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Author Topic: Collapse or dollar= collapse of Rome= armagedon, but WHY!?  (Read 5722 times)
AnonyMint
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May 22, 2014, 12:51:50 AM
 #21

If Rome Collapse - then it didn't occur to the people who lived through it ~ historians regard the 'collapse' of Rome as having lasted 300+ years at a time when the life expectancy was in the 30s to 40s and after the collapse did occur general nutrition and living standards actually improved.

Rome itself didn't disappear - people continued to live within Rome itself and the 'Roman Empire' technically got bigger, if we regard the Roman Catholic Church as being the proper continuation of the Empire.

True collapses rarely occur in history - they're more like fades into obscurity and often whimpers at that.


Try telling that to the 1.4 million people the fled Rome because the Totalitarianism was so onerous. See following post I had made in the Mad Max thread:


But the world has never ended, not even once. Therefore your doomsday preaching makes you a fool.

For the people depicted below, this world ended. Yeah I know "it is different now", and every generation thought it was.











Europe now has universal health care ...[snip]...

...Eventually the cancer eats itself, because we run out of other people's money. Now the Americans are falling into the same cancer that razed Europe in the early 19th century, with a repeat underway.



Actually what happened is the capital shifted to the Byzantine or Eastern Roman empire:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/21/unions-out-of-control-the-real-poison-pill/




Maybe the one exception was the Soviet Union where the collapse was almost instantaneous to the American perspective, although the Soviet people themselves were well evident it was a dying institution at best.


Educate yourself about the collapse of the Soviet Union:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/18/the-us-did-not-cause-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union-that-is-a-false-belief-on-both-sides/

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May 22, 2014, 01:43:43 PM
 #22

Anonymint: you say the dollar wont collapse because the third world countries own inflation will force them to flee into the dollar. That is happening now.

But what happens when China and or Russia/BRICS back their own currency with gold? Even if they don't, there's a few big countries out there that can keep up their own currency threw establishing a copy of the dollar-system.


The similiarities with Romes decline and fall is obvious. The differences are not. Because of technology(Internet and to some extent bitcoin) currencies will fly from here to there in no-time. It won't be a 300 year decline. That was Rome, 2000 years ago. The great decline after that took 30 years. One after that about 3 years. This won't even take 3 months. Perhaps 3 days.

If China made a statement they'd buy Russian oil in ruble and export goods with CNY(Happened this week fyi) backed by gold and that India, Brasil and South africa + a few other countries was on board(happening right now in St. petersburg) the shit would truly hit the fan - for the FED and their dollar.


I love that we have a historic perspective here, but there is 1 more thing to have in mind:

Pulses. Conraction and expansion of circles. Time going faster and faster until it goes BOOOM and then going slower and slower. Big bang, basically.

When Rome failed it might have taken some 300 years for it to actually go from Great to Dead, but all events after that have decreased that time in an almost exact pattern.

I could go on, and would love to, but..

As always, I lose interest in writing. Someone pick up the torch, im out


/Guru
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May 23, 2014, 03:24:33 AM
Last edit: May 24, 2014, 10:28:10 AM by AnonyMint
 #23

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/22/historic-trade-deal-russia-china-will-this-dethrone-the-usd/

Backing their currencies with gold is irrelevant because their economies are turning down. All the capital inflow in the world can't make China's exports more profitable. China and Russia's problem is their top-down managed economies can't grow in real terms. China did mostly debt based pumped false growth. And Russia did oligarchy control over natural resources.

Oh yes it won't take 100s of years for these global bubble to collapse. The bottom of the collapse will be 2032 according the Armstrong's computer model (which has never been wrong).

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May 23, 2014, 03:58:00 AM
 #24

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Weary of irrational biases
From:    AnonyMint
Date:    Thu, May 22, 2014 11:53 pm
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <armstrongeconomics@gmail.com>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

This will probably be my last communication on these sort of debates,
because I can't convince someone who has an irrational bias and refuses to
be objective and based in fact and analysis.


http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/22/the-end-goal/

Quote from: Armstrong
REPLY: I would like to see something like that happen.
However, we must keep in mind that we require the crash and burn. Society
moves through waves of Creative Destruction. We must see the system
collapse and that will then set the stage for a rebirth. The object is to
be there when that happens. This will be the moment of truth. Society will
swing either toward more authoritarian or toward real democracy.

