Here we go

[inca]

So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't?  :-)

We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...

I am getting excited :-)

Rather late to the party aren't you?

Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out.

I think you are the only bear still posting since we broke out.

I have been buying heavily down in the low 4xx's. It will be interesting to see how far this runs before it stalls and pulls back. I would be surprised if this is actual beginning of the next bull rally - seems a bit too easy tbh. Here is hoping we do get back up to the 8xx's on this run though. 

Did you buy back in Mat?

[int03h]

So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't?  :-)

We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...

I am getting excited :-)

Rather late to the party aren't you?

Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out.

I am also heavily bearish. Nevermind the TA - most of the liquidity in the Bitcoin economy has been killed off by the mega and very serious miners. All they doing is turning electricity into heat right now and flipping bitcoins for more hardware to stay in the race to the bottom. Time/Block is still around 8 minutes which means we are still at 11-12 day retargets so ~20% diff increases. The curve is not flattening .. till it does I don't see any reason for the price to recover. (Yes I am linking Diff to Price - in my opinion they are linked - although not directly or very predictably ). mt.gox disaster is not finished and neither is the Shrem and SR horseshit either.

PS: TA is like making toast and seeing Jesus .. all it takes is bread and a toaster and a propensity for seeing Jesus in everything because that all you are thinking about. Likewise with TA : just use the zoom button / or change time resolution and you will find a picture you like.

And before someone jumps on me and says " Well mining isn't everything in the Bitcoin economy " - no it isn't. But it's what drove it in the past.

EDIT: To be a bit melodramatic : I am actually rather depressed about it all - all the fun has been destroyed. Now it's just a super inconvenient way to pay for shit.

[tuneman1980]

So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't?  :-)

We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...

I am getting excited :-)

Rather late to the party aren't you?

Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out.

I am also heavily bearish. Nevermind the TA - most of the liquidity in the Bitcoin economy has been killed off by the mega and very serious miners. All they doing is turning electricity into heat right now and flipping bitcoins for more hardware to stay in the race to the bottom. Time/Block is still around 8 minutes which means we are still at 11-12 day retargets so ~20% diff increases. The curve is not flattening .. till it does I don't see any reason for the price to recover. (Yes I am linking Diff to Price - in my opinion they are linked - although not directly or very predictably ). mt.gox disaster is not finished and neither is the Shrem and SR horseshit either.

PS: TA is like making toast and seeing Jesus .. all it takes is bread and a toaster and a propensity for seeing Jesus in everything because that all you are thinking about. Likewise with TA : just use the zoom button / or change time resolution and you will find a picture you like.

And before someone jumps on me and says " Well mining isn't everything in the Bitcoin economy " - no it isn't. But it's what drove it in the past.

There definitely is a link between difficulty and price: http://cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php

I'm still struggling to identify exactly what it is though.  Is it a leading indicator or a trailing indicator of price.  Are they inversely correlated?

[int03h]

So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't?  :-)

We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...

I am getting excited :-)

Rather late to the party aren't you?

Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out.

I am also heavily bearish. Nevermind the TA - most of the liquidity in the Bitcoin economy has been killed off by the mega and very serious miners. All they doing is turning electricity into heat right now and flipping bitcoins for more hardware to stay in the race to the bottom. Time/Block is still around 8 minutes which means we are still at 11-12 day retargets so ~20% diff increases. The curve is not flattening .. till it does I don't see any reason for the price to recover. (Yes I am linking Diff to Price - in my opinion they are linked - although not directly or very predictably ). mt.gox disaster is not finished and neither is the Shrem and SR horseshit either.

PS: TA is like making toast and seeing Jesus .. all it takes is bread and a toaster and a propensity for seeing Jesus in everything because that all you are thinking about. Likewise with TA : just use the zoom button / or change time resolution and you will find a picture you like.

And before someone jumps on me and says " Well mining isn't everything in the Bitcoin economy " - no it isn't. But it's what drove it in the past.

There definitely is a link between difficulty and price: http://cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php

I'm still struggling to identify exactly what it is though.  Is it a leading indicator or a trailing indicator of price.  Are they inversely correlated?

Simple answer : Either/Neither and Both.

I personally believe hectic difficulty drives up price - but availability of hardware drives it down - or at least it did in the past. It used to be a leading indicator when hardware was NOT available. But now that there are any number of choices to attack the current difficulty and potentially break even we are stalled. Your question is simple the answer is not.

(and everyone else is just holding - while this goes on)

EDIT: That difficulty tracker doesn't show the full picture from genesis. Someone needs to do a time from genesis price/diff overlay graph.

[MatTheCat]

Did you buy back in Mat?

Nope.

Bought in at $460, sold at $520, anticipating an imminent correction and then I have to see things are looking from there.

.....and who said I am bearish?

Right now I am undecided on the longer term and am verging on undecided/bullish over the medium term. Obviously I was bullish enough to buy in at $460 and bullish enough to tell someone (sharkyshark) that shorting Bitcoin at $500 was a very bad idea.

[oda.krell]

So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't?  :-)

We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...

