Crypto-currencies in 10 years

[jonald_fyookball]

hundreds of cryptosurrencies will go away and only 2-3 of them will remane. They will become popular worldwide

which of the already existing currencies will become popular in your opinion?

I'm pretty sure one of them will be bitcoin. Other could be completely new

NEM. 

 I believe that bitcoin is replaceable by another, with the price there on high, he probably worth some ten thousand, becomes merely speculative, because who accept a coin of 10 - 100K which has a range of hundreds of USDs every minute?

A coin that has a control deflation/inflation, price stability, fair distributed between big part of the population of the earth would be what one might call Ideal Money.

who is to say what is "fair distributed"?

[MrWDunne]

I guess here is an argument against Litecoin: https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools
They are closing in on a mining pool which has more then 51% of the mining.

a 51% hashrate just means the 'possibility' that the mining pool owner can inject nasty code and get accepted. it does not mean a guarantee of attack as the mining pool owner can easily be honourable, own 99% of hash power but never change the code and everything will be fine

No, that is not true at all.

[Lauda]

They'll probably be gone and replaced by something else.

No they won't. If you think about the top coins now, maybe, maybe not. Crypto-currencies are for the future and here to stay.

[jonald_fyookball]

They'll probably be gone and replaced by something else.

No they won't. If you think about the top coins now, maybe, maybe not. Crypto-currencies are for the future and here to stay.

Yeah , there's something fundamental about this invention
and its hard to picture what, if anything, could be "next".

Kind of like the Internet -- will it ever be replaced?
Will electricity be replaced by something else?
Will the wheel ever be replaced?

[Beliathon]

The future belongs to those who trust observation and deduction.

[jonald_fyookball]

Nice art.

[Pente]

Smaller cryptocoins might be viable in specific fields.

+1

[Lauda]

They'll probably be gone and replaced by something else.

No they won't. If you think about the top coins now, maybe, maybe not. Crypto-currencies are for the future and here to stay.

Yeah , there's something fundamental about this invention
and its hard to picture what, if anything, could be "next".

Kind of like the Internet -- will it ever be replaced?
Will electricity be replaced by something else?
Will the wheel ever be replaced?

It most likely won't in the near future. At least I think so. You (and we all) will see that. Technology and innovation is not moving as fast as it should be.

[jonald_fyookball]

Which one, the wheel? 

[clout]

everyone uses decentralized banks so that crypto currencies have the purchsing power of whatever asset you want. every store accepts crypto currencies.

[LiteCoinGuy]

only Litecoin exists. Charles Lee will be the president of china and we will all look like dogs.

[E-C.Guru]

Something is only worth as much as everyone agrees it's worth as much. I can declare that my $1 monopoly money is worth USD1000, but, would the rest of the world pay USD1000 for my $1 monopoly dollar?

No. But if you and your 1000 friends all agreed on that NuffCoin is worth 10 dollar you can all trade with eachother using a NuffCoin thats worth 10 dollar. If someone sells their share for an outside currency that don't have to affect the group of 999 individuals at all. It just means they changed 1 share-holder to another. Closed e-currencies will be a reality, trust me. Just like countries today close their markets for outside manipulation and take-over same will happen with e-currencies.

If a small group agrees that 1 NuffCoin is worth 10 dollars, and uses this system to trade balances between group members, then how is NuffCoin different than an accounting system?  And what prevents there price from diverging from 10 dollars?  Are NuffCoins backed somehow?

Can you explain the value proposition of these private e-coins in more detail?

Not really sure what an accounting system is, sorry

It really doesn't have to stay at 10 dollars or any fixed value, most likely it wouldnt. If it's a group of 1000 working people their collective value should rise every day, if they put in 1 extra hour of work every day on top of being self-sustained.

I don't deal with details I'm afraid, I'm a Guru not a scientist. Imagine if for example Auroracoin would start being used by all people on Iceland. That would make it possible for them to start putting their savings in their own e-currency, right? That would lead to a "bubble" as soon as it started, ofcourse. Even without outsiders interfering. Anyway, why would they want outsiders to be able to withdraw holdings of Auroracoins when the value rises? And, why would they want to let outsiders be able to manipulate the price and sucking out value?

edit:
just look at todays currencies and economys. They are being protected in many many countries. Just not USA and EU(All rich countries basically).