We need the true checks and balance of the people divorced from career
politicians. Eliminating direct taxation will eliminate the corruption and
lobbying of politicians to carve out exclusions. Republics are the WORST
form of government for they ALWAYS become the most corrupt. Even a king is
better for he is either a madman or a saint – he cannot be bribed on the
whims of people or chance.

Eliminating direct taxation, which the founders of the US did originally,
it will eliminate the need to hoard cash offshore. Eliminate direct
taxation and you will lower the cost of labor. Eliminate unions that serve
no functional purpose and only promotes higher wages without improving
skills. To get ahead, people have to keep pace with technology or be
outdated in the workforce watching their labor value depreciate. If people
understand the technology cycle they will grasp the idea that they must
increase their value by expanding their skills.

You've observed history and seen that never once has any political system
been stable and they always devolve to Totalitarianism at the end game.
Yet you still come back for more sloppy seconds, thirds, and Nths.

You've observed history and seen that the technologies for global control
and the level of global control have radically increased. Yet you deny the
global hegemony that will result from your idealistic delusion above.

You've observed history and seen that the only escape and freedom has ever
come in the form of a frontier where the oppressed can compete against the
cancer and thus survival of the human race.

Yet now you say we can just burn without a frontier and reform.

You've fucking lost your mind.

Most people will masturbate like this, because they don't have the skills
to work on the information technology frontier so as to provide real
solutions.

You are too vested in the old school, in idealism about political
structure and top-down planning and organization.

You will be swept away by decentralization technology.

End.



http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/22/the-age-of-disinformation-hiding-truth-in-plain-sight/

Quote from: Armstrong
This is standard operational procedure and it is why I am
very skeptical about conspiracy theories. Trace the origins and you will
find that they are generated as part of a plot to hide in plain view the
truth. Take 911. There are now people who claim that there were no planes
at all and it was all staged.

...

So how do you cover-up what is in plain sight? The oldest trick in the
book is disinformation. You create the controversy centered around the
Twin Towers and exaggerate the claims. The majority will begin to see
through the exaggerations as a conspiracy theory and stop there never
looking further.

Indeed, the truth is in detailed analysis of the material facts rather
than broad-brushed generalizations such as when you Martin refuse to
analyze and accept the detailed factual analysis of the likes of Anthony
Sutton on the existence and manipulations funded by the globalists.

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May 23, 2014, 05:00:57 AM
 #25

Anonymint: you say the dollar wont collapse because the third world countries own inflation will force them to flee into the dollar. That is happening now.

But what happens when China and or Russia/BRICS back their own currency with gold? Even if they don't, there's a few big countries out there that can keep up their own currency threw establishing a copy of the dollar-system.


The similiarities with Romes decline and fall is obvious. The differences are not. Because of technology(Internet and to some extent bitcoin) currencies will fly from here to there in no-time. It won't be a 300 year decline. That was Rome, 2000 years ago. The great decline after that took 30 years. One after that about 3 years. This won't even take 3 months. Perhaps 3 days.

If China made a statement they'd buy Russian oil in ruble and export goods with CNY(Happened this week fyi) backed by gold and that India, Brasil and South africa + a few other countries was on board(happening right now in St. petersburg) the shit would truly hit the fan - for the FED and their dollar.


I love that we have a historic perspective here, but there is 1 more thing to have in mind:

Pulses. Conraction and expansion of circles. Time going faster and faster until it goes BOOOM and then going slower and slower. Big bang, basically.

When Rome failed it might have taken some 300 years for it to actually go from Great to Dead, but all events after that have decreased that time in an almost exact pattern.

I could go on, and would love to, but..

As always, I lose interest in writing. Someone pick up the torch, im out


/Guru

The current China/Russia mess will definitely affect a lot of things in the US. The decline of the dollar just sped up dramatically. We will see it at the gas pump first.