I am getting excited :-)

Rather late to the party aren't you?

Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out.

I am also heavily bearish. Nevermind the TA - most of the liquidity in the Bitcoin economy has been killed off by the mega and very serious miners. All they doing is turning electricity into heat right now and flipping bitcoins for more hardware to stay in the race to the bottom. Time/Block is still around 8 minutes which means we are still at 11-12 day retargets so ~20% diff increases. The curve is not flattening .. till it does I don't see any reason for the price to recover. (Yes I am linking Diff to Price - in my opinion they are linked - although not directly or very predictably ). mt.gox disaster is not finished and neither is the Shrem and SR horseshit either.

PS: TA is like making toast and seeing Jesus .. all it takes is bread and a toaster and a propensity for seeing Jesus in everything because that all you are thinking about. Likewise with TA : just use the zoom button / or change time resolution and you will find a picture you like.

And before someone jumps on me and says " Well mining isn't everything in the Bitcoin economy " - no it isn't. But it's what drove it in the past.

EDIT: To be a bit melodramatic : I am actually rather depressed about it all - all the fun has been destroyed. Now it's just a super inconvenient way to pay for shit.

There's a smart part in your post (mining and price are linked, though not in the obvious way that some seem to think it is), and a not so smart part. Sure, technical analysis tends to see patterns where there are none, but that's not the same as saying it is entirely incapable of picking up changes in supply and demand that can be profitably used in your trading decisions.

Re: your mining argument. I agree, the "professional" miners are one of /the/ most defining elements of the Bitcoin price function right now, but I'm not sure if we see it as having the same effect. The concentration of mining means that there is substantially more OTC trading, and less on-exchange volume.

While both miners and those who buy from miners could in principle try to  manipulate the on-exchange price to get a deal off-exchange that is more to their liking, I will for simplicity assume that those attempts would largely even each other out (though in reality I think the buyers have the better chance at successful manipulation, because they are the "old" money, and presumably have both more experience and more funds in total).

But like I said, I'll assume that both sides try, but fail, to move price on-exchange in the direction they'd prefer (miners: up, buyers: down). But one fact remains untouched by this: trading volume and price are heavily correlated, and almost certainly causally linked. And since the entire premise was that OTC volume rises while on-exchange volume is dropping (proportionally), the effect of big OTC deals depresses the /public/ price, while the actual price that would emerge if volume were on exchange again is in fact higher.

tl;dr the tendency for miners to go professional means more off-exchange deals, which means that the actual demand for coins is higher than can be read off from the demand on the exchanges, which means: Bitcoin is (as a tendency) undervalued.

[int03h]

Did you buy back in Mat?

Nope.

Bought in at $460, sold at $520, anticipating an imminent correction and then I have to see things are looking from there.

.....and who said I am bearish?

Right now I am undecided on the longer term and am verging on undecided/bullish over the medium term. Obviously I was bullish enough to buy in at $460 and bullish enough to tell someone (sharkyshark) that shorting Bitcoin at $500 was a very bad idea.

Agree again.

[piramida]

EDIT: To be a bit melodramatic : I am actually rather depressed about it all - all the fun has been destroyed. Now it's just a super inconvenient way to pay for shit.

You are just sad that bitcoins amateur days are over. There are altcoins for you! Bitcoin, whether you like it or not, needs to grow, it can't be a garage pet project and rule the world at the same time.

[int03h]

So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't?  :-)

We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...

I am getting excited :-)

Rather late to the party aren't you?

Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out.

I am also heavily bearish. Nevermind the TA - most of the liquidity in the Bitcoin economy has been killed off by the mega and very serious miners. All they doing is turning electricity into heat right now and flipping bitcoins for more hardware to stay in the race to the bottom. Time/Block is still around 8 minutes which means we are still at 11-12 day retargets so ~20% diff increases. The curve is not flattening .. till it does I don't see any reason for the price to recover. (Yes I am linking Diff to Price - in my opinion they are linked - although not directly or very predictably ). mt.gox disaster is not finished and neither is the Shrem and SR horseshit either.

PS: TA is like making toast and seeing Jesus .. all it takes is bread and a toaster and a propensity for seeing Jesus in everything because that all you are thinking about. Likewise with TA : just use the zoom button / or change time resolution and you will find a picture you like.

And before someone jumps on me and says " Well mining isn't everything in the Bitcoin economy " - no it isn't. But it's what drove it in the past.

EDIT: To be a bit melodramatic : I am actually rather depressed about it all - all the fun has been destroyed. Now it's just a super inconvenient way to pay for shit.

There's a smart part in your post (mining and price are linked, though not in the obvious way that some seem to think it is), and a not so smart part. Sure, technical analysis tends to see patterns where there are none, but that's not the same as saying it is entirely incapable of picking up changes in supply and demand that can be profitably used in your trading decisions.

Re: your mining argument. I agree, the "professional" miners are one of /the/ most defining elements of the Bitcoin price function right now, but I'm not sure if we see it as having the same effect. The concentration of mining means that there is substantially more OTC trading, and less on-exchange volume.