/Guru

[zimmah]

Will be replaced by the next great innovation and will watch their market share dwindle down to nothing.

MySpace is a company, Bitcoin is a protocol

The internet is a protocol, nothing similar to the internet preceded it and nothing similar will replace it. The protocol will simply be updated.

Same will happen with bitcoin, the protocol will be updated where necessary and nothing needs to replace it.

The infrastructure around bitcoin is too large to just be replaced every few years, it took years to build and it's far from complete. No way merchants, banks, exchanges etc. will change to the newest altcoin all the time just for some random functionality that bitcoin doesn't have but the altcoin does or claims to have, it will be far too costly, it's far easier to just update the bitcoin protocol and no infrastructure needs to be changed drastically.

[QuestionAuthority]

Will be replaced by the next great innovation and will watch their market share dwindle down to nothing.

MySpace is a company, Bitcoin is a protocol

The internet is a protocol, nothing similar to the internet preceded it and nothing similar will replace it. The protocol will simply be updated.

Same will happen with bitcoin, the protocol will be updated where necessary and nothing needs to replace it.

The infrastructure around bitcoin is too large to just be replaced every few years, it took years to build and it's far from complete. No way merchants, banks, exchanges etc. will change to the newest altcoin all the time just for some random functionality that bitcoin doesn't have but the altcoin does or claims to have, it will be far too costly, it's far easier to just update the bitcoin protocol and no infrastructure needs to be changed drastically.

Doesn't matter. People are fickle. The newness will wear off and something else will come along or something will happen that makes people want to move on. The infrastructure for WAMU and many other banks was too big to be replaced too. Except they're gone.

[clout]

Will be replaced by the next great innovation and will watch their market share dwindle down to nothing.

MySpace is a company, Bitcoin is a protocol

The internet is a protocol, nothing similar to the internet preceded it and nothing similar will replace it. The protocol will simply be updated.

Same will happen with bitcoin, the protocol will be updated where necessary and nothing needs to replace it.

The infrastructure around bitcoin is too large to just be replaced every few years, it took years to build and it's far from complete. No way merchants, banks, exchanges etc. will change to the newest altcoin all the time just for some random functionality that bitcoin doesn't have but the altcoin does or claims to have, it will be far too costly, it's far easier to just update the bitcoin protocol and no infrastructure needs to be changed drastically.

Bitcoin is a peer2peer network that has a protocol, just like the internet is a network that has a protocol. These are organization and their protocol is their governing structure, in the same way that governments and companies have their own constitutions.

For you to say that nothing similar to the internet preceded it is fundamentally wrong, it simple produces more value than any of its antecedents.

Also you clearly are not aware of the tech behind the infrastructure of bitcoin. It is trivial to replace bitcoin with an alternative. There is nothing costly about it. What is not trivial is updating the bitcoin protocol... not because of the coding required but because of politics.

[clout]

Will be replaced by the next great innovation and will watch their market share dwindle down to nothing.

MySpace is a company, Bitcoin is a protocol

The internet is a protocol, nothing similar to the internet preceded it and nothing similar will replace it. The protocol will simply be updated.

Same will happen with bitcoin, the protocol will be updated where necessary and nothing needs to replace it.

The infrastructure around bitcoin is too large to just be replaced every few years, it took years to build and it's far from complete. No way merchants, banks, exchanges etc. will change to the newest altcoin all the time just for some random functionality that bitcoin doesn't have but the altcoin does or claims to have, it will be far too costly, it's far easier to just update the bitcoin protocol and no infrastructure needs to be changed drastically.

Doesn't matter. People are fickle. The newness will wear off and something else will come along or something will happen that makes people want to move on. The infrastructure for WAMU and many other banks was too big to be replaced too. Except they're gone.