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May 23, 2014, 12:25:47 PM
 #26

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Weary of irrational biases
From:    AnonyMint
Date:    Thu, May 22, 2014 11:53 pm
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <armstrongeconomics@gmail.com>

I don't understand your posts.

What, specifically, is your disagreement with Armstrong?

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May 23, 2014, 01:22:41 PM
 #27

The economy nowadays is more global than ever.

The dollar is the major currency used worldwide in trade, even if for example France wants to buy something from Japan, they will not use Euros nor Yen, they'll use dollars.

If when the dollar collapses, the whole world will feel the pain.

Also, many banks and governments have huge amounts of dollars or dollar-denominated bonds and security and other financial assets that are directly tied to the dollar. And not to mention when the dollar collapses, wall street will too. 

Also, the USA is by far the biggest importer of pretty much everything, but all they really export is dollars. In other words they are pretty much pumping (worthless) dollars in the world economy while they buy all the goods. When the dollar loses it's value (and it will as many countries are finally seeing the scam for what it is), most industries will not be able to sell their products anymore, since the USA will not be able to afford it anymore, which will trigger a domino-effect much bigger than the housing bubble (which also started in the USA and had a big influence on the whole world).

The world will have to rely on barter for a short while and will quickly turn to what it knew worked in the past, which is gold and silver.



I agree except for your last sentence. It is when something the human race never had before, technology, comes in and saves the day.

It is clear why traditional gold and silver were valuable going back for thousands of years, but I am not sure if there will be a run on it again.  It just isn't that useful in my daily life.  Yes, it is scarce, and it is pretty, and it has a few industrial resources, but aside from that, I don't really need to have gold or silver laying around my house, and even if I did, I wouldn't use them often.  To me, what is valuable is electricity, internet, food, water.  And something else is very important.  That is oil.  To me, oil is far more important to the economy than gold.  I can put gas in my car and use it to drive to work.  What will I do if I have a gold bar at my house?  Hope somebody will buy it from me?  I think we live in a new age.  During the dark ages in Europe, it was pretty cool to have some gold.  Today, it is pretty cool to have some electricity, oil, and 4g.  A different age, and people will value different things. 

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May 23, 2014, 03:34:59 PM
 #28

The economy nowadays is more global than ever.

The dollar is the major currency used worldwide in trade, even if for example France wants to buy something from Japan, they will not use Euros nor Yen, they'll use dollars.

If when the dollar collapses, the whole world will feel the pain.

Also, many banks and governments have huge amounts of dollars or dollar-denominated bonds and security and other financial assets that are directly tied to the dollar. And not to mention when the dollar collapses, wall street will too. 

Also, the USA is by far the biggest importer of pretty much everything, but all they really export is dollars. In other words they are pretty much pumping (worthless) dollars in the world economy while they buy all the goods. When the dollar loses it's value (and it will as many countries are finally seeing the scam for what it is), most industries will not be able to sell their products anymore, since the USA will not be able to afford it anymore, which will trigger a domino-effect much bigger than the housing bubble (which also started in the USA and had a big influence on the whole world).

The world will have to rely on barter for a short while and will quickly turn to what it knew worked in the past, which is gold and silver.



I agree except for your last sentence. It is when something the human race never had before, technology, comes in and saves the day.

It is clear why traditional gold and silver were valuable going back for thousands of years, but I am not sure if there will be a run on it again.  It just isn't that useful in my daily life.  Yes, it is scarce, and it is pretty, and it has a few industrial resources, but aside from that, I don't really need to have gold or silver laying around my house, and even if I did, I wouldn't use them often.  To me, what is valuable is electricity, internet, food, water.  And something else is very important.  That is oil.  To me, oil is far more important to the economy than gold.  I can put gas in my car and use it to drive to work.  What will I do if I have a gold bar at my house?  Hope somebody will buy it from me?  I think we live in a new age.  During the dark ages in Europe, it was pretty cool to have some gold.  Today, it is pretty cool to have some electricity, oil, and 4g.  A different age, and people will value different things. 

