Weekly RSI and PVT (go to FPGA mining)

[ArsenShnurkov]

Weekly RSI is not in "oversold" zone yet. Let's go below $1

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

[bittenbob]

Weekly RSI is not in "oversold" zone yet. Let's go below $1

Keep dreaming.

[ArsenShnurkov]

Keep dreaming.

Oh, I can do!

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

[Crypt_Current]

Keep dreaming.

Oh, I can do!

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

Riiiiiiiiiight... All two or three of the FPGA miners.  Regular miners would shut down en masse, causing the network to become extremely delayed and susceptible to 51% attacks... The end is nigh.

[bittenbob]

Keep dreaming.

Oh, I can do!

Look at the PVT graph. Right now it shows the same tops as when we were at $30.
This mean that $7 is a new local top.

And in principle we can go 95% down as in previous time.
This will give us ~$0.5 per BTC

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

Im afraid the numbers you are looking at are reactionary and not necessarily indicative of future performance. I don't see any similarities except PVT is down slightly due to the drop in price (reactionary). RSI on your chart never even approached overbought so any drops should not be anywhere near as severe.

[ArsenShnurkov]

RSI on your chart never even approached overbought

That's because we didn't end the correction from $30.
Someone decided to provoke the second rally, but failed.
So bitcoin should continue to drop in value to meet it's true price.

so any drops should not be anywhere near as severe.

Some devastating event can be already in the way.
For example like design bug of new OP_EVAL opcode in bitcoin 0.6 client.

[sgbett]

Much as minute by minute view of RSI is not much more than noise, weekly view of RSI or PVT is also noisy due to short timescale of entire lifetime of BTC and the rate of change in market place.

I think RSI and PVT work best at daily scale in this market. But I'm no day trader, just looking to accumulate a bigger long position at good prices, to hold indefinitely.

Just my 2 cents.

[ArsenShnurkov]

I think RSI and PVT work best at daily scale in this market

Daily RSI is not in oversold zone either yet.

[Crypt_Current]

You would do better for short-mid term trading by paying attention to hourly RSI. Do you want to simply wait for price to move one way or the other, or would you rather take advantage of the many profit opportunities that occur while others are waiting it out?

If you know the right answer to that question then you understand why Bitcoin exchange will continue to attract new money...

Can you elaborate on this?  (For those of us less experienced with markets / trading...)  What is the right answer, and why?

[sgbett]

You would do better for short-mid term trading by paying attention to hourly RSI. Do you want to simply wait for price to move one way or the other, or would you rather take advantage of the many profit opportunities that occur while others are waiting it out?

If you know the right answer to that question then you understand why Bitcoin exchange will continue to attract new money...

I'm not a day trader. Hourly is too quick (though it useful to time trade once daily is oversold and I want to catch a down spike). I'm looking for bigger moves over the course of several days/weeks that I can scale in and out of. This suits me better, or I end up trading emotionally.

[Serge]

Arsen, you need to get your gang crew back in here, Edward and Nagle, maybe three of you could collectively push the price down  by $0.1

[sgbett]

Yeah hourly is useful, but I don't know as it is *more* useful (to me at least) i.e. regardless of what hourly says right now, I'm not planning on increasing position unless the daily predicates it. If the daily commands I buy though, I might then use the hourly to confirm an entry point.

In reality though its not as cut and dry as that because I'm biased towards long term accumulation, so in actual fact I have orders (of increasing dollar size) all the way down the order book. I'll then only scale out (and not fully) when things start looking overbought again - but purely with the intention of recycling those dollars into more BTC if/when it dips.

[chsados]

You would do better for short-mid term trading by paying attention to hourly RSI. Do you want to simply wait for price to move one way or the other, or would you rather take advantage of the many profit opportunities that occur while others are waiting it out?

If you know the right answer to that question then you understand why Bitcoin exchange will continue to attract new money...

I'm not a day trader. Hourly is too quick (though it useful to time trade once daily is oversold and I want to catch a down spike). I'm looking for bigger moves over the course of several days/weeks that I can scale in and out of. This suits me better, or I end up trading emotionally.

Then you are a 'swing trader'. In that case you should still find the hourly RSI a lot more useful to you than the weekly RSI.

where do you find hourly RSI?  i only see daily on bitcoincharts

[sgbett]

change time period from 'auto' to hourly...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSIzv

[chsados]

change time period from 'auto' to hourly...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSIzv

thx

For example... As you can see it does not always signal a short term price increase but it does so frequently.

hmmmm

[trogdorjw73]

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

This is silliness.

How can you ignore the initial investment to own an FPGA miner? Hardware is free? Time is free? Also, what if I want 700 Bitcoins today, and not .03 that I get from my FPGA miner? What if I don't know how to run an FPGA miner?

This. $550 or so for a single FPGA card that can then mine at a rate of .24 BTC per day given the *current* difficulty. Let's say you pay on average $0.10 per kWh, and the entire system to run a single FPGA card will use roughly 50W, so around $0.12 per day for power. (But if you're running multiple cards, the cost in electricity should go down.) If price ($6.20) and difficulty stay static (which is a really big IF!), then you will earn approximately $1.37 per day from an FPGA setup. At that rate, you can recoup the cost of the hardware investment in only 401 days. Of course, price and difficulty aren't static, and if you think the BTC price is too high right now and it were to drop to say $2 (after all, you said you could make money at just $0.35 per BTC), well, at $2 per BTC it would require approximately four years to pay off the hardware.

TL;DR: The only way FPGA mining makes sense is if either the hardware costs drop significantly, or the price of BTC goes up significantly.

[bittenbob]

This will be ok for FPGA miners, because they spent only $0.35 per BTC for energy and maintenance (and the difficulty will be lower than now).

This is silliness.

How can you ignore the initial investment to own an FPGA miner? Hardware is free? Time is free? Also, what if I want 700 Bitcoins today, and not .03 that I get from my FPGA miner? What if I don't know how to run an FPGA miner?

This. $550 or so for a single FPGA card that can then mine at a rate of .24 BTC per day given the *current* difficulty. Let's say you pay on average $0.10 per kWh, and the entire system to run a single FPGA card will use roughly 50W, so around $0.12 per day for power. (But if you're running multiple cards, the cost in electricity should go down.) If price ($6.20) and difficulty stay static (which is a really big IF!), then you will earn approximately $1.37 per day from an FPGA setup. At that rate, you can recoup the cost of the hardware investment in only 401 days. Of course, price and difficulty aren't static, and if you think the BTC price is too high right now and it were to drop to say $2 (after all, you said you could make money at just $0.35 per BTC), well, at $2 per BTC it would require approximately four years to pay off the hardware.

TL;DR: The only way FPGA mining makes sense is if either the hardware costs drop significantly, or the price of BTC goes up significantly.

+∞

I wish someone would pass this on to those who think a price drop below $2 would herald a grand age of FPGA mining. Simple fact is you must take ROI into account and the lower the price of bitcoin the less sense it makes to invest in such technology.

[CoinSpeculator]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

[bittenbob]

Low prices support FPGA's long term.  Below about $2, no GPU miners are making any money.  3 year ROI is 33% a year.  Show me any other investment with that potential.  FPGA's are going to dominate mining growth from here on.

GPU mining will always be profitable for those in apartments who don't have to pay for electricity. The GPU is easily resold since it is also used for gaming. An FPGA is not so easy to resell and if Bitcoin tanks you are screwed on your invested.

A 3 year ROI is beyond what any business I have ever worked for is willing to risk. ROI is usually 2 or less for corporate investments.

[chsados]

dont FPGA's hold high resell value?