How does one calculate return at given difficulty/hashrate

[Biontic]

I've been trawling and have turned up some interesting techniques for calculating various values, most offer the ability to calc the solo mining return, or the time to solve a block.

I am trying to calculate the daily return with known hashrate and difficulty. Appreciate any helpful input.

[1714162549]

1714162549

[1714162549]

1714162549

[1714162549]

1714162549

[greenlion]

A convenient way is go to

http://blockexplorer.com/q/probability

That webservices link returns the probability of any given hash being successful based on the current difficulty.

Your hashrate expressed as hashes/s multiplied by 86400 seconds in a day tells you how many tries you get to solve a block every day.

If we call those P and H, based on the expected value theorem your average BTC income per day (not counting tx fees or pool fees, which could be estimated in if desired) --

P * H * 86400 * 25

P * H * 86400 itself basically tells you what fraction of a block on average per day you would win

[jonnybravo0311]

To show you a real world example...

I have 400GH/s mining BTC.  Therefore, at current difficulty of 8,853,416,309 the formula is:

Difficulty * 2**32 / hashrate / 86400 = number of days to solve a block

So...

8,853,416,309 * 2**32 / 400000000000 / 86400 = 1100.26427966

This means that I can expect to earn 25BTC just about every 3 years.  To find out how much per day, you just take 25 and divide it by the number of days expected to solve the block:

25/1100.26427966 = 0.02272181BTC per day.

Hope this helps!

[Biontic]

WOW - perfect, exactly what I was after - thank you both so much!

[cryptcollector]

This is exactly what I've been looking for, but does this formula apply to all coins?

I mean if you change the coins per block will it apply to both sha and scrypt? Or does the 2**32 need to be changed for other coins too?

[R4v37]

i dont calculate
i pray... 

for me, i'm using calculator, like from alloscomp or bitwisdom
its just a theory, not the exact number, only luck can help you