You cannot easily trade physical gold/silver...obvious right?  There has to be something else...something controlled, something scarce, something people agree is valuable...oh wait   Cool Cool Cool
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May 23, 2014, 06:03:38 PM
 #29

I have been reading about the collapse of dollar for several months and know that the issue is a years or even dozen of years old topic. I dont think i fully understand it but im quite leaning on the side that the collapse will happen, but even if i have a hard time believing the total apocalypse some of the people are portaing it to be... (like "the biggest event in human history" (this is the stupidest phrase i have heard so far).

Can someone concretely eplain to others WHY should the collapse of dollar mean a depression bigger then the one in 1930?

Simple quick points, because i dont see it...?


High dependency on oil and foreign good is the reason why people should worry.

Katrina disaster is a good model to see what will happen when shtf.
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May 23, 2014, 07:53:33 PM
 #30

I have no idea why Anonymint quoted me because he didn't adress anything of what I said.


Quote
The current China/Russia mess will definitely affect a lot of things in the US. The decline of the dollar just sped up dramatically. We will see it at the gas pump first

Yeah definately. I just read a news article in one of the most read swedish newspapers that the oil price will rise. They claimed it was because of summer and that it always does because of higher demand. Yet I got the feeling they hinted on it being more than the regular.

I would guess this is why they are in Nigeria now aswell. Africom just deployed some 3000 troops in there this week I think. Actually it seems like the whole of africa and not only nigeria. Nigeria is nr 2 economy in AFrica btw, after South Africa(which is the S in bricS).

The pawns are being pushed out to the front at all sides, interesting times.
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May 23, 2014, 07:56:46 PM
 #31

Quote
You cannot easily trade physical gold/silver...obvious right?  There has to be something else...something controlled, something scarce, something people agree is valuable...oh wait   Cool Cool Cool

Yeah what could that be  Grin BTC will skyrocket multiple times for so many reasons its redicilous.

@Jabo: Yes, gold/silver is not valuable for usage. But compared to internet and electricity it's rather good as a store of value. And most people actually value being able to store value Wink


But yeah, i'd store food for at least 1 year(if I had a house) before i'd buy gold.
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May 24, 2014, 12:54:19 AM
 #32

One year supply of food would be worth more than a bag full of gold if something bad really did happen. A bag full of medicine would be worth all the food a person had. And I still think a couple barrels of gasoline would still be worth more than a bar of gold. The problems with food, medicine, and gasoline is they are are somewhat perishable. Gold isn't. But I really think the culture trend to value gold came out of a different age and culture. Back then gold wasn't competing with a couple of barrels of gasoline, a years worth of MREs, or a bag full of penicillin, morphine, and Tylenol. Had those things existed back then, I think the narrative surrounding gold today would be different. Always looking towards the past can help definitely understand the future, until it doesn't.  The reason why the future is different is because some key factors have changed.

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May 24, 2014, 01:03:04 AM
 #33

I really think if there is a major crisis that bitcoin stands a better chance than gold. Gold was traditionally valuable because it was #1 pretty, #2 scarce, #3 non perishable.

Bitcoin has the second and third qualities. I'd argue it has the first too. It's beauty is in it's math and decentralization. It is a beautiful idea. Everyone on this forum is very likely here because they are attracted to its beauty.

Maybe somebody will argue the "what if we lose electricity and Internet?" argument. If the world slips that far down, gold won't be valuable either. That's when we value food, water, medicine, and guns.

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May 24, 2014, 05:31:11 AM
 #34

Survival skills will be paramount as well if things go down hill fast. I always joke that if it does happen I am going to go stay with my hillbilly relatives who can hunt and cook just about anything that moves.

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May 24, 2014, 09:26:37 AM
 #35

I have no idea why Anonymint quoted me because he didn't adress anything of what I said.

I didn't quote you, but I did address what you wrote:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615062.msg6886606#msg6886606


Quote
The current China/Russia mess will definitely affect a lot of things in the US. The decline of the dollar just sped up dramatically. We will see it at the gas pump first

Yeah definately.

Relative to other fiat currencies, the dollar will get stronger over the next several years. For example, China's latest bond auction failed. The rest of the world will collapse sending capital flowing into the dollar. The USA still has the most powerful military (they are suckering Putin into taking on conflicts that will bankrupt Russia, it wasn't a lack of military capability rather he was intentionally forced him into Ukraine by toppling his government in Ukraine).