While both miners and those who buy from miners could in principle try to  manipulate the on-exchange price to get a deal off-exchange that is more to their liking, I will for simplicity assume that those attempts would largely even each other out (though in reality I think the buyers have the better chance at successful manipulation, because they are the "old" money, and presumably have both more experience and more funds in total).

But like I said, I'll assume that both sides try, but fail, to move price on-exchange in the direction they'd prefer (miners: up, buyers: down). But one fact remains untouched by this: trading volume and price are heavily correlated, and almost certainly causally linked. And since the entire premise was that OTC volume rises while on-exchange volume is dropping (proportionally), the effect of big OTC deals depresses the /public/ price, while the actual price that would emerge if volume were on exchange again is in fact higher.

tl;dr the tendency for miners to go professional means more off-exchange deals, which means that the actual demand for coins is higher than can be read off from the demand on the exchanges, which means: Bitcoin is (as a tendency) undervalued.

RE: TA  I didn't say it's not helpful, I just said it is very very dependent on your state of mind when you are looking at the graphs - if one can remove all the emotion from your trading decisions then TA certainly is far more useful.

I agree with the rest of your observations.

[int03h]

EDIT: To be a bit melodramatic : I am actually rather depressed about it all - all the fun has been destroyed. Now it's just a super inconvenient way to pay for shit.

You are just sad that bitcoins amateur days are over. There are altcoins for you! Bitcoin, whether you like it or not, needs to grow, it can't be a garage pet project and rule the world at the same time.

Well.. then we need to quit moaning about price being what it is - and it being stalled.

[jcoin200]

Sell wall is getting smaller and smaller at Bitstamp, we could jump to $600 today

[piramida]

EDIT: To be a bit melodramatic : I am actually rather depressed about it all - all the fun has been destroyed. Now it's just a super inconvenient way to pay for shit.

You are just sad that bitcoins amateur days are over. There are altcoins for you! Bitcoin, whether you like it or not, needs to grow, it can't be a garage pet project and rule the world at the same time.

Well.. then we need to quit moaning about price being what it is - and it being stalled.

I don't see it being stalled, I find it to be very much alive. I don't see how anybody could moan about an asset which sits at $400 bottom for two months giving everyone a chance to buy, and then goes straight to 550 in two days.

[Elwar]

I don't see how anybody could moan about an asset which sits at $400 bottom for two months giving everyone a chance to buy, and then goes straight to 550 in two days.

The people who believed the bears who were saying it would go to $380?

I am only nervous about the rise because it is going up so quickly. But we have all been waiting for this so the quick jump is understandable.

[jcoin200]

I'm not all that worried about a quick rise. As long as the support stays there is nothing wrong with a quick rise. Seems like there might be something big in the works that is yet to be public news also. I'm not thinking about selling for the next few weeks, I think the next bull run has officially begun

[MatTheCat]

I'm not all that worried about a quick rise. As long as the support stays there is nothing wrong with a quick rise. Seems like there might be something big in the works that is yet to be public news also. I'm not thinking about selling for the next few weeks, I think the next bull run has officially begun

Sharp sudden rises followed by much longer staggered correction trends are symptomatic of bear market psychology and serve as a warning signal to traders.

Having said that, Bitcoin has now breached it's last remaining long term downtrend resistance line.

[cypherdoc]

I don't see how anybody could moan about an asset which sits at $400 bottom for two months giving everyone a chance to buy, and then goes straight to 550 in two days.

The people who believed the bears who were saying it would go to $380?

I am only nervous about the rise because it is going up so quickly. But we have all been waiting for this so the quick jump is understandable.

It's called a breakaway.

Very typical after a long bear phase. Bears get used to shorting the pops. That plus selling exhaustion and the tinder is set. The rapid rise allows the bulls to pull away quickly while the confused and stunned are frozen in their bear positions that worked repeatedly for months. Momentum traders have yet to scramble and get their money to the exchanges which will only cause a further rise later fueling even more positive feedback loops to come.

The news is spreading.

[hulk]

Anybody that understand chinese please go to huobi or some chinese bitcoin website and reply here please. Im sure its related to china again...

[cypherdoc]

That plus the short convering.

The McClellan Oscillator had damped down for several days before this indicating the trap was setting as volatility got very quiet.

That's precisely why I like to say Boom because that's what usually happens afterwards which in this case is the Breakaway.

[tuneman1980]

I'm not all that worried about a quick rise. As long as the support stays there is nothing wrong with a quick rise. Seems like there might be something big in the works that is yet to be public news also. I'm not thinking about selling for the next few weeks, I think the next bull run has officially begun

Sharp sudden rises followed by much longer staggered correction trends are symptomatic of bear market psychology and serve as a warning signal to traders.

Having said that, Bitcoin has now breached it's last remaining long term downtrend resistance line.

We're still below the long term price trend though.  Not even close to being in a bubble.  http://cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php

[roslinpl]

people who are telling Bitcoin is a bubble are wrong from a beginning.

I was waiting so long for a rally like this one! Already price looks very good and rally is not really stopping at the moment


Good luck to all of the racers