "economy". It doesn't matter if I started a division of the company, made a lab and bring in 30k per month profit because they are greedy pricks. Venture capitalists are this way and that is all there is to it. They exploit everyone at every opportunity. You sure are making one hell of an ass out of yourself by trying to insinuate that I must be worthless somehow and that you are better than me. You must be very popular at parties.

Start your own company.  The world doesn't cater to your every whim.  Venture Capitalist are the only reason you live in a world as advanced as ours.

I wasn't aware that this forum is now called "how to be popular at parties."