EDIT:
Latest version.td;dr. I describe previous crashes and attempt to make a prediction for the next crash. Here are the basic predictions -- some of these are pretty legit, others are more speculative.
* The next peak will probably be around 7,500, but can be anywhere from 4,400 to 13,000.
This should happen by October 2014. Could be a hot summer... :-)
* Afte that, price will crash down to 2,300. This will likely occur in mid December 2014 - or as late as May 2015.
* This price (2,300) will be reached less than a month before the crash. IOW, in less than a month, it will go from 2,300 to whereever the moon is.
EDIT:
Reconsidering after receiving feedback, the next peak should be closer to mid-January 2015.
The crashes so far. pk.date pk.price tr.date tr.price drop ft.date ft.price n.dest n.be
1 2010-07-19 0.09 2010-07-24 0.05 44.4 2010-07-27 0.06 NA 83
2 2010-11-07 0.36 2010-12-10 0.19 47.2 2010-12-11 0.22 11 68
3 2011-02-14 1.06 2011-04-05 0.67 36.8 2011-04-07 0.75 14 62
4 2011-06-09 29.6 2011-11-18 2.14 92.8 2011-11-24 2.42 42 617
5 2013-04-09 215 2013-04-16 65.3 69.6 2013-07-08 77 17 209
6 2013-11-30 1,130 2014-04-11 392 65.4 2014-05-07 441 17 NA
* pk = peak, tr = trough
* ft = "foot". According to my simplistic algorithm, this is when the next move up begins.
** Trough and foot for the current crash are provisional.
* n.dest = number of days of gains (prior to the peak) that were destroyed in the crash
* n.be = number of days to break even if you boughts at the peak
* Six crashes in almost 4 years. That's an average of 1 or 2 crashes per year.
* Current drop is similar to the one for the 2013-04-09 crash.
* n.dest is exactly the same as for the 2013-04-09 crash.
* n.be: If the last crash is any guide, we have about 40 days for the price to increase 2.5 times. Will the price finally start rising?
Predictive ratios and durations. Based on the above table, you can calculate lots of different ratios and durations. To me, these are interesting only if they have or might have some predictive value. I figured if a ratio or a duration is about the same for the past six crashes, it might hold up in the future. Here is what I've come up with, in order of possible predictive value.
pk.date pk.price r.tr.pk1 r.pk.pk n.pk.pk n.dest n.tr.ft n.ft.ft
1 2010-07-19 0.09 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2 2010-11-07 0.36 2.11 4 111 11 136 137
3 2011-02-14 1.06 1.86 2.94 99 14 115 117
4 2011-06-09 29.6 2.02 27.9 115 42 219 225
5 2013-04-09 215 2.21 7.26 664 17 509 592
6 2013-11-30 1,130 1.83 5.27 235 17 277 303
* r.tr.pk1 = the trough price of the current crash divided by the peak price of the
previous crash. This is the most consistent measure that I've found so far. Thank you
nastybit.
* r.xx.yy = ratio of xx to yy. n.xx.yy = number of days from yy to xx.
Based on this, here are predictions for what these could be in the next crash. Again, I think items closer to the top of the list are more reliable. Those closer to the bottom are more speculative. r.tr.pk1 stands out as looking very reliable.
name p_25 p_50 p_75
1 r.tr.pk1 1.9 2 2.1
2 n.pk.pk 112 182 294
3 r.pk.pk 3.9 6.61 11.2
4 n.dest 13 17 25.3
5 n.tr.ft 129 219 354
* Based on r.tr.pk1, the trough after the next crash should be somewhere between 2,200 and 2,400.
* Based on r.pk.pk, the next peak will probably be 7,500, but can be anywhere from 4,400 to 13,000.
*
Based on n.pk.pk, the next peak should have happened already, but can happen as late as the latter part of September 2014. Could be a hot summer... :-)
* n.dest: Just like the current and the previous crash, the next crash is likely to destroy about 17 days of gains.
* n.tr.ft: The next trough will likely occur in mid December 2014 - or as late as May 2015.
Previous version. here