Actually WAMU wasn't replaced it was absorbed into chase.

[E-C.Guru]

ton of text

/Guru

I apologize for putting so little time in explaining that 1. Put it together in a retarded way. THe knowledege is there to pick up though, at least if you're a cryptographer 

[jkljb]

They'll probably be gone and replaced by something else.

No they won't. If you think about the top coins now, maybe, maybe not. Crypto-currencies are for the future and here to stay.

Yeah , there's something fundamental about this invention
and its hard to picture what, if anything, could be "next".

Kind of like the Internet -- will it ever be replaced?
Will electricity be replaced by something else?
Will the wheel ever be replaced?

It most likely won't in the near future. At least I think so. You (and we all) will see that. Technology and innovation is not moving as fast as it should be.

In this case, "something" may be replaced by a better version, whereas the bitcoin is a concept and not a "product".

The internet (WWW) and P2P are not the same thing? If not, the second is better than the first.

The electricity: First came the Direct Current, which was replaced by the Alternate Current.

The wheel already exist trains that rely on magnetism.

hundreds of cryptosurrencies will go away and only 2-3 of them will remane. They will become popular worldwide

which of the already existing currencies will become popular in your opinion?

I'm pretty sure one of them will be bitcoin. Other could be completely new

NEM. 

 I believe that bitcoin is replaceable by another, with the price there on high, he probably worth some ten thousand, becomes merely speculative, because who accept a coin of 10 - 100K which has a range of hundreds of USDs every minute?

A coin that has a control deflation/inflation, price stability, fair distributed between big part of the population of the earth would be what one might call Ideal Money.

who is to say what is "fair distributed"?

This site can tell http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100

[Peter R]

Will be replaced by the next great innovation and will watch their market share dwindle down to nothing.

MySpace is a company, Bitcoin is a protocol

The internet is a protocol, nothing similar to the internet preceded it and nothing similar will replace it. The protocol will simply be updated.

Same will happen with bitcoin, the protocol will be updated where necessary and nothing needs to replace it.

The infrastructure around bitcoin is too large to just be replaced every few years, it took years to build and it's far from complete. No way merchants, banks, exchanges etc. will change to the newest altcoin all the time just for some random functionality that bitcoin doesn't have but the altcoin does or claims to have, it will be far too costly, it's far easier to just update the bitcoin protocol and no infrastructure needs to be changed drastically.

I think you can go even further.  Bitcoin is both a payment system (nodes, miners, protocol) and a ledger of stored value (distribution of wealth encoded in the blockchain).  Even in the unlikely event that something was found lacking in the payment system at some point in the future, people wouldn't tear up the ledger at the same time.  They would instead use this ledger to boot-strap the new payment system / currency.  The average user would only be lightly inconvenienced.  

The blockchain is an unforgeable global ledger with 21 trillion "spots" on it.  Each spot is 1 bit.  You can prove ownership of these spots by producing an ECDSA signature with your private key, and you can reassign these spots to different people the same way.  People are willing to trade real goods in exchange for spots on this ledger because they know someone else will trade them goods at a later date in return for those spots.  So these "spots" on the big global ledger are a universal tool that makes bartering easier (they solve the double coincidence-of-wants problem).  

When viewed from this perspective it becomes more clear that the "newness" of the blockchain is actually a negative.  In fact, as it becomes more "boring" it actually becomes more legitimate and harder to tear apart or abandon.  When we finally stop even thinking about what those spots on that unforgeable global ledger are, and we just accept it as "money," then it will be as entrenched as it can be.  

The only reason the economic majority would want to abandon the dominant global ledger is if it was no longer perceived as legitimate.  If it becomes clear to the people of the world that the distribution of wealth encoded by the blockchain is hurting rather than helping mankind, then they will abandon it for a new ledger.  This would be a sort-of jubilee mechanism.  Since bitcoin can still grow by at least 3 orders of magnitude and there is very little bitcoin-denominated debt, something like this would be a long long ways away.    

[morrisonsa]

Thoughts?

Watch the movie "In Time"...that will be cryptos.