Rally starting at 4 pm EST

[Technomage]

There is a mini-rally going on right now.

[cypherdoc]

There is a mini-rally going on right now.

well, i did say small.

i forgot to say that it takes them a few minutes to roll their computers over to the Bitcoin room.

[Oldminer]

Dont forget though the weekends coming 

[da2ce7]

Dont forget though the weekends coming 

"Bitcoin always goes down on the weeken, get your cheap coins on the weekend!"

[notme]

Dont forget though the weekends coming 

"Bitcoin always goes down on the weeken, get your cheap coins on the weekend!"

Except when it rallies on the weekend.

[cypherdoc]

i'll be d*mned.  they got back from the Pub early.

[proudhon]

Just over $1.5 million in bids right now.

[proudhon]

I don't understand why all this money has decided to shows itself right now.  Maybe this is new money?

[waspoza]

Just over $1.5 million in bids right now.

New all time high?

[cypherdoc]

That type of correlation has popped up and faded away several times in the past... I've made a study of it.

All totaled, it is not terribly reliable to try and base Bitcoin on the price movement of stocks.

actually i could make a theoretical case by which it would make sense that this phenomenon would occur.

Bitcoin, being the small cap like high risk investment it is, would be subject to the liquidity existing in the system.  afterall, it was invented to protect adopters from the devaluation shenanigans of the central banks.

the Dow is also highly sensitive to this liquidity pump.  as we can see, it is rallying from oversold levels and extreme pessimism in the general economy.  stocks appear to have been right and debt markets appear to have been wrong since late last year.  this is contrary to the classical wisdom of the last 4 years and is causing all sorts of cognitive dissonance in traders psyche.  i've written about this extensively in my blog.  the rise in the USD has also been a conundrum for all except those following my lead.

the Dow can be thought of as the General fighting its way up the Wall of Worry with the troops (the Russell, NDX, Transports, S&P, techs, fins) all just now following its lead.  why should Bitcoin be any different?  as the Dow closes UP at 4pm, it might make sense for traders from other markets, including traders like us, to take its lead and pump up Bitcoin as a result.  the Dow is predicting QE3 i'm sure. 

and so is Bitcoin.

[proudhon]

Just over $1.5 million in bids right now.

New all time high?

As far as I know.  Certainly a new high over the time period I've been watching it ( a few weeks now)

[cypherdoc]

That type of correlation has popped up and faded away several times in the past... I've made a study of it.

All totaled, it is not terribly reliable to try and base Bitcoin on the price movement of stocks.

actually i could make a theoretical case by which it would make sense that this phenomenon would occur.

Bitcoin, being the small cap like high risk investment it is, would be subject to the liquidity existing in the system.  afterall, it was invented to protect adopters from the devaluation shenanigans of the central banks.

the Dow is also highly sensitive to this liquidity pump.  as we can see, it is rallying from oversold levels and extreme pessimism in the general economy.  stocks appear to have been right and debt markets appear to have been wrong since late last year.  this is contrary to the classical wisdom of the last 4 years and is causing all sorts of cognitive dissonance in traders psyche.  i've written about this extensively in my blog.  the rise in the USD has also been a conundrum for all except those following my lead.

the Dow can be thought of as the General fighting its way up the Wall of Worry with the troops (the Russell, NDX, Transports, S&P, techs, fins) all just now following its lead.  why should Bitcoin be any different?  as the Dow closes UP at 4pm, it might make sense for traders from other markets, including traders like us, to take its lead and pump up Bitcoin as a result.  the Dow is predicting QE3 i'm sure. 

and so is Bitcoin.

I understand the rationale. But from an empirical standpoint a correlation with stocks has not proven to be durable.

it would be great to see your methodology.

but just offhand, when last year did the Dow start turning down?  May

when did Bitcoin begin its downturn?  June.

when did the Dow start turning back up?  October.

when did Bitcoin make the turn?  November.

[notme]

it would be great to see your methodology.

but just offhand, when last year did the Dow start turning down?  May

when did Bitcoin begin its downturn?  June.

when did the Dow start turning back up?  October.

when did Bitcoin make the turn?  November.

That is interesting, but of course we don't have enough bitcoin history to be able to say anything with a decent level of confidence.

[cypherdoc]

it would be great to see your methodology.

but just offhand, when last year did the Dow start turning down?  May

when did Bitcoin begin its downturn?  June.

when did the Dow start turning back up?  October.

when did Bitcoin make the turn?  November.

That is interesting, but of course we don't have enough bitcoin history to be able to say anything with a decent level of confidence.

actually it would be fair to say both bottomed in October.

[Technomage]

Quite a decent rally afterall, we broke through the 24h high which is something. I feel there is some pressure to go up. It speaks of an overall very bullish market that we're recovering so well.

[cypherdoc]

Quite a decent rally afterall, we broke through the 24h high which is something. I feel there is some pressure to go up. It speaks of an overall very bullish market that we're recovering so well.

this is what happens after everyone gets taken out and shot.  the thread with the guy who wants to buy but can't is so typical.

we are entering Wave 3 up and most here will be left behind.

[jojo69]

if this keeps up we are going to test the recent downtrend around 6.4-6.45

[cypherdoc]

remember what happens if the Dow ends UP.

[cypherdoc]

Essentially, nothing has changed since January 5, there have been no new net dollars coming in. I see no reason to be anything but neutral in the short-mid term. But if you are long term bullish it is a great time to buy on the dips.

do you measure net dollars based on the mtgox order book?

[legitnick]

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