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Author Topic: Bear Thread!  (Read 2369 times)
antoineph
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January 19, 2012, 05:28:38 AM
 #21

Bear Vs. Bull  Claws always win.

lol..piercing gashing dagger horns count for nothing?

maybe he means the dollar bears will win.
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jojo69
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January 19, 2012, 05:58:59 AM
 #22

I am heavily bearish for the next 30 minutes

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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January 19, 2012, 11:51:17 AM
 #23

If I have to take an impulsive guess, I'd say it needs a miracle within days now. Stall warning. Stall warning. Stall warning...

Longest the market ever managed in this state was more than two weeks in July. Do I have to remind people of the outcome of that glorious idea? Let it go, there is no rally coming, finally stop the mania or the bust will deepen! Even if someone with enough money comes and for whatever unlikely reason starts a rally, what happens once that person runs out? Can everyone simultaneously sell into him?

But it may already be too late, they pushed so far by now that I can't tell anymore.
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January 19, 2012, 12:13:17 PM
 #24

If I have to take an impulsive guess, I'd say it needs a miracle within days now. Stall warning. Stall warning. Stall warning...

Longest the market ever managed in this state was more than two weeks in July. Do I have to remind people of the outcome of that glorious idea? Let it go, there is no rally coming, finally stop the mania or the bust will deepen! Even if someone with enough money comes and for whatever unlikely reason starts a rally, what happens once that person runs out? Can everyone simultaneously sell into him?

But it may already be too late, they pushed so far by now that I can't tell anymore.

I don't understand your sentiment. Yes, we had a correction after irrational bullishness. Is the longer term trend broken? Not yet, as I see it. I think of the last 2 weeks as the inverse of the dips we've seen on the way down during july - november.

Already after $5.5 I was expecting a period of correction to kick in but then it went even higher. So no surprise that this happened. I just regret not selling a bit while it was at $7.2 anyway.

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SkRRJyTC
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January 19, 2012, 12:26:12 PM
 #25

Im not usually a bear but I think we need to test $5 more seriously before taking off again.
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January 19, 2012, 01:07:52 PM
 #26

Im not usually a bear but I think we need to test $5 more seriously before taking off again.

Translation: Someone please sell me some $5 Bitcoin. LOL
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January 19, 2012, 01:10:27 PM
 #27

Im not usually a bear but I think we need to test $5 more seriously before taking off again.

Translation: Someone please sell me some $5 Bitcoin. LOL

Nah I dont trade too much, Im mostly a mine and hold kind of guy.  I do have a small short position on bitcoinica right now... but its a tiny percentage of my holdings.
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January 19, 2012, 01:22:36 PM
 #28


Volatility is good for growth, as long as nobody with a lot of bitcoins decides to spike it clear to the ground.  I don't know why anyone would do that.


This looks like a foolproof way to skim the gamblers. And lay the foundation for sustainable growth. Volatility is poison.

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January 19, 2012, 01:55:54 PM
 #29

I see no reason to be overly bearish. I can see the reasoning for expecting a bigger correction but it might not be happening. Bitcoin got the single biggest boost since June thanks to the Good Wife episode, now it seems to be spawning a good amount of articles among law professionals. Which is interesting.

This is countered by the Bitcoinica episode and I didn't like the new Mt. Gox AML policy either but these are not a reason to despair. The Bitcoinica episode would've happened eventually anyway, it's actually good that it happened when the market was as bullish as it was. Now the market is more in a neutral situation in my opinion and it's unlikely that it will change to more bearish instead of more bullish.

Attention feeds new attention which means we will see a lot of other news spawn from the Good Wife episode, it's very unlikely that it'll be just a lonely spike amongst nothing. The bearish scenario is that we get more crap like the Bitcoinica event that increases the doubts some people have right now. Overall it's simply more likely that we'll see more good news in the short term future.

Vandroiy was right about the dip but these things are such that no one is always right. Even the best are only right maybe 60% of the time. I feel it's certainly possible that we'll bounce back to low $5's but find it very unlikely that we could go lower than that. The overall bullishness was not countered that hard by the Bitcoinica event.

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Vandroiy
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January 19, 2012, 07:05:03 PM
 #30

I don't understand your sentiment. Yes, we had a correction after irrational bullishness. Is the longer term trend broken? Not yet, as I see it. I think of the last 2 weeks as the inverse of the dips we've seen on the way down during july - november.

Already after $5.5 I was expecting a period of correction to kick in but then it went even higher. So no surprise that this happened. I just regret not selling a bit while it was at $7.2 anyway.

You are aware that a trend is nothing but a line that happens to be on some chart? If you valued Bitcoin below 5.5 USD weeks ago, what changes your sentiment this much in such a short time?



@Technomage: I see the problem exactly in the fact that a possibly over-the-top bullishness is still there, which unlocks BTC sell-offs when it ends, and the fact that everybody is hyping short-time events that are supposed to bring in speculators ASAP, or something. And post stuff about trend-lines, best on logscale again. It's bound to over-shoot, and now would be a befitting time for a reversal due to the current chaos. (And simply because I think activity is kind of low compared to the volume*price rise we're facing these times)
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January 19, 2012, 08:08:51 PM
 #31


Volatility is good for growth, as long as nobody with a lot of bitcoins decides to spike it clear to the ground.  I don't know why anyone would do that.


This looks like a foolproof way to skim the gamblers. And lay the foundation for sustainable growth. Volatility is poison.

It's only foolproof if you have tons of bitcoins to throw away (it would take over 1/8 of all bitcoins to make it to 0.01, assuming only visible orders on mtgox).  Sustainable growth is happening... it's just won't be smooth so long as 1% of any other market can move this one by 50%.  Bitcoin doesn't exist independently from the rest of the world's economics.  Some of the best medicines are poisonous in larger doses.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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