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May 24, 2014, 09:31:00 AM
 #36

Maybe somebody will argue the "what if we lose electricity and Internet?" argument. If the world slips that far down, gold won't be valuable either. That's when we value food, water, medicine, and guns.

Gold fills the void between functioning society and Mad max. In the former crypto-currency is money, and in the latter only food is money. Gold is money in between the two in times of crisis.

Once we have more individual market makers trading bullion for crypto-currency on decentralized exchanges, then bullion will regain is transportability by wire via crypto-currency. The two are synergistic.

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May 24, 2014, 09:41:59 AM
 #37

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Weary of irrational biases
From:    AnonyMint
Date:    Thu, May 22, 2014 11:53 pm
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <armstrongeconomics@gmail.com>

I don't understand your posts.

What, specifically, is your disagreement with Armstrong?

Go to the end of the Dark Enlightenment and Max Max threads in the Politics & Society forum for more history on my debate with him. Also the thread on designing a perfect society.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg6567660#msg6567660

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=616197.msg6889554#msg6889554

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg6496672#msg6496672


Armstrong thinks we can reform politics. I am saying politics always ends up in Totalitarianism. The only thing that has saved mankind every time is a frontier. Before it was geographical escape (e.g. birth of the U.S.A.) and cash (e.g. gold), but now those frontiers are being closed. So we only have crypto-currency (and internet businesses perhaps even anonymously, e.g. programming work,  to escape Totalitarianism) remaining as a frontier.

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May 24, 2014, 11:38:51 AM
 #38

I have no idea why Anonymint quoted me because he didn't adress anything of what I said.

I didn't quote you, but I did address what you wrote:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615062.msg6886606#msg6886606


Quote
The current China/Russia mess will definitely affect a lot of things in the US. The decline of the dollar just sped up dramatically. We will see it at the gas pump first

Yeah definately.

Relative to other fiat currencies, the dollar will get stronger over the next several years. For example, China's latest bond auction failed. The rest of the world will collapse sending capital flowing into the dollar. The USA still has the most powerful military (they are suckering Putin into taking on conflicts that will bankrupt Russia, it wasn't a lack of military capability rather he was intentionally forced him into Ukraine by toppling his government in Ukraine).

Yeah must have gotten that quoting wrong, sorry mate.


But you are missing my point. What you're describing has already happened but sure its ofcourse still happening but there is much now that points to this being changed perhaps this year. The QE3 is supposedly over 100 billion a month yet nobody knows because the FED is private, that's there to push down the price of the dollar. Ofcourse the other fiat currencies of the world will fall first, but after they've collapsed only the dollar will be left. The rest of the world had this couch called the dollar to fall back on, so to say, the USA won't have anything, their fall will go to rock bottom... sucks for the americans that don't know about bitcoin, because that won't save many people. I think this USD-e will go not to the moon but to another galaxy. Imagine the millions of patriots learning about Bitcoin. "Hmm, what to choose.. something american or something thats not". Anyway, drifting off topic, ill take some time later to read threw the mad max post..
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May 24, 2014, 05:25:29 PM
 #39

The economy nowadays is more global than ever.
....
The world will have to rely on barter for a short while and will quickly turn to what it knew worked in the past, which is gold and silver.



Store food and water.. they will be worth their weight in silver.
I have a deal for you.

I will sell food and water now for 1/10 their weight in silver.

You can make ten times your investment when the collapse comes!

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May 24, 2014, 05:27:04 PM
 #40

.....
Armstrong thinks we can reform politics. I am saying politics always ends up in Totalitarianism. The only thing that has saved mankind every time is a frontier. Before it was geographical escape (e.g. birth of the U.S.A.) and cash (e.g. gold), but now those frontiers are being closed. So we only have crypto-currency (and internet businesses perhaps even anonymously, e.g. programming work,  to escape Totalitarianism) remaining as a frontier.
Bump.

Although the frontiers appear to be appearing more and more rapidly, exponential rates of change of course.